So tell me what I should find positive about this team? I for one would love something to be happy about as I opt to torment myself to tune into a few games in 2014.
The cubs have a top 5 positional prospect at every position save for catcher according to mlb.com's ratings. They wont all pan out but some will. Some here are rightly cautious about the talk about prospects given players like Patterson and Pie in the past. However, that sort of organizational depth isn't very common. I made the comparison in the prospect thread to the 2011 KC Royals system which was consider "the greatest of all time" that year. They had 9 players in the top 100. The cubs almost assuredly will have 8 and they have the #4 pick which is generally a lock to garner a top 50 ranking based on draft position alone and all signs point to another top 5 pick the following year.
Did things work out in KC? Yes and no. By that I mean a lot of prospects failed as you would expect. However, they have a core group of guys today that is close to being a playoff team. Given their financial situation I'm not sure if they will turn the corner without an uptick in Hosmer and Moustakes. KC had a 2013 opening day payroll of $81,871,725. As "cheap" as the cubs have been, they still had an opening day payroll of $106,837,810 and you would expect that to increase some if they ever start renovations. So, you're likely talking a team that like the Royals is fringe playoffs in 2 years time and possibly better with additional revenue to spend. The Royals may have even had poor "luck" in that thus far none of their big 3 turned into a super star. Hosmer has been ok. Moustakes has been a disappointment. Meyers they turned into Shields. If one of the cubs highly touted guys does that would obviously make them a better team than the Royals turned out to be.
They have an extreme amount of payroll flexibility. Assuming they don't make some unexpected big splash/re-signing with what's left of the offseason they will have around $30 mil in committed money toward the 2015 budget. Presumably they are operating with around $105-110 in payroll as that's where they've been the 2 years under Theo. Obviously that makes the 2014 team pretty shitty. However, let's say talks between Homer Bailey and the Reds on an extension break down. The cubs have not only the payroll but also the prospects to make that sort of trade. I use him as an example but obviously there are other possible players this fits.
Whether or not Theo is the savior he's made out to be remains to be seen. I will say this, many of the players they have gone after have worked out. Bryant and Almora were obviously top picks but they were top picks who have been what you would expect in the minors. It hasn't been a case of Ryan Harvey with the #6 pick or Lou Montañez with the #3 pick. The FA's they have signed have worked out ok in general. Feldman, Schierholtz, Navarro and Maholm were all better than expected. Not saying everything worked out as guys like Baker and Fujikawa were hurt and Jackson thus far has been a disappointment. But given what they've actually spent they've came away with decent returns. Even players they failed to land have been good. Sanchez, Ryu and Darvish have pitched quite well. In trades they've done well getting Strop and Wood in particular. So, it's not as though they've been completely incompetent. It's more a case that the decision was to punt the past several years. Whether or not that was the "right move" is open to debate. Either side can make arguments for pro/cons. But, what I'm getting at here is they seem to have a clue what to look for in players.
Since I asked you why you're still a cubs fan maybe I should respond with why I'm optimistic. Besides the above, I am actually glad to see players like Lake and hopefully Vitters play in the majors. Maybe they end up sucking. But they have earned the right to have a shot based off their minors performance. I really didn't want to see Soriano in LF next year. Are they a worse team without him? Maybe. But I've seen what the cubs can do with him the past 3 years. Seeing young players grow into major league players is what I enjoy about the game. Even the best teams in the league will lose 45% of their games. So, I don't like tying my enjoyment to wins. In a similar regard, seeing players like Feldman and Schierholtz having surprise years is fun for me. Also, I sort of feel that if you don't see the start of a championship team you miss out. A lot of people just want to show up when they are a playoff team but I feel that's sort of like starting to read a book 2/3's in. That's what I meant when I mentioned finding enjoyment in something. Even if the cubs go out and set the record for the worst team ever, there are things worth watching to me even if it's just something like Wood having a break out year. Maybe I don't watch every game but there's always some story line worth following. I'm hoping Arrieta follows suit this year.
As for you, I'm not sure it's worth you watching until midseason unless they happen to be a hell of a lot better than any of us are expecting. At least at midseason you're likely to see Alcantara and Baez and if their cups of coffee turn out well 2015 looks far less bleak. On the other hand, by midseason I expect Shark to be traded. So, that's probably pretty shitty for you considering he's your favorite player. The way I see it though is 2014 is likely the transition point for when they go from rock bottom to when some of their top guys start coming up and hopefully they start building year after year. And if any of the young guys surprise all the better.
