Think some of you are drinking a bit too much kool-aid on Hammels and Hendricks.
With Hammel maybe. Looking at the data there's something pretty odd about his time in Chicago. His FIP and ERA are pretty similar so it's not obviously luck. This year he's at 2.86/3.05 ERA/FIP and last year it was 2.98/3.19. His K/9 and BB/9 were 8.61/1.90 last year and this year are 9.12/1.56. So, there's either something with Bosio here or maybe he just is pitching better in Wrigley for some reason. His walk rate and k rate took a nose dive in oakland last year at 7.18/2.79 and in turn his ERA/FIP ballooned to 4.26/5.10. Of the two given Hammel's career and that Oakland stint I'd be slightly worried he's over performing.
With Hendricks, I'm not really sure what people are expecting. If you're talking Maddux then sure people are over reaching here. His ERA was about 3/4 a point lower than his FIP last year at 2.46/3.32. The thing is though his ERA/FIP this year is back in that similar range 3.44/3.23 only this time the ERA is a bit higher. If you take the two seasons as a whole you're looking at a guy who posted a 6.37/1.61 k/9 bb/9 and a 3.02/3.27 ERA/FIP. I've brought this up a number of times but might as well again. People aren't going to see a 6 or 7 k/9 and think a pitcher is amazing. But compare Mike Mussina's numbers with Hendricks.
Hendricks
185.0 IP, 31 starts 11-6, 6.37/1.61/0.63 k/9 bb/9 hr/9, .282 BABIP, 74.8% left on base, 48.9% ground ball rate, 7.4% HR/FB, 3.02/3.27 ERA/FIP
Mussina
3562.2 IP, 536 starts 270-153, 7.11/1.98/0.95 k/9 bb/9 hr/9, .292 BABIP, 72.7% left on base, 43.3% ground ball rate, 10.0% HR/FB, 3.68/3.57 ERA/FIP
If you average those starts over 185 IP to make it comparable Mussina was roughly 14-8 year to year. Now I'm not saying that Hendricks is destined to be Mike Mussina. Hendricks has to continue to do this over a longer period before you seriously talk about them in the same light. My point is that at a 7.22/1.55 k/9 and bb/9 this year Hendricks can be a better pitcher than some would imagine. Mussina is 16th all time in fWAR. If Hendricks continues to pitch this well he's probably closer to a good #3 than people realize. And because Hendricks isn't a max effort pitcher he's some what likely to stay healthy which was one of the key's to Mussina's success.
It just goes to show that control is vastly underrated when talking about prospects.
I mean seriously, just look at the pitchers since 2000 who have a k/9 over 6 and a bb/9 under 2. The overwhelming majority of them are good to star level players. It's also worth noting that Hendricks is pretty similar numerical to a younger Jordan Zimmerman.
