Stock Market/Investing

[HearshotKDS]

Here's my guys weekly chart:


The market still feels like it wants to recover and that any meaningful good news will cause a big jump, but we are starting to get back to resistance levels that the pre-tariff "healthy" market took months to breach (570 and 580). Random guess based only on my gut but I think next week gets into this range and then trades sideways for a few weeks until we get relevant news to push it one direction or the other.

The general pricing trend looks obviously up but I still have a nagging feeling that we may be sitting on a house of cards - market is pricing in first rate cut from Powell in July and if for example he decides to push that to later we could see a significant tumble. It does feel a bit like the market is currently "pricing" for Trump to walk back most if not all of the tariffs and so I suspect trade deals made will be very positively received and setbacks or even delays will start to drag down prices as businesses come to grips with the possibility that they are going to have to find a solution to a billion % tariffs on the worlds biggest or only supplier for key components in X industry.

My equities port is full cash as I still dont have confidence in this market but I will opportunistically make plays if we get trade news or at least the rumor of progress/setbacks in that area.

 

[DaaBears]

Here's my guys weekly chart:
View attachment 45513

The market still feels like it wants to recover and that any meaningful good news will cause a big jump, but we are starting to get back to resistance levels that the pre-tariff "healthy" market took months to breach (570 and 580). Random guess based only on my gut but I think next week gets into this range and then trades sideways for a few weeks until we get relevant news to push it one direction or the other.

The general pricing trend looks obviously up but I still have a nagging feeling that we may be sitting on a house of cards - market is pricing in first rate cut from Powell in July and if for example he decides to push that to later we could see a significant tumble. It does feel a bit like the market is currently "pricing" for Trump to walk back most if not all of the tariffs and so I suspect trade deals made will be very positively received and setbacks or even delays will start to drag down prices as businesses come to grips with the possibility that they are going to have to find a solution to a billion % tariffs on the worlds biggest or only supplier for key components in X industry.

My equities port is full cash as I still dont have confidence in this market but I will opportunistically make plays if we get trade news or at least the rumor of progress/setbacks in that area.

Agreed. I did some selling on the close Friday, and put some sell stops in GTC going forward. I would like to see it continue up, but over 5700 I think we get minimally choppy, and refuse to give up all the recent gains on some bad news announcement.

 

[HearshotKDS]

Daily Chart:


We've now basically spent 5 straight days trading between 555 and 565 - I suspected this tight trading would happen between 570 and 580 but we haven't seen enough conviction from buyers to get up there. I also thought we would get the announcement of an India trade deal. Still feels like the market is waiting for news to move. Regardless of how you feel about the macro-environment of current administrations trade policy, they have talked big talk about trade deals but have next to nothing to show in this area. At some point the lack of objective movement in this area becomes its own issue as the market will see delays as a sign of poor execution/failing strategy.

Edit: lo and behold we get an announcement of a UK trade deal tonight - maybe this gets us to 570 tomorrow

I thought Powell sounded hawkish at the FOMC meeting today, and wouldnt be surprised if we dont get a rate cut in June or July. I think this would be a catalyst that causes the markets to drop a few % unless we can get meaningful news to counteract the change in Rho that a no-cut announcement would cause.

 

[HearshotKDS]

On the shitter and can’t post charts but the market really liked the China deal news - up 3% in premarket and I think we’ll test 590-595 this week.

 

[knoxville7]

On the shitter and can’t post charts but the market really liked the China deal news - up 3% in premarket and I think we’ll test 590-595 this week.

it feels like a sell the news moment to me

 

[HearshotKDS]

it feels like a sell the news moment to me

Im not touching anything until we see CPI and PPI this week, and then Powell speaking on THU to me seems like the most likely leg up day unless the previous #s are terrible. I do suspect/guess we will see more deals come down the pipe in the near term as the biggest piece of the puzzle is now somewhat in place if only for 90 days.

 

[dennehy]

30% tariffs are still very destructive though, along with the continued uncertainty.

My guess is over time things will normalize, trade relations will be just about what they were before (although some US will be hurt because of the disrupt in supply chains and mfg will leave China more quickly than it has been), the market will do ok but not great, and essentially all of this will have done almost nothing except roil the markets and be in headlines for probably 8 months or so. Completely needless.

 

[Scoot26]

30% tariffs are still very destructive though, along with the continued uncertainty.

My guess is over time things will normalize, trade relations will be just about what they were before (although some US will be hurt because of the disrupt in supply chains and mfg will leave China more quickly than it has been), the market will do ok but not great, and essentially all of this will have done almost nothing except roil the markets and be in headlines for probably 8 months or so. Completely needless.

Trump's baseline for any country seems to be 10%. Which is higher than anything we've had since the 1930s as far as a blanket tariff goes. Individual industries or products have even higher tariffs on them.

Guy doesn't believe in free trade, so we're just gonna be stuck with import taxes for now.

 

[HearshotKDS]

Here's my guys daily chart after today:


3% gap up on the China news this weekend, one random source I found said this was the largest gap up on a monday since the Pfizer vaccine was announced with a "90% effective rate" (probably even less clear what that means now X years later):


Its tough for me to trade on these huge leaps or drops because you are ultimately relying on support levels from months ago that are more and more only relevant to the algorithms of the big trading firms. Luckily those have a huge impact on our markets but it still feels like doing trapeze with a very flimsy net. Below is the SPY 5m chart with the red line as the 25 day ema, you can see we basically followed this all day, dipped below it briefly close to the end of trading but then rallied successfully above it.





As mentioned im 100% cash because of I feel the market is driven more by tweets than by fundamentals currently. With that said since April 7 there has been a very clear up trend in the market and with what I expect to be several further trade deals announced I'm likely going to swim with the current at some point this week. I think the market is paying more attention to the fact that Trump is willing to walk off the crazy initial numbers in his deal moreso than the individual merits of each deal.

Concerning to me though are 2 things:

1. we've had like 8 Doji tops in a row and no retrace to the downside yet
2. given the crazy gap up over the weekend if PPI and CPI numbers dont beat there is a very good chance we fill the gap in trading sometime this week

If we do retrace down to 570 to fill the weekend gap though it would in my mind be a very good entrance point to play a bounce back to 580 - i suspected we would spend multiple weeks bouncing between 570-580 and while we spent 1 week ranging between 560-570 this is our first entrance to 580s. I still think we will move sideways in a range around 57X-58X and may try and play a bounce if we hit the lower end of that range.

 

[knoxville7]

Here's my guys daily chart after today:
View attachment 45635

3% gap up on the China news this weekend, one random source I found said this was the largest gap up on a monday since the Pfizer vaccine was announced with a "90% effective rate" (probably even less clear what that means now X years later):
View attachment 45637

Its tough for me to trade on these huge leaps or drops because you are ultimately relying on support levels from months ago that are more and more only relevant to the algorithms of the big trading firms. Luckily those have a huge impact on our markets but it still feels like doing trapeze with a very flimsy net. Below is the SPY 5m chart with the red line as the 25 day ema, you can see we basically followed this all day, dipped below it briefly close to the end of trading but then rallied successfully above it.

View attachment 45636



As mentioned im 100% cash because of I feel the market is driven more by tweets than by fundamentals currently. With that said since April 7 there has been a very clear up trend in the market and with what I expect to be several further trade deals announced I'm likely going to swim with the current at some point this week. I think the market is paying more attention to the fact that Trump is willing to walk off the crazy initial numbers in his deal moreso than the individual merits of each deal.

Concerning to me though are 2 things:

1. we've had like 8 Doji tops in a row and no retrace to the downside yet
2. given the crazy gap up over the weekend if PPI and CPI numbers dont beat there is a very good chance we fill the gap in trading sometime this week

If we do retrace down to 570 to fill the weekend gap though it would in my mind be a very good entrance point to play a bounce back to 580 - i suspected we would spend multiple weeks bouncing between 570-580 and while we spent 1 week ranging between 560-570 this is our first entrance to 570s. I still think we will move sideways in a range around 57X-58X and may try and play a bounce if we hit the lower end of that range.

i took a lil off the top about an hour ago at all time highs for a couple stocks

the 3% yesterday with the near 2% gain today in the NASDAQ has me feeling like tomorrow has to be a down day

note - never try to time the markets!

 

[HearshotKDS]

I think we’ll test 590-595 this week.

We hit 590 at 12:50 EST I wish I had enough conviction on the markets movement to play this leg, but hindsight is 20/20.

 

[HearshotKDS]

Heres my guys weekly chart:


Market has displayed what can only be described as "re1ard strength" this week. Almost all of the fundamental indicators are showing strong overbought and pointing at a pullback, but this market feels very detached from fundamentals for whatever reason. Here is the daily chart up to THU, we hit a high of 594.50 today which matches my prediction from Monday:



This week came out of nowhere and we are so far above the moving averages it is hard for me to trade, so I will wait and pray for a pullback back down to fill the gap from last weekend (570-577) to load on calls. Market has moved strangely the last 2 weeks and to me it almost feels like we are getting a huge influx of "anonymous" liquidity - maybe its silent QE from the fed or maybe this is the middle east promised investments coming through, i dont know but to me it feels like in 15 years we're going to find out some major player was quietly dumping a ton of cash into the market at this time.

Regardless, ignoring the macro-conditions that are still an elephant in the room, most of the indicators are pointing to a pullback for a "healthy" market. Vix is beat to hell, credit spreads are down, etc. so at some point it has to come down, right? Right?!?

 

[Hawkeye OG]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1923118843141996874

 

[knoxville7]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1923118843141996874

Sooo he expects the market to crash but bitchess to keep buying overpriced makeup?!

That don’t add up

 

[HearshotKDS]

Sooo he expects the market to crash but bitchess to keep buying overpriced makeup?!

That don’t add up

Burry has infamously predicted 17 of the last 2 recessions.

 

[Hawkeye OG]

Sooo he expects the market to crash but bitchess to keep buying overpriced makeup?!

That don’t add up

Women are still ugly in a recession man

 

[DC]

Ya'll are doing good work in this thread. Just tell me you're all accumulating a bag of XRP a little at a time as well.

 

[HearshotKDS]

Looks like we're finally starting our retrace:

This could just be a sell off but as mentioned I think we were way overdue for a normal/healthy retrace. The purple line in the chart is the 20d ema, I think we go down to test it in the next 3-7 days of trading (it moves everyday but will be around 572-573) which would also effectively close last weekends gap. I'll probably open a small position betting on further move down, likely 580p and 575p 2-3 weeks out but then watch those like a hawk.

 

[knoxville7]

Looks like we're finally starting our retrace:
View attachment 45791
This could just be a sell off but as mentioned I think we were way overdue for a normal/healthy retrace. The purple line in the chart is the 20d ema, I think we go down to test it in the next 3-7 days of trading (it moves everyday but will be around 572-573) which would also effectively close last weekends gap. I'll probably open a small position betting on further move down, likely 580p and 575p 2-3 weeks out but then watch those like a hawk.

yep, we seem to be range bound for the time being

 

[knoxville7]

yep, we seem to be range bound for the time being

Welp, one way to break out of a range is for Trumpy to wake up from another dream about tariffs and start threatening Europe with 50% tariffs and telling apple to pay the tariffs themselves for all iPhones not made in the USA

What a freaking dope