Scherzer/Zimmerman

[chibears55]

What a deal if you have ownership that can cover the differed money

Sure.. but will suck having 15 mil of payroll committed to someone not playing for 7 yrs..

Suck even more if Baseball forced to have some kind of cap in future... Doubt it but would suck if they did..

 

[knoxville7]

there will be no big name pitcher the cubs trade for this season. maybe after this year they will go get a guy, but not at this point in time. the cubs I think are pretty content with their pitching staff for the year. if they were truly ready to contend for a WS title this year then they would look into it, but this year is all about seeing and developing our young hitters and seeing where we are at

 

[CSF77]

I doubt the Cubs will add anything with out Wood/Jackson/Castillo as a part of the deal.

SP depth right now is Lester/Arrieta/Hammels/Wood/Hendricks/Wada/Jackson/Turner/Doubront

Out of this I see Wada and Doubront in the pen as LH. Reason why they cleaned out the LH's in the pen. Turner excelled more in the pen last year.

That gives 3 emergency starters.

Jackson has to be traded. Castillo needs to be traded also. They are not going 3 deep at catcher.

Wood is a year removed from a all star season and him being around Lester could get him back to where he was. Wich was a solid #4.

I do not see the need to trade up at this point. They should just let the season play out and see where the chips fall.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I doubt the Cubs will add anything with out Wood/Jackson/Castillo as a part of the deal.

SP depth right now is Lester/Arrieta/Hammels/Wood/Hendricks/Wada/Jackson/Turner/Doubront

Out of this I see Wada and Doubront in the pen as LH. Reason why they cleaned out the LH's in the pen. Turner excelled more in the pen last year.

That gives 3 emergency starters.

Jackson has to be traded. Castillo needs to be traded also. They are not going 3 deep at catcher.

Wood is a year removed from a all star season and him being around Lester could get him back to where he was. Wich was a solid #4.

I do not see the need to trade up at this point. They should just let the season play out and see where the chips fall.

Nobody wants to hear this but I don't see Jackson going anywhere right now. If they were going to cut him and eat his contract they would have done that already, I think they're going to look at him in ST and see if they he can compete for that #5 spot, if not he's going to the bullpen. If they want to get rid of him he has to improve or they have to trade bad contract for bad contract and they're running out places for the latter.

 

[beckdawg]

Bryant and Almora aren't costing the team other players and they are under team control for a long time. The point is cost/years of control, big money. The point was not Boras alone. A trade for him is just fine. What you are willing to give up for him isn't.

I don't really think you are being realistic on what players get traded for if that's what you feel. Shark went for a top 10 prospect and a fringe top 100 prospect plus filler. Zimmerman and Strasburg are both probably considered better pitchers by scouts. If you're higher on Baez/Edwards than I am that's fine but i'd like you to at least acknowledge you're talking about potential vs actual production. The way I view things is that *if* Baez fixes his k rate and *if* Edwards remains a starter, *if* both stay healthy and *if* both a productive players then you can talk about it being too much. The opposing side is *if* Strasburg stays healthy which since he had TJ he's put up 11.7 fWAR or roughly 4 fWAR a season.

As for the money issue, the way I see it they will be paying someone anyways. It just comes down to a matter of who you pay. I'm way more comfortable giving a 26-27 year old a 7-8 year deal than I am someone who's 29-30. Simply put, Strasburg was one of 5 pitchers last year to have a 10+ k/9. He's one of 20 pitchers to have a 1.8 or lower bb/9. You combine those two metrics and you're talking about a short list of people who have that kind of stuff. You're talking about Kershaw(10.85/1.41), Chris Sale(10.76/2.02), Kluber(10.27/1.95), Strasburg(10.13/1.80), Price(9.82/1.38), King Felix(9.46/1.75), Greinke(9.21/1.91) and Jon Lester(9.01/1.97). You combine that with his age and possible availability compared to guys like Sale/Kershaw/Felix who are locked up long term and I just find him a desirable piece. He's likely the best pitcher you'll find available given both his talent and his age.

Does that cost a lot both in terms of contract and prospects if you trade for him? Sure but the alternative is hoping a prospect is good.

 

[knoxville7]

I don't really think you are being realistic on what players get traded for if that's what you feel. Shark went for a top 10 prospect and a fringe top 100 prospect plus filler. Zimmerman and Strasburg are both probably considered better pitchers by scouts. If you're higher on Baez/Edwards than I am that's fine but i'd like you to at least acknowledge you're talking about potential vs actual production. The way I view things is that *if* Baez fixes his k rate and *if* Edwards remains a starter, *if* both stay healthy and *if* both a productive players then you can talk about it being too much. The opposing side is *if* Strasburg stays healthy which since he had TJ he's put up 11.7 fWAR or roughly 4 fWAR a season.

As for the money issue, the way I see it they will be paying someone anyways. It just comes down to a matter of who you pay. I'm way more comfortable giving a 26-27 year old a 7-8 year deal than I am someone who's 29-30. Simply put, Strasburg was one of 5 pitchers last year to have a 10+ k/9. He's one of 20 pitchers to have a 1.8 or lower bb/9. You combine those two metrics and you're talking about a short list of people who have that kind of stuff. You're talking about Kershaw(10.85/1.41), Chris Sale(10.76/2.02), Kluber(10.27/1.95), Strasburg(10.13/1.80), Price(9.82/1.38), King Felix(9.46/1.75), Greinke(9.21/1.91) and Jon Lester(9.01/1.97). You combine that with his age and possible availability compared to guys like Sale/Kershaw/Felix who are locked up long term and I just find him a desirable piece. He's likely the best pitcher you'll find available given both his talent and his age.

Does that cost a lot both in terms of contract and prospects if you trade for him? Sure but the alternative is hoping a prospect is good.

if Washington offered us Strasburg for baez and Edwards id bite on that in a heartbeat

 

[beckdawg]

Nobody wants to hear this but I don't see Jackson going anywhere right now. If they were going to cut him and eat his contract they would have done that already, I think they're going to look at him in ST and see if they he can compete for that #5 spot, if not he's going to the bullpen. If they want to get rid of him he has to improve or they have to trade bad contract for bad contract and they're running out places for the latter.

Only way i see a deal getting done is if some team has a rotation guy go down in the pre-season and they need a inning eater. Right now there's just better options for teams than Jackson.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

if Washington offered us Strasburg for baez and Edwards id bite on that in a heartbeat

So would I but I think Castro, Edwards and a lesser prospect is more likely. I'd think long and hard about that but when scoring runs is a bigger issue than pitching that's a tough one to pull the trigger on.

 

[knoxville7]

So would I but I think Castro, Edwards and a lesser prospect is more likely. I'd think long and hard about that but when scoring runs is a bigger issue than pitching that's a tough one to pull the trigger on.

baez, Edwards, and throw in some low level prospect or two. Strasburg is certainly a game changer

 

[Shawon0Meter]

I can't afford $400 a month for 5 years for the used truck I want but the bank will let me have it for $200 a month for 10 years. I know the vehicle won't be reliable in 7 years but $200 a month won't mean as much as it does now. Why doesn't everybody get their cars this way?

 

[JosMin]

I can't afford $400 a month for 5 years for the used truck I want but the bank will let me have it for $200 a month for 10 years. I know the vehicle won't be reliable in 7 years but $200 a month won't mean as much as it does now. Why doesn't everybody get their cars this way?

Because after 5-6 years, you're paying on a car with a shit load of miles on it. And the logic is if you can't afford $400 a month to make a car payment, how are you going to be able to afford both a car payment and repairs/maintenance when the car's older and needs to be taken care of so it doesn't turn into a huge liability? It's the same reason why teams try to limit terms on player contracts -- why do they want to pay a guy the most money in their 5th, 6th or 7th year of a contract? To me, this deal is an absolute disaster waiting to happen. Even if Scherzer remains a competent starter for the life of this contract, why on Earth is a team going to risk paying him all that money when he's no longer playing?

Think of the Bobby Bonilla deal -- the Mets are stuck paying him $1.2 million a year FOR THE NEXT 25 YEARS!!!!!!! The guy hasn't touched a baseball bat since 2001. That's a horrific investment.

 

[Shawon0Meter]

lol I was being sarcastic...I completely agree with you.

 

[beckdawg]

So would I but I think Castro, Edwards and a lesser prospect is more likely. I'd think long and hard about that but when scoring runs is a bigger issue than pitching that's a tough one to pull the trigger on.

Frankly seems unlikely to me he'd go for that much given the amount of team control left. Even if you want to talk about the Shields trade as one of the more lopsided trades in recent memory(least at the time), you had Myers who's essentially a similar level player to Baez a secondary top 100 piece, some other pieces that were intriguing but nothing on the level of an all-star SS. Additionally, presuming they do view baez as a SS he would have more trade value than Myers based on positional scarcity.

I'm not even a huge Castro guy but I feel that people are really undervaluing him. He's a 25 year old SS who's locked up on a team friendly deal until at least 2019 and there's a option year for 20. I'd argue Castro straight up for Strasburg would be in the realm of possibility. I think Strasburg is a better player personally but you also have to account for the team control which Castro vastly wins on. If you look at it from a WAR perspective you would be talking something like $25 mil for 2 years of 8 WAR out of Strasburg or 5 possibly 6 years of 15/18 WAR for $47.3/$63.3. To get a similar amount of WAR out of FA to make up the difference you're probably paying another $42-60 mil at $6 mil/WAR. In essence you're probably paying more than $20 mil for a similar contribution.

 

[Parade_Rain]

I don't really think you are being realistic on what players get traded for if that's what you feel. Shark went for a top 10 prospect and a fringe top 100 prospect plus filler. Zimmerman and Strasburg are both probably considered better pitchers by scouts. If you're higher on Baez/Edwards than I am that's fine but i'd like you to at least acknowledge you're talking about potential vs actual production. The way I view things is that *if* Baez fixes his k rate and *if* Edwards remains a starter, *if* both stay healthy and *if* both a productive players then you can talk about it being too much. The opposing side is *if* Strasburg stays healthy which since he had TJ he's put up 11.7 fWAR or roughly 4 fWAR a season.

As for the money issue, the way I see it they will be paying someone anyways. It just comes down to a matter of who you pay. I'm way more comfortable giving a 26-27 year old a 7-8 year deal than I am someone who's 29-30. Simply put, Strasburg was one of 5 pitchers last year to have a 10+ k/9. He's one of 20 pitchers to have a 1.8 or lower bb/9. You combine those two metrics and you're talking about a short list of people who have that kind of stuff. You're talking about Kershaw(10.85/1.41), Chris Sale(10.76/2.02), Kluber(10.27/1.95), Strasburg(10.13/1.80), Price(9.82/1.38), King Felix(9.46/1.75), Greinke(9.21/1.91) and Jon Lester(9.01/1.97). You combine that with his age and possible availability compared to guys like Sale/Kershaw/Felix who are locked up long term and I just find him a desirable piece. He's likely the best pitcher you'll find available given both his talent and his age.

Does that cost a lot both in terms of contract and prospects if you trade for him? Sure but the alternative is hoping a prospect is good.

LOL. I'm quite confident I know what it takes. Neither is worth Baez plus another top 25 prospect plus filler. Not where the Cubs are at this preseason.

 

[beckdawg]

LOL. I'm quite confident I know what it takes. Neither is worth Baez plus another top 25 prospect plus filler. Not where the Cubs are at this preseason.

Since when is Edwards a top 25 prospect? I've not see anyone rate him in the top 50. MLB.com currently has him at 53.

Edit: Also if neither Strasburg nor Zimmermann is worth those two players who is? You're talking about the #13 and #10 pitchers in terms of fWAR. This is my problem with your stance. There is a huge disconnect between how you view them and how I view them. If you're suggesting Strasburg/Zimmermann are average players I think the stats blatantly disagree. If you're suggesting Baez/Edwards are too good to give up I'd frankly ask based on what? I'm the first to admit I'm not high on Baez but to suggest he's proven anything is completely unrealistic. At this point he hasn't even proven he's a major league player. Those who are in on him are for his potential. Edwards has yet to throw more than 150 innings in a season and hasn't pitched above AA. As I said before I like Edwards but until you're throwing 150+ innings you've proven nothing as a starter because if you don't go out and take the ball every 5th day then your value is limited. Look at someone like Cashner. Super talented guy but hasn't been able to do it.

 

[brett05]

Because after 5-6 years, you're paying on a car with a shit load of miles on it. And the logic is if you can't afford $400 a month to make a car payment, how are you going to be able to afford both a car payment and repairs/maintenance when the car's older and needs to be taken care of so it doesn't turn into a huge liability? It's the same reason why teams try to limit terms on player contracts -- why do they want to pay a guy the most money in their 5th, 6th or 7th year of a contract? To me, this deal is an absolute disaster waiting to happen. Even if Scherzer remains a competent starter for the life of this contract, why on Earth is a team going to risk paying him all that money when he's no longer playing?

Think of the Bobby Bonilla deal -- the Mets are stuck paying him $1.2 million a year FOR THE NEXT 25 YEARS!!!!!!! The guy hasn't touched a baseball bat since 2001. That's a horrific investment.

Bad investment but zero franchise harm

 

[JosMin]

lol I was being sarcastic...I completely agree with you.

I know you were

 

[Shawon0Meter]

I know you were

damn it

 

[JosMin]

Bad investment but zero franchise harm

How are you not harming your franchise by paying a guy INTO HIS 60s?!?!?!!!! I don't care if it's $10 a year... that's a total waste of finances.

You own a business, right Brett? Tell you what, I know it won't sink your business, but I want you to send me $50 a year until I'm 50 years old -- meaning the next 22 years. Go ahead, do it.

 

[TL1961]

How are you not harming your franchise by paying a guy INTO HIS 60s?!?!?!!!! I don't care if it's $10 a year... that's a total waste of finances.

You own a business, right Brett? Tell you what, I know it won't sink your business, but I want you to send me $50 a year until I'm 50 years old -- meaning the next 22 years. Go ahead, do it.

Your example would be valid if Bonilla never played for the Mets or gave them anything in terms of production. But he did.

Take your example, and twist it slightly. You work for me at a job in which the salary would typically be $40,000. You work for me for 5 years, and I will pay you $30,000 for those 5 years, and $10,000 a year for the five years after you leave.

How is this a horrific investment for me?