Self Driving Cars

xer0h0ur

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The main reason I simply don't see a widespread use of robots/machines/AI/automation within my lifetime is because old farts are afraid of technology and its consequences. Until this isn't a thing, there will always be resistance to going the full futurist route. Resistance to change is a very real thing.
 

Ares

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The main reason I simply don't see a widespread use of robots/machines/AI/automation within my lifetime is because old farts are afraid of technology and its consequences. Until this isn't a thing, there will always be resistance to going the full futurist route. Resistance to change is a very real thing.

Old farts that own large businesses that can save 60-70% on their shipping costs with automation will make sure it happens.

If it was up to the old farts who hate new tech, manufacturing would not be automated as it is today.... media would not be digital as it is today.... you might find some idiots who fight it and want to use real truck drivers, but their costs will be higher, their margins will be lower, and they will adapt or die within the market.
 

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Some people still think trains are the future.
 

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Never been on a train except for a little one at a wildlife park. Kids liked it.
 

number51

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Never been on a train except for a little one at a wildlife park. Kids liked it.

Anytime I want to go downtown from the Western burbs train. I don't know about the year 3000 like Crys does, but in 2017 they're pretty convenient.
 

number51

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For the near future replacements for freight trains I look forward to noted futurist Crys to let us all know what to invest in. Transporters?
 

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The main reason I simply don't see a widespread use of robots/machines/AI/automation within my lifetime is because old farts are afraid of technology and its consequences. Until this isn't a thing, there will always be resistance to going the full futurist route. Resistance to change is a very real thing.
Anyone who has helped a parent or a generation-older relative with anything computer, phone, or tablet knows this is 100% true. The struggle is real.
 

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Anyone who has helped a parent or a generation-older relative with anything computer, phone, or tablet knows this is 100% true. The struggle is real.

Those people tend to not own large companies that drive innovation forward in order to drive down costs....

Older people not liking cell phones does not influence corporate leadership away from developing technology that cuts huge costs from their budgets.

This argument about old farts holding back technology is a farce IMO, I know those people exist, but they simply cannot hold back major innovation, especially ones that might save large companies billions of dollars in costs. If old people exist who resist those kinds of innovations, they are removed.... that is the corporate world.... adapt or die.

Not to mention that companies developing and selling technology, do not cater to the oldest generations that may want to live in the past.... they cater to the newest generations that buy their stuff.
 

xer0h0ur

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Those people tend to not own large companies that drive innovation forward in order to drive down costs....

Older people not liking cell phones does not influence corporate leadership away from developing technology that cuts huge costs from their budgets.

This argument about old farts holding back technology is a farce IMO, I know those people exist, but they simply cannot hold back major innovation, especially ones that might save large companies billions of dollars in costs. If old people exist who resist those kinds of innovations, they are removed.... that is the corporate world.... adapt or die.

Not to mention that companies developing and selling technology, do not cater to the oldest generations that may want to live in the past.... they cater to the newest generations that buy their stuff.

Yeah but the difference is you were talking about wholesale replacements of workforces due to these changes. I said I don't see shit like this happening in my lifetime for the aforementioned reasons and now you're scaling back to a more realistic change. Clearly what you're saying here is in fact truth. However when you make it sound like its going to affect every single job in any given field is where we stop agreeing.

So in other words saying large companies will replace truckers to cost save isn't the same as saying all truckers will be replaced.
 

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Yeah but the difference is you were talking about wholesale replacements of workforces due to these changes. I said I don't see shit like this happening in my lifetime for the aforementioned reasons and now you're scaling back to a more realistic change. Clearly what you're saying here is in fact truth. However when you make it sound like its going to affect every single job in any given field is where we stop agreeing.

So in other words saying large companies will replace truckers to cost save isn't the same as saying all truckers will be replaced.

If I wasn't clear let me restate.... the automation will cut down the trucking workforce in size and pay the same way it is doing to Manufacturing jobs.

It won't be 100% replacement, but it will be to the point where the job pool for truckers is cut by a huge amount.... maybe 50-80%.... and worse the jobs that remain will see drops in pay or the pay level will push more and more businesses to push to automation to save money.

I mean if an automated shipping truck costs you even 250k.... and you pay a trucker 70-80k .... after 3.5 years you are saving money, assuming maintenance costs are not crazy high compared to ordinary truck maintenance.

Reducing the job pool for truckers in a similar way as manufacturing has been reduced in size and pay.... in my eyes that is killing that job pool the same as if you replaced them all, because you take away that job as a real path to a long term sustainable wage that you can live/retire on.
 

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For the near future replacements for freight trains I look forward to noted futurist Crys to let us all know what to invest in. Transporters?
Are you the kind of guy that goes to a zoo to **** with the lions and tigers?
 

Crystallas

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'Old people' spend their entire lives making a dream come reality, technologically. That gets called innovation. I don't see how this is an old vs young thing either.

My issue is impatient technology shifts. Pushing an all-encompassing standard(that is meant to be universal for a 10-30 year generational life span) onto the end users. Instead, a standard that would be considered a massive technological breakthrough in comparison, is barely production ready and a year out. A measly year out. Gotta live with it for 10-30 years, wait the fucking year, sometimes just a few months.

I always thought it was funny that the largest user base of vinyl in 2016 was the 20-30 demographic. They were simply brushed off as hipsters, but most of them weren't aside from having an interest in records. Technology doesn't move forward like it's some democracy, it just happens regardless, and if people reflect on the past, that also happens among all generations, old and young, past and future. Not only that, they look back for a reason, something was lost. It's a check and balance, culturally. Maybe not the best example, but here's one off the top of my head. Like the peak fidelity of some vinyl compared to CD releases of the same albums, not the pops and hisses(BTW, very easy to eliminate), went missing for many many years. So did the warmth of analog(which makes sense, because digital is merely a repeatable capture of an analog signal in this context.) Just using the vinyl example, because at this point people are familiar with it. But there are other examples. IMO, it's when technology is centrally manipulated, and we consider that "moving forward", that society is cheated.

Bluray won vs HD-DVD, but neither should have won, that was strong armed onto the public. And as time goes on, we see how wrong we were for buying into the hype. Instead of 50gb discs with 50gb of heavily compressed content as well as serving as a backup, we would have had (realistically, not just shooting for max capacities) 2,000gb discs(theoretically rated at a 6,000gb max, where bluray maxes at 250gb theoretically). Netflix doesn't stream anywhere NEAR 33+GB/s(23.5MB/s is their physical limit, so you lose a ton of quality, also a VERY apples:eek:ranges comparison to brush off streaming as a replacement, because that mostly makes sense due to how limited bluray is), but a HVD allows for the streaming to be maxed out with each generation of video data bus, theoretically 400GB/s. And all we needed to do was reject Bluray, wait ONE YEAR, and it would have been the market standard. Entire bluray sets for TV shows, movie trilogies, music albums UNCOMPRESSED, could be released. It would also have kept up with piracy for much longer, because nobody has the bandwidth to serve these ISOs.

Don't get me started on CFL bulbs, especially when LED WAS on the market, just needed another year(which was proven with the Lime Energy acquisition who had an unfunded assembly model that blew away GE's lobby manipulated CFL lines). The whole CFL push delayed LED 4 years. Who was cheated? Now we have a serious environmental issue on our hands with handling the bulbs. Fucking genius.

The next big thing in computing is CNT layering on lithographed silicon wafer. Then it will be 20-50 years of CNT development when computing standards shift, and some form of FPGA can handle legacy(what we consider latest and greatest today). I can't wait for CNT transistors. But you have a few academics that want to force a specific form of quantum computing onto everyone as the next major standard. SO guess what, wait 3 years, we're all ready to get cheated again. But you know what, your device will have a little quantum co-processor, run faster, and bobs your uncle, be super happy with the new tech. But realistically speaking, that is going to **** us hard for 20 years. Hell, the bulk of China runs MIPs systems, so they may adopt the superior standard, and regardless of political agenda, it would be a consumer and hype-marketing move that would put us at a massive disadvantage in computing performance and development.

But people are worried about self driving cars taking over. In reality, a self driving car is more of a regulatory hurdle than a technological one. It's not all that grand. Case in point, agricultural management systems that are fully automated with a severely outdated computer the size of a six-pack of beer that have been in service for decades now. Sure, a road has more variables, but if in in the mid 1980s I can plot, plow, plant, harvest thousands of acres with obstacles at a lower rate of error than humans, then double that scale of obstacles every 2 years for 30 years, the self-driving car is really nothing in comparison.
 

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Those people tend to not own large companies that drive innovation forward in order to drive down costs....

Older people not liking cell phones does not influence corporate leadership away from developing technology that cuts huge costs from their budgets.

This argument about old farts holding back technology is a farce IMO, I know those people exist, but they simply cannot hold back major innovation, especially ones that might save large companies billions of dollars in costs. If old people exist who resist those kinds of innovations, they are removed.... that is the corporate world.... adapt or die.

Not to mention that companies developing and selling technology, do not cater to the oldest generations that may want to live in the past.... they cater to the newest generations that buy their stuff.

Yeah but the difference is you were talking about wholesale replacements of workforces due to these changes. I said I don't see shit like this happening in my lifetime for the aforementioned reasons and now you're scaling back to a more realistic change. Clearly what you're saying here is in fact truth. However when you make it sound like its going to affect every single job in any given field is where we stop agreeing.

So in other words saying large companies will replace truckers to cost save isn't the same as saying all truckers will be replaced.

The other factor is the technology itself. If the self-driving cars cannot compensate for cars that aren't "smart", you're working against the Luddites of all ages (not just old people, but they tend to be the ones most set in their ways), plus old people tend to vote more, and as such any law stating that a car has to have a smart computer retrofitted, or only smart cars on certain roads, the law might be shot down and what good is having a smart car that can avoid accidents if it can't counter the fact that a dumb car driven by a senior who shouldn't be behind the wheel in the 1st place can confound it?

Remember, we're talking about people--and people tried to pass a law saying that pi should equal 3 exactly because an ancient storybook which predates algebra says so.
 

Crystallas

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That might be older data, or one example of how automated vehicles could work. However, old cars wont need to be retrofitted with any device to allow new self-driving cars to operate. That would be a bad idea in general, because then you require an industry standard that needs red tape to adjust itself. In other words, better tech gets sidelined. When it comes to reducing death, injury, and property damage, that would be a terrible experiment to allow corrupt regulators and incompetent legislators to dictate how things operate. Instead, each vehicle system needs to act independently, which allows competition and the best ideas to move forward. You can still have IIHS do their thing, and DoT can disallow things over time when they have proof something is harmful.
 

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This is a good thread 10/10 I would read it again.
 

Ares

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That might be older data, or one example of how automated vehicles could work. However, old cars wont need to be retrofitted with any device to allow new self-driving cars to operate. That would be a bad idea in general, because then you require an industry standard that needs red tape to adjust itself. In other words, better tech gets sidelined. When it comes to reducing death, injury, and property damage, that would be a terrible experiment to allow corrupt regulators and incompetent legislators to dictate how things operate. Instead, each vehicle system needs to act independently, which allows competition and the best ideas to move forward. You can still have IIHS do their thing, and DoT can disallow things over time when they have proof something is harmful.

This... and IMO the tech needs to get good enough that it can handle operating without any requirements of other drivers or other driving systems.... until it gets to that point, it won't be viable in public.... it will get there eventually though.
 

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Why won't you stay ded?


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modo

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If you work in the IT field you may just realize how scary self driving cars could be............
 

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