The Cubs Hot Stove Action Thread

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chibears55

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I think some of you are way over evaluating him here.. yes he has put up some crazy numbers but they were in japan, not to diminish their league but .....

i just don't think teams are going to offer him a crazy amount, especially if he looking for more then 5 yrs..
i just think depending on the years, that he will get between 15-18.. if its more then that, then its only because a team who didn't want to lose him got desperate and offered up a crazy 6/132 or 7/154 offer to steal him..
 

DewsSox79

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he tanaka shit is getting crazy. Posting fee plus years and salary are going to be stupid. Whoever signs him could have a serious issue on their hands if he gets hurt early in his career. Id spend money elsewhere. maybe spread money on a few pitchers that are less quality and build from the draft.
 

daddies3angels

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Paul Sullivan ‏@PWSullivan 5m
Cubs to sign former Astros closer Jose Veras, as per ESPN report. Gets $4 mill guaranteed plus $5.5 option and incentives.


2014 Closer for 3 months then they will flip him in July
 

CSF77

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Strop: Arb1
Veras: 4MM
Russell: Arb2
Wright: 1.425MM
Fujikawa 4.5MM

Liam Hendricks
Arodys Vizcaino
Hector Rondon
Juston Grimm
Alberto Cabrera
Blake Parker
 

CSF77

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I'm ok with this.

RF platoon (check)
CL (check)
excessive BP depth: (check)

SP ?
#4 hitter ?
 

patg006

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I think the yanks all comes down to do they really want to stay under the luxury tax as has been reported. They are currently sitting at $172,167,857 and that's before they added Matt Thornton(2 years $7 mil) and Brian Roberts(1 year $2mil). The luxury tax is $178 mil if I'm not mistaken. A-Rod may come off that if he's suspended but that outcome is almost surely going to be after Tanaka signs. If they go over that threshold any dollar over it is taxed at 50%. So, considering they are skirting it right now if you figure Tanaka costs $20 mil he is actually costing the yankees $30 mil.

As for the Dodgers, I'm sure they have the money but are you really going to pay 3 pitchers $20 mil+? They already have Grienke and Kershaw(who they still need to re-sign). Beckett has 1 year left at $17 mil as well so you're talking around $90 mil for their rotation. Also, how's that rotation going to work? They have Grienke and Kershaw as locks. They also have Beckett, Billingsley and Haren. If they sign Tanaka you probably have to move one of the latter three.

I think the Giants have a similar issue as the Dodgers. They have Cain at ~$21 mil, Lincecum at $17 mil, Hudson at $11 mil, Vogelsong at $5 mil and Bumgarner still cheap at $4 mil. They can surely afford him but it seems like they already have their starting 5. I think the D-backs are only tokenly in this. They traded away their 5th best prospect to save $5 mil on Heath Bell. In the last 5 years the highest their payroll has been was last year at $86 mil. They currently sit at $74,175,000. So, if Tanaka gets in that $20 mil range it seems unlikely they can afford him.

On the other hand the cubs spent $106.8 mil last year and $109.3 mil the year before. Their current payroll is $50,684,524(before arbitration). Even if they had to eat the $20 mil posting fee year one to go along with a $23 mil max I have suggested they are going to have enough room for Tanaka. So to me it's down to the Yanks(if they break luxury tax threshold) or the Cubs if they are willing to go that high and not throw out a token offer. I know some think that's what is happening but they have about half the payroll they did the past 2 years under Theo. I can't imagine Ricketts suddenly tightened the budget even more.

Yankees President Randy Levine said the luxury tax limit is a goal, NOT a mandate. He said the yankees are willing to go over it now for premier players then go back under down the road. http://www.nj.com/yankees/index.ssf...to_a_world_series_team_randy_levine_says.html

Dodgers we agree on. And in your scenario, they would shop Billingsly, they have been trying to for a while.

Giants I disagree on. I think they will be in the hunt then look to maybe shop a pitcher. I fail to believe Lincecum would go to the bullpen being paid 17 million a year. I don't know their interest level, other than CBS says 'they really like them.' Could trade Bumgarner for great hitting at SS, LF and Catcher; when Posey eventually move to 1B. I fail to believe he will be a lifetime catcher. I believe he will go the Mauer route. Gregor Blanco is okay, definitely SF can do better.

Forgot about the Mariners. Huge ties with Japan through players, culture, and owners. Can't count them out.
 

CSF77

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Think the Diamonbacks are players also.

He posts expect just about every team to post.
 

beckdawg

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Giants I disagree on. I think they will be in the hunt then look to maybe shop a pitcher. I fail to believe Lincecum would go to the bullpen being paid 17 million a year. I don't know their interest level, other than CBS says 'they really like them.' Could trade Bumgarner for great hitting at SS, LF and Catcher; when Posey eventually move to 1B. I fail to believe he will be a lifetime catcher. I believe he will go the Mauer route. Gregor Blanco is okay, definitely SF can do better.

Maybe. But you have to think Hudson and Vogelsong figure into their rotation because they signed them this year. And Lincecum and Cain are making so much they have to be starters. They could trade Madison Bumgarner but I'd rather have him than Tanaka. He's a lefty, will be 24 next year and 2.77 ERA with 8.90 k/9 with 2.77 BB/9. If their going to give up Bumgarner I'd easily part with Castro and probably Soler too.
 

CSF77

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He is not a number 1 right now from everything I read. Scouts have been adamant on saying he is not as good as Yu Darvish. Could he still get better? I guess, but I would think transitioning to the US would be a lot harder for a pitcher who has certain techniques from a different country be able to change. I think he is better than Shark is right now, but Shark probably still has the higher ceiling.

I'm not so sure on Shark's ceiling. He has stuff but there have been plenty of stuff pitchers that have never taken it past back end of the rotation.

Tanaka's key has been his BB/SO ratio.4.50 Shark 2.29.

Last year Tanaka was BB at 1.4 per 9. while SO at a 8.4. Shark 3.8 at a 8.6 SO/9. So Shark is walking 3 batters per 9 more while striking out the same.

That control should translate over.

The main adjustments from the leagues is MLB mounds are harder. they run a 6 day rotation over there vs a 5. and I believe they run 144 games per year.

So there is adjustments to be made.
 

CSF77

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Accually a 6 day rotation is interesting. Force the starters to get into the 7th inning more with the extra day off. Lessens the load on the pen with more IP soaked with the rotation.

I kinda like what they are doing over there.Make it easier for the SP to get pitch counts into the 120's with a extra day off. Basically pitch 1 per week.
 

SilenceS

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Accually a 6 day rotation is interesting. Force the starters to get into the 7th inning more with the extra day off. Lessens the load on the pen with more IP soaked with the rotation.

I kinda like what they are doing over there.Make it easier for the SP to get pitch counts into the 120's with a extra day off. Basically pitch 1 per week.

He threw like over 200 pitches in 2 days over there for the playoffs. lol They don't baby there arms. Also, yes, Shark has better stuff hence why I said his ceiling is better. Shark ceiling is a 1. Tanaka ceiling they are saying is a real good 2. Shark is a power pitcher that can still throw 97 in the 9th. Teams covet that potential. Stop looking at his age and look at the mileage on the arm. Tanaka has more already and is 25. I am no way saying Shark will ever get there. I am just saying ceiling point of views.
 

CSF77

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http://www.baseballamerica.com/inte...e-20-million-posting-cap-for-masahiro-tanaka/

How Rakuten Can Get Around The $20 Million Posting Cap For Masahiro Tanaka
December 17, 2013 by Ben Badler

When Major League Baseball creates new rules governing the signing of international players, teams and player representatives find creative ways to get around them.

The newest rules affect Japanese players, with a posting system that places a $20 million cap on the “release fee” the Japanese team can make from allowing a player to be posted.

At the center of it all is the best pitcher in Japan, Masahiro Tanaka, who told Rakuten Eagles management and the Japanese media that he wants to pitch in MLB next season. The Eagles are hesitant to allow Tanaka to be posted, questioning whether the $20 million posting cap is fair compensation for allowing him to leave with two years left on his contract. Yu Darvish and Daisuke Matsuzaka commanded posting fees just north of $50 million each, and the Eagles were likely expecting in the range of $60 million for Tanaka.

The decision to allow Tanaka to be posted is ultimately up to the team. So how can the two sides compromise? One idea floating in international circles is that Tanaka could just agree to give Rakuten a percentage of his contract. But it’s not the only potential solution.

There is a way for Rakuten to get around the $20 million cap by taking a page from how MLB teams openly conduct business in Latin America. To be clear, there have been zero rumblings of this happening; It’s just an idea of how Rakuten could creatively come to a compromise with Tanaka.

Rakuten, essentially, would coordinate a package deal with Tanaka, another Eagles player and an agent who will represent both players and align himself with all three parties.

The Eagles would allow Tanaka to be posted for a $20 million release fee. Rakuten would also take a second player—preferably a low-salary reserve player it won’t miss—and post him, too; we’ll use a $15 million release fee for him, by way of example. The parties involved would all agree that, for an MLB team to sign Tanaka, it also has to sign the second player to a contract worth $1 million.

For the sake of argument, let’s suppose the Eagles were counting on a $60 million posting fee, and that Tanaka’s total value would have been $120 million.

If the Eagles are willing to post Tanaka now with no strings attached, the Eagles would make $20 million on the release fee and Tanaka could command $100 million. But since the Eagles seem to be wavering on whether to hold on to Tanaka for another two years, the package deal would be a compromise.

In the package deal, an MLB team would still pay $120 million total for Tanaka, but it would be partitioned differently. The MLB team would pay $20 million as the release fee for Tanaka, $15 million as the release fee for the second Eagles player and $1 million as the contract for the second player, with Tanaka signing an $84 million contract.

The Eagles would generate $35 million in revenues from the two release fees. Tanaka would be taking a $16 million hit from what he might make if the Eagles were to just post him for $20 million, but doing so accomplishes his goal of pitching in MLB next season rather than waiting two years, gives him an enormous raise and surpasses Darvish’s contract ($60 million) with the Rangers.

The deal works out for the second Eagles player, who would get a nice paycheck for himself, then perhaps be allowed to return to Japan in 2015. The agent for Tanaka would not make as much on Tanaka’s contract compared to him being posted with no package deal, but in exchange for minimizing his risk of waiting two more years for Tanaka to become an international free agent, he’s guaranteed in the neighborhood of $4 million in revenue on the commission.

Of course, once Tanaka is posted, there’s nothing binding a team to signing the Eagles bench player, which is why trust between Tanaka, his agent and Rakuten would be critical. Baseball—especially in the international world—is very much a relationship business.

In Latin America, teams do package deals for players all the time, for a variety of reasons. Pulling off this maneuver would certainly go against the spirit of the posting agreement, but the Eagles were also the only team vehemently opposed to the new system.

A package deal would be a compromise for all sides involved—and one that may infuriate the MLB commissioner’s office—but it could offer a solution that benefits several parties.
 

beckdawg

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Not sure it matters with regard to the Tanaka signing but the yanks just got hit with a $28 mil bill for last year for their luxury tax. That's pretty insane considering the Astro's payroll last year on opening day was $26 mil. Even if you compare it to say the cards who spend decent money it's around 1/4th what the cards had to spend and that's just the penalty they are paying.
 

beckdawg

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While the market for Shin-Soo Choo has been slow to develop, he could have already found a home had accepted a lavish offer from the Yankees. Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports reports that even after signing Jacoby Ellsbury to a seven-year, $153MM contract, the Yankees offered Choo a seven-year, $140MM contract. Agent Scott Boras reportedly countered by asking for Ellsbury money, and the Yankees instead elected to sign Carlos Beltran to a much cheaper three-year, $45MM pact.

Speaking of crazy pants....
 

brett05

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Actually it looks to be a good sign for the Cubs since winning isn't a priority but getting paid is and the Cubs could certainly do that.
 

CSF77

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I still believe it is all about the Q offer. They have made a rule of not losing the slot amount (don't believe it is the pick as it is the cash tied to it.)

If he was in the clear I'd bet they would be in the mix for him.

They should get creative. Make a trade with the Reds. Reds want to deal out Phillips and resign Choo. Move Hamiliton to 2B.

So Why don't they trade for Phillips. He could hit #4 on this team. They could figue it out on returns. Phillips caused head waves with their ownership and the Reds want out of the deal. Cubs have a few players that they could move who are not banking on.

12:$12.5M, 13:$10M, 14:$11M, 15:$12M, 16:$13M, 17:$14M
 

waldo7239117

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I'f fine with Phillips and I like him a lot, but the Reds may not want to trade with the Cubs and cost too much. But the Cubs shouldn't be afraid to take on contract in which isn't much.

Trade like Barney, Russell and a top 10 prospect for Phillips.
 

Jntg4

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My favorite teams
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Phillips offensive prowess is already in full decline, been two straight years below a 100 OPS+. I'm not sure how much having him around would help the team, especially since he could be displaced in just a few months by Baez.
 
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