Straight baseball talk

[MRubio52]

I know it's an often asked question but when do YOU think the Cubs will be up and running and ready for sustained success that the vast majority of meatball fans(like myself )can hope for what was promised.
You being a BP writer and all.

I have no idea as it depends on a lot of things happening.

A few trades moves the date a lot, I've always thought of this as a five year plan with years 4 and 5 seeing improvement.

I know that there's a base of bats that I really like from a scouting perspective. ETAs on most of those guys is still 2015 and I doubt they are stars right away.

I guess I think they start playing better next year and they might improve from there.

I should preface this by saying I'm not much of a fan at this point, I'm well into the impartial observer area. I just like talent, laundry doesn't mean much to me.

I also understand you're kind of poking fun at the whole BP thing. It's fine really.


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[MRubio52]

Also this is straying into THEO/FO talk and I find that droll and completely uninteresting.


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[justaChifan]

No disrespect intended.
Being a casual observer with knowledge of MLB farm systems is a plus.
I just think the kids coming up need some continuity.
There is none here.

 

[chibears55]

No disrespect intended.
Being a casual observer with knowledge of MLB farm systems is a plus.
I just think the kids coming up need some continuity.
There is none here.

None ? By the time they come up in the next yr or two, they will have at least Castillo Rizzo and Castro playing together for 3 + yrs as everyday starters..
With the possibility of having Lake at the very least as a 4th OFer.


On pitching side.. maybe samardzija, but definitely wood and Arrieta on the starters end..
Bullpen has a couple young players that could stick around for the next couple yrs.

So, there will be some continuity on the team..

Of the big 4 , baez bryant and soler have played together at various times, so their familiar with each other and that will help make their transition easier as they come up.

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[justaChifan]

None ? By the time they come up in the next yr or two, they will have at least Castillo Rizzo and Castro playing together for 3 + yrs as everyday starters..
With the possibility of having Lake at the very least as a 4th OFer.


On pitching side.. maybe samardzija, but definitely wood and Arrieta on the starters end..
Bullpen has a couple young players that could stick around for the next couple yrs.

So, there will be some continuity on the team..

Of the big 4 , baez bryant and soler have played together at various times, so their familiar with each other and that will help make their transition easier as they come up.

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So instead of building on to the fairly weak foundation they have this year.
The kids will know they will not go the same way as Samardzija? Give your best and you will not be trade fodder?

 

[chibears55]

So instead of building on to the fairly weak foundation they have this year.
The kids will know they will not go the same way as Samardzija? Give your best and you will not be trade fodder?

Totally different situation their coming into, then where samardzija at right now..
How about they could be looking at getting locked up early as Rizzo and Castro did with 7 yr deals...

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[MRubio52]

My word, the things Yu Darvish can do with a baseball. He threw a curveball straight from hell.


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[JosMin]

I want Yu Darvish to break Nolan Ryan's record for one-hitters. He's gon' do it.

 

[SilenceS]

Yea, Darvish is a monster. Thats why I hated when people compared Tanaka to him. Darvish stuff is just on a different level. Tanaka is looking great and has good stuff, but Darvish is just a monster.

 

[beckdawg]

So... apparently the NL average ERA is 3.54. The last time it was this low was in 1992 when the NL average was 3.51. The past 3 years have been in the 3.70-3.90 range so it still could heat up in the summer. But I think it might be time to start reevaluating what a good ERA is. In 1992 the top 15 NL pitchers had an ERA between 2.08 and 3.00. If we go back to like 2008 you're talking about a range of 2.53 to 3.71 for the top 15 NL pitchers.

Whether or not it is intended, the focus of the front office on offense may actual have been a prudent move since it appears that offense is becoming more scarce while pitching is seemingly becoming easier to find.

Another interesting side note is that while ERA did start to spike in the 90's so has k/9. In 1992, the average k/9 was 5.6. The past 2 years has been the highest ever at 7.6 k/9. I would guess that has a lot to do with the types of hitters. Contact has become secondary to power in a lot of cases.

 

[MRubio52]

All this baseball news and this thread dies? smh.

 

[beckdawg]

All this baseball news and this thread dies? smh.

Which news you referring to? All the pitchers getting hurt?

 

[beckdawg]

I'm curious, does anyone know a good way of measuring consistency? We've recently seen players like Soriano who are very streaky. Rizzo this year has been fairly consistent this year where he either walks or gets a hit but rarely gets 2-3 hits in a game. I'm wondering about the value of consistency vs streaky players. There's a thought that it all averages out over a season. There's also a thought that if you start slow your team can be out of things before you start hitting. Without manually looking at monthly splits I'm not sure of any way to quickly measure consistency.

 

[CSF77]

Not sure. I think you need a mix of both types. Sori was hot in Apr and July. Rammy got hot with the weather. Lee was pretty concistiant with his OBA. Power was low over all except 2 outbursts.

You need a mix. 1 guy hitting all year with a few spark plug types in the middle it balances out in the end.

 

[beckdawg]

Padres staff ace Andrew Cashner was placed on the 15-day DL today after experiencing discomfort and inflammation in his right elbow.

The way this year is going that doesn't sound very good.

 

[JP Hochbaum]

So... apparently the NL average ERA is 3.54. The last time it was this low was in 1992 when the NL average was 3.51. The past 3 years have been in the 3.70-3.90 range so it still could heat up in the summer. But I think it might be time to start reevaluating what a good ERA is. In 1992 the top 15 NL pitchers had an ERA between 2.08 and 3.00. If we go back to like 2008 you're talking about a range of 2.53 to 3.71 for the top 15 NL pitchers.

Whether or not it is intended, the focus of the front office on offense may actual have been a prudent move since it appears that offense is becoming more scarce while pitching is seemingly becoming easier to find.

Another interesting side note is that while ERA did start to spike in the 90's so has k/9. In 1992, the average k/9 was 5.6. The past 2 years has been the highest ever at 7.6 k/9. I would guess that has a lot to do with the types of hitters. Contact has become secondary to power in a lot of cases.

Yeah we have cornered the market on power hitters. There is a possibility that if our prospects pan out we might have half the leagues 30 home run hitters.

 

[beckdawg]

Ok is it just me or do others also feel like defensive shifts kind of put a blemish on games? There's times I don't mind it. For example, a bases loaded situation where you move an outfielder in as a 5th infielder in the late innings since anything in the OF may end up being game over anyways. I'm pretty ok with that. But what bothers me is to see the fairly common shifts for power hitters like Rizzo where you end up with a 3B at short and three guys on the right side of the infield. I get why teams do it but to some extent it just feels cheap. I feel like it devalues great defensive players and just doesn't really seem sporting. And in a lot of cases, there's no real cost to doing it because a lot of the bigger power hitters aren't going to bunt for hits most of the time and if properly executed pitchers can make it difficult put the ball into play in the open area based off pitch selection/location.

 

[brett05]

Batters need to learn to bunt. Period.

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[chibears55]

Ok is it just me or do others also feel like defensive shifts kind of put a blemish on games? There's times I don't mind it. For example, a bases loaded situation where you move an outfielder in as a 5th infielder in the late innings since anything in the OF may end up being game over anyways. I'm pretty ok with that. But what bothers me is to see the fairly common shifts for power hitters like Rizzo where you end up with a 3B at short and three guys on the right side of the infield. I get why teams do it but to some extent it just feels cheap. I feel like it devalues great defensive players and just doesn't really seem sporting. And in a lot of cases, there's no real cost to doing it because a lot of the bigger power hitters aren't going to bunt for hits most of the time and if properly executed pitchers can make it difficult put the ball into play in the open area based off pitch selection/location.

Best way to limit that is by doing what Rizzo did and start bunting or pushing ball to opposite field... looks just like a lined single in box score

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[MRubio52]

Jandel Gustave - Quad Cities River Bandits (HOU Affiliate)

Throws gas but it's straight gas and that shit gets hit a lot. Too much contact for 96-99, slider is a big work in progress but it has the right spin and the arm slot is good for some projection. Didn't see enough to throw grades on him, but he looks like a reliever to me. 6'2, listed at 160, looks like it. Skinny with long limbs. Lower half should fill out, so I don't think the endurance will be an issue. Has no third pitch to speak of and I think he's going to be fastball/slider which is basically the reliever starter kit.

I have notes on Andy Thurman from the same squad as well but I'm filing those to BPro. I like him a lot.