The Cubs Hot Stove Action Thread

[Boobaby1]

Gavin Floyd signed by a "mystery team" Probably be the Cubs :enough:

Apparently it's the Braves. I wonder what this does for one of the Cubs strongest suitors in Samardzija?

 

[patg006]

Apparently it's the Braves. I wonder what this does for one of the Cubs strongest suitors in Samardzija?

Read the braves too.

Not to twist everybody's panties. But Dan Dakich is getting MURDERED on twitter for reporting Shark has been extended by the cubs. https://twitter.com/dandakich

I don't get it. This Dakich guy is an Indiana U's men's basketball radio play by play guy. Does he know Shark through ND?

 

[daddies3angels]

Axford going to CLE. some talks Cubs really interested in him

 

[beckdawg]

By Mark Gonzales, Tribune reporter
10:50 p.m. CST, December 15, 2013

The Chicago Cubs are one of several teams interested in signing free agent left-hander Jonathan Sanchez.

Cubs are really going nuts on lefties. Supposedly they want him as a reliever not a starter. He's got pretty great stuff(9.11 k/9) but pretty terrible control(5.00 BB/9). I wonder if the cubs aren't trying to create market for relievers at the deadline or to have the ability to trade someone like Russell. So far they've added Wesley Wright, Tsuyoshi Wada, and Tommy Hottovy as lefties.

 

[DewsSox79]

what I dont get is why the cubs are picking up either hurt or just plain bad players and being linked to others like j sanchez. There is moneyball moves and than there are just dumb moves to fill a roster. quite sad. they should be trying to deal for real pitching


Sent from my Rotary Phone using Tapatalk

 

[beckdawg]

what I dont get is why the cubs are picking up either hurt or just plain bad players and being linked to others like j sanchez. There is moneyball moves and than there are just dumb moves to fill a roster. quite sad. they should be trying to deal for real pitching


Sent from my Rotary Phone using Tapatalk

The general rule of thumb is you can have 2 of these 3 options: Healthy, Good, Cheap. So, you can get a healthy player who's cheap but he's probably not going to be good. You can get a good player who's cheap but he's unlikely to be healthy because if he was he wouldn't be cheap. And finally you can have a good healthy player but he wont be cheap.

As for Sanchez, he has a decent upside if you can fix his control. He's also a good LOOGY candidate(.218/.313/.363 Opponents Slash vs. LHB). As for dumb moves, it depends on what they plan to do with the ~$40 mil they have in difference between this year's payroll and last years. Presumably it's for Tanaka if he's posted. Cynics would say they are just sitting on it to line their pockets but I don't think that's the case. The real question is what happens if he's not posted? Personally I have no clue but maybe they make a run at Garza. Maybe they go after Choo. But if neither of those two options happen I honestly have no clue what they can get that will matter.

 

[SilenceS]

The general rule of thumb is you can have 2 of these 3 options: Healthy, Good, Cheap. So, you can get a healthy player who's cheap but he's probably not going to be good. You can get a good player who's cheap but he's unlikely to be healthy because if he was he wouldn't be cheap. And finally you can have a good healthy player but he wont be cheap.

As for Sanchez, he has a decent upside if you can fix his control. He's also a good LOOGY candidate(.218/.313/.363 Opponents Slash vs. LHB). As for dumb moves, it depends on what they plan to do with the ~$40 mil they have in difference between this year's payroll and last years. Presumably it's for Tanaka if he's posted. Cynics would say they are just sitting on it to line their pockets but I don't think that's the case. The real question is what happens if he's not posted? Personally I have no clue but maybe they make a run at Garza. Maybe they go after Choo. But if neither of those two options happen I honestly have no clue what they can get that will matter.

There is like a .001 percent chance the Cubs get Garza. They are not even linked to him in any way. Choo is also a long shot. Tanaka may not get posted and would still be a long shot. They also need a 4th hitter, but they aren't going to pay for Nelson Cruz services. Looks like the Mariners are hard after him and hard after trying to trade for David Price. The Cubs could walk into 2013 as one of the worst built teams in franchise history and I have seen guys like Tuffy Rhodes start for this team.

 

[beckdawg]

There is like a .001 percent chance the Cubs get Garza. They are not even linked to him in any way. Choo is also a long shot. Tanaka may not get posted and would still be a long shot. They also need a 4th hitter, but they aren't going to pay for Nelson Cruz services. Looks like the Mariners are hard after him and hard after trying to trade for David Price. The Cubs could walk into 2013 as one of the worst built teams in franchise history and I have seen guys like Tuffy Rhodes start for this team.

 

[beckdawg]

Buster Olney ‏@Buster_ESPN 4s
Lots of speculation among executives that the Cubs are poised to try to strike big on Tanaka. We'll see.

For whatever that tweet is worth.

 

[SilenceS]

For whatever that tweet is worth.

Hope so, they have to add something of substance. Not something that will just get you by as a filler for a year, but a player going forward that will produce at a high level for the Cubs.

 

[CSF77]

Hope so, they have to add something of substance. Not something that will just get you by as a filler for a year, but a player going forward that will produce at a high level for the Cubs.

Even so the line up is not going to generate much.

Looking over it. In house the best line up I came up with was Watkins, Castro, Rizzo, Olt, Schierholtz, Lake, Sweeney, Castillo

That line up is pretty bad. But Watkins and Olt have some potential vs Barney and Valbuena.


Again I'm hoping Tanaka doesn't get posted. Then the Cubs can make a solid offer to Choo to lead off. Then ink Baker for the rotation.

Look at it this way: they lock in 1-3 in the line up. They have Baez and Bryant close for 4-5. 6-8 can be filler at that point.

Then going into 2015 when Tanaka posts the O looks better and the Cubs look more attractive as a suiter.

I believe if he posts this year the Cubs will fail this off season as they gambled and lost when there were other fish out there.

 

[TL1961]

That's actually a very well thought out post.

But I believe Tanaka is going to post this year - isn't that the news today? Or can he still decline?

 

[SilenceS]

That's actually a very well thought out post.

But I believe Tanaka is going to post this year - isn't that the news today? Or can he still decline?

Tanaka is posting this year or so the reports say.

 

[beckdawg]

So how much does Tanaka get? Between posting and the aav of his deal Darvish got $18.6 mil. People are saying Darvish is slightly better. I realize the situation with posting changes things a bit but I'm struggling to see this go over $20 mil aav if you include the posting fee. Something like 6 years $100 mil + the $20 mil posting fee seems right to me.

However, I have seen others on cubs den comments talking $150 over 6 years plus the $20 mil fee. If you figure $7 mil per win in FA which is the rough estimate that means he'd have to produce 24.25 WAR over the life of the deal or roughly 4 WAR a season. Only 11 pitchers have done that over the past 3 years Verlander, Kershaw, Hernandez, Lee, Sabathia, Scherzer, Sanchez, Price, Fister, Hamels, and Shields. That's basically assuming he's an ace when I'm hearing most view him solidly as a 2 with the potential to be an ace. My suggestion for 6 years for a total of $120 mil would be around 3 WAR/season which over the past 3 years 30 pitchers have done.

Perhaps I'm being too logical here and this turns into a feeding frenzy type situation. But, if it goes over $23 AAV for the deal it seems like the teams are setting themselves up for failure. I think the max you can go is 7 years $140 mil + the $20 mil posting fee even for the cubs who may feel over paying is worth it. At that price you're basically expecting him to be a 3.25 WAR player/season which over the past 3 seasons would have put him as a top 20 pitcher in the league. It would put him on the same level as Wainright, Latos and Zimmerman.

 

[Boobaby1]

So how much does Tanaka get? Between posting and the aav of his deal Darvish got $18.6 mil. People are saying Darvish is slightly better. I realize the situation with posting changes things a bit but I'm struggling to see this go over $20 mil aav if you include the posting fee. Something like 6 years $100 mil + the $20 mil posting fee seems right to me.

However, I have seen others on cubs den comments talking $150 over 6 years plus the $20 mil fee. If you figure $7 mil per win in FA which is the rough estimate that means he'd have to produce 24.25 WAR over the life of the deal or roughly 4 WAR a season. Only 11 pitchers have done that over the past 3 years Verlander, Kershaw, Hernandez, Lee, Sabathia, Scherzer, Sanchez, Price, Fister, Hamels, and Shields. That's basically assuming he's an ace when I'm hearing most view him solidly as a 2 with the potential to be an ace. My suggestion for 6 years for a total of $120 mil would be around 3 WAR/season which over the past 3 years 30 pitchers have done.

Perhaps I'm being too logical here and this turns into a feeding frenzy type situation. But, if it goes over $23 AAV for the deal it seems like the teams are setting themselves up for failure. I think the max you can go is 7 years $140 mil + the $20 mil posting fee even for the cubs who may feel over paying is worth it. At that price you're basically expecting him to be a 3.25 WAR player/season which over the past 3 seasons would have put him as a top 20 pitcher in the league. It would put him on the same level as Wainright, Latos and Zimmerman.

And if the FO does what they are suppose to do, the young pitchers coming up should off-set his contract. I have had all I can take with the flippable pieces to date.

It's time to start getting someone for the future and hold on to them.

 

[beckdawg]

And if the FO does what they are suppose to do, the young pitchers coming up should off-set his contract. I have had all I can take with the flippable pieces to date.

It's time to start getting someone for the future and hold on to them.

But if they haven't? That's my problem. Some on here have pointed out pitching prospects fail often. And they are right. I have hope for the guys the cubs have. But you can't be oblivious to that. I'm not saying they should ignore Tanaka and just sign 3 more Feldmans. At that $25 mil+, Tanaka isn't a value because you expect him to be a top 10 pitcher. The only way that deal is good value from the cubs perspective is if he's a top 5 pitcher. So, best case that Tanaka is an ace you're paying like any other ace unless he's a top 5 pitcher which seems unlikely. On a realistic case, you're paying $25 mil+ for a #2. Worst case you're paying $25 mil/year for something worse than a #2.

At that price I just don't see the value. Chances are you can get Matt Garza for some where between $16-20 mil. Hypothetically, I'd rather give Garza like $17 mil and get someone like Josh Johnson for $8 mil than give Tanaka $25 mil. I think realistically Tanaka is worth $20 mil aav as a young #2 but will probably go for more than that. My $23 mil max is accounting for the younger pitching and the obvious need the cubs have for young pitching.

 

[Shawon0Meter]

The Cubs are in on Tanaka for show, a PR move, a way to say "we tried".

 

[brett05]

The Cubs are in on Tanaka for show, a PR move, a way to say "we tried".

It's possible. That's the prevailing belief in past free agents (international or otherwise)

 

[waldo7239117]

I actually don't think it's a PR move. I do think the Cubs will be big players and do have a good chance to sign him when he's ever posted. He will, at some point.

 

[CSF77]

I believe they will cap out at 110 Mil. Right now they have 50,684,524 commited. That amount only covers 8 of the 25 man roster.