Realistic Passing yardage expectations this year

[BearDownZZ]

Cutler and McCown combined for 4281 yards last year, so its certainly not out of the question to say that if Cutler played all 16 games, he should throw for 4000 yards easily. 4500 is a fair number.

Anything over 4500 can actually be scary because it tends to mean that your defense stunk and you had to pass heavy in the 4th quarter. Brees has shown he can easily throw for 5000 yards. But when they won the super bowl in 2009 it was their best rushing offense. They ran for 2100 yards on a 4.5 ypc. They also had their best defense that year. Brees threw for 4355 yards that season.

Of course, 5000 yards is fine with me if we are doing everything right and just murdering everyone like the Broncos did last year. But that isn't realistic.

 

[Schmidtaki]

I'm going to win this prediction.

I say he hits 5,000 because we can, and because Forte will miss some games, and because our defense can get the ball back this year.

thank you, Cassandra.

I'm with you Rask, he is going to have a record breaking season.

 

[Penny Traitor]

Cutler,if he starts every single game will throw for around 3,600 to 3,800 yards and 28 TDs. Rarely has Cutler thrown for multiple TDs in multiple games so I'll use as my starting base line. Add to it that most of Jeffery's yards came after Josh McCown realized he was a weapon and Cutler was still lock on Larry with Marshall. Cutler won't be changing of his habits this year.

You had me until right there.

I am not talking massive transformation, but in a second year with the same group of guys...he will spread the ball around more than his has since Marshall's arrival.

Year two with Martz and mostly the same offense saw the same thing before he would be lost for the season.

He is still going to make some plays that make you want to smack him with a pool cue.

He is still gonna have those third down plays where he holds that rock for seven years.

He is still gonna throw off his backfoot on the run making our gigantic receivers have to leap another twelve feet in the air to have a shot at it.

....but he will spread the wealth....


(...at or career best completion percentage...)

 

[airtime143]

This is the year that the Bears finally get a 4000 yard passer in a season and a 30 touchdown season.

Sure- that would be a record for the bears in both categories... but it would just be cracking the top 25% of the league based on last years NFL production. Screw the bears single season records for offense... they are unacceptably poor in comparison to todays NFL.


The talent in place and the aggressive nature of this offense should be able to pull off better than-
4000+ passing yards (14th in the league)
30+ tds (8th in the league)
Better than a 2-1 td to int ratio (13 teams did so last year)
Better than 1800+ total yards rushing (bears were at 16th past year with 1828)
16 rushing touchdowns (which would put the bears just within the top 10 based on last year)


Anything less will be alarming.

 

[BearFanJohn]

I think if Cutler doesn't have a record something has gone horribly wrong. Given the weapons and the coaching he has at his disposal he should break a bunch of Bears records this year. Whether its 4000, 45000, 5000 yards who knows?

 

[KittiesKorner]

I don't think he will hit 45,000.

call me a hater

 

[dabears253313]

Four thousand three hunna passing yards for Jay Cutler.

 

[Ares]

I don't think he will hit 45,000.

call me a hater

#Negged4Hatin'

 

[Sagbear]

Four thousand three hunna passing yards for Jay Cutler.

four thousand three hunna nd fiddy passing yards*

 

[BearsFan51]

Cutler and McCown combined for 4281 yards last year, so its certainly not out of the question to say that if Cutler played all 16 games, he should throw for 4000 yards easily. 4500 is a fair number.

Anything over 4500 can actually be scary because it tends to mean that your defense stunk and you had to pass heavy in the 4th quarter. Brees has shown he can easily throw for 5000 yards. But when they won the super bowl in 2009 it was their best rushing offense. They ran for 2100 yards on a 4.5 ypc. They also had their best defense that year. Brees threw for 4355 yards that season.

Of course, 5000 yards is fine with me if we are doing everything right and just murdering everyone like the Broncos did last year. But that isn't realistic.

Cutler averaged 238.8 yards per game last year his highest total in his Bears career. Had he averaged that over 16 games he would have finished with just over 3,800 yards.

To get to this mythological 4,500 yard plateau Cutler would have to average 281.0 yards per game. I don't for one second think Cutler will get anywhere near that. Given the entirety of his career there's no way in hell Cutler will come close to that. He did it once in his career playing from behind in most of those games which led to the asinine trade to bring him to Chicago in the first place. But beyond yards passing Cutler has never even come close to being consistent enough.

Why so many a cutler lovers visualize him as this model,of,consistency enough to obtain a high level of production is baffling to me.

 

[KittiesKorner]

and enraging (and probably engorging), apparently

 

[PrideisBears]

Im trying to figure out why anyone wants cutler throwing for more than 3500 yards anyways? Stafford dies this every year and has shit to show for it

 

[ruprecht]

and enraging (and probably engorging), apparently

Downright tumescent.

 

[chefbear65]

It is no coincidence that we had two thousand yard receivers the same season we had a historically bad defense.

Trestman still seams like a pass first guy, but would relish being able to play more ball control offense late in the games because our defense won't let the opposing offense anywhere near our 17 point lead.

Let's say we get up to about 18th overall on D.

Marshall = 1220
Jeffrey = 950
Wilson = 430
Bennett = 640
Forte/Rookie = 700

That's about 3950 passing yards for the season.

While I agree that an improved D could end up lowering yardage totals, it could also improve them. The offense is always less predictable, and therefore more capable to produce yards, in games that are close or they are winning in. The big thing for me is they ranked 20th it total snaps on offense last season so unless Trestman starts getting ultra conservative with his leads, I think offense has just as good of a shot to improve in both pass and rush yardage.

Its not like you can say much of last year was done in garbage time, most late game scores felt meaningful. Cept the damn philly game, pulling the starters ended up losing me my fantasy championship. Drafted both Marshall and Jeffrey and traded for forte after the first few weeks too. Lost by one damn point in a ppr league.

Couldn't leave the starters in for one more series for me? Lol

 

[chefbear65]

Im trying to figure out why anyone wants cutler throwing for more than 3500 yards anyways? Stafford dies this every year and has shit to show for it

Because the list of decent QBs off the top of my head from last season with below 3500 pass yards and 16 starts is two deep. Both of them had top 5 rushing attacks/defenses and both are top 5 running QBs.

The Chicago bears will in all likelihood finish outside the top 5 in defense and rushing next season and I assure you Cutler won't be adding anything like Kaep and Wilson with his feet. So if cutler doesn't top 3,500 yards we might not be very happy campers this season.

 

[dabears253313]

four thousand three hunna nd fiddy passing yards*

Loch ness monster I ain't giving you no tree fiddy!

I was referencing Chief Keef lol

 

[gpphat]

In a thread about Dez Bryant and the NFL Network/Espn uber love towards him and his 'favorited' ilk, I started thinking about our realistic prospects this year, IF all stay healthy.

Pretending that healthy is even a possibility, with probable minor injuries notwithstanding... I think these numbers are fair...

Marshall 1400 yards

Jeffery 1300 yards

Both simple and slight upgrades/downgrades (respectively) from last year... I honestly think that both or either could / should surpass those numbers if Cutler stays relatively healthy and the system continues to function.

Now, Forte... let's give him a fair 400 receiving (1100 rushing works -- rounding to 1500 solid year...earning him, of course, 94th on the top 100 and more Schwartzanegger 'ridiculous' impersonations.

Bennett... if he is to be the monster he should continue to be, let's slap 700 in there... that's a slight drop from last year, but...

Well, this is my point...

There's a lot of talk about Wilson... and so, our expectations for a solid third receiver on the rise... what 600?

The other three (?) that we keep, conservatively, 150 yards each? 450...

Umm... Other RBs, Fullbacks (God, bring back Suhey) and TEs... what 200? Seems fair.

Let's get the calculator out. Um... this 'conservative' estimate puts us over 5000 yards offence. And it is conservative.

My question to you all is... will we be satisfied with that? Or Less or more, or how do we handle these expectations and how realistic they are or are not given our strength of schedule.

This, above, frankly, fills me with excitement and trepidation at the exact same times.

What is possible this year?

In my opinion, yardage doesn't mean dick if the QB is turning over the ball...5000 yards would be great but if he is thowing 25+ int's then chances are a lot of those yards are happening because they are playing from behind. I would much rather see 3500+ yards with 10 int's than 5000 yards with 25 int's. I may be in the minority here but that's my personal opinion.

 

[mac bear]

I'm trying to understand why 5000 yards would make anyone on here happy... 5000 yards would be the 29th ranked team (based on last year) and about 1300 yards less than the team put up in 2013.

5000 passing... slap the 1500 rushing and we're at 6500... you see?

 

[Hbkrusso]

jay throws for round 4k 30 tds and we win the superbowl ...

 

[gwharris2254]

I think finally Cutler has enough time and confidence to be deceptive out there instead of tunnel-visioned and he stunningly gets the ball out equally to his three wideouts and equally to his TE and RB. If he really has those better body mechanics people are ravin about this year, I can see him still getting that ball out quickly but with equal distribution.
I think his TD to INT ration might approach 3:1 and be at 2.5:1 for sure with 4300 yards EZ.....might even approach the 100 QBR mark also.
The running game is going to improve this year and that's going to help the Passing game out alot.

-----And remember people with an improved Defense the O is going to get the ball back more often and rack up more stats.-----