A middle of the rotation guy for a top prospect. Hmmm!
The Cubs just spent 48 million on Jackson for 4 years and he is not middle of the rotation on the Cubs. I would have to think that 2 years of Shark for half that price is worth a top dollar prospect and some change. Especially to someone who is ready to contend.
It's not as if they are emptying the farm because they won't trade both. Therefore, they will more than likely have two pitchers on the club in due time, and one is a guaranteed starter now, that being Shark.
For what it's worth, the metric numbers suggest Jackson is in for a rebound. But as for the trade, here's where it's interesting.
Wade Miley(26) 3.55 ERA last year
Patrick Corbin(24) 3.41 ERA last year
Trevor Cahill(25) 3.99 ERA last year
Randall Delgado(23) 4.26 ERA last year
If you throw Shark into that mix their rotation becomes very young and pretty good. Additionally, they not only have a decent staff at the major league level, they have a lot of top level pitching in their minors. So, in that regard the trade would make sense. I really could see them giving up 2 very good pitching prospect for Shark. Guys like Braden Shipley(#2 ceiling), David Holmberg(#3 ceiling) or Andrew Chafin(#3 ceiling but may need to be bullpen) could also be interesting pieces in a trade.
However, you can then take that sort of offer to other reportedly interested teams like the Pirates and Royals. Honestly, the more I think about it, the less unrealistic Bradley and Skaggs together sounds. What pitching will be on the market that is comparable to Shark? Garza is there without a qualifying offer. Burnett, Kuroda, Jimenez, and Santana all got qualifying offers. That leaves Colon, Nolasco, Kazmir, and Haren as really the only other choices. So, unless they either A) shell out big time for Garza, B) are willing to give up their 1st round pick and then pay someone or C) are willing to take lessor guys and wait on their own pitching there's not a lot of options. I suppose there's also D) with Price maybe being available but he's significantly more expensive.
If you view it from that standpoint, the cubs are in the drivers seat. Compare Shark to what the Royals gave up for Shields. Meyers was #4 on baseball america's top 100. Jake Odorizzi was #92. Mike Montgomery had been #23 the year before. Tyler Skaggs was #13 before the year but stumbled with a 5.43 ERA. Bradley's likely to be top 10. I could see the cubs having to throw something more in besides Shark like Wade Davis was for tampa but in terms of value, the two deals really aren't that far off. And if the Royals are going to go crazy in win now mode and offer Zimmer and Ventura, I don't think Skaggs/Bradley plus Shipley/Holmberg/Chafin gets the deal done for the d-backs.
Also, when's the last time a team underpaid for a guy like Shark? It seems like someone always goes over the top to get a deal done. It's almost always two top 50 players for the best young pitcher on the market be that Shields, Latos, Jimenez...etc. And at the moment, Skaggs and Bradley are really the only two guys who would be top 50 guys. Shark might not be as good as those players but I'm not really sure it matters. He's probably one of the top 5 pitchers a team could potentially get this off season and wont cost as much nor will it cost them a draft pick.
ray:
