What should the Bears NOT do in this draft?

dabears70

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They should not draft a QB or TE in this draft, maybe a QB in the 6th or 7th...lol.

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What should the Chicago Bears do in the first round of the 2018 NFL Draft? That is the question. More importantly, what mistakes should they avoid?
Ryan Pace and the Chicago Bears have some work to do this weekend, and if all goes according to plan, they will fill a few holes and look to be in great shape heading into training camp this summer. The 2018 NFL Draft presents a lot of intriguing prospects for the Bears, and even more intriguing are the potential scenarios the Bears could find themselves in if certain players fall.

Pace has a lot riding on this draft. He’s hit on some picks in the past, but others, not so much. I’m going to zone-in on this crucial first round at the moment.

I think there are obvious “don’ts” for the Bears in the first round. For example, they should not draft a wide receiver at no. 8 overall — nor should they draft one at all in the first round.

Secondly, of course they are not going to take a position like quarterback or tight end. I hate that I even have to mention that, but somewhere, there is some guy questioning “what if” a top quarterback falls to them at eight. Easy answer to that guy: Trade for one heck of a haul of picks.

Third, Pace is not going to make a severe reach. He knows that he’s made a lot of correct moves this offseason without significantly overpaying as he has in the past. He is known to do what it takes to land “his guy” if he’s convicted to do so. In this year’s draft, however, he’s not going to reach too far to get a guy in the first round. If the temptation is there, I guarantee we see a trade.

These are all fairly obvious. But, there have been plenty of rumblings about what the Bears should and shouldn’t do with their first-round selection, and some of them have me puzzled.

Allow me to address three burning topics — or, mistakes for Pace to avoid — I have noticed in the realm of Bears fans and media over the past month or so.
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The Bears should not draft a defensive back early.
If I am Pace, I know how hard I’ve worked putting this secondary together — especially the likes of Kyle Fuller. Keeping Fuller and Prince Amukamara was a highly underrated pair of moves for the Bears. To go along with them, Adrian Amos and Eddie Jackson are two young safeties locked and loaded as starters.

Even at slot, you have a guy like Bryce Callahan who is money when he’s healthy. Don’t believe me? Go google his name along with “Pro Football Focus” and see what you find. You won’t be disappointed. Here’s a taste.


Pro Football Focus

@PFF
Bryce Callahan's slot coverage statistics in 2017 ��

9:16 PM - Feb 20, 2018

Click the link to see Callahan's PFF stats

Look, I get it. Minkah Fitzpatrick is a straight up baller. He is versatile. He can play multiple positions. He is a playmaker. The kid is going to be a great pro wherever he goes, but it won’t be on the Bears — at least it shouldn’t be. If I feel this strongly about Fitzpatrick, then don’t even ask me about Derwin James, Denzel Ward or Josh Jackson — let alone anybody else in that category.

Pace has much more pressing needs than worrying about the secondary in the first round. His starters are set in stone barring any serious injuries. Not to mention, there is a large amount of defensive backs already on the roster. Bringing back Sherrick McManis and Marcus Cooper to go along with Fuller, Amukamara and Callahan gives the Bears five corners on the roster who likely won’t be going anywhere.

Pace can’t afford to make the mistake of going secondary in the first round. There are several late-round guys who can be developed into roster-worthy players. The first round is not the time or place to go after any position in the secondary — period.
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Don’t even think about Saquon Barkley.
Before you get angry and throw your laptop or iPhone, here is my intent with this point: Pace should avoid any temptation to either draft Saquon Barkley if he falls, or if he is there one spot ahead of them when the Bucs are on the clock.

There are a few scenarios out there that have Barkley slipping, as ludicrous as that sounds. Because there are teams that are getting increasingly antsy in regards to the top five quarterbacks in this draft, I am going to be the first to tell you there is nothing that would surprise me on Thursday night in regards to the quarterback position — nothing.


ABC15 Sports

@abc15sports
The Cardinals have reportedly shown interest in every quarterback projected to be taken in the first round -- but they'll likely have to trade up in order to obtain any of them: http://bit.ly/2F9yqco #NFLDraft

2:16 PM - Apr 21, 2018

Five quarterbacks in the first six picks? It sounds insane — and it is. But, would it surprise me? Absolutely not. The way talk has heated up about teams like the Miami Dolphins, Arizona Cardinals, Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots moving up to select a quarterback gives me no reason to believe Barkley falling is out of the question.

Listen, he’s the best player in this draft. But, Pace can’t afford to do one of two things by drafting Barkley. The first, and move obvious, is the drama he’d create with Jordan Howard. Everybody knows Howard would have to be moved and Matt Nagy has already gone on record saying Howard is the feature back. Howard has also gotten confirmation that he will not be traded.


Larry Mayer

@LarryMayer
Running back Jordan Howard tells media that #Bears told his agent they have no plans to trade him.

10:36 AM - Apr 17, 2018

Second, Pace can’t afford to draft Barkley — literally. He can’t afford to trade up to get him, no matter how tempting it is to come home with the best overall prospect in this class. Last year, the Bears gave up a few picks to snag Mitchell Trubisky. This year, a move like that is simply out of the question.

So, all of you crazy people out there talking about wanting the Bears to trade up to get Barkley because “Howard doesn’t fit the offense,” take a seat.
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Don’t get too cute trying to recoup picks.
The one thing that would upset me more than anything at this point is if Pace decided to trade back too far. What’s too far? I’d say trading outside the top-15 would make me a little uncomfortable, but going into the 20’s would downright anger me.


CanuckBoy Score670
@CanuckBoy670AM
If one of the top QBs drop back to the #Bears at 8, don't completely rule out a move by the Patriots. Based on most "value charts" a fair trade would involve picks #23, #31 and a 4th rounder from NE to move up.

7:08 AM - Apr 18, 2018

If Pace wanted to play that game, and recoup picks, he needs to get on the phone with the Bills first and foremost. Second, if he were to go back that far, he’d miss out on some of the absolute best players in the draft that also happen to fill significant needs.


Linebacker Tremaine Edmunds
Linebacker Roquan Smith
Defensive lineman Vita Vea
Look, if the Bears aren’t going to pick at no. 8, then so be it. I understand the desire to trade back if a certain player like Quenton Nelson isn’t there. But, Pace cannot put himself in the position of missing out on one of these three guys.

The Bears have huge needs at the above positions, and to not come away with one of the top players in the draft when you’re originally slotted at no. 8 is just foolish. Any team with a desire to move up to the eighth pick is going to have to come with a huge push. Pace is going to have to be knocked off his feet in order to be shoved into the back half of the first round.

I don’t see that happening, nor should Pace even entertain the idea. The only scenario I could see this being acceptable is if he is given a future first-round selection as well, but even then it isn’t guaranteed that the future pick would be in the top half of the first round. In the end, I’d leave this idea alone if I’m Pace.
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I don't agree with the 3rd one of not even thinking about drafting S.Barkley if he's there but do agree that we shouldn't even think about trading up for him. Chubb is the only player i even think about trading up for and not even sure i do that.
 

Nelly

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That's a good point about the secondary. If someone revolutionary falls then it's no excuse, but at our pick, we're going to have a lot of good guys there with similar grades and the Bears could use an ILB or an edge rusher a whole lot more than a DB.
 

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That's a good point about the secondary. If someone revolutionary falls then it's no excuse, but at our pick, we're going to have a lot of good guys there with similar grades and the Bears could use an ILB or an edge rusher a whole lot more than a DB.

Yeah i'm a big fan of both M.Fitzpatrick and especially D.James and would love to see either in our secondary but they just don't make enough sense with the much bigger needs we have. With Callahan re-signing that puts Minkah out for me but i can't say i'd be mad to see D.James running around our secondary making plays.
 

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That's a good point about the secondary. If someone revolutionary falls then it's no excuse, but at our pick, we're going to have a lot of good guys there with similar grades and the Bears could use an ILB or an edge rusher a whole lot more than a DB.

I agree.... but wouldn't someone like Fitz get starter minutes in our nickle package? (since teams play so much nickle now) I thought he played that a lot in college? Correct me if I'm wrong.
 

BaBaBlacksheep

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Yeah i'm a big fan of both M.Fitzpatrick and especially D.James and would love to see either in our secondary but they just don't make enough sense with the much bigger needs we have. With Callahan re-signing that puts Minkah out for me but i can't say i'd be mad to see D.James running around our secondary making plays.

Guys like Callahan should never effect what you do in the draft. He's not a bad player.... but not very relevant in the 5-10 year picture.
 

dabears70

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Trade up. Under no circumstances do I want a trade up.

If we had our 3rd rounder and Chubb was sitting there at #7 and maybe #6 then i could get behind it but with already being without our 3rd and what it would cost to move up would hurt us big time in this draft and probably even a pick from 2019's draft.....i really want Chubb though.
 

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Don't reach to just fill a need......go get the guy that could be here a long time and impact the team at a meaningful position, regardless of the perceived need.
 

dabears70

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Don't reach to just fill a need......go get the guy that could be here a long time and impact the team at a meaningful position, regardless of the perceived need.

So draft BPA not BPA by position of need
 

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At this point I think you go LB or Fitz since he can play CB, S, and Nickel LB.
 

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I'd avoid "projects" as they don't tend to work out here, I think. Take guys, especially first round, that can jump right in. Same with 2nd round. Those two guys I expect to be starting on day one.
 

modo

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So draft BPA not BPA by position of need


It isn't as black and white as that. It isn't an either or. All players have rankings and those rankings are based on ability, team system, and area of need. I don't think Pace over-inflates the area of need.
 

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It isn't as black and white as that. It isn't an either or. All players have rankings and those rankings are based on ability, team system, and area of need. I don't think Pace over-inflates the area of need.

You sure about that?

You don't think we needed White, Floyd and Trubisky?
 

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You sure about that?

You don't think we needed White, Floyd and Trubisky?

I think we needed a lot of players....needing a player and over-inflating the value are two different things. If you remember he traded down and got whitehair. And there is no such thing as over-inflating the value of someone you think is a franchise QB.

He drafted Cohen in the 4th when there wasn't a real "need" for another RB. But still needs in other positions.
 

bearmick

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Do not do's:

1) Nelson. It's a deep OG class and quality will be there on day two.

2) Fitz/Ward. The front seven of the defense is paper thin compared to the secondary.

3) WR. Like guard, there's going to be plenty of good players in the mid rounds.
 

JoJoBoxer

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So draft BPA not BPA by position of need
I think that people have the wrong idea of drafting BPA at a position of need.

People seem to believe that you start with your needs and then pick the best player from the group of needs.

That is not the way if should work.

Teams start by rating the players in all aspects including production, off field issues and injury concerns. From there, they create basic draft positions for drafting players. Once the #8 pick comes along (or whatever draft pick), they already have a short list of players that are rated basically the same. From there, they either pick one of those players at a position of need or trade down a bit if they have a large group rated the same and one would still be available after the trade down.

The Bears main current needs are G, OLB and ILB

If Barkley, Edmunds, Davenport and Nelson are available, either Edmunds, Davenport or Nelson should be the pick. They are in the BPA range and fill a need.

An example of picking a player at a need but not in the BPA range would be drafting Landry at 8 because you need an edge rusher. Teams have done their homework and, unless he is rated the same as Edmunds, Davenport, Nelson and Barkley by the team, there are limitations to his game (not being able to set the edge, gets pushed around and a situational rusher) and he should not be drafted at 8.

Now if Pace has ranked Landry or any other player much higher than the media, then he would be worth the higher draft position because he would, in fact, be part of the same ranking of BPA and it would be at a position of need.
 

JoJoBoxer

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You sure about that?

You don't think we needed White, Floyd and Trubisky?
Well, White was one of the top 2 receivers, Floyd was one of the top OLBs and Trubisky was one of the top QBs. So they were at or close to the BPA and at an area of need.
 

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