Let's say LaRoche at 1 year and 8 million. With Dunn at 3 years, 40 million. Or roughly, 1 year 13 million(that's the cheap end).
LaRoche is going to give us about 10 runs with his bat, 5 with the glove, in 600 ABs at 1B. That's about 2.5 wins. Or about $3.2 MM/win.
Dunn is going to give us about 30 runs with the bat and negative 10 runs with the glove(that's the low end, too). That's 20 runs in 600 AB's at 1B. That's 2.7 wins, or 4.8 MM/win. LaRoche > Dunn.
Now, I don't think that will happen. I think that Dunn will get more than 40 million. I'd say about 45 million, or 15 million per. But I also do not think he will be a -10 run defender. I see him closer to neutral. So let's give him neutral runs at 1B, with 15 million per. 3.7 wins, or about 4 million a win. If we give him the save 3.7 wins at 13 million per, we get 3.5 MM/win.
So yeah, LaRoche is worth more in terms of WAR and value per win. Last time I checked, that's a baseball universe.
That's right, I forgot about the universe where you suck at research.
Adam Dunn Statistics and History - Baseball-Reference.com
Adam LaRoche Statistics and History - Baseball-Reference.com
Adam Dunn dWAR per 600 PA's: -.544
Adam LaRoche dWAR per 600 PA's: -.39
Dunn oWAR per 600 PA's: 3.23
LaRoche oWAR per 600 PA's: 1.576
Dunn WAR per 600 PA's: 2.73
LaRoche WAR per 600 PA's: 1.186
Dunn proposed 2011 salary: $13 million
LaRoche proposed 2011 salary: $8 million
Dunn: .21 WAR per 600 PA's per million
LaRoche: .148 WAR per 600 PA's per million
Dunn > LaRoche
Also, given the ratio of production per dollar of Dunn and LaRoche, Dunn's salary could be increased by as much as 41% (arriving at $18 million total) until he would just equal the rate of production per dollar of LaRoche.
Now, I know you want to fire back about how Dunn has played a lot more OF innings in his career than he has at first base, so just using his overall dWAR rates doesn't paint the right picture and so on, but keep this in mind: Dunn's best defensive season in the last six years was 2010 (-0.3 dWAR), where he played all of his 1200+ defensive innings at first base. So, you can accept that outfield innings are included in these calculations, or I can re-compute the data with that weighted -0.3 dWAR at first base as the prime defensive contributor, your choice. Also, the dWAR stats are using the league average defensive Zone Runs as the replacement level, which is just absolutely absurd, because 1) a league-average player is by definition better than a replacement player and 2) the league-average, as any intelligent champion of Zone Rating metrics will tell you, fluctuates rather violently, resulting in a not-so concrete view of a player's ability.
Pujols isn't leaving STL, so there is no way we get him anyway.
So? You said "they're not worth it" in reference to a group that included Pujols. Please explain how Pujols is decidedly "not worth it".
Gonzalez, on the other hand, is going to require prospects plus money for an extension. He may not even be worth the extension, definitely not the players too. He is going to command so much.
No more talking about baseball for you.
