The Javier Baez Discussion Thread

[beckdawg]

You have some good thoughts. But there is no way I'm going to read that long of a post. Other likely will skip it as well.

Just helping you out bro.

Well I obviously admit I'm a bit long winded but you have to know where I come from. I have a rather lengthy academic background so when I discuss things I'm used to doing things in 10+ page papers where it's not enough to just say K rate is bad. In particular, I wanted to talk about perception which TC and others have about a 30% K rate. I could just say its not going to allow Baez to be a star player but then why would anyone with a differing opinion change their mind? If I physically go into the numbers and show that it likely makes Baez a .220/.290 hitter it is clearer.

There's also the issue that people seem to think I'm just hating on Baez for whatever reason. By talking in this sort of detail I can show why I feel the way I do rather than it just being me not liking him. In my personal opinion, the points aren't as good without the arguments to back them up.

 

[Parade_Rain]

Well I obviously admit I'm a bit long winded but you have to know where I come from. I have a rather lengthy academic background so when I discuss things I'm used to doing things in 10+ page papers where it's not enough to just say K rate is bad. In particular, I wanted to talk about perception which TC and others have about a 30% K rate. I could just say its not going to allow Baez to be a star player but then why would anyone with a differing opinion change their mind? If I physically go into the numbers and show that it likely makes Baez a .220/.290 hitter it is clearer.

There's also the issue that people seem to think I'm just hating on Baez for whatever reason. By talking in this sort of detail I can show why I feel the way I do rather than it just being me not liking him. In my personal opinion, the points aren't as good without the arguments to back them up.

"Power good. K rate bad. No plate discipline. Trade him!" See how that works, Beckdawg?

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Well I obviously admit I'm a bit long winded but you have to know where I come from. I have a rather lengthy academic background so when I discuss things I'm used to doing things in 10+ page papers where it's not enough to just say K rate is bad. In particular, I wanted to talk about perception which TC and others have about a 30% K rate. I could just say its not going to allow Baez to be a star player but then why would anyone with a differing opinion change their mind? If I physically go into the numbers and show that it likely makes Baez a .220/.290 hitter it is clearer.

There's also the issue that people seem to think I'm just hating on Baez for whatever reason. By talking in this sort of detail I can show why I feel the way I do rather than it just being me not liking him. In my personal opinion, the points aren't as good without the arguments to back them up.

I read your whole post, I understand your math and I don't necessarily disagree. I've also never been a huge fan of the three outcome player but, and I think I mentioned this, I had a conversation (ok a conversation with beer) last year with a couple of scouts at a AA game and one was on your side of the argument solidly, the other was far to the other side and felt that because Baez was so smart he would develop plate discipline in short order and increase his walks dramatically. He didn't think that would happen until he got to the bigs though. He was taking a .270-.280 hitter/.330/.570 or so. I remember that math pretty distinctly. He also felt he would hit 40 HR consistently. My point has been that if Theo's guys think like either of these scouts (the naysayer was independent and the other worked for a team where the cities are routinely combined into one entity) then the decision has been made. You won't know that because if they don't believe in him they still want to sell him. I felt pretty strongly when they acquired Addison Russell that he was picked up not because of the conventional wisdom that they were giving up on Castro but rather that they were giving up on Baez. Hard to say now. If Baez was offered as an alternative to Russell at the waiver deadline for Hamels it's hard to understand why they deal didn't get done. Ruben Amaro Jr. is not a strikout nazi and neither is his manager Ryne Sandberg. I guess I'm saying we don't know. The upside is drool worthy, the alternative is bust. Personally I'm far more excited about Bryant, Scwarber and Russell than Baez but I think it's fooish as fans, however well reasoned, to assume the worst on Baez. That's all I'm saying.