Steelers Looking to Trade with Bears???

[dabears70]

They aren’t going to want Claypool back. I hope you’re joking

Was definitely joking.

 

[Wild_x_Card]

Umm ... Carter is a blue chip player, so ...

Fully aware. I don't think the bears will be in on him.

 

[didshereallysaythat]

#17 and #32 would be a huge overpay. The Bears would likely take that in heartbeat.

Well in 2018, the Packers traded pick 14 (1,100) to the Saints for pick 27 (680) their 5th round pick 147 (31.4) and a 2019 1st round pick. The gap before the 1st round pick was 388.6 and that was worth a 1st in what was thought to be a late 1st and was.

Now, if the Bears traded 9 (1,350) to the Steelers for pick 17 (950), the gap would be 400 which is more than above situation. Pick 32 is worth 590 so I agree it is an overpay. But this can and has happened.

 

[bamainatlanta]

Well in 2018, the Packers traded pick 14 (1,100) to the Saints for pick 27 (680) their 5th round pick 147 (31.4) and a 2019 1st round pick. The gap before the 1st round pick was 388.6 and that was worth a 1st in what was thought to be a late 1st and was.

Now, if the Bears traded 9 (1,350) to the Steelers for pick 17 (950), the gap would be 400 which is more than above situation. Pick 32 is worth 590 so I agree it is an overpay. But this can and has happened.

Yes but the Vikings made an awful trade last year with the Lions. They dropped 20 spots and got zero Future 1sts

 

[dennehy]

Well in 2018, the Packers traded pick 14 (1,100) to the Saints for pick 27 (680) their 5th round pick 147 (31.4) and a 2019 1st round pick. The gap before the 1st round pick was 388.6 and that was worth a 1st in what was thought to be a late 1st and was.

Now, if the Bears traded 9 (1,350) to the Steelers for pick 17 (950), the gap would be 400 which is more than above situation. Pick 32 is worth 590 so I agree it is an overpay. But this can and has happened.

Picks in the following year are generally considered about middle of the next round down, so that first would be worth about the 48th pick according to the chart. Value is pretty spot on actually, slight overpay by Saints.

 

[Nelly]

Does Poles have a guy or two he values at or near some others that will only be available at 9? If so I guess grab that extra value and trade down to 17. I'm thinking Wright at 17 and pick up that 32nd pick back as well? Not bad if you get the right guys.

 

[Bears4Ever_34]

Unless there isn't a blue chip player available at 9.

Maybe, maybe not. I'm still not in love with the idea of falling back far enough to fall into the possibility that none of the top tackles will be available by 17. That's enough reason for me, personally.

 

[Nelly]

Maybe, maybe not. I'm still not in love with the idea of falling back far enough to fall into the possibility that none of the top tackles will be available by 17. That's enough reason for me, personally.

If the reason for the Steelers to trade up is for a tackle, assume they take Paris. It's entirely possible that both Jones and Wright are gone by 17 in that case. That's if Poles has a tackle on his mind anyway.

 

[Les Grossman]

If the reason for the Steelers to trade up is for a tackle, assume they take Paris. It's entirely possible that both Jones and Wright are gone by 17 in that case. That's if Poles has a tackle on his mind anyway.

Exactly. I wouldn’t play around and would take Paris or Jones at 9.

We shall see

 

[remydat]

There are two schools of thought on this. The first-way future picks are valued with a general starting point value as a pick in the middle of the round, and it's divided by two for one year out. The 16th pick in the first round is worth 1000 points/2 = 500 points. The second is that a future pick is valued as the last pick in that round in the current year. The last pick is worth 600 points. Teams have adopted different variations of the trade chart, but most are accepting the latter as fair market value. However, this is only a valid means of determining value in rounds 1 & 2 because of comp picks in rounds 3 - 7

Yes but actual trades for the most part discount a round.

"One great thing about the NFL Draft is that we can get a very good sense of how teams value their picks overall, because they trade them so often. To do so, we analyzed all 216 draft pick trades that didn't include any players in the 8 drafts since 2011 when the current rookie salary structure came into effect. First, we also excluded those that included picks in future years beyond the upcoming draft to get a baseline model for how the picks in the current draft are valued."

"The result was that teams for the most part appear to simply discount future picks by 1 round compared to current year picks, which is a very steep discount resulting in most picks only being worth around 50% as much simply because they are a year in the future. The other strange part of this method of discounting is that it doesn't result in an even discount percentage, as future 1st round picks are valued below 40%, while later rounds are all around 50%, implying future 1st round picks can be acquired at a huge discount."

How Teams Value Draft Picks - ProFootballLogic

 

[remydat]

That's just conjecture. Pittsburgh could also be worse. I'd rather have 2 firsts and maybe a 4th or whatever. Having 3 firsts next year, regardless of where they are, will give them a ton of ammo.

Well of course it is conjecture as the season hasnt happened yet. I am saying I would rather get the player now rather than wait a year as it is my opinion the Steelers pick will not be high. They have won at least 8 games 20 years in a row. Even last year when they should have been shit with a rookie QB and Trubisky they won 9 games so simply not a good gamble for me. But you are free to disagree of course.

 

[Nelly]

Exactly. I wouldn’t play around and would take Paris or Jones at 9.

We shall see

Assuming Poles likes Paris that much and wants to draft a tackle. We really don't know what he's looking to accomplish with the draft other than improving the team, but his vision of "improving the team" could differ drastically from what mine or yours or anyone else's idea of "improving the team" is.

 

[Bearly]

Well of course it is conjecture as the season hasnt happened yet. I am saying I would rather get the player now rather than wait a year as it is my opinion the Steelers pick will not be high. They have won at least 8 games 20 years in a row. Even last year when they should have been shit with a rookie QB and Trubisky they won 9 games so simply not a good gamble for me. But you are free to disagree of course.

I'd love to get our original 32 back but Pitt's 49 is more realistic in terms of value. Would come down to how much each team wanted that trade.

 

[Rise]

I know the charts are the baseline but I’m sorry give me the 1st next year over a 2nd this year anyday of the week. You never know how that’s going to turn out and to me it will always have more value. Do you think anyone thought the Lions would get the 6th pick from the Rams when the season started?

You don’t even have to wait a full calendar year for the value to double itself. To me it’s a no brainer take the 1st.

 

[NCChiFan]

Sorry, but to make that move I would want a young good starter in one of the Bears holes off Pitt's roster. DT ot OT or DE...

 

[ZOMBIE@CTESPN]

Who is pitt so desperately trading up for before even seeing who gets picked 1-8?

 

[hyatt151]

Absolutely. I would want their 1st next year actually. Would settle with 32 and a 3rd though.

did the Steelers hire Pace as their GM

 

[didshereallysaythat]

Yes but actual trades for the most part discount a round.

"One great thing about the NFL Draft is that we can get a very good sense of how teams value their picks overall, because they trade them so often. To do so, we analyzed all 216 draft pick trades that didn't include any players in the 8 drafts since 2011 when the current rookie salary structure came into effect. First, we also excluded those that included picks in future years beyond the upcoming draft to get a baseline model for how the picks in the current draft are valued."

"The result was that teams for the most part appear to simply discount future picks by 1 round compared to current year picks, which is a very steep discount resulting in most picks only being worth around 50% as much simply because they are a year in the future. The other strange part of this method of discounting is that it doesn't result in an even discount percentage, as future 1st round picks are valued below 40%, while later rounds are all around 50%, implying future 1st round picks can be acquired at a huge discount."

How Teams Value Draft Picks - ProFootballLogic

Well yeah, time value of money. Most people would rather have slightly less now than slightly more later because of what you can invest it in.

I am just looking merely at the division and conference the Steelers are in and thinking they are not making the playoffs. That puts them automatically in the top 20 next year.

If you were guaranteed it was a mid first next year, wouldn't you take that over 32 this year?

 

[jbunch14]

If Poles is indeed interested in a T, I don't think there is one who is truly head-and-shoulders above the rest this year. Likely #17 allows us to land a Jones/Wright. Both would be strong players at RT, leave Jones where he is, and use the extra pick(s) to build out the DL. Best case scenario.

 

[Moses Moreno]

Who is pitt so desperately trading up for before even seeing who gets picked 1-8?

Most likely they want a top tier LT. There's most likely going to be a run of tackles from 9-16 and they don't want to be left empty handed.

If they think Braxton/Wright is a good tackle pairing - the trade back gives us more ammo to address other holes.