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much deserved! enjoy the fancy tacos!
Stock Market/Investing
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TezMaKai
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Dow down almost 4000 dollars in 2 days.
Make America Broke again.
Make America Broke again.
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La Plancha Loca?
HearshotKDS
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Hell yeah, a fellow man of culture I see.
HearshotKDS
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Weekly chart for 4/1-4/4
No one needs a bunch of technical bologne to tell them this was a bad week for the markets, but perhaps to illustrate what kind of rarified air we are in:
For reference - this is equal to '87 crash, the dotcom bubble burst, the 2008 financial crisis - we have in many ways surpassed what covid did to the market. I am saddened to see that retail is still throwing cash into this dumpsterfire - if any of you are reading this and thinking of "buying the dip" dont touch your wallet this is not the bottom.
I am a big believer in technical analysis being able to indicate market direction - we have dropped so much there's not a ton of recent price levels you can use for analysis, but comparing price movement to the 2020 covid crash:
In the 2020 crash (graph on the left) we had 3 consecutive gap down days before finding a rough bottom that the market eventually recovered from. If we apply that to the current chart (graph on the right) we are due another gap down on Monday. Markets do learn from past movement, I dont expect the gap down to be as severe as what we saw in '20 but I am confident we go lower Monday.
Next week we have several earnings reports for several large banks and airlines - banks in particular are likely ot have bad earnings given what has already happened in the market since January and even worse will be their revised guidance for q2 - these are going to provide downward pricing pressure outside of the macro economic conditions that have sabotaged the economic status quo. Powell spoke today in the FOMC briefing and basically said the fed is not going to come down off the machine and save the day with rate cuts. I really dont see anything that the market can use as a turning point in the near future.
Here is the weekly chart i will be trading off of for SPY, i am not super confident in the support levels as we are in such rare conditions that they have had to go back several months to find relevant supports:
A technical definition of a Bear market is a 20% reduction from ATH = that would be $490 for SPY/4905 for SPX. With very near mathematical certainty we will test those levels in the next 2-3 weeks of trading, with almost 80% chance of reaching that level in the next week. IV has skyrocketed as VIX has finally started to catch up to what we are seeing in the indexes, be careful with long term options for those interested, but right now I think shorting every pump we see is going to be a winning strategy for the short term future.
Edit: still a little drunk when I wrote this Covid happened in 2020 not 2022 - too many 2s and too much 1738.
No one needs a bunch of technical bologne to tell them this was a bad week for the markets, but perhaps to illustrate what kind of rarified air we are in:
For reference - this is equal to '87 crash, the dotcom bubble burst, the 2008 financial crisis - we have in many ways surpassed what covid did to the market. I am saddened to see that retail is still throwing cash into this dumpsterfire - if any of you are reading this and thinking of "buying the dip" dont touch your wallet this is not the bottom.
I am a big believer in technical analysis being able to indicate market direction - we have dropped so much there's not a ton of recent price levels you can use for analysis, but comparing price movement to the 2020 covid crash:
In the 2020 crash (graph on the left) we had 3 consecutive gap down days before finding a rough bottom that the market eventually recovered from. If we apply that to the current chart (graph on the right) we are due another gap down on Monday. Markets do learn from past movement, I dont expect the gap down to be as severe as what we saw in '20 but I am confident we go lower Monday.
Next week we have several earnings reports for several large banks and airlines - banks in particular are likely ot have bad earnings given what has already happened in the market since January and even worse will be their revised guidance for q2 - these are going to provide downward pricing pressure outside of the macro economic conditions that have sabotaged the economic status quo. Powell spoke today in the FOMC briefing and basically said the fed is not going to come down off the machine and save the day with rate cuts. I really dont see anything that the market can use as a turning point in the near future.
Here is the weekly chart i will be trading off of for SPY, i am not super confident in the support levels as we are in such rare conditions that they have had to go back several months to find relevant supports:
A technical definition of a Bear market is a 20% reduction from ATH = that would be $490 for SPY/4905 for SPX. With very near mathematical certainty we will test those levels in the next 2-3 weeks of trading, with almost 80% chance of reaching that level in the next week. IV has skyrocketed as VIX has finally started to catch up to what we are seeing in the indexes, be careful with long term options for those interested, but right now I think shorting every pump we see is going to be a winning strategy for the short term future.
Edit: still a little drunk when I wrote this Covid happened in 2020 not 2022 - too many 2s and too much 1738.
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Trump did say he'd bring prices down, amirite?
HearshotKDS
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Futures opened up real bleak:
HearshotKDS
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Nikkei: -7.83% and hit circuit breakers
Hang Seng: -13.22%
TaiEx: -9.7%
ASX 200: -4.23%
S&P futures: Bloodbath
Premarket: Horror Movie set
Think we see another big red day, the closer S&P gets to 5000 at open the more tempted im going to be to slam Puts. Premarket low was somewhere around 483 and I think we probably test those levels again today. I will very likely be picking up 4950, 4900, and 4850 puts dated 2 weeks out at open, unless it tanks right before 9:30 and opens below those levels.
Edit: wrote this at 9 am EST when premarket price was over 495, as feared it dropped to below 490 in the 25 minutes since and so im probably going to be in wait and see mode at open.
Hang Seng: -13.22%
TaiEx: -9.7%
ASX 200: -4.23%
S&P futures: Bloodbath
Premarket: Horror Movie set
Think we see another big red day, the closer S&P gets to 5000 at open the more tempted im going to be to slam Puts. Premarket low was somewhere around 483 and I think we probably test those levels again today. I will very likely be picking up 4950, 4900, and 4850 puts dated 2 weeks out at open, unless it tanks right before 9:30 and opens below those levels.
Only premarket so far but im going to count this #CalledIt.
Edit: wrote this at 9 am EST when premarket price was over 495, as feared it dropped to below 490 in the 25 minutes since and so im probably going to be in wait and see mode at open.
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HearshotKDS
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Someone leaked a 90 day pause on tariff rumor causing the pump but then trump said "i never said that and im not considering it" and she go back down. Some Reuters intern looking at jail time lol hopefully they made enough to make it worth it.
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lol, market just looking for any kind of "positive" news.
HearshotKDS
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To expand on that, market jumped 5% in 8 minutes on justthe rumor that the president was willing to temporarily consider not being re1arded for a few months. The market wanted to recover at 5500, its the ChatGPT inspired economic plan that has dragged it down from there.
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Pretty sure they used Grok given Elon's influence.
But hey, I get it for the market, they're looking for any sanity.
However, the market is now climbing back again I see...
HearshotKDS
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With such a low open I think market was due for a dead cat bounce - Bear markets rarely go straight down its usually a series of lower highs followed by lower lows, but with this 90 day nonsense I am spooked and suspect some sort of fuckery is currently going on.
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My portfolio actually showing a gain at the moment, but a little bit concerned about the close because those that decided to move out of equity exposure in their 401k over the weekend, that selling is normally done on the close of the following trading session.
HearshotKDS
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Here's my daily chart for SPY:
I think we've found a temporary bottom, but the looming issue with China concerns me that we may have more turbulence ahead. Trump has proven to be stupid with his tariffs and China has proven to be stubborn with their responses to past slights - a 104% blanket tariff doesnt work for our current economy but mango got big mad and is proposing to commit to that by the 9th. Still, I am going to wait until pricing moves farther up into my channel before making a new position.
Vix is elevated but as it comes down and the administration makes more waves in the news there is always the potential for another pop in Vix leading to a drop in markets. With yesterdays lows S&P is officially in a Bear market depending on your definition (some institutions just want price to hit -20%, some need the market to close at -20% to consider but thats basically semantics), so I do think we could be around the corner from a true bottom. Right now the uncertainty around US economic/trade policy is looming over the markets head like a sword of damocles, however yesterdays fake news pop showed without this issue the market is ready to begin recovery. If the US was to actually pause the tariffs for 90 days I think we would see S&P return to 600 within 3 weeks.
I think we've found a temporary bottom, but the looming issue with China concerns me that we may have more turbulence ahead. Trump has proven to be stupid with his tariffs and China has proven to be stubborn with their responses to past slights - a 104% blanket tariff doesnt work for our current economy but mango got big mad and is proposing to commit to that by the 9th. Still, I am going to wait until pricing moves farther up into my channel before making a new position.
Vix is elevated but as it comes down and the administration makes more waves in the news there is always the potential for another pop in Vix leading to a drop in markets. With yesterdays lows S&P is officially in a Bear market depending on your definition (some institutions just want price to hit -20%, some need the market to close at -20% to consider but thats basically semantics), so I do think we could be around the corner from a true bottom. Right now the uncertainty around US economic/trade policy is looming over the markets head like a sword of damocles, however yesterdays fake news pop showed without this issue the market is ready to begin recovery. If the US was to actually pause the tariffs for 90 days I think we would see S&P return to 600 within 3 weeks.
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I get the sense the intent was to spook markets and throw people into a frenzy to negotiate.
I think the market will continue to slide this week, maybe next week.
Then suddenly trade deals will make the market happy again.
I think they buy cheap PUTs and then do this shit, make lots of money, then buy CALLs and announce deals, rinse and repeat.
HearshotKDS
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Might have declared a temporary bottom too soon, VIX jumped up over 58 today and what started as +3% start ended up being a worse then -2% close. We get FOMC meeting minutes tomorrow at 2 pm EST, one thing I am watching is that the market is currently pricing in 3 rate in the next 3 meetings while the JPOW has *so far* been pretty clear he wants to wait before making further cuts.
Here's my guys daily SPY chart:
There are a million different little stats about how the market has moved the last 4 days that show this is a niche event that doesnt play like the normal trading days - I have very little confidence in which way the market is moving overall. I think tomorrow could find new lows, or it could just as easily open somewhere between 505-515 and just tread water for the day. I had a lot of success in short scalping trades today as the intraday price moved in pretty clear wyckoff cycles until the last 15 minutes before close.
We now wait with bated breath on how China will respond to being officially tariffed at 104%. RIP Christmas, hope your kids dont like toys. But as especially if we open around 500 and can keep over that leading into CPI THU which I do expect a small relief rally for then I feel like short dated (1-2 weeks out) 590/585/580 puts are an enticing opportunity with the underlying strategy to not hold them for longer than 36 hours.
Here's my guys daily SPY chart:
There are a million different little stats about how the market has moved the last 4 days that show this is a niche event that doesnt play like the normal trading days - I have very little confidence in which way the market is moving overall. I think tomorrow could find new lows, or it could just as easily open somewhere between 505-515 and just tread water for the day. I had a lot of success in short scalping trades today as the intraday price moved in pretty clear wyckoff cycles until the last 15 minutes before close.
We now wait with bated breath on how China will respond to being officially tariffed at 104%. RIP Christmas, hope your kids dont like toys. But as especially if we open around 500 and can keep over that leading into CPI THU which I do expect a small relief rally for then I feel like short dated (1-2 weeks out) 590/585/580 puts are an enticing opportunity with the underlying strategy to not hold them for longer than 36 hours.
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