The Cubs Hot Stove Action Thread

[theberserkfury]

Roberto Hernandez seems off the table now as well...

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/eye-on...hillies-agree-to-terms-with-roberto-hernandez

 

[beckdawg]

I sort of like the Ruggiano trade. He might just be to platoon with the lefty split of Schierholtz. But, if he can play like he did 2 years ago he is the type of guy I felt the cubs needed.

 

[CSF77]

I sort of like the Ruggiano trade. He might just be to platoon with the lefty split of Schierholtz. But, if he can play like he did 2 years ago he is the type of guy I felt the cubs needed.

We are talking about 200 AB's on RF and some days off for CF and LF. The deal in it self was fine. But the fact it was the high point is the problem.

They went into the offseason needing a SP, a OBA bat a late inning RP and Schierholtz's platoon partner ( if he was not traded)

What they have done is band aids and low impact moves. No comitments to address the OBA issue and a hollow promise to offer a contract to Tanaka if he is posted.

This is not what you would expect out of the 4th largest market.

 

[beckdawg]

We are talking about 200 AB's on RF and some days off for CF and LF. The deal in it self was fine. But the fact it was the high point is the problem.

Your assumption is there aren't still players out there than can improve the team.

 

[beckdawg]

Red Sox apparently DFA'd Alex Castellanos. He's only had 43 MLB PAs so it's difficult to say what he is on the MLB level but in 2013 he had 439 PA's in AAA and had 19 HRs, 75 runs, 61 RBIs 19 SBs with a .257 avg and a .347 OBP. In 2012, he had 407 PA's in AAA with 17 HRs, 74 runs, 52 RBIs, 16 SBs with a .328 avgs and a .420 OBP. Definitely think he'd be worth taking a flyer on.

 

[beckdawg]

The cubs apparently have a minor league deal with Tsuyoshi Wada. That's the 3rd lefty they've added this year. Makes you wonder if they aren't considering moving Russell.

 

[CSF77]

Your assumption is there aren't still players out there than can improve the team.

I question a lot right now. They could fix the problem with cash. They could comit to Tanaka or Choo.

Say trade for Gardner then over pay for tanaka

Or Sign Baker then pay Choo's demands.

They have been focusing on a closer but I believe Stoop can do the job. They may have Viz back in S/T.

Over all if they go into the season as is they are going to hit 100 losses again. Regardless if Bryant or Baez promotes.

The bottom line is they need to stop sticking their fingers in the leaks and they need to spend on permanate solutions.


Take the OF. They are choosing to go with 5 4th OF. None of them are starters on a contender. But that is the opening day outfield.

Last year they ran a platoon a starting LF and a passable CF. So the OF is worse in general. It maybe more athletic but the 40 HR's lost from CF and LF is not going to be made up with Lake and Sweeney. 30 maybe a reach. That is not even getting into Dejesus's .360 OBA. None on the team were that good.

So the answer I see is frugality and not giving a effort to put out a team that is even passable as a major league roster.

 

[beckdawg]

I'm not saying you're wrong just that it's still early. IMO, the cubs are holding on to money for the Tanaka situation. Cynics would argue that they are just being cheap but the facts are they've spent around $100 mil the past 2 years under this regime when they were getting rid of bad contracts. They sit some where around $60 mil right now and have barely spent. Maybe I'm being naive here but I really can't see them sitting on a 70-80 mil payroll. I'm not saying they will blow it up to $120+ mil but I don't see any reason they wont spend what they have the past couple of years.

If you assume $20 mil for a posting fee for Tanaka you're probably looking at something in the $15 mil AAV in my opinion. Maybe a 5 year $75 mil or 6 year $90 mil type deal. If the cubs pushed that $20 mil fee to this year and added $15 mil on top of it you're close to that $100 mil total. Now there is of course the possibility he isn't posted. If that happens, making a run at Choo would make a lot of sense. But I think the reason you aren't seeing a ton of movement from them is because if they sign Tanaka to that sort of deal they wont have much room left over.

 

[CSF77]

The chances of signing Tanaka are slim. He has the choice to pick and you have to guess there will be better teams that want him.

So in view of this you have to look what is out there. Choo is looking at 7 years. He fills a legit need and is better than any player in the current line up. So make the investment. He slots in CF and pushes Sweeney and Lake into a platoon.

Looking forward Almora promotes Choo moves to LF and Almora to CF. Both hit 1-2 in the line up.

That makes sense.

Waiting around for a long shot in Tanaka is letting talent pass by.

Baker could be signed. He put up 3 solid games and was not even at 100%. He slots into the 3 hole behind Wood


Those are 2 legit moves that work going forward. Not waiting or gambling etc


What happens if Tanaka signs elsewhere and Baker and Choo go off the board? Rusin as the #5? If that happens the empty seats will just grow and grow.

 

[CSF77]

But I see payroll at 72 mil post Arb cases. They could add Choo at 15 mil this year and give Baker 6 mil with performance bonuses and still be under 100 mil.

What happens is Baez should be on the team in the summer and the line up would look like Choo, Castro, Rizzo, Baez, Schierholtz.

Now at this point a lot would depend on Alacantara. If he looks ready then you move Baez to 3B and push Alcantara to 2B. When Bryant promotes he should be pushed to RF. That becomes a line up that can generate runs.

Then looking into 2015 they would have a few trade chips to go after a ace via trade.

 

[beckdawg]

The chances of signing Tanaka are slim. He has the choice to pick and you have to guess there will be better teams that want him.

So in view of this you have to look what is out there. Choo is looking at 7 years. He fills a legit need and is better than any player in the current line up. So make the investment. He slots in CF and pushes Sweeney and Lake into a platoon.

Looking forward Almora promotes Choo moves to LF and Almora to CF. Both hit 1-2 in the line up.

That makes sense.

Waiting around for a long shot in Tanaka is letting talent pass by.

Baker could be signed. He put up 3 solid games and was not even at 100%. He slots into the 3 hole behind Wood


Those are 2 legit moves that work going forward. Not waiting or gambling etc


What happens if Tanaka signs elsewhere and Baker and Choo go off the board? Rusin as the #5? If that happens the empty seats will just grow and grow.

Don't agree on the Tanaka thing. Are there teams that offer him a better shot to win in 2014? Probably. Are there better teams that offer him a shot to win over the life of his deal? That's debatable. If the cubs prospects even remotely pan out they should have one of the best offenses in the national league if not baseball. Their pitching is questionable but if Tanaka is a #1 and if the cubs get him the view on the future rotation will drastically change. As for Choo, I agree he makes sense but he wont play CF. They'd move him to a corner slot and play Lake there. Choo is a below average CF but can be an average corner infielder and Lake has much better range.

As for the what if on Tanaka, it's possible but if you view him as the best player available and you really want to get him this is what you have to do. The decision on Tanaka is suppose to come soon. The fact Choo hasn't already signed tells me this is going to go a lot longer than your typical FAs especially if the rumors of him demanding a 6-7 year deal. It honestly wouldn't shock me if he is over played in the same manner as Bourn was last season.

 

[CSF77]

I doubt he will look 2-3 years down the road. He will be looking at the offer then he will look at teams that are concistaint contenders. Then he will look at the market and tradition.

Market Cubs big but been acting small market under current ownership.

Tradition: losing

Trends: frugal spendings. Not comiting to a winning tradition


Seriously looking at the Cubs. 2 things first come to mind. 1. 100 loser. 2. Bartman. So loser and Jinxed and not making a effort to change the culture.

Like I said slim at best. Most are not gluten for punishment. Not to mention he is a winner. See what he did last post season. And for a second think: does this guy want to plAy on a traditional bad team?

Again it is a long shot even if he is posted.

 

[beckdawg]

I really doubt that sort of talk comes into it. I assume he'll be looking at one thing.... money. Whether or not the cubs offer the most is debatable but I can't imagine he'd turn down someone based on the things you've mentioned if they offered the most money.

 

[CSF77]

You are taking out the human factor. He is going from a champ to a chump. He put up some huge IP in the post season just to win.

Winning matters to this guy. So making the jump winning will be a top concideration.

Choo on the other hand can be bought. Fact he has Boras pretty much conferms that payday is his top concern.

You can't bundle up all players into the same type.

 

[beckdawg]

You are taking out the human factor. He is going from a champ to a chump. He put up some huge IP in the post season just to win.

Winning matters to this guy. So making the jump winning will be a top concideration.

Choo on the other hand can be bought. Fact he has Boras pretty much conferms that payday is his top concern.

You can't bundle up all players into the same type.

And you're assuming that japanesse players follow everything going on in the MLB. Maybe they do, maybe they don't but your projecting your feelings on to him. Also, you're assuming he's not the type of person who wants to turn a loser into a winner. There are those types. Not everyone's a Lebron.

 

[CSF77]

And you're assuming that japanesse players follow everything going on in the MLB. Maybe they do, maybe they don't but your projecting your feelings on to him. Also, you're assuming he's not the type of person who wants to turn a loser into a winner. There are those types. Not everyone's a Lebron.

Goes both ways. You are assuming that he will want to come over and change the culture.

I'll just say that is wishful thinking.

The A's and the O's have a better shot based off of their post season appearances vs the Cubs smacking a 3 for 90 loss.

If the Cubs were a play off team (even in 2010 this could have been reasonable) then I would also believe the Cubs had a solid shot at getting him.


Let me put it thus way. If he signs. How many wins do you expect out of him with the current line up? 10-12 I'll bet. So he would go from 24-0 to 10-15.

Now I can see it now. Japanese talent is weaker than American talent. Now before you get all crazy and start tossing out saber this and that. Most fans don't give a shit about that stuff. That is just nerd talk. This would be more like comparing a Ford to a Honda. Nothing to do with the quality just American chest puffing.

I believe the pecking order will be:

1. Yanks: Ichrio connect and lets face it they are what baseball should be about. No matter how you spin it they are a icon.
2. Dodgers. Lets be real they are 2nd only to the Yanks in many things.
3. Seattle. Again Ichrio connect. Have had a connection to Japanese talent. They have been spending to fund a winner. Team sale or not.

Any other team that has a need and has been in the play off hunt. I would put Phi, A's, O's, Rangers. I might even think that the Braves might kick the tires.

Pirates are doubtful. Cards doubtful. Reds doubtful. Bosox are looking to shed a starter.

So again looking at it from a going from a winner perspective. There are plenty of choices going on that far outweigh what the Cubs have to offer.


I'll impose my belief now though. The only way they sign him is if his best offer is say 120 mil and the Cubs make him a 200 mil off. Then ya that would pull him in.

 

[beckdawg]

Goes both ways. You are assuming that he will want to come over and change the culture. a winner.

I'm assuming money will be the deciding factor and not making any other assumptions. The way you're talking about this is quite defeatist. What's the point in even putting in a bid for him if they are a loser and he wont come to a loser? And with that same logic, what's the point in making a bid on any FA? Why would they want to come to a loser? The point is we don't have any clue what factors matter or don't to him. Maybe he doesn't speak english well(I honestly don't know) and will lean heavily on his agent who would again push him toward the most money. We don't know and that's sort of my point. All we do know is that typically players will go to the team who spend the most money.

At the end of the day, if you think he's the FA you have to get you go after him. If for whatever reason that player chooses someone else so be it. Does that leave the cubs in an awkward position for 2014? Sure. But, it's not like there aren't other options available. Let's say Choo signs right now and tanaka either doesn't post or doesn't choose the cubs. The cubs then have $40ish mil in free budget. Are your choices more limited? Sure. But you also have the ability to get creative. For example, the Braves are supposedly heavily interested in Shark but seemingly like other teams are unwilling to part with their top pitching prospects to make it happen. However, maybe if the cubs would be willing to take on Uggla's 2 year $26 contract they would.

 

[brett05]

But I see payroll at 72 mil post Arb cases. They could add Choo at 15 mil this year and give Baker 6 mil with performance bonuses and still be under 100 mil.

What happens is Baez should be on the team in the summer and the line up would look like Choo, Castro, Rizzo, Baez, Schierholtz.

Now at this point a lot would depend on Alacantara. If he looks ready then you move Baez to 3B and push Alcantara to 2B. When Bryant promotes he should be pushed to RF. That becomes a line up that can generate runs.

Then looking into 2015 they would have a few trade chips to go after a ace via trade.

My onl issue is that Choo will probably get closer to $20 than $15.

 

[brett05]

Don't agree on the Tanaka thing. Are there teams that offer him a better shot to win in 2014? Probably.

You misspelled Definitely

Are there better teams that offer him a shot to win over the life of his deal? That's debatable.

Everything's debatable. Not a good debate, but debatable.

If the cubs prospects even remotely pan out they should have one of the best offenses in the national league if not baseball.

Somebody call beckdawg a cab, he's been over served.

 

[brett05]

And with that same logic, what's the point in making a bid on any FA? Why would they want to come to a loser?

And that's the problem. And not just for the Cubs. But let's keep it to them shall we.

The Cubs have attracted a top Free Agent once in the past 7 years. (Soriano) Why is that?