HearshotKDS
Well-known member
- Joined:
- Sep 9, 2012
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- Location:
- Lake Forest
Here's my guys weekly chart:
The market still feels like it wants to recover and that any meaningful good news will cause a big jump, but we are starting to get back to resistance levels that the pre-tariff "healthy" market took months to breach (570 and 580). Random guess based only on my gut but I think next week gets into this range and then trades sideways for a few weeks until we get relevant news to push it one direction or the other.
The general pricing trend looks obviously up but I still have a nagging feeling that we may be sitting on a house of cards - market is pricing in first rate cut from Powell in July and if for example he decides to push that to later we could see a significant tumble. It does feel a bit like the market is currently "pricing" for Trump to walk back most if not all of the tariffs and so I suspect trade deals made will be very positively received and setbacks or even delays will start to drag down prices as businesses come to grips with the possibility that they are going to have to find a solution to a billion % tariffs on the worlds biggest or only supplier for key components in X industry.
My equities port is full cash as I still dont have confidence in this market but I will opportunistically make plays if we get trade news or at least the rumor of progress/setbacks in that area.
The market still feels like it wants to recover and that any meaningful good news will cause a big jump, but we are starting to get back to resistance levels that the pre-tariff "healthy" market took months to breach (570 and 580). Random guess based only on my gut but I think next week gets into this range and then trades sideways for a few weeks until we get relevant news to push it one direction or the other.
The general pricing trend looks obviously up but I still have a nagging feeling that we may be sitting on a house of cards - market is pricing in first rate cut from Powell in July and if for example he decides to push that to later we could see a significant tumble. It does feel a bit like the market is currently "pricing" for Trump to walk back most if not all of the tariffs and so I suspect trade deals made will be very positively received and setbacks or even delays will start to drag down prices as businesses come to grips with the possibility that they are going to have to find a solution to a billion % tariffs on the worlds biggest or only supplier for key components in X industry.
My equities port is full cash as I still dont have confidence in this market but I will opportunistically make plays if we get trade news or at least the rumor of progress/setbacks in that area.
