The Cubs Hot Stove Action Thread

[Boobaby1]

But if they haven't? That's my problem. Some on here have pointed out pitching prospects fail often. And they are right. I have hope for the guys the cubs have. But you can't be oblivious to that. I'm not saying they should ignore Tanaka and just sign 3 more Feldmans. At that $25 mil+, Tanaka isn't a value because you expect him to be a top 10 pitcher. The only way that deal is good value from the cubs perspective is if he's a top 5 pitcher. So, best case that Tanaka is an ace you're paying like any other ace unless he's a top 5 pitcher which seems unlikely. On a realistic case, you're paying $25 mil+ for a #2. Worst case you're paying $25 mil/year for something worse than a #2.

At that price I just don't see the value. Chances are you can get Matt Garza for some where between $16-20 mil. Hypothetically, I'd rather give Garza like $17 mil and get someone like Josh Johnson for $8 mil than give Tanaka $25 mil. I think realistically Tanaka is worth $20 mil aav as a young #2 but will probably go for more than that. My $23 mil max is accounting for the younger pitching and the obvious need the cubs have for young pitching.

So you are going completely against what the Cubs have said all along which is cost control players and/or getting them before they peak, not after. Are you buying into their plan or not?

The players you have mentioned have had their years and are on the decline. Sure, lets pay 25 million for someone on the downside of their careers and injury riddled versus giving it to someone who is on the upside and young.

What makes sense is not whiffing at all of the international free agents like Darvish, Puig, Cespedes, and Ryu to name some who blossom for other teams while the Cubs sit on their thumbs and watch another one go by because of a laxed signing effort.

Their is a ton more to gain with Tanaka, internationally, with merchandising, and the all-in-all media frenzy that would give revenue back to the Cubs.

If ESPN has a Sunday night game, and Tanaka is pitching versus Kershaw, Strasburg, or Wainright, what is the media exposure for something like that? And that is just a sniff. How many people are going to tune into the Cubs networks to watch their number one pitcher pitch every time. You have already seen the buzz with Baez and Bryant, now throw Tanaka on top of that.

 

[brett05]

I actually don't think it's a PR move. I do think the Cubs will be big players and do have a good chance to sign him when he's ever posted. He will, at some point.

I agree with points #1,2 and #4. I disagree with #3 of the Cubs having a good chance. There's no compelling reason for him to sign with the Cubs.

 

[Boobaby1]

I believe they will cap out at 110 Mil. Right now they have 50,684,524 commited. That amount only covers 8 of the 25 man roster.

And 110 million won't get a sniff and they will be dead last amongst teams bidding for him. That is Matt Garza money, not Tanaka.

Cliff Lee got 5 yrs, 120 million three years ago, and Cole Hammels got 6 yrs, 144 million last year.

This is the most highly coveted free agent pitcher on the market.

 

[CSF77]

I know. You could add 20 mil for the posting. That puts spendings at 70 mil. The rest of the roster you have to guess 25 mil. So 95 mil. They could start Tanaka at 15 mil. I believe that is a fair starting price if they back load the deal.

I believe it will come down to years and the fact he is 25 a 10 year deal should be his market.

 

[Boobaby1]

I know. You could add 20 mil for the posting. That puts spendings at 70 mil. The rest of the roster you have to guess 25 mil. So 95 mil. They could start Tanaka at 15 mil. I believe that is a fair starting price if they back load the deal.

I believe it will come down to years and the fact he is 25 a 10 year deal should be his market.

So basically, you bite the bullet this year, and he assumes the Soriano money for a while if the contract is backloaded, so the Cubs payroll doesn't change much.

 

[CSF77]

Yanks signed Brian Roberts. Guess the Barney rumor is now nixed.

 

[CSF77]

So basically, you bite the bullet this year, and he assumes the Soriano money for a while if the contract is backloaded, so the Cubs payroll doesn't change much.

The 50 mil includes Sori.. Reality is if they did this 35 mil would be freed up naturally with Sori and no posting fee. IMO they should give Tanaka 20 mil avg at 10 years. 200 mil deal. But jump him up to 20 mil year 2 and further down absorb the 5 mil from year 1. He would be 35 at the end of the deal.

If they believe he is an ace this is what they should do.

 

[beckdawg]

So you are going completely against what the Cubs have said all along which is cost control players and/or getting them before they peak, not after. Are you buying into their plan or not?

The players you have mentioned have had their years and are on the decline. Sure, lets pay 25 million for someone on the downside of their careers and injury riddled versus giving it to someone who is on the upside and young.

What makes sense is not whiffing at all of the international free agents like Darvish, Puig, Cespedes, and Ryu to name some who blossom for other teams while the Cubs sit on their thumbs and watch another one go by because of a laxed signing effort.

Why is my suggestion of having a limit to what you are willing to spend on Tanaka an indication I'm not for getting young players? I said I would go to $23 mil on him. Do you know how many pitchers are making $23 mil? The number isn't many. Maybe I'm misunderstanding you but your seeming to indicate there is no price you wouldn't pay. So, why stop at $30 mil? Why not go $50 mi/year? Why not $100 mil/year? At some point, the value you can get out of other players is more valuable for the money you are spending.

Edit: Just for the record here's a list of the players making over $20 mil last season

Alex Rodriguez - $30,000,000
Cliff Lee - $25,000,000
Johan Santana - $24,644,708
Mark Teixeira - $23,125,000
Prince Fielder - $23,000,000
Joe Mauer - $23,000,000
CC Sabathia - $23,000,000
Tim Lincecum - $22,250,000
Zack Greinke - $21,000,000
Vernon Wells - $21,000,000
Adrian Gonzalez - $21,000,000
Miguel Cabrera - $21,000,000
Matt Cain - $20,833,333
Cole Hamels - $20,500,000
Matt Kemp - $20,250,000
Justin Verlander - $20,100,000
Roy Halladay - $20,000,000
Barry Zito - $20,000,000

So yeah, paying him $23 mil/season would be giving him more money than Verlander and Cain.

 

[patg006]

Why is my suggestion of having a limit to what you are willing to spend on Tanaka an indication I'm not for getting young players? I said I would go to $23 mil on him. Do you know how many pitchers are making $23 mil? The number isn't many. Maybe I'm misunderstanding you but your seeming to indicate there is no price you wouldn't pay. So, why stop at $30 mil? Why not go $50 mi/year? Why not $100 mil/year? At some point, the value you can get out of other players is more valuable for the money you are spending.

Edit: Just for the record here's a list of the players making over $20 mil last season

Alex Rodriguez - $30,000,000
Cliff Lee - $25,000,000
Johan Santana - $24,644,708
Mark Teixeira - $23,125,000
Prince Fielder - $23,000,000
Joe Mauer - $23,000,000
CC Sabathia - $23,000,000
Tim Lincecum - $22,250,000
Zack Greinke - $21,000,000
Vernon Wells - $21,000,000
Adrian Gonzalez - $21,000,000
Miguel Cabrera - $21,000,000
Matt Cain - $20,833,333
Cole Hamels - $20,500,000
Matt Kemp - $20,250,000
Justin Verlander - $20,100,000
Roy Halladay - $20,000,000
Barry Zito - $20,000,000

So yeah, paying him $23 mil/season would be giving him more money than Verlander and Cain.

Teams are gearing up to throw a lot of money at this cat. I agree he isn't worth 20 mil. Hell he isn't worth 10. He should get 8 mil a year. I know its crossing sports analogies, because football and baseball are apples and oranges; but it is like paying Sam Bradford. Bradford was handed a 6 year, 78 million dollar rookie deal. He's not worth it, and he was paid completely on potential--what I'm trying to link here, not draft status. I know he sat out a year, but I'm focusing on the 'potential' part of it. That was what you had to pay a #1 pick QB with elite potential. He's clearly busted, no need for the story I already know.

You have a 24 year old with above average stuff and potential ace material, likely #2 rotation material who dominated his league (injury free) and now is coming into the league with no penalty for signing him. No lost pick, no lost prospects, no lost players. Just cash. Maybe cultural implications too. The #4 is unlucky in Japan. Hyun Jin Ryu's team Hanwaha--from Korea--elected to select La's offer because it had all of Korean lucky numbers. It sounds bewildering to us, as Americans are all about the money; but will Tanaka have cultural implications? Wont know until he sits at the bargaining table.

One thing I think the cubs do have in their favor is that Tanaka took ABs in the NPB. Does he want to bat in the MLB? Some pitchers do favor or disfavor the NL because of it. It'd be a point in the cubs favor.

He's not worth Verlander money (though Verlander gets an 8 million dollar raise in 2015); but its the market you have to pay potential. Other teams need a young, talented starting pitcher. If you want him, but don't want to spend--you won't get him, plain and simple. So for the people thinking 10-15 will be enough, I don't think it will be.

Do the cubs want to go >20 million just to get him? I cant see it happening with recent trends. Sorry, I'll be baffled if they do. In a good way

I believe the Yankees and Dodgers will go that high. Both really want this guy. I know the cubs do, but these guys are serious and want to win at all costs. I dont doubt for a second that the cubs' interest in this cat is genuine. But are they prepared for a bidding war with the egregious spending Yankees? I think they'd give NY a run, but would lose if Tanaka wanted the money.

With all the buzz with this guy, I expect the cubs to quietly steal Suk Min Yoon from the Korean league.

 

[beckdawg]

He's not worth Verlander money (though Verlander gets an 8 million dollar raise in 2015); but its the market you have to pay potential. Other teams need a young, talented starting pitcher. If you want him, but don't want to spend--you won't get him, plain and simple. So for the people thinking 10-15 will be enough, I don't think it will be.

Yeah, I get that. That's why I'd be willing to go up to $23 mil. I think he's worth taking the chance on. But, at some point there has to be a limit. Signing a Garza/Anibal Sanchez type and another starter who could be a #3-4 for the same price as Tanaka has more value to me. Honestly, I think $20 mil would be a reasonable deal but as you said you have to spend in these cases and if that means you go to $23 mil/season so be it. But if someone is going to throw $25 mil or $30 mil as some have suggested else where I think you let them have him.

 

[THERIOT2]

Will the Cubs get Tanaka ? The Yankees have deeper pockets as do the Dodgers and arguably the Angels as well. If the miracle happens and Cubs win the whole enchilada,then it's worth more than any paltry amount the Cubs spend to make those last 105 years go away. I don't care if the contract costs upwards of 180 million.

 

[brett05]

Yeah, I get that. That's why I'd be willing to go up to $23 mil. I think he's worth taking the chance on. But, at some point there has to be a limit. Signing a Garza/Anibal Sanchez type and another starter who could be a #3-4 for the same price as Tanaka has more value to me. Honestly, I think $20 mil would be a reasonable deal but as you said you have to spend in these cases and if that means you go to $23 mil/season so be it. But if someone is going to throw $25 mil or $30 mil as some have suggested else where I think you let them have him.

I agree 100%. There's limits. And even if Tanaka goes down as a top 5 pitcher for the next 5 years you still have to put a cap somewhere.

 

[brett05]

Will the Cubs get Tanaka ? The Yankees have deeper pockets as do the Dodgers and arguably the Angels as well. If the miracle happens and Cubs win the whole enchilada,then it's worth more than any paltry amount the Cubs spend to make those last 105 years go away. I don't care if the contract costs upwards of 180 million.

If you were guaranteed it, sure. That's the problem.

 

[patg006]

Yeah, I get that. That's why I'd be willing to go up to $23 mil. I think he's worth taking the chance on. But, at some point there has to be a limit. Signing a Garza/Anibal Sanchez type and another starter who could be a #3-4 for the same price as Tanaka has more value to me. Honestly, I think $20 mil would be a reasonable deal but as you said you have to spend in these cases and if that means you go to $23 mil/season so be it. But if someone is going to throw $25 mil or $30 mil as some have suggested else where I think you let them have him.

I don't think he'll get 25, but I do think he will get 19-23 range.

The Yankees are the biggest threat to me. THey have gone out and said 'we want this kid.' When they Yankees want someone, they get them usually or are the runner up finalist.

The Dodgers are a threat, but a lesser one. One day they want to trade Matt Kemp to save money, the next they don't. Then its Andre Ethier. Then its Crawford.

Giants are the least. They needed SP and went out and got Tim Hudson while locking up Vogelsong and Lincecum. Cain Lincecum Bumgarner, Vogelsong, Hudson. If the Giants really wanted and got him, I'd be on the phone as fast as I can offering up Almora and Castro for Bumgarner. And I'd be prepared to offer more.

DBacks are in, but I think they have to move someone in order to shell out money to get him. If they dealt McCarthy then I see them as players.

 

[beckdawg]

I don't think he'll get 25, but I do think he will get 19-23 range.

The Yankees are the biggest threat to me. THey have gone out and said 'we want this kid.' When they Yankees want someone, they get them usually or are the runner up finalist.

The Dodgers are a threat, but a lesser one. One day they want to trade Matt Kemp to save money, the next they don't. Then its Andre Ethier. Then its Crawford.

Giants are the least. They needed SP and went out and got Tim Hudson while locking up Vogelsong and Lincecum. Cain Lincecum Bumgarner, Vogelsong, Hudson. If the Giants really wanted and got him, I'd be on the phone as fast as I can offering up Almora and Castro for Bumgarner. And I'd be prepared to offer more.

DBacks are in, but I think they have to move someone in order to shell out money to get him. If they dealt McCarthy then I see them as players.

I think the yanks all comes down to do they really want to stay under the luxury tax as has been reported. They are currently sitting at $172,167,857 and that's before they added Matt Thornton(2 years $7 mil) and Brian Roberts(1 year $2mil). The luxury tax is $178 mil if I'm not mistaken. A-Rod may come off that if he's suspended but that outcome is almost surely going to be after Tanaka signs. If they go over that threshold any dollar over it is taxed at 50%. So, considering they are skirting it right now if you figure Tanaka costs $20 mil he is actually costing the yankees $30 mil.

As for the Dodgers, I'm sure they have the money but are you really going to pay 3 pitchers $20 mil+? They already have Grienke and Kershaw(who they still need to re-sign). Beckett has 1 year left at $17 mil as well so you're talking around $90 mil for their rotation. Also, how's that rotation going to work? They have Grienke and Kershaw as locks. They also have Beckett, Billingsley and Haren. If they sign Tanaka you probably have to move one of the latter three.

I think the Giants have a similar issue as the Dodgers. They have Cain at ~$21 mil, Lincecum at $17 mil, Hudson at $11 mil, Vogelsong at $5 mil and Bumgarner still cheap at $4 mil. They can surely afford him but it seems like they already have their starting 5. I think the D-backs are only tokenly in this. They traded away their 5th best prospect to save $5 mil on Heath Bell. In the last 5 years the highest their payroll has been was last year at $86 mil. They currently sit at $74,175,000. So, if Tanaka gets in that $20 mil range it seems unlikely they can afford him.

On the other hand the cubs spent $106.8 mil last year and $109.3 mil the year before. Their current payroll is $50,684,524(before arbitration). Even if they had to eat the $20 mil posting fee year one to go along with a $23 mil max I have suggested they are going to have enough room for Tanaka. So to me it's down to the Yanks(if they break luxury tax threshold) or the Cubs if they are willing to go that high and not throw out a token offer. I know some think that's what is happening but they have about half the payroll they did the past 2 years under Theo. I can't imagine Ricketts suddenly tightened the budget even more.

 

[SilenceS]

Dodgers seem luke warm on Tanaka. People are really ramping it up as the Yanks vs. the Cubs. There is one issue I have with this. Cubs fans aren't very smart. Every fan base has their dumb ones, but Cubs have such a large fan base that they pop up more. If Tanaka is signed, they are going to expect an elite pitcher. I don't think that's fair to Tanaka. He isn't elite. He isn't an ace. He is not Yu Darvish. He is a 2 or a 3 that's is 25 years old and could be a real good pitcher in the majors but highly doubtful he will ever be a true ace. I just want Cubs fans to understand that this guy isn't the savior. He would be just a valuable piece to the puzzle, if that makes sense.

 

[beckdawg]

Dodgers seem luke warm on Tanaka. People are really ramping it up as the Yanks vs. the Cubs. There is one issue I have with this. Cubs fans aren't very smart. Every fan base has their dumb ones, but Cubs have such a large fan base that they pop up more. If Tanaka is signed, they are going to expect an elite pitcher. I don't think that's fair to Tanaka. He isn't elite. He isn't an ace. He is not Yu Darvish. He is a 2 or a 3 that's is 25 years old and could be a real good pitcher in the majors but highly doubtful he will ever be a true ace. I just want Cubs fans to understand that this guy isn't the savior. He would be just a valuable piece to the puzzle, if that makes sense.

Doubt that will stop anyone. If the cubs are bad and he struggles to any extent like Shark, people are going to treat him the say way. Personally, I'm just hoping Tanaka is a young health version of what Garza gave the cubs. Garza despite TOR billing was a solid 2 on a good team when healthy.

 

[Boobaby1]

I don't think he'll get 25, but I do think he will get 19-23 range.

The Yankees are the biggest threat to me. THey have gone out and said 'we want this kid.' When they Yankees want someone, they get them usually or are the runner up finalist.

The Dodgers are a threat, but a lesser one. One day they want to trade Matt Kemp to save money, the next they don't. Then its Andre Ethier. Then its Crawford.

Giants are the least. They needed SP and went out and got Tim Hudson while locking up Vogelsong and Lincecum. Cain Lincecum Bumgarner, Vogelsong, Hudson. If the Giants really wanted and got him, I'd be on the phone as fast as I can offering up Almora and Castro for Bumgarner. And I'd be prepared to offer more.

DBacks are in, but I think they have to move someone in order to shell out money to get him. If they dealt McCarthy then I see them as players.

Well, since the Cubs had no problem paying Zambrano 18 million to play for another team and the 19 million for Soriano, I don't know why 23-24 is out of the realm to have a guy actually play for the Cubs.

Money seemed to be no object for these guys, so it shouldn't be for Tanaka. Again, we will see how bad the Cubs truly want somebody.

Theo was able to outbid the Yankees in Boston for highly touted free agents, so I see no difference in Chicago where he has the money to spend.

 

[CSF77]

The key here is he is 25yo. He fits the Cubs plans. They have to over pay to get him. They most likely will be committed to 75 mil after arb cases are settled. They could tack on 45 mil including the posting fee and still be sitting at 110 mil. The following year they will not have to deal with the commitment to Sori or the posting fee. That amounts to 34 mil. That could go back into the increase to Tanaka and towards extending Shark and Wood.

Now a big argument here is if Tanaka is a number 1 starter?

I believe a better question is if he is a number 1 starter in the Cubs rotation?

 

[SilenceS]

The key here is he is 25yo. He fits the Cubs plans. They have to over pay to get him. They most likely will be committed to 75 mil after arb cases are settled. They could tack on 45 mil including the posting fee and still be sitting at 110 mil. The following year they will not have to deal with the commitment to Sori or the posting fee. That amounts to 34 mil. That could go back into the increase to Tanaka and towards extending Shark and Wood.

Now a big argument here is if Tanaka is a number 1 starter?

I believe a better question is if he is a number 1 starter in the Cubs rotation?

He is not a number 1 right now from everything I read. Scouts have been adamant on saying he is not as good as Yu Darvish. Could he still get better? I guess, but I would think transitioning to the US would be a lot harder for a pitcher who has certain techniques from a different country be able to change. I think he is better than Shark is right now, but Shark probably still has the higher ceiling.