The Cubs Hot Stove Action Thread

CSF77 · Dec 14, 2013

Gavin Floyd Close To Signing

By Charlie Wilmoth [December 13 at 9:01pm CST]

Pitcher Gavin Floyd is close to signing a one-year deal with an unknown team, Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun tweets. Encina indicates that that team is not the Orioles, who were known to be interested in Floyd.

Floyd missed most of the 2013 season after having Tommy John surgery in May. In 168 innings with the White Sox in 2012, he posted a 4.29 ERA with 7.7 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9.

sounds like a cubs move....

Not sure if I like it or not. I would rather have them re up with Baker. They paid for his rehab and IMO he owes it to them. At least a 1 year deal.

But really not sure on Floyd. I believe he isless than Baker. He was not impressive pre-injury.

But hey Bosio has fixed...err E.Jaxx...never mind.

beckdawg · Dec 14, 2013

CSF77 said:
Not sure if I like it or not. I would rather have them re up with Baker. They paid for his rehab and IMO he owes it to them. At least a 1 year deal.

But really not sure on Floyd. I believe he isless than Baker. He was not impressive pre-injury.

But hey Bosio has fixed...err E.Jaxx...never mind.

Why not go after both? It seems pretty clear the want to trade Shark when the package becomes right so they are going to need depth behind both.

beckdawg · Dec 14, 2013

The Cubs just invoked something called a fatigue clause to end Junior Lake's winterball season. Sounds like he was crushing it down there.

.343/.386/.457.

7 walks in 112 PA. 2 HR's and 4 2B's. 6 SB in 9 attempts.

Saw this on cubs den comments. Gives you some hope that his .284/.332/.428 is repeatable next year.

CSF77 · Dec 14, 2013

beckdawg said:
Why not go after both? It seems pretty clear the want to trade Shark when the package becomes right so they are going to need depth behind both.

That ties to the mixed signals you quoted before. Theo has gone out and said Shark is opening day starter

CSF77 · Dec 14, 2013

beckdawg said:
Saw this on cubs den comments. Gives you some hope that his .284/.332/.428 is repeatable next year.

He needs a full season. We saw this with Rizzo and the sophomore slump. The teams had scouting reports. And his production dropped. Lake should be in the same situation.

Lake worries me. He is a free swinger and lacks plate disapline.

I hope for the best.

CSF77 · Dec 14, 2013

But one thing I noticed was they did not talk about Bog and he got traded. So if that is any indicator of a potential trade piece. I haven't heard much on Wood's extention or Arreta.

But again I would rather just retain Baker.

For the record I wanted Kaz. The rotation could have used a power LH to go with Wood's cut fastball approach. Would have been a decent top. But I believe Baker could net 10+ wins even on this line up.

That is going to be a problem. Rizzo 80rbi top. Schierholtz 60. Sweeney maybe 75 full time. So on. Lack of OBA tyes in the 1-2 slot. I just don't see even an avg of 3.5 per game.

beckdawg · Dec 14, 2013

CSF77 said:
He needs a full season. We saw this with Rizzo and the sophomore slump. The teams had scouting reports. And his production dropped. Lake should be in the same situation.

Lake worries me. He is a free swinger and lacks plate disapline.

I hope for the best.

Think Castro would be the comparison that would worry me more. Castro walks at a similar rate and used to have fewer k rate(~14%). This past season he dipped to 18% which obviously hurt him. And in Lake's case he's well above that at 27%. Chris Johnson(.321 avg) and Starling Marte(.280 avg) were the only two qualified MLB players with 5% or lower walk rate and a 20% or higher K rate to have a decent OBP(.320+). So I too am worried about him. However, in the minors Lake has been the type to survive on a really high BABIP. So, I think there's reason to believe he could be something like Brett Gardner was this past season if he brings down his k rate some. Carlos Gomez also is a similar type player and survived at 6% bb/25% k. However Gomez took 5 years after being called up to have his break out season the year before last.

CSF77 · Dec 14, 2013

He would have to turn into a 25 HR threat at min to gloss over his lackings as Sori did. I'm just seeing a young Sori minus the roids.

Game is changing though. Speed is making a come back. But he would need a OBA over .350 to util it

He is looking the athlete but lacks the whole package.

beckdawg · Dec 14, 2013

CSF77 said:
But one thing I noticed was they did not talk about Bog and he got traded. So if that is any indicator of a potential trade piece. I haven't heard much on Wood's extention or Arreta.

But again I would rather just retain Baker.

For the record I wanted Kaz. The rotation could have used a power LH to go with Wood's cut fastball approach. Would have been a decent top. But I believe Baker could net 10+ wins even on this line up.

That is going to be a problem. Rizzo 80rbi top. Schierholtz 60. Sweeney maybe 75 full time. So on. Lack of OBA tyes in the 1-2 slot. I just don't see even an avg of 3.5 per game.

To me 2B is the void they have to fill and I hope they are planning to do it with a platoon of Murphy/Roberts/Valbuena. If you use Murphy and Roberts in a R/L platoon from last year their combind line would look like this: 210 PAs, .276 avg, 12 HR, 29 RBI and a .329 OBP. Take that over 600 PAs and you get a pretty decent 2B platoon. I doubt they would have 30 HRs but maybe 15 HRs and 70 RBIs with a .276 avg and .329 OBP would look god tier compared to what Barney's 2013 line looked like. I assume they will also platoon Schierholtz and Ruggiano and their split from last year would look like this: 587 PAs, 28 HRs, 89 RBIs, .258 avg, .312 OBP. I realize platoons are far from sexy but they are effective. That OF platoon is probably ~$4 mil compared to Josh Hamilton's 636 PAs, 21 HRs, 79 RBIs, .250 AVG, .307 OBP at $17.4 mil or Yoenis Cespedes' 574 PAs, 26 HRs, 80 RBIs, .240 avg, .294 OBP at $8.5 mil.

If I had to guess I would put their RBI totals like this
Castillo/backup 60 RBI
Rizzo 80 RBI
Roberts/Murphy 70 RBI
Olt 60 RBI
Castro 70 RBI
Lake 50 RBI
Schierholtz/Ruggiano 80 RBI
Sweeney 50 RBI

That gives you 520 runs. Say another 75 from the bench and another say 30 from pitching and 25 unearned from last year and that would get you to 650 which would be roughly 4 runs per game which was the NL average. I don't think that's all that unrealistic. This is what they got at the various positions last year C - 61, 1B - 81, 2B - 45, 3B - 70, SS - 44, LF - 71, CF - 51, RF - 90, P - 29. The reality of this is how much Castro and Barney killed the cubs last year. They got 89 RBI's out of those two positions. If Castro goes back to the 66 or 78 he had in 2011/2012 and can get 130 rbi's out of 3B and 2B you're looking at a swing of 50 runs which is all they'd need to be average in the NL.

beckdawg · Dec 14, 2013

I also wonder if we aren't under selling Vitters as a possible LFer. I was just curious to see what his numbers looked like as a former top pick who's been an afterthought for me for awhile. The "oliver" computer projection on him for 2014 has this line 600 PAs 69 runs 20 hrs 76 rbis 6 sb with a .253 avg and a .305 OBP. The average and on base aren't stellar but Soriano in LF last year for the cubs had 47 runs 17 HRs 51 rbis 10 sb .254 avg .287 OBP in 383 PAs. Soriano obviously has more power but from an OBP/AVG perspective he wouldn't appear to be much worse off those projections. Soriano's stats last year projected over 600 PA would be 74 runs, 27 HRs, 80 rbis, 16 sb. So, if Vitters does meet that projection the difference between the two(for the cubs) wouldn't be much.

It feels like Vitters has been around forever but he's only going to be 24 next year. His career BB% before last year was hovering around the 5-6% mark. In 2013 he had 16 walks in 117 PAs between rookie league and AAA(17 in R 100 in AAA). Obviously a pretty small sample size but it's encouraging. Makes you wonder if he's not taking to the same sort of teaching they tried with Castro. If they could get that sort of production out of him in LF(or 3B if Olt doesn't make it) he might be a sneaky nice addition to the line up.

brett05 · Dec 14, 2013

beckdawg said:
I think you're being pretty cavalier suggesting fans aren't stupid. Most have no concept of roster construction. In most fans view, you either sign a player they've heard of or you're not doing anything which is clearly the situation the cubs are in at the moment. You think many pirate fans were heaping praise on them for signing Liriano last off season? All he did was pitch like one of the best pitchers in the league for $1 mil. Most fans only care about the season in front of you and not a long term plan.

There's a difference between urgency and desperation. Signing players because you're a losing team is a desperate move. You sign players because they move you closer toward a championship. The cubs clearly need a lot more help than 1 or 2 players. So, why shouldn't they target multiple "minor" signings? Koji Uehara had a huge year for the Red Sox for $4.25 mil. I already mentioned Liriano. Navarro had a good year for the cubs for $1.175 mil. Frasor had a very solid year for $1.5 mil as did Nate McLouth for $2 mil, James Loney for $2 mil, Schierholtz for $2.25 mil, Colon for $3 mil, Scott Feldman for $6 mil....etc. I can go on and on here. If the cubs had gotten Liriano, Uehara, McClouth, and Colon instead of Jackson for roughly the same money they would have probably been a .500 team or at leas a hell of a lot closer than they were. That's the point I'm trying to make here. The amount a player is paid doesn't make him a significant roster move, his play does. There are over 100 guys still out there that could be these type of players.

As for Tanaka, you have to try to negotiate with him. If he choose someone else that's the breaks. But to not even take part in the process because you don't think he'll come to a loser is beyond pathetic.

For those of you not playing along Beckdawg described a lottery

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chibears55 · Dec 14, 2013

@TheCCO:

RT @MLBBruceLevine: Yankees interest in Cubs Darwin Barney may pick up . (Royals sign Omar Infante) teams talked earlier.

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brett05 · Dec 14, 2013

chibears55 said:
@TheCCO:

RT @MLBBruceLevine: Yankees interest in Cubs Darwin Barney may pick up . (Royals sign Omar Infante) teams talked earlier.

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No negotiation. Whatever the yankees say the answer is yes

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CSF77 · Dec 14, 2013

I belive the best final answer is Baez at 3B. Bryant in RF and Alcantara.

But that is not this year.

I say let them duke it out. Best case is Watkins steps up to his 2012 production. He has solid BB even when his BA dropped at Iowa.

Right now I see the depth

3B Valbuena, Murphy, Olt
2B Barney, Watkins

I'm guessing Olt makes the team. They should have a roster spot for him. Involves pine. Unless he just yacks 10 HR's in S/T. He does that they will start him at 3B.