Great plays show up almost immediately. Brisker you can see it right away. Last year with Herbert as a rookie.
Historically speaking Forte, Mike Brown Urlacher.
Recent QB history Mahomes Burrow Watson.
Tua is having a good season but is being bolstered in a big way by his receivers. Same with Hurts, nice season but AJ Brown is bolstering him.
But do you believe for a second any of them are going to be as good as Mahomes has been since his first year as a starter?
Maybe Fields improves next year to a high level but the Bears won't win a Super Bowl with him. He won't be able to go toe to toe in the final 6 minutes of a game with Mahomes.
Fields is going to need an almost ideal team around him to win with his arm. I've seen this way too many times before.
Let's look at these QBs mentioned. Mahomes - sat 1st year, was electric once he secured starting role year his 2nd year in the league and been rolling ever since. Had Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins and Travis Kelce along with one of the best offensive coaches in the league. Is the best QB in the game, bar none.
Burrow - looked shaky year 1. Added Jamar Chase to go with Tee Higgins from the previous year's draft along with Tyler Boyd. Also had a 1200 yard rusher in year two. So they've added 3 huge pieces that pushed their previous #2 receiver down to their #3 wide receiver while adding two elite WR talents.
Watson - only played 7 games his rookie year, often made chicken salad out of chicken shit. However, he did have an elite 4th year wide receiver in DeAndre Hopkins who was among the top 3 WRs in the league at the time. Year 2, he really took off as he also had the benefit of an incredible defense. Will Fuller was a great deep shot guy that opened everything up for Hopkins to catch everything.
Tua - 3rd year in the league, added Waddle along with Tyreek Hill and an offensive minded coach and boom, excelling in year 3.
Hurts - 3rd year in the league, added AJ Brown along with the addition of Devonta Smith the year prior. Has a good tight end in Godert.
None of these are remotely comparable situations. Look at every single one of those guys - they all had at least 1 elite superstar WR and a 2nd good to very good wide receiver. The one with the least amount of offensive weapons was arguably Watson but he also had the benefit of an incredible defense so less need to take risks.
Justin Fields doesn't even have a single "good" receiver much less an elite one. He's got a bunch of #3 or #4 wide receivers on a championship caliber team. They're just dudes. The only one I really like is Kmet who may develop into an above average to pro bowl tight end but he isn't there now. It's a ridiculous comparison.