The unhealthy obsession with forcing turnovers to win games

[TheEarlofRobin]

Patrick Mahomes had 14 picks and he has 11 this year. Why aren't the Chiefs among the worst teams in the NFL if they're not among best in turnover differential?

Because the Chiefs have a healthy obsession?

 

[Canth]

You missed the point. The Bears entire identity for the last 20 years has been that. They've have very little success even when they are among the best at forcing turnovers.

Patrick Mahomes had 14 picks and he has 11 this year. Why aren't the Chiefs among the worst teams in the NFL if they're not among best in turnover differential?

Because last year KC had a top 2 defense that kept them in every game long enough for their offense to figure it out.

This year, it's the same situation but the defense is now merely top 10 (hovering around 6 or 7).

KC's offense has struggled, but their defense keeps them in every game long enough for Mahomes and co. to eventually make enough plays to score and win.

Maybe the KC defense does not get as many turnovers, but they actually make stops and get off the field. You don't have to get multiple turnovers on defense every game if can actually force drives to stop and not give up massive yardage every drive.

The problem with Tampa 2 zone defense, especially this latest Bears version, is that they give up so much easy yardage and can't get off the field on 3rd down. So, they find themselves in long drives defensively and need to find a way to get a turnover to bail themselves out of the fact that they too easily allow drives to be sustained.

And all that has **** all to do with the fact that no HC or QB is going to want to turn the ball over. Like, I seriously doubt Mahomes is happy with his INT numbers right now. But, they actually find ways to win so it doesn't get talked about as much.

 

[legendxofxlink]

Personally, I feel, and this just came to me while reading this thread, that Bears should practice all offseason and in season as well, even through preseason, on ways to score more points than their opponent. Someone fact check me, but I truly believe if they could just implement this small task on game day, they could actually win more games than they lose.

 

[DanielCCSBears]

Because last year KC had a top 2 defense that kept them in every game long enough for their offense to figure it out.

This year, it's the same situation but the defense is now merely top 10 (hovering around 6 or 7).

KC's offense has struggled, but their defense keeps them in every game long enough for Mahomes and co. to eventually make enough plays to score and win.

Maybe the KC defense does not get as many turnovers, but they actually make stops and get off the field. You don't have to get multiple turnovers on defense every game if can actually force drives to stop and not give up massive yardage every drive.

The problem with Tampa 2 zone defense, especially this latest Bears version, is that they give up so much easy yardage and can't get off the field on 3rd down. So, they find themselves in long drives defensively and need to find a way to get a turnover to bail themselves out of the fact that they too easily allow drives to be sustained.

And all that has **** all to do with the fact that no HC or QB is going to want to turn the ball over. Like, I seriously doubt Mahomes is happy with his INT numbers right now. But, they actually find ways to win so it doesn't get talked about as much.

Who had the number 1 defense last year?

Why didn't they win the Super Bowl?

 

[TheEarlofRobin]

Who had the number 1 defense last year?

Why didn't they win the Super Bowl?

Because they had an unhealthy obsession with playing defense? Just spitballing here.

 

[ILoveDick]

Your Chicago Bears are 4th in the NFL in turnover differential at a plus 10. This of course is supposed to equate to more wins.
This is primarily why Matt Eberflus was hired was for the Bears to renew their Lovie Smith era ability take the football away, to the detriment of EVERYTHING else.

No pass rush, no pass protection and zero consistency from the offense.

But NFL offenses have adjusted and turnovers across the league are. QBs are protecting the football better than ever.

The impact of turnovers is still there but if you can't force QBs into making mistakes or if you don't have the fucking offense to take advantage of a turnover, there's no value to it. It's like getting an offensive rebound, it looks pretty unless you're missing the second chance basket.

The Bears have failed miserably and the record speaks for itself.

Hopefully they'll avoid the defensive minded head coach who constantly hamstrings his offense with his defensive mentality.

It's just another indictment of a massively overrated roster during the offseason.

 

[modo]

turnovers can mask a bad defense...

you still want turnovers regardless of your defense being bad or good.....you really really want them.

 

[DanielCCSBears]

turnovers can mask a bad defense...

you still want turnovers regardless of your defense being bad or good.....you really really want them.

Want turnovers, sure. But the Bears do it the detriment of the rest of the team.

Trading an All-Pro linebacker because he didn't get enough turnovers. Not doing an early contract extension on Jaylon Johnson to save money because Jaylon Johnson didn't get enough turnovers.

Is there a theme here?

 

[Discus fish salesman]

Who had the number 1 defense last year?

Why didn't they win the Super Bowl?

The team that lost to the #2 defense because they turned it over too much

 

[IHATETHEBEARS(IHTB)]

Personally, I feel, and this just came to me while reading this thread, that Bears should practice all offseason and in season as well, even through preseason, on ways to score more points than their opponent. Someone fact check me, but I truly believe if they could just implement this small task on game day, they could actually win more games than they lose.

It’s very difficult to lose when you outscore your opponent. But somehow I feel this 2024 Bears team could find a way.

 

[Forty-six]

I think OP is saying the Bears have traditionally prioritized winning the turnover battle and have neglected developing a franchise QB, weapons at the skill positions and an effective offense. Defensive HC's want to run the ball, limit turnovers by taking few risks on offense and win with defense. This has been the Bears model since forever. It's produced one SB championship and another SB appearance. That's all we've got. The rest of the time the Bears have been essentially unwatchable, a clown show, an embarrassment, completely inept.

We need to try something different.

 

[Ares]

It’s very difficult to lose when you outscore your opponent. But somehow I feel this 2024 Bears team could find a way.

How about like a game where nobody scores, just an errant snap out the back of the end zone.

Lose 2-0 like a shitty baseball game.

Break beer halftime sales records.

 

[1COBearsfan]

Want turnovers, sure. But the Bears do it the detriment of the rest of the team.

Trading an All-Pro linebacker because he didn't get enough turnovers. Not doing an early contract extension on Jaylon Johnson to save money because Jaylon Johnson didn't get enough turnovers.

Is there a theme here?

Yes. You’re f.u.c.k.i.n.g r.e.t.a.r.d.e.d

 

[Myk]

Maybe if we focus a few more drafts on DBs we can fix that.

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

This thread made me finally realize that Eberflus was a bad head coach. I hope the rest of the board also figures this out. Thanks Daniel!

That's exactly it. The only way this stat doesn't result in more wins is to have a historically bad coach which is exactly what we had.

In NFL history typically winning the turnover battle leads to a lot more wins, so there's nothing unhealthy focusing on it.

I mean damn, Lovie Smith made a coaching career out of it and ended up with teams that were absolute bumslayers with padded winstats because they always won the turnover battle.

If you're looking for the most direct way to get wins and into the playoffs, win the turnover battle and don't have a historically bad head coach, and you typically will beat up on all the bad teams.

 

[DanielCCSBears]

I think OP is saying the Bears have traditionally prioritized winning the turnover battle and have neglected developing a franchise QB, weapons at the skill positions and an effective offense. Defensive HC's want to run the ball, limit turnovers by taking few risks on offense and win with defense. This has been the Bears model since forever. It's produced one SB championship and another SB appearance. That's all we've got. The rest of the time the Bears have been essentially unwatchable, a clown show, an embarrassment, completely inept.

We need to try something different.

Oh hey I appreciate you being smart enough to follow my thought process. Not being condescending towards you at all, you genuinely hit the nail on the head.

And here people are pining for Mike Vrabel. Thinking that they can just gin up the next Dan Campbell.

The Bears have had exactly one legitimate stability at an offensive minded head coach and that was Matt Nagy. Mind you Nagy has no track record of success nor had he ever called plays.

No I don't count Marc Trestman because he was never going to be a head coach anywhere else in the NFL.

 

[Gustavus Adolphus]

Perhaps someone who isn't on the absentee father's ignore list can share this with him:

All offseason, coach Kenny Dillingham preached getting turnovers. Forty seconds into the season's first game, the defense produced its first one.

ASU coach Kenny Dillingham praises defense after 3-turnover night against Wyoming

All offseason, coach Kenny Dillingham preached getting turnovers. Forty seconds into the season's first game, the defense produced its first one.

sports.yahoo.com

https://www.foxsports.com/college-football/team-stats?category=turnovers&sort=to&season=2024&seasonType=reg&sortOrder=desc

 

[TheEarlofRobin]

Oh hey I appreciate you being smart enough to follow my thought process. Not being condescending towards you at all, you genuinely hit the nail on the head.

In the 12 years since the Bears fired Lovie, they've finished in the top 10 in turnover differential exactly once. This year they are on pace to do it a second time. I see this thought process as tilting at windmills.....which is ultimately....unhealthy.

 

[Gustavus Adolphus]

I hate to make it appear as if I'm living in the year 2225, but imagine having an obsession with forcing turnovers because it gives your offense more opportunities to score, thereby allowing you to develop QBs and skill position players.

I just fucking revolutionized the game.

 

[KittiesKorner]

so wanting your defense to force turnovers is mutually exclusive with developing a franchise qb, because... huh?

What a thought process!