My guess is when I see Trump do these dump shit things with the tariffs is whatever "deal" talks he's having with whoever the target of the week is arent going well and he's using these as the commerce equivalent of threatening to quit and take his ball home. That's how I interpret last nights move and it does kind of look like the market is as well.
The uncertainty/lack of stability this creates in the market is a real shame, I mentioned in an earlier post if we saw an "organic" traceback over a few days of trading to the 570s this would be a perfect time to buy in for a return to 590s and beyond. But when done this way its very difficult for me to justify reinvesting in a leg up as 1. I dont know if Europe will give Trump his token deal to repeal these idiotic tariffs and 2. I dont know if another country/area will draw his attention/ire next and cause a future setback.
I will probably invest a token amount playing a return to 590s over the next 3-4 weeks, but likely no more than 1-2K as my confidence as an investor is shot.
Technicals I look at hinting at a bounce in the near-term are both Vix is quickly returning back sub 20 after the premarket pump, and that we have now closed the gap from last weekend while creating a gap up to 582.50 from yesterday's close. I dont see a lot of certainty to justify using much of my dry tinder though and thats not likely to change in the next few weeks.
Edit: Bought 1 SPY 6/6 580C and a 585C, just dont feel comfortable putting in any more than 1-2K right now
