Trading for Justin Upton

[MRubio52]

I didn't want to respond in the open thread because ye gods are merciless and I don't want to incur their wrath.

This idea has been thrown out there a few times:

The Cubs should trade Starlin Castro for Justin Upton.

The pros of this move are that you get an athletic RF with legit power and a refined approach at the plate. You lose the wild swinging defensive butcher known as Starlin Castro and bring up one of your young SS phenom prospects and get the best of both worlds.

So let's do a comparison of the two players and see how they grade out.

Justin Upton

Thus far an every other year player who at his worst is a .785 OPS guy. Still oozes potential, has shown 30 HR power, has shown an ability to draw walks. Has a season of 75 XBH. Solid all-around player.

Career slash line of .278/.357/.475 Career OPS of .832, career OPS+ of 117. Capable of .280/.350/.500.

Last year he struggled to make adjustments early as the league adjusted to him. Got out of the gates slow and was inconsistent with the power all year. This is probably as bad as Upton will get and I fully expect him to have a good rebound in 2013.

He is 25.

Starlin Castro

Thus far a free swinging hitter who is still trying to figure it out defensively. At his worst he is a .740 OPS guy, oozes potential, has shown an ability to hit .300, has shown flashes of defensive brilliance, has shown gap power and average-above average HR power.

Career slash line of .297/.336/.425 Career OPS of .761, career OPS+ of 106.

Basement is probably his current production. Given that it's been three years and pitchers know he loves chasing low and away sliders and he still hit .280 it's hard to see him getting worse at the plate.

He is 22.

I would consider it, but I wouldn't pull the trigger.

There are a few reasons for this. The first is age. Yes, Upton has more power, more patience, and on the surface more offensive upside, but Starlin Castro was learning Major League hitting at 19. That does count for something. Castro can hit. You can learn patience, you can't learn to become a 7 hitter like Castro. Upton will likely end up with more HR's, but I think that Castro's offensive production will be on par with his.

It's easier to find a good hitting right fielder than it is to find a good hitting shortstop. The average RF hit for a .262/.327/.434 clip and an OPS of .761. The average shortstop hit .257/.310/.378 for a .688 OPS. Think about that, right now the raw undisciplined Starlin Castro is a top five offensive shortstop in all of baseball. Hell next year he could be top two. At his peak last year, when he put it all together, Justin Upton was the second or third best RF in the league. This year he fell to 14th best according to WAR. If he falls into his last three year average WAR of 3.1 he's the 8th-11th best RFer in baseball.

Lastly, defensively Starlin Castro is improving. If people want to stick to errors as the main fielding stat, I'll bring up another flawed stat in Range Factor and point out that he led the league in that last year. And assists, and putouts. Does his fielding % need to go up? Yeah, and it has every year he's been in the league.

I think he ends up being an average to above average defensive player and a superb offensive player. I would look at it, but ultimately I wouldn't pull the trigger.

 

[Rice Cube]

Funny you should mention this :lol:

http://worldseriesdreaming.com/2012/07/13/a-trade-to-consider/ (from dabynsky)

http://worldseriesdreaming.com/2012/08/15/the-starlin-castro-dilemma/ (Packle right before the contract extension)

http://worldseriesdreaming.com/2012/08/31/a-take-on-the-starlin-castro-contract/ (Packle after the contract extension)

 

[X]

I didn't want to respond in the open thread because ye gods are merciless and I don't want to incur their wrath.

This idea has been thrown out there a few times:

The Cubs should trade Starlin Castro for Justin Upton.

The pros of this move are that you get an athletic RF with legit power and a refined approach at the plate. You lose the wild swinging defensive butcher known as Starlin Castro and bring up one of your young SS phenom prospects and get the best of both worlds.

So let's do a comparison of the two players and see how they grade out.

Justin Upton

Thus far an every other year player who at his worst is a .785 OPS guy. Still oozes potential, has shown 30 HR power, has shown an ability to draw walks. Has a season of 75 XBH. Solid all-around player.

Career slash line of .278/.357/.475 Career OPS of .832, career OPS+ of 117. Capable of .280/.350/.500.

Last year he struggled to make adjustments early as the league adjusted to him. Got out of the gates slow and was inconsistent with the power all year. This is probably as bad as Upton will get and I fully expect him to have a good rebound in 2013.

He is 25.

Starlin Castro

Thus far a free swinging hitter who is still trying to figure it out defensively. At his worst he is a .740 OPS guy, oozes potential, has shown an ability to hit .300, has shown flashes of defensive brilliance, has shown gap power and average-above average HR power.

Career slash line of .297/.336/.425 Career OPS of .761, career OPS+ of 106.

Basement is probably his current production. Given that it's been three years and pitchers know he loves chasing low and away sliders and he still hit .280 it's hard to see him getting worse at the plate.

He is 22.

I would consider it, but I wouldn't pull the trigger.

There are a few reasons for this. The first is age. Yes, Upton has more power, more patience, and on the surface more offensive upside, but Starlin Castro was learning Major League hitting at 19. That does count for something. Castro can hit. You can learn patience, you can't learn to become a 7 hitter like Castro. Upton will likely end up with more HR's, but I think that Castro's offensive production will be on par with his.

It's easier to find a good hitting right fielder than it is to find a good hitting shortstop. The average RF hit for a .262/.327/.434 clip and an OPS of .761. The average shortstop hit .257/.310/.378 for a .688 OPS. Think about that, right now the raw undisciplined Starlin Castro is a top five offensive shortstop in all of baseball. Hell next year he could be top two. At his peak last year, when he put it all together, Justin Upton was the second or third best RF in the league. This year he fell to 14th best according to WAR. If he falls into his last three year average WAR of 3.1 he's the 8th-11th best RFer in baseball.

Lastly, defensively Starlin Castro is improving. If people want to stick to errors as the main fielding stat, I'll bring up another flawed stat in Range Factor and point out that he led the league in that last year. And assists, and putouts. Does his fielding % need to go up? Yeah, and it has every year he's been in the league.

I think he ends up being an average to above average defensive player and a superb offensive player. I would look at it, but ultimately I wouldn't pull the trigger.

Bolded parts I agree w/

 

[Rice Cube]

I also agree with you that I wouldn't pull the trigger. I'd probably throw Garza or Samardzija (not both) and one of Vitters or Brett Jackson at the D'Backs instead. They've already tried to pry Andrus and Profar from the Rangers so there's your assumed baseline for any trade talks.

 

[Rice Cube]

The moment the Cubs extended Castro was the moment that trade probability decreased to under 5%. They will still trade him if a super deal comes along, but I think they're committed to him and so am I. I think he can improve.

 

[JosMin]

Ultimately, I think it'd cost the Cubs more to acquire Upton. Looking at the 6 year, $50 million dollar deal he signed in 2010, I think it's safe to assume that amount will probably double when he's a free agent in 2016. The Cubs were smart to lock Castro in and buy out his remaining years of arbitration. At this point, my biggest concern is his defense. He's lead the majors in errors the last two seasons and when you break down his fielding gaffs, it's almost a 50/50 split between fielding and throwing errors, meaning that Castro's issues aren't related to just one shortcoming. Some of the advanced fielding metrics (range factor, runs saved, etc.) may shine a favorable light on Castro, but I think that points more towards the fact that he fielded the most balls in play for any shortstop in the majors last year.

At this point, we know what we're going to get out of Castro -- a poor man's Derek Jeter. A batting average hovering around .300, home run total in the teens, solid base running, and questionable defense. Some have already stated that finding a quality shortstop is much more difficult than finding a productive outfielder. With Soler and Almora waiting in the wings, I think it'd be wise to focus on acquiring starting pitching, a third baseman and a catcher.

 

[waldo7239117]

There's just one hold-up ... the Cubs are on Upton 4 team no trade cause (as of now).

 

[Rice Cube]

There's just one hold-up ... the Cubs are on Upton 4 team no trade cause (as of now).

One of the bajillion MLBTR bullets said that the Cubs are no longer on that list.

Something about the Upton Brothers from FanGraphs, which if it's believed by most GMs may drive down their pricetags a bunch...

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/bj-upton-justin-upton-phenoms-disappointments-now-what/

 

[DewsSox79]

im waiting for the "zomfgzz you cant tradeszz da castrosz" long ass post explaining irrelevant reasons why you cant.

 

[Rice Cube]

im waiting for the "zomfgzz you cant tradeszz da castrosz" long ass post explaining irrelevant reasons why you cant.

The opening post has some good reasons for not trading Castro at least.

I'd actually try to throw Garza or Samardzija at the D'Backs and see if they'll bite.

 

[waldo7239117]

His list does keep changing, but for all we know, the Cubs are still on his list. The Yanks were on his list too at first and now he are hearing they could make a play for him (unlikely). So, yeah it's a toss up.

I had the idea of trading Matt Garza, James Russell, Junior Lake for Justin Upton and a SP in Triple A (Charles Brewer?).

The Cubs sign Liriano and anothe SP (Marcum or McCarthy). Then hopefully the Cubs win the bidding for the Korean guy.

SP:
1) Jeff Samardzija
2) Francison Liriano
3) SP, Marcum, McCarthy?
4) Korean guy
5) Wood

The SP rotation doesn't look too great, but there all average, have MLB expierence and can win games.

Then, maybe Jeff B can thow strikes and turn in to their new Russell.

Just throwing it out there, but yeah I know, it won't happen.

 

[waldo7239117]

The D'backs said they are looking for a 3B, proven MLB starter or a proven lefty reliever. They would want at least 2 in a deal for Upton. They could also take the chance on Lake and see if he comes together. He would be ready for the majors sometime next year and when the D'backs fall out of contention (if they do), they can give him the chance and hope he turns out good.

 

[Mr. Cub]

Zomfgzz you cant tradeszz da Castrosz!!

 

[Rice Cube]

Zomfgzz you cant tradeszz da Castrosz!!

Anyone can be traded. Whether it's wise is a different story

 

[daddies3angels]

My dad said today he heard a rumor about a 3 way deal with CHC, TEX, ARI

CHC would get: Andrus, Olt, + Spec from TOR

TEX would get: Upton

ARI would get: Castro

 

[dabynsky]

Texas doesn't want to part with Andrus or Profar for Upton. I don't see them giving us Andrus and Olt for Upton.

 

[Jntg4]

My dad said today he heard a rumor about a 3 way deal with CHC, TEX, ARI

CHC would get: Andrus, Olt, + Spec from TOR

TEX would get: Upton

ARI would get: Castro

1. Funny that Toronto would be sending a player without receiving anything.
2. It is a baseless rumor, I haven't seen any legitimate source even mention it.
3. Building on 2, probably just speculation, not even meant as serious rumor.

 

[waldo7239117]

I think he met ARI, he had too. That trade doesn't have Ari sending anyone.

He my have had TOR on his mind becuase of the ridiculous trade they made.

This has not legs to it, it was just speculation on what a trade could look like and be fair.

 

[daddies3angels]

Sorry meant TEX sending spec over

I did have TOR on the brain lol


I heard that ARI dont want Andrus cause he about to hit market in 2 yrs. They want a younger SS that is locked up

 

[DewsSox79]

1. Funny that Toronto would be sending a player without receiving anything.
2. It is a baseless rumor, I haven't seen any legitimate source even mention it.
3. Building on 2, probably just speculation, not even meant as serious rumor.

ok CO.