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This from a Heat fan who sees something that everyone else has been saying for a while.
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I do not like the 2012 Heat so far. I liked the 2011 version, despite their flaws. But, the 2012 version has come back with the nonchalance and entitlement of defending champs even though they didn't win a damn thing. Neither the 2011 nor the 2012 Heat could take a punch, but the 2012 variety will just simply go away as long as you keep hitting them. Or else they may mount a bid to come back furiously at the end and score a late-round knockout, so to speak, but it's almost always going to be too late.
I was watching the game last night on NESN (Boston network) instead of ESPN. The Celtics' broadcasters referred to the Heat D as "hope-you-miss-defense." And that's the kind of defense the Heat play for at least half the game; they just have a great record because they can run over most teams before it matters.
In terms of offense, first, Spoelstra is obviously too weak to apply the reins to James or Wade, but what truly concerns me is that he doesn't seem to want to control Chalmers or Cole either. More than that, the Heat seem to have no offensive plan other than depending on their ability to make individual plays. Two-thirds of the offense is generated by the scoring/passing/defense-drawing ability of James and Wade. However, Wade has had unsettling finishing problems this year, and James can't determine in which game situations when to assert and when to defer and often he defers when he should assert and vice-versa.
Of course, the Heat's size problems and the accompanying rebounding troubles are well known, and that largely goes back to defense, but that 's not the biggest danger sign. I'm not exaggerating when I say good teams have "solved" the Heat. On offense, you can hurt them with a PG that can penetrate, by making extra passes in the interior or off penetration, and you can kill them on the 3 pt line. And defensively, the Bulls and Thunder in the past two weeks have shown two ways to beat them. The Bulls (without Rose) played James/Wade 1-on-1 and gave up 71 pts to them but still won. The Thunder, on the other hand, swarmed both whenever they had the ball and considered each defensive possession successful if someone else other than those two had to make the play (in my opinion, the Thunder's strategy is less risky).
I'm not saying that the Heat definitely won't win the title. If they get transcendent performances from their stars in the right series, they could simply out-talent the rest of the field. But, that's the only way they can win. As a cohesive basketball team, they are fundamentally flawed.
Opinions?