Stock Market/Investing

[Scoot26]

I believe he knows exactly what he is doing.

I don't. People around him probably do though.

 

[HearshotKDS]

Here's the daily chart.


I was lucky in that I saw the premarket price (sub 490 until last 30 minutes) and thought we were going to open super low so I didnt trade at open. Came back from a meeting at work and saw one of the biggest green candles on SPY ive ever seen. Im hopeful the administration comes to its senses on the tariff plan but I will be keeping almost all of my cash on the sidelines for now - I cant trade in a market where a random tweet at any time can cause historic price swings in a 15 minute period. I do suspect we will see an upwards trajectory until the next stupid thing happens (who knows when that will be), but I need a few more days to allow a new channel to develop before committing to anything.

 

[Szlachcic]

Market Manipulation at its best.

If tariffs are good then why pause? If they are bad, then why this is so much drama.

 

[Ares]

I am waiting for all my cash to settle then I'm transferring my full balance out of Schwabb.

Why play this market, perfect time to find a new trading platform.

 

[Szlachcic]

I am waiting for all my cash to settle then I'm transferring my full balance out of Schwabb.

Why play this market, perfect time to find a new trading platform.

While back, I have moved all to Edward Jones, and never looked back..

 

[HearshotKDS]

Here's my guys weekly chart after last week:


This week the S&P recovered a lot of the ground lost last week but we are still seeing pretty clear downward movement. We actually broke through and lowered the channel bottom from last weeks chart without moving the top range. Momentum is a thing and we may see the start of a new bull channel, or we may slide back down to the bottom range of the channel we have been in since February. I'll be keeping my eyes on 8 ema (neon blue line) that will be around 554.50, that in my mind is the most likely place to see a rejection than retrace downward - or if it gets broken and stays above it then I go forward assuming we are in the start of a bull channel. The administrations fiscal fuckery has really rocked a lot of investor confidence in the market, I have no idea which way its going to go. One thing to note is we have earnings report for a lot of large banks this week and they are likely to revise forward guidance given the trade changes which may have a downward pull on the market outside of the elephant in the room that is the main mover.

 

[DaaBears]

Here's my guys weekly chart after last week:
View attachment 45012

This week the S&P recovered a lot of the ground lost last week but we are still seeing pretty clear downward movement. We actually broke through and lowered the channel bottom from last weeks chart without moving the top range. Momentum is a thing and we may see the start of a new bull channel, or we may slide back down to the bottom range of the channel we have been in since February. I'll be keeping my eyes on 8 ema (neon blue line) that will be around 554.50, that in my mind is the most likely place to see a rejection than retrace downward - or if it gets broken and stays above it then I go forward assuming we are in the start of a bull channel. The administrations fiscal fuckery has really rocked a lot of investor confidence in the market, I have no idea which way its going to go. One thing to note is we have earnings report for a lot of large banks this week and they are likely to revise forward guidance given the trade changes which may have a downward pull on the market outside of the elephant in the room that is the main mover.

When the S&P was down below 5000, the Elliott Wave guys were saying 4300 then maybe as low as 2600 long term, and said the only thing that would change that is a close over 5488. We traded right up to that level and turned lower. At this moment, around midnight EST, S&P futures are trading up around 45 to 5436, again not too far away from their level or yours. Of course in this volatile market that could change dramatically by tomorrow's open or throughout the day.

I am also very unsure of anything at this time, especially considering the odd action of 10 year treasuries and the dollar. Going to be interesting.

 

[knoxville7]

When the S&P was down below 5000, the Elliott Wave guys were saying 4300 then maybe as low as 2600 long term, and said the only thing that would change that is a close over 5488. We traded right up to that level and turned lower. At this moment, around midnight EST, S&P futures are trading up around 45 to 5436, again not too far away from their level or yours. Of course in this volatile market that could change dramatically by tomorrow's open or throughout the day.

I am also very unsure of anything at this time, especially considering the odd action of 10 year treasuries and the dollar. Going to be interesting.

We cleared 5500+ on it today

 

[DaaBears]

We cleared 5500+ on it today

Momentarily, but again it sold off from there. This is starting to look like a process.

Good to hear from you. Can't wait till we get back to our college football and Bears discussions. Right now the Bears message board to me is quite repetitive with different versions of the same topics over and over.

 

[knoxville7]

Momentarily, but again it sold off from there. This is starting to look like a process.

Good to hear from you. Can't wait till we get back to our college football and Bears discussions. Right now the Bears message board to me is quite repetitive with different versions of the same topics over and over.

It gives me some hope that since we keep hitting it, we at least aren’t hitting lower highs…yet

Same, meaningful college football and bears talk.

Like you said, right now it’s the same repetitive stuff about whomst everyone thinks should be drafted and talk of measurements of the appendages of 20 year old college kids

 

[knoxville7]

are we back?!?!

 

[DaaBears]

are we back?!?!

I do appreciate this rally this week very much. But I am still 50/50 on future direction. Would definitely like to see a close over 5488 in S&P which we haven't had yet. Maybe, we hang on today.

 

[knoxville7]

I do appreciate this rally this week very much. But I am still 50/50 on future direction. Would definitely like to see a close over 5488 in S&P which we haven't had yet. Maybe, we hang on today.

1.5 hours to go...currently at 5507

 

[DaaBears]

1.5 hours to go...currently at 5507

We did it lol. My confidence though remains low as this is such a news driven market. I do think the low 5700s are doable in the short term.

 

[knoxville7]

We did it lol. My confidence though remains low as this is such a news driven market. I do think the low 5700s are doable in the short term.

agreed, its hard to have much confidence in either direction at the moment

only thing ill say is that the thing markets hate the most is uncertainty, and there certainly is plenty of that these days

 

[DaaBears]

agreed, its hard to have much confidence in either direction at the moment

only thing ill say is that the thing markets hate the most is uncertainty, and there certainly is plenty of that these days

Agreed, I have never seen this much certainly. Hopefully, climbing a wall of worry proves to be positive.

 

[Chief Walking Stick]

Stfu and kill yourself

 

[HearshotKDS]

Here's my guys weekly chart for SPY:


With futures prices up this morning I think it is likely we are truly in the upwards channel. It still feels like playing anything in this market is a house of cards that can be undone with a single tweet - Im going to look to open decent positions playing SPYs return to the 20 and 50 EMAs (green and pink lines) at market open on Monday.

 

[HearshotKDS]

Daily Chart for today:


We hit the 20d ema today although I given the terrible economic news and the horror movie set at open i'm still shocked. We're now seeing a ton of huge beats in postmarket from META and MSFT - these are massive market movers and had great Q1s. More likely than ever we revisit 50d ema (yellow squiggly line). I opened up positions at 5/30 553c, 557c, and some lotto 564c on Monday like I said I would in my Sunday post and am already up double digit % on every layer.


Im still skeptical at the mechanicals behind this movement given what we are seeing in the economy, but the market seems to ignore bad news and is imo set to explode on good news if we can get it. If the administration could actually close one of these trade deals they keep talking up I think the market would jump into the 570s, but they need to close it and announce it soon to take advantage of the significant tailwinds we currently have for god knows why. Im still mostly cash right now as I dont trust the macro-conditions but I am taking swings with a small % of my port and this one seems to be hitting.

Edit: Sold these at open even though I probably shouldnt have, wanted to lock in the 20-40% because it feels like we are perpetually 1 tweet away from a crash.

 

[knoxville7]

Daily Chart for today:
View attachment 45462

We hit the 20d ema today although I given the terrible economic news and the horror movie set at open i'm still shocked. We're now seeing a ton of huge beats in postmarket from META and MSFT - these are massive market movers and had great Q1s. More likely than ever we revisit 50d ema (yellow squiggly line). I opened up positions at 5/30 553c, 557c, and some lotto 564c on Monday like I said I would in my Sunday post and am already up double digit % on every layer.
View attachment 45463

Im still skeptical at the mechanicals behind this movement given what we are seeing in the economy, but the market seems to ignore bad news and is imo set to explode on good news if we can get it. If the administration could actually close one of these trade deals they keep talking up I think the market would jump into the 570s, but they need to close it and announce it soon to take advantage of the significant tailwinds we currently have for god knows why. Im still mostly cash right now as I dont trust the macro-conditions but I am taking swings with a small % of my port and this one seems to be hitting.

spot on take

the market in the short term looks set to go up. but by summertime, things will start to take a downturn as the Q2 results start to come out and companies miss EPS and start to revise yearly goals further downward.

right now, ride the wave. but yeah, be careful and ready to adjust