Report: Poles ‘gut’ told him not to trade twice in top ten of 2023 draft

Nelly

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This is the worst click bait headline I've seen in a while. At no point does he say he turned down an offer. He said there were talks, but when Carolina included Moore he said his gut told him to accept the deal instead of waiting on Houston. He also said in his conference that he wasn't sure if Carolina would continue to offer Moore if he waited. Leave it to dumb ass Bears fans to take it out of context to fit their narrative...especially on this website.
Exactly. At one point he thought he might be able to to pull it off but didn't want to play fast and loose. We'll never know what could have happened if he had waited so there's no point in speculating that he made the wrong move or not.
 

Moses Moreno

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Not that I give a rat's ass about Vegas odds on anything, but you're missing the forest for the trees if you are thinking in terms of chances of winning a Super Bowl. Its really about the odds each team has of winning their division, and Carolina is by far and away the best bet to win their division of these three teams. Cleveland has to get through Cincinnati and Houston through Jacksonville, the Panthers have to get past...uh...the Tom Brady-less Buccaneers?

The disaster potential in Cleveland is pretty alluring. They could easily unravel completely and provide a top five pick next year. I don't think Houston or Carolina really has that.

Saints are the obvious favorites to win that division.

Again, Carolina would have a better chance at winning the division if DJ Moore was on their roster.

Dalton has already delivered a top overall pick in the past 4 seasons and back to back top 10 picks with NOLA and us. Their weapons are absolute trash and Reich hasn't proven himself to be much more than an older, not bald Matt Nagy thus far. Carolina had momentum because of their interim HC and their defense is in flux while their offense lacks real NFL weapons. They can absolutely bottom out next year.
 

Nelly

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I would've loved to hedge our bet on 2 different teams so we could have two cracks at praying on some other team's downfall, but I'm not disappointed in the least. I get his logic, and getting Moore in the deal helps your QB right now.
That's the key. I don't like this deal nearly much as i do without Moore added. Getting first-rounders the next two years would be cool but getting a legit #1 right away on a cheap deal compared to other #1's is a real coup on Poles' part, while also getting a future 1st and second no less.
 

napo55

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The trade with Carolina made sense in a lot of ways. Maybe the most important was getting a very accomplished veteran receiver. The alternative meant possibly having to draft a WR with a high pick, losing out on the chance to draft OL or DL with the pick, and having to wait a year or so until the rookie WR figured out the NFL. JF needs offensive playmakers asap and Moore fits the bill.

Now, the question will be how Poles manages the draft. Can he ID talent? We will find out.

Interesting that some people think Poles can do no wrong and some think he's always wrong. The story remains to be written...
 

JordanSigler

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Exactly. At one point he thought he might be able to to pull it off but didn't want to play fast and loose. We'll never know what could have happened if he had waited so there's no point in speculating that he made the wrong move or not.
“There were some other opportunities, some hopping around to go from one to two, two to nine, that would have been pretty cool,” Poles says. “The thing was, instead of being greedy and trying to do all kinds of fancy things, I felt like, when we hit a certain point, I was satisfied.”

Yep. Can’t be too greedy
 

bamainatlanta

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I really didn’t want to read this thread because by now I know what to expect….

But watching @Montucky go full Monfucky was worth it.
Montucky always has the worst takes on here. When I want to read some idiocy, I go to his posts. This is not an insult, it’s just a fact of life. Reminds me of the poster Mongo76
 

vabearsfan15

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Ok based on what. What trade(s) are you comparing it to?

I judge the trade by the fact that the Bears had all the leverage. Multiple teams were interested. It was simply a bidding war. Then you take into account how much teams were paying mediocre QBs, it likely heightened team's desire to go the rookie route.

If you want a true comparison though, look at what the Dolphins received from the 49ers two years ago. And in that case teams were bidding for the 3rd best QB, not the 1st. Dolphins didn't hold as much leverage as we did.

Dolphins:

2021 First Round Pick - #12 Overall
2021 3rd rd Comp Pick- #102 Overall
2022 1st Rd Pick
2023 1st Rd Pick


Bears:

2023 First Rd Pick - #9 overall
2023 2nd Rd Pick - #61 overall
2024 First Rd Pick
2025 2nd Rd Pick
DJ Moore


Alot of how you look at the two deals is dependent on how you view DJ Moore. I think valuing him as a 1st rounder is fair. Tyreek Hill and AJ Brown were traded for 1st rd picks.

So when comparing those two deals, who did the better job for their franchise? I think the Dolphins GM did a great job in squeezing out compensation. On the other hand, Poles did an OK job. I didn't say it was bad. Just didn't blow me away.
 
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dennehy

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I judge the trade by the fact that the Bears had all the leverage. Multiple teams were interested. It was simply a bidding war. Then you take into account how much teams were paying mediocre QBs, it likely heightened team's desire to go the rookie route.

If you want a true comparison though, look at what the Dolphins received from the 49ers two years ago. And in that case teams were bidding for the 3rd best QB, not the 1st. Dolphins didn't hold as much leverage as we did.

Dolphins:

2021 First Round Pick - #12 Overall
2021 3rd rd Comp Pick- #102 Overall
2022 1st Rd Pick
2023 1st Rd Pick


Bears:

2023 First Rd Pick - #9 overall
2024 First Rd Pick
2025 2nd Rd Pick
DJ Moore


Alot of how you look at the two deals is dependent on how you view DJ Moore. I think valuing him as a 1st rounder is fair. Tyreek Hill and AJ Brown were traded for 1st rd picks.

So when comparing those two deals, who did the better job for their franchise? I think the Dolphins GM did a great job in squeezing out compensation. On the other hand, Poles did an OK job. I didn't say it was bad. Just didn't blow me away.
The Bears also got a second rounder in 2023. So if you value Moore as a first, the Dolphins got 3 firsts and a third and the Bears got 3 firsts and 2 seconds.

On the points chart, the difference between #9 and #12 is a bit more than #102, and the two seconds are a bit less than the difference between #1 and #3.

Overall the trades are very equal, and because the Bears get Moore now and not a first two years from now, hard to say the Dolphins got a better deal imo.
 
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vabearsfan15

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The Bears also got a second rounder in 2023. So if you value Moore as a first, the Dolphins got 3 firsts and a third and the Bears got 3 firsts and 2 seconds.
Ok. Edited to fix my mistake.

I will also add in Poles favor that getting DJ Moore is like receiving current mid 1st rd pick since we get him now.

With that said, it still seems like a fair deal for both sides. It is the #1 overall pick afterall. The expectation was always going to start at getting a 1st and 2nd this year and next. And that was what I expected Colts to start off offering.
 

Montucky

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Just when I thought this guy couldn’t be any more stupid.
If you're looking for future firsts I'm looking for either truly dreadful or high disaster potential. The first is sometimes foreseeable on paper, but the Texans are not quite that bad anymore. They can certainly run the ball and the defense is getting better. DeMeco Ryans was a great hire and its a shitty division. If they were in the AFC West or NFC West I'd agree that the Texans 2024 first is gold, but they could get seven or so wins in that putrid divsion without too much effort.

Disaster potential is the chance a complete unraveling has an otherwise contender-tier team win like four games in humiliating fashion. The Rams did it last year. It happens pretty regularly in the league, and its usually from the same cast of characters. The Browns have very high disaster potential to have one or two things go wrong then totally self detonate and basically quit on the season. The tough divsion is a bonus too.

So yeah, are the Browns probably better than the Texans? Sure. But are the Texans more likely to get you a top five pick next year? Perhaps not, paradoxically.
 

bamainatlanta

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I judge the trade by the fact that the Bears had all the leverage. Multiple teams were interested. It was simply a bidding war. Then you take into account how much teams were paying mediocre QBs, it likely heightened team's desire to go the rookie route.

If you want a true comparison though, look at what the Dolphins received from the 49ers two years ago. And in that case teams were bidding for the 3rd best QB, not the 1st. Dolphins didn't hold as much leverage as we did.

Dolphins:

2021 First Round Pick - #12 Overall
2021 3rd rd Comp Pick- #102 Overall
2022 1st Rd Pick
2023 1st Rd Pick


Bears:

2023 First Rd Pick - #9 overall
2023 First Rd Pick - #61 overall
2024 First Rd Pick
2025 2nd Rd Pick
DJ Moore


Alot of how you look at the two deals is dependent on how you view DJ Moore. I think valuing him as a 1st rounder is fair. Tyreek Hill and AJ Brown were traded for 1st rd picks.

So when comparing those two deals, who did the better job for their franchise? I think the Dolphins GM did a great job in squeezing out compensation. On the other hand, Poles did an OK job. I didn't say it was bad. Just didn't blow me away.

Except it was obvious the Niners were going to be picking late in the 1st. Good thing no one gives a shit about how you didn’t get “blown” away.
 

remydat

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I judge the trade by the fact that the Bears had all the leverage. Multiple teams were interested. It was simply a bidding war. Then you take into account how much teams were paying mediocre QBs, it likely heightened team's desire to go the rookie route.

If you want a true comparison though, look at what the Dolphins received from the 49ers two years ago. And in that case teams were bidding for the 3rd best QB, not the 1st. Dolphins didn't hold as much leverage as we did.

Dolphins:

2021 First Round Pick - #12 Overall
2021 3rd rd Comp Pick- #102 Overall
2022 1st Rd Pick
2023 1st Rd Pick


Bears:

2023 First Rd Pick - #9 overall
2023 First Rd Pick - #61 overall
2024 First Rd Pick
2025 2nd Rd Pick
DJ Moore


Alot of how you look at the two deals is dependent on how you view DJ Moore. I think valuing him as a 1st rounder is fair. Tyreek Hill and AJ Brown were traded for 1st rd picks.

So when comparing those two deals, who did the better job for their franchise? I think the Dolphins GM did a great job in squeezing out compensation. On the other hand, Poles did an OK job. I didn't say it was bad. Just didn't blow me away.
Dolphins: (3rd pick is 2200 points)

2021 First Round Pick - #12 Overall - 1200 points
2021 3rd rd Comp Pick- #102 Overall - 92 points
2022 1st Rd Pick - 500 points (discounted as 2nd round pick)
2023 1st Rd Pick - 500 points (discounted as 2nd round pick)
Total Value = 2292 points


Bears: (1st pick is 3000 points)

2023 First Rd Pick - #9 overall - 1350 points
2023 First Rd Pick - #61 overall - 292 points
2024 First Rd Pick - 500 points
2025 2nd Rd Pick - 230 points (discounted as 3rd round pick)
DJ Moore - 1000 points (mid first round pick value as GB who picks 15th offered 1st rounder)
Total Value = 3,372 points

So looking at both trades the Dolphins essentially got a 3rd round pick in excess value ie 92 points. The Bears by contrast got the equivalent of pick 53 (ie 2nd round) in excess value ie 372 points.
 

Myk

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What a load of crap and you said lack of hype from the combine, not who didn't show which was well known before hand. Combine only strengthened these QBs' draft position, period.

"I figured it had to do with the lack of super hype out of the combine and expectations that the hype was peaked."

That seems to be your problem most of the time. You half ass the reading and then add whatever you want to it.
Had you actually read the conversation before you never would've stuck up for the person suggesting we'd get over a high 2nd less for the #1 than it is valued.

I'm sure if Houston was calling offering 2 firsts this year and a future first Poles would've jumped on that. Just the #2 and #12 was worth 800 over value so that wasn't happening except in the minds of delusional Bears fans (and they were actually calling for even more). Contrary to what you and others from that group think picks actually do have defined values.
Every time someone comes up with "what this trade?" I run it through a chart and it comes out to not be that far off.
The only way a trade with be way over is if it's for a special player and there's a bidding war. And way under just wouldn't make sense with the rookie contracts the way they are.

We got a fair deal that includes a known player who is worth at least the 1st round pick he was drafted with.
 

vabearsfan15

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Dolphins: (3rd pick is 2200 points)

2021 First Round Pick - #12 Overall - 1200 points
2021 3rd rd Comp Pick- #102 Overall - 92 points
2022 1st Rd Pick - 500 points (discounted as 2nd round pick)
2023 1st Rd Pick - 500 points (discounted as 2nd round pick)
Total Value = 2292 points


Bears: (1st pick is 3000 points)

2023 First Rd Pick - #9 overall - 1350 points
2023 First Rd Pick - #61 overall - 292 points
2024 First Rd Pick - 500 points
2025 2nd Rd Pick - 230 points (discounted as 3rd round pick)
DJ Moore - 1000 points (mid first round pick value as GB who picks 15th offered 1st rounder)
Total Value = 3,372 points

So looking at both trades the Dolphins essentially got a 3rd round pick in excess value ie 92 points. The Bears by contrast got the equivalent of pick 53 (ie 2nd round) in excess value ie 372 points.

I appreciate the work put into this and can see how the value is comparable when using a draft site number chart. At the end of the day, the numbers are a different to each NFL team and how they value each draft class.

I would wager the #1 pick this year, with two QBs worth taking #1 is worth more than say last year when Kenny Lickett was the top QB and Travon Walker went #1 overall.

I also don't think it's as simple as saying a Rd 2 this year is the same value as a Rd 1 next year. Etc. The numbers vary, and getting an extra crack of the bat, per se, holds a base value that is hard to define in a numerical chart. Each team values it differently.

Also, the whole equation changes explicitly how you value DJ Moore. I said mid 1st rd without being specific. Maybe he is valued as an early 20th pick. Etc. It all changes the equation dramatically.
 

Montucky

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I appreciate the work put into this and can see how the value is comparable when using a draft site number chart. At the end of the day, the numbers are a different to each NFL team and how they value each draft class.

I would wager the #1 pick this year, with two QBs worth taking #1 is worth more than say last year when Kenny Lickett was the top QB and Travon Walker went #1 overall.

I also don't think it's as simple as saying a Rd 2 this year is the same value as a Rd 1 next year. Etc. The numbers vary, and getting an extra crack of the bat, per se, holds a base value that is hard to define in a numerical chart. Each team values it differently.

Also, the whole equation changes explicitly how you value DJ Moore. I said mid 1st rd without being specific. Maybe he is valued as an early 20th pick. Etc. It all changes the equation dramatically.
These attempts at nuance fall completely flat with the remybrain. I agree with each one of them, but he's not coming off these valuations.

I am particularly baffled by how poorly future picks are valued in this scheme. it is so easy to sit here and picture this time next year and think "you know what'd feel really good about now? Another first round pick". Nobody wants to explain this, particularly remy. Whatever, its his "personality" to be this rigid.
 

monkforasia

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Dolphins: (3rd pick is 2200 points)

2021 First Round Pick - #12 Overall - 1200 points
2021 3rd rd Comp Pick- #102 Overall - 92 points
2022 1st Rd Pick - 500 points (discounted as 2nd round pick)
2023 1st Rd Pick - 500 points (discounted as 2nd round pick)
Total Value = 2292 points


Bears: (1st pick is 3000 points)

2023 First Rd Pick - #9 overall - 1350 points
2023 First Rd Pick - #61 overall - 292 points
2024 First Rd Pick - 500 points
2025 2nd Rd Pick - 230 points (discounted as 3rd round pick)
DJ Moore - 1000 points (mid first round pick value as GB who picks 15th offered 1st rounder)
Total Value = 3,372 points

So looking at both trades the Dolphins essentially got a 3rd round pick in excess value ie 92 points. The Bears by contrast got the equivalent of pick 53 (ie 2nd round) in excess value ie 372 points.
Curious when did the Packers off the first?
 

vabearsfan15

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Except it was obvious the Niners were going to be picking late in the 1st. Good thing no one gives a shit about how you didn’t get “blown” away.

You actually raise a fair point. I'll give you that.

Regardless if you agree or care about my reaction, I would argue that a majority of non-Bears related media either reacted that it was just a fair deal or were somewhat surprised the Panthers weren't raked over the coals for the #1 pick.
 

JP Hochbaum

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These attempts at nuance fall completely flat with the remybrain. I agree with each one of them, but he's not coming off these valuations.

I am particularly baffled by how poorly future picks are valued in this scheme. it is so easy to sit here and picture this time next year and think "you know what'd feel really good about now? Another first round pick". Nobody wants to explain this, particularly remy. Whatever, its his "personality" to be this rigid.
Future firsts are valued less for a few reasons:

1. It is impossible to know what pick it will be.
2. The pick next year is worth less now, because you can't turn it into a player until the next year (unless it is traded).
 

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