The Kizer train

Luke

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I’ve been thinking about this recently. Mayock and DJ(18) have him as their top QB and I heard Gabriel on the Score this morning also saying DK is his top QB who will be a better pro than collegiate. Much of what he said was in the article below. Yesterday on Sports live, Hub also said every NFL evaluator he has spoken to (probably Gabriel) says that Kizer is first, Watson is 2nd then Trubisky. When they get to Indy and see his prototypical 6-5, 230 frame combined with that arm and the way he spins it teams will drool. He also is supposed to be very smart so I think his personal interviews (like Watson) will go over very well with teams. He very well might end up having a mid 1st round grade which might just be high enough for Pace to select him at #3, much like the Jags did with Bortles.


By Greg Gabriel–
(CBS) When you partake in the process of evaluating quarterbacks, you can’t just look at a few games and say that you know the player. You have to look closely at the whole body of work at such a critical position.
As it pertains to Notre Dame quarterback DeShone Kizer, that means looking at both 2015 and 2016 tape.
The 21-year-old Kizer has ideal NFL size for the quarterback position. At the NFL Combine, he will measure close to6-foot-4 and 230 pounds, and I would estimate he will run in the 4.70 range. He’s big, strong and athletic. While he doesn’t have the quick athleticism of, say, a Russell Wilson, he will most likely test better than Jameis Winston, who has similar size.
Kizer has a really strong arm and can easily throw the ball 60 yards down field. He shows outstanding velocity on short- to mid-range throws. Put simply, he can make all the throws a a top NFL quarterback is asked to do.
He also has the athleticism to extend plays with his feet or just be a runner. He had a number of long runs in his Notre Dame career and, when he wants, can be a punishing runner with his size and power.
When you look at Kizer’s mechanics, he holds the ball high and has a quick overhand delivery. When he makes a decision, the ball is out of his hand quickly.
The spread offense that Kizer played in at Notre Dame is more sophisticated than many of the spread offenses we see elsewhere at the collegiate level. The Notre Dame offense is a whole-field read scheme in which the quarterback has to go through a progression that encompasses both sides of the field. He also can change the play and/or protections at the line of scrimmage. Given all that, Kizer was asked to do more than many spread quarterbacks are asked to do.
When you look at 2015 tape, Kizer made some really impressive throws, both short and deep, and was productive. He threw for for 2,884 yards and 21 scores with 10 interceptions in 2015. He also rushed 520 yards.
One key was that Kizer was playing behind a veteran offensive line, two members of which were high draft picks a year ago. He also had a veteran receiving corps.
For instance, we saw many quick slant throws in 2015 that we seldom saw in 2016. He also was much more accurate on his deep throws in 2015. In fact, one general manager told me after the 2015 season that Kizer was a Super Bowl-type quarterback and could start for his team right away.
Much of that changed in 2016. There was the unnecessary quarterback controversy at Notre Dame, and the offensive line wasn’t as experienced or as talented and the receivers were mostly first-year starters.
The controversy was brought about because going into the 2015 season, Malik Zaire was the starter. He broke his ankle in the second game, and Kizer took over from there. The issue stemmed from Irish coach Brian Kelly not knowing what he had in Kizer initially, so he told Zaire after the injury that he would be the starter in 2016, when he’d be back to full health.
Kelly found out in quick order that he had someone special in Kizer, but he couldn’t go back on his word. And thus the ensuing dilemma, one in which the two quarterbacks would split series in the season opener. Kizer ended up outperforming Zaire and was given the starting job, but the damage was done. I believe he felt he was always looking over his shoulder and that the early approach hurt his confidence and thus overall play in 2016.
Kizer was also playing with a far less experienced group of players, and his play fell off. Throws that he had made easily in 2015, he wasn’t making in 2016. With a horrible defense, Notre Dame either had to play catch-up or always score in order to stay in a game, which led to similar final stat line despite his play dropping off.
I have no doubt that Kizer is the most talented quarterback in this draft class. Circumstances beyond his control led to him not having the 2016 season that many envisioned. Are there areas he needs to improve in? Certainly, but that’s the case with every quarterback. Kizer too often tries to make the big play instead of taking what’s there, and that can lead to costly turnovers.
Still, when you look at the big picture and his physical traits, he compares quite favorably to the other top quarterbacks.
The final quarterback rankings will be determined over the next eight weeks as teams put the top prospects through private workouts and meetings, which will tell decision-makers a lot. I expect Kizer to perform well.
 

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I am all aboard.
 

mattb78

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Thanks for the post. Kizer has too many red flags, production wise, of a high turnover QB. I posted on this a few days ago.

Having been plagued with several years of questionable decision making at the QB position, I doubt the Bears invest in a similar prospect in the draft.
 

bearmick

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Thanks for the post. Kizer has too many red flags, production wise, of a high turnover QB. I posted on this a few days ago.

Having been plagued with several years of questionable decision making at the QB position, I doubt the Bears invest in a similar prospect in the draft.

You keep talking about "red flags" about Kizer and Watson. These are the two most talented QBs in the draft. Probably the two most talented QBs of the last two drafts combined. I want talent and upside when it comes to QB, I don't want to settle for someone lesser but safer.

the last thing I want Pace doing is letting Jay Cutler make him gun shy about doing his job.
 

JeffChrist

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I would be on board if they traded back into the bottom of the first round to grab him if he's still there. The only issue with that is our trade partner will know that we are desperate for a QB and we may be gouged.
 

Dagman310

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I’ve been thinking about this recently. Mayock and DJ(18) have him as their top QB and I heard Gabriel on the Score this morning also saying DK is his top QB who will be a better pro than collegiate. Much of what he said was in the article below. Yesterday on Sports live, Hub also said every NFL evaluator he has spoken to (probably Gabriel) says that Kizer is first, Watson is 2nd then Trubisky. When they get to Indy and see his prototypical 6-5, 230 frame combined with that arm and the way he spins it teams will drool. He also is supposed to be very smart so I think his personal interviews (like Watson) will go over very well with teams. He very well might end up having a mid 1st round grade which might just be high enough for Pace to select him at #3, much like the Jags did with Bortles.




By Greg Gabriel–
(CBS) When you partake in the process of evaluating quarterbacks, you can’t just look at a few games and say that you know the player. You have to look closely at the whole body of work at such a critical position.
As it pertains to Notre Dame quarterback DeShone Kizer, that means looking at both 2015 and 2016 tape.
The 21-year-old Kizer has ideal NFL size for the quarterback position. At the NFL Combine, he will measure close to6-foot-4 and 230 pounds, and I would estimate he will run in the 4.70 range. He’s big, strong and athletic. While he doesn’t have the quick athleticism of, say, a Russell Wilson, he will most likely test better than Jameis Winston, who has similar size.
Kizer has a really strong arm and can easily throw the ball 60 yards down field. He shows outstanding velocity on short- to mid-range throws. Put simply, he can make all the throws a a top NFL quarterback is asked to do.
He also has the athleticism to extend plays with his feet or just be a runner. He had a number of long runs in his Notre Dame career and, when he wants, can be a punishing runner with his size and power.
When you look at Kizer’s mechanics, he holds the ball high and has a quick overhand delivery. When he makes a decision, the ball is out of his hand quickly.
The spread offense that Kizer played in at Notre Dame is more sophisticated than many of the spread offenses we see elsewhere at the collegiate level. The Notre Dame offense is a whole-field read scheme in which the quarterback has to go through a progression that encompasses both sides of the field. He also can change the play and/or protections at the line of scrimmage. Given all that, Kizer was asked to do more than many spread quarterbacks are asked to do.
When you look at 2015 tape, Kizer made some really impressive throws, both short and deep, and was productive. He threw for for 2,884 yards and 21 scores with 10 interceptions in 2015. He also rushed 520 yards.
One key was that Kizer was playing behind a veteran offensive line, two members of which were high draft picks a year ago. He also had a veteran receiving corps.
For instance, we saw many quick slant throws in 2015 that we seldom saw in 2016. He also was much more accurate on his deep throws in 2015. In fact, one general manager told me after the 2015 season that Kizer was a Super Bowl-type quarterback and could start for his team right away.
Much of that changed in 2016. There was the unnecessary quarterback controversy at Notre Dame, and the offensive line wasn’t as experienced or as talented and the receivers were mostly first-year starters.
The controversy was brought about because going into the 2015 season, Malik Zaire was the starter. He broke his ankle in the second game, and Kizer took over from there. The issue stemmed from Irish coach Brian Kelly not knowing what he had in Kizer initially, so he told Zaire after the injury that he would be the starter in 2016, when he’d be back to full health.
Kelly found out in quick order that he had someone special in Kizer, but he couldn’t go back on his word. And thus the ensuing dilemma, one in which the two quarterbacks would split series in the season opener. Kizer ended up outperforming Zaire and was given the starting job, but the damage was done. I believe he felt he was always looking over his shoulder and that the early approach hurt his confidence and thus overall play in 2016.
Kizer was also playing with a far less experienced group of players, and his play fell off. Throws that he had made easily in 2015, he wasn’t making in 2016. With a horrible defense, Notre Dame either had to play catch-up or always score in order to stay in a game, which led to similar final stat line despite his play dropping off.
I have no doubt that Kizer is the most talented quarterback in this draft class. Circumstances beyond his control led to him not having the 2016 season that many envisioned. Are there areas he needs to improve in? Certainly, but that’s the case with every quarterback. Kizer too often tries to make the big play instead of taking what’s there, and that can lead to costly turnovers.
Still, when you look at the big picture and his physical traits, he compares quite favorably to the other top quarterbacks.
The final quarterback rankings will be determined over the next eight weeks as teams put the top prospects through private workouts and meetings, which will tell decision-makers a lot. I expect Kizer to perform well.

I am warming up more and more on both Kizer and Watson. If we can get either with the #3 pick I think it would be worth the swing. Even if both QB's light it up at the combine and workouts, end up going 1 and 2 then we get the consolation prize in Garrett. Pick 3 is pretty nice, I hope we never have a shitty enough season to draft this high again tho.
 

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He has an NFL body, if the mental part checks out he is my #1 QB. His interviews with teams will mean a ton.
 

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E.J. Manuel 2.0

160121024.gif
 

bearmick

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It's hard to keep up with the "it's a horrible QB class" brigade. I thought Watson was the next EJ Manuel. I guess today it's Kizer.

Bottom line - dark QBs are all the next [insert previous dark QB who busted].
 

mattb78

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You keep talking about "red flags" about Kizer and Watson. These are the two most talented QBs in the draft. Probably the two most talented QBs of the last two drafts combined. I want talent and upside when it comes to QB, I don't want to settle for someone lesser but safer.

I agree there is a lot to like about Watson and Kizer. But you cannot ignore the warts if you are going to take them #3 overall.

Look at the top QBs in the league, Brady, Rodgers, Ryan, all of these guys are around 1% INT rate. Both Kizer and Watson are +3%. Mental processing ability is one thing that doesn't improve very much from college to pros.

Am I saying draft a "game manager". Absolutely not. But the great QBs in this league, they are great throwers and great game managers as well. They do both very well. They consistently win because they analyze the field and make the high percentage throw.

Would I take a guy with a weak arm at #3? Nobody would. But when you analyze the top QBs in the game right now, taking a guy with questionable decision making and inability to mentally process the game at the highest levels, its a similar handicap.

I got roasted for suggesting that Mariota was a better prospect than Winston because he turned the ball over less. I still may be wrong about this, but Mariota's decision making put him in the top 1/3 in QB rating this season, while Winston was in the bottom 1/3.
 

bearmick

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I agree there is a lot to like about Watson and Kizer. But you cannot ignore the warts if you are going to take them #3 overall.

Look at the top QBs in the league, Brady, Rodgers, Ryan, all of these guys are around 1% INT rate. Both Kizer and Watson are +3%. Mental processing ability is one thing that doesn't improve very much from college to pros.

Your own example, Matt Ryan, accounted for 31 TDs and threw 19 picks in his final year of college. He isn't a high turnover guy in the pros. He's a smart guy who learned well and was highly coachable.

Watson accounted for 50 TDs and threw 17 picks against better opposition. He's a very smart guy who will be highly coachable.

I take their flaws into account but I don't see his as prohibitive, especially when weighing them against his upside.
 

wazzupi

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Ryan threw 31-19 tds to int his last college season and 15-10 the year before.
 

wazzupi

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Your own example, Matt Ryan, accounted for 31 TDs and threw 19 picks in his final year of college. He isn't a high turnover guy in the pros. He's a smart guy who learned well and was highly coachable.

Watson accounted for 50 TDs and threw 17 picks against better opposition. He's a very smart guy who will be highly coachable.

I take their flaws into account but I don't see his as prohibitive, especially when weighing them against his upside.

Stop copying me !! I dont like Watson's ceiling if there is any left and I don't like his arm talent or starring contest.
 

ZenBear34

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ANALYSIS
STRENGTHS Physically imposing passer. Throws from the shotgun often, but is also effective on play action. Flashes the velocity to stretch the field and throw in tight spaces. Displays good touch on throws to each level of the field, finds receivers between defenders and drop passes over their head. Good athlete with the mobility to step up in the pocket to avoid pressure and take advantage of openings to pick up first downs with his feet. Quick release, though it often looks as though he's throwing darts on shorter throws. Intelligent, high character team leader.
WEAKNESSES Gives opponents too many chances for turnovers by forcing throws into coverage trying to make a play. Area code accuracy -- short throws are often low or wide, preventing receivers from making a play after the catch. Deep ball accuracy is uneven as well. Gets happy feet under pressure, spins to the outside to avoid the rush. Inconsistent recognizing blitz. Must step into his throws more consistently to fully utilize his arm strength.

BOTTOM LINE As gifted as any quarterback in the class, with a strong arm and good mobility. Scouts appreciate his leadership qualities and toughness (played through his mom's cancer treatments and a broken leg in 2011's Champs Sports Bowl win over Notre Dame), and hope he can improve on his consistency. Manuel has the velocity and mobility teams look for in a project quarterback.
 

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ANALYSIS
STRENGTHS Physically imposing passer. Throws from the shotgun often, but is also effective on play action. Flashes the velocity to stretch the field and throw in tight spaces. Displays good touch on throws to each level of the field, finds receivers between defenders and drop passes over their head. Good athlete with the mobility to step up in the pocket to avoid pressure and take advantage of openings to pick up first downs with his feet. Quick release, though it often looks as though he's throwing darts on shorter throws. Intelligent, high character team leader.
WEAKNESSES Gives opponents too many chances for turnovers by forcing throws into coverage trying to make a play. Area code accuracy -- short throws are often low or wide, preventing receivers from making a play after the catch. Deep ball accuracy is uneven as well. Gets happy feet under pressure, spins to the outside to avoid the rush. Inconsistent recognizing blitz. Must step into his throws more consistently to fully utilize his arm strength.

BOTTOM LINE As gifted as any quarterback in the class, with a strong arm and good mobility. Scouts appreciate his leadership qualities and toughness (played through his mom's cancer treatments and a broken leg in 2011's Champs Sports Bowl win over Notre Dame), and hope he can improve on his consistency. Manuel has the velocity and mobility teams look for in a project quarterback.


"Buffalo certainly can't blame Florida St. coach Jimbo Fisher for overselling it on quarterback EJ Manuel," Schefter said on Sunday NFL Countdown. "He was adamant throughout the pre-draft evaluation process that he didn't believe Manuel had the tools to be an NFL starter and he shouldn't be any better than a third-round pick.
"Fisher was extremely positive about Manuel as a person and as a hard worker, but he was very open and honest with teams about how limited he felt Manuel was as a quarterback prospect. Fisher also told teams that even if Manuel were eligible to return for another season, he had a redshirt freshman quarterback he had been developing waiting in the wings. A guy by the name of Jameis Winston."
 

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