Who would have a greater impact on the Cubs: Max Scherzer or Jon Lester?

[CSF77]

Lester has had a better career WAR avg than Scherzer. Scherzer had last year which got him noticed.

So Lester 31 YO. 6 year deal takes him to 36.
Scherzer 30 YO. 7 year deal takes him to 36.

I would expect the bid to start at 20 mil per year and I would be surprised if either got more than 25 mil per.

So due to age factor I would expect Scherzer to get 1 more year than Lester thus getting a bigger deal.

 

[CSF77]

You target one of the big three and hope you can land one. The other I would say would be to go back after Hammel as he stated he would like to rejoin the Cubs.

That would give them a TOR pitcher (fingers crossed) and solid mid range starter along with Hendricks, and then next year, when even more pitchers become available, you then go after yet another one that may push Hammel and Hendricks back another spot, and by that time, they should be grooming Edwards and Johnson as starters too with the odd men giving them depth and/or going to the bullpen in long relief.

E-Jax and Wood have to be feeling the heat and chances are, their days in Chicago are numbered. :yep:

Hammel would be interesting if he is able to get near his production as a Cub. Something must have clicked between him and Bosio because he fell off the table after moving out.

Now I get the whole he shuld have moved torwards his career production but not that drastic. It feels like he was a product of a system and when that system was removed he fell apart.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I do think Lester will get less than Scherzer mostly because I don't think the Yankees are seriously interested in him despite what's leaked out of there lately. I also think your numbers are way low. I saw some Tweets over the weekend that Scherzer's agent is saying he's looking for 7 years $230 million to start. Granted that's absurd but if it's the Yankees that want him bad enough I don't think 6 years $180 million is out of the question. If that's so I don't think 6 years $155 million is off target for Lester. If anything Shield's poor performance in the playoffs has made these two more valuable, not less. Either way I don't see either one of them signing for less than a $25 million average, the more years the closer you get to that $25 number, the fewer years that annual salary goes up. They'll make Cole Hamels $22.5 million over the next 4 years look like a bargain.

 

[Boobaby1]

I do think Lester will get less than Scherzer mostly because I don't think the Yankees are seriously interested in him despite what's leaked out of there lately. I also think your numbers are way low. I saw some Tweets over the weekend that Scherzer's agent is saying he's looking for 7 years $230 million to start. Granted that's absurd but if it's the Yankees that want him bad enough I don't think 6 years $180 million is out of the question. If that's so I don't think 6 years $155 million is off target for Lester. If anything Shield's poor performance in the playoffs has made these two more valuable, not less. Either way I don't see either one of them signing for less than a $25 million average, the more years the closer you get to that $25 number, the fewer years that annual salary goes up. They'll make Cole Hamels $22.5 million over the next 4 years look like a bargain.

And unfortunately, to get a Cole Hamels, they are going to have to give up the very things they have spent the last three years trying to accomplish, which is develop good talent.

I can guarantee that Philly would want a SS, and I'll bet it would be Russell. Do you start by giving a package headlining with Russell to the Phillies for Hamels, or do you spend good money (that the Cubs have) and try to land a free agent knowing full well that other free agents or potential trades will be there next off-season and you will have a better clue as to what your organization needs?

If a package starts with Russell, basically they traded Shark and Hammel for Cole Hamels, plus lost more in the system. Now if it starts with Baez, that's a different story.

I say you buy a free agent(s) though.

 

[CSF77]

And unfortunately, to get a Cole Hamels, they are going to have to give up the very things they have spent the last three years trying to accomplish, which is develop good talent.

I can guarantee that Philly would want a SS, and I'll bet it would be Russell. Do you start by giving a package headlining with Russell to the Phillies for Hamels. or do you spend good money (htat the Cubs have) and try to land a free agent knowing full well that other free agents or potential trades will be there next off-season and you will have a better clue as to what your organization needs?

If a package starts with Russell, basically they traded Shark and Hammel for Cole Hamels, plus lost more in the system. Now if it starts with Baez, that's a different story.

I say you buy a free agent(s) though.

I would trade Baez and Alcantara and pack their bags if it brought back Hamels. Baez and Alcantara both are incomplete hitters. Baez has a plus power tool and Alcantara has skills but both lack in 1 key thing: Strike zone mastery. Or BB ratio is another way of looking at it.

Lake has the same deal going on. But he is less talented.

IMO it comes down to all were Hendry draft targets and that admin drafted athletes vs disciplined hitters.

Now Almora should be in AA next year and he is getting a bad wrap right now but we have to remember he is still not 100% after his hand surgery. Not to mention Almora is a natural CF vs Alcantara is not.

The team would be better off with more rounded disciplined hitters surounding Soler, Rizzo and Bryant. Add Schwarber who was putting up near a 1:1 BB:SO ratio which is nutz.

Reality is they are stacking depth in the system and can afford to let a few blue chip hitters go for the right return.

 

[2323]

Whichever one isn't going to get hurt.

Does that include cancer?

 

[Boobaby1]

I would trade Baez and Alcantara and pack their bags if it brought back Hamels. Baez and Alcantara both are incomplete hitters. Baez has a plus power tool and Alcantara has skills but both lack in 1 key thing: Strike zone mastery. Or BB ratio is another way of looking at it.

Lake has the same deal going on. But he is less talented.

IMO it comes down to all were Hendry draft targets and that admin drafted athletes vs disciplined hitters.

Now Almora should be in AA next year and he is getting a bad wrap right now but we have to remember he is still not 100% after his hand surgery. Not to mention Almora is a natural CF vs Alcantara is not.

The team would be better off with more rounded disciplined hitters surounding Soler, Rizzo and Bryant. Add Schwarber who was putting up near a 1:1 BB:SO ratio which is nutz.

Reality is they are stacking depth in the system and can afford to let a few blue chip hitters go for the right return.

True about Hamels, and Almora also plays great defense, which at CF is something the Cubs have not had. Almora will pick up his average IMO. He got off to a bad start and never really recovered, and he went through a physical change I believe, which was putting on some weight.

I think things will average out, and he is still very young.

Would love for the Cubs to kick the tires on Panda. I know they are heavily invested in infielders, but throwing Coghlan in LF for the first few weeks, and then putting Bryant out there would make things very interesting to say the least.

It would also give the Cubs 2 LH power hitters with Schwarber in the minors, and 3 RH power hitters with Russell and Almora in the minors. A very good thing to have.

Dreaming I know, but if they were very aggressive early and could land either a Lester or Panda, it might make it pretty enticing for others to follow.

 

[CSF77]

broken hamate bone in his left hand

 

[CSF77]

I posted this elsewhere but I would put Olt at 3B and Valbuena at 2B to start the season. The exact date that Bryant passes the 7 year of control mark I believe is around the 21st of Apr. Around the same time Springer was promoted this year. This is not a super 2 issue it is gaining another year of control on the back end.

Not to mention Baez and Alcantara were inherited vs their blue chip choices.

But a rough line up with out adding any F/A's:

LF: Coghlan
2B Valbuena
1B Rizzo
RF: Soler
SS: Castro
3B: Olt
CF: Szczur
C: Castillo

Now my ideal F/A's to bring in would be Rasmus in CF and Cabrera in LF. Rasmus on a 1 and a option. If Almora is healthy and plows up through AA and ends up dominating AAA he would be set up for opening day 2016. LF there is no long term answer and Cabrera could be a interesting lead off choice.

Another guy to look at is trading Edwin Jackson for CAMERON MAYBIN which kills 2 birds with 1 stone.

 

[Boobaby1]

broken hamate bone in his left hand

Yes, but I believe he gained weight also. Not that it is slowing him down and he is getting fat, it is just that he is growing into his body. Not that he will have great power, but the additional weight and physicality can change a persons swing, and once they feel they are stronger, sometimes they feel they can swing for the fences.

He just needs to get back to his original stroke and the rest will take care of itself. Getting a right handed Jacoby Elsbury with a less foot speed on the base paths is not a bad thing.

If he starts to get things going, this whole organization from top to bottom will be the talk of the town for a while, especially if the get any TOR pitching. :woot:

 

[Boobaby1]

I posted this elsewhere but I would put Olt at 3B and Valbuena at 2B to start the season. The exact date that Bryant passes the 7 year of control mark I believe is around the 21st of Apr. Around the same time Springer was promoted this year. This is not a super 2 issue it is gaining another year of control on the back end.

Not to mention Baez and Alcantara were inherited vs their blue chip choices.

But a rough line up with out adding any F/A's:

LF: Coghlan
2B Valbuena
1B Rizzo
RF: Soler
SS: Castro
3B: Olt
CF: Szczur
C: Castillo

Now my ideal F/A's to bring in would be Rasmus in CF and Cabrera in LF. Rasmus on a 1 and a option. If Almora is healthy and plows up through AA and ends up dominating AAA he would be set up for opening day 2016. LF there is no long term answer and Cabrera could be a interesting lead off choice.

Another guy to look at is trading Edwin Jackson for CAMERON MAYBIN which kills 2 birds with 1 stone.

I wonder if they may surprise and make a run at Sandoval or Headley. If not there, they may go after Markakis by first choice for LF IMO, and then probably someone like Cuddyer on a 2 year deal though he bats right handed. The flexibility of Bryant will allow them to go in a couple different areas, and Bryant will know what he needs to work on in the winter and in the first few weeks of the spring by whom they pick up.

Naturally, if they would happen to land Sandoval or Headley, Bryant will be in left field in Iowa. If they get a Markakis, or Cuddyer, he resumes his third base duties.

Personally, I would groom him for LF and find a 3B man such as Sandoval or Headley. Sandoval with the power, and Headley with the OBP and defense, plus they both switch hit which would add to Alcantara. Coghlan could take over for the first few weeks in LF, and then they could put Coghlan on the bench when Bryant gets the call as Coghlan would see plenty of action as an outfield sub, or if Alcantara struggles, stick him in CF.

This is a very nice problem to have in that a veteran or two and some pitching could make a huge difference in 2015.

 

[brett05]

so Theo lied again w his year in review press conference. :smh:

 

[CSF77]

I wonder if they may surprise and make a run at Sandoval or Headley. If not there, they may go after Markakis by first choice for LF IMO, and then probably someone like Cuddyer on a 2 year deal though he bats right handed. The flexibility of Bryant will allow them to go in a couple different areas, and Bryant will know what he needs to work on in the winter and in the first few weeks of the spring by whom they pick up.

Naturally, if they would happen to land Sandoval or Headley, Bryant will be in left field in Iowa. If they get a Markakis, or Cuddyer, he resumes his third base duties.

Personally, I would groom him for LF and find a 3B man such as Sandoval or Headley. Sandoval with the power, and Headley with the OBP and defense, plus they both switch hit which would add to Alcantara. Coghlan could take over for the first few weeks in LF, and then they could put Coghlan on the bench when Bryant gets the call as Coghlan would see plenty of action as an outfield sub, or if Alcantara struggles, stick him in CF.

This is a very nice problem to have in that a veteran or two and some pitching could make a huge difference in 2015.

Na, this team needs a lead off. Some one with legit OBA skills. They are grooming Alcantara but he lacks that key ability. Almora to this point lacks it.

The top 2 BB guys on the team are Rizzo and Valbuena. Best in the system is Bryant. None are lead off hitters. That is what they need to add in F/A.

 

[Zvbxrpl]

I wonder if they may surprise and make a run at Sandoval or Headley. If not there, they may go after Markakis by first choice for LF IMO, and then probably someone like Cuddyer on a 2 year deal though he bats right handed. The flexibility of Bryant will allow them to go in a couple different areas, and Bryant will know what he needs to work on in the winter and in the first few weeks of the spring by whom they pick up.

Naturally, if they would happen to land Sandoval or Headley, Bryant will be in left field in Iowa. If they get a Markakis, or Cuddyer, he resumes his third base duties.

Personally, I would groom him for LF and find a 3B man such as Sandoval or Headley. Sandoval with the power, and Headley with the OBP and defense, plus they both switch hit which would add to Alcantara. Coghlan could take over for the first few weeks in LF, and then they could put Coghlan on the bench when Bryant gets the call as Coghlan would see plenty of action as an outfield sub, or if Alcantara struggles, stick him in CF.

This is a very nice problem to have in that a veteran or two and some pitching could make a huge difference in 2015.

Headley would be cheaper, he had an atrocious 2014. Good news is, according to MLBTR--Cafardo hears the third baseman will command a five-year, $100MM pact with the Yankees and Dodgers joining Boston in the bidding.

So Headley will likely be available to get snatched up while the suitors line up for Panda.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/pablo-sandoval

I prefer Markakis, I'd rather not wait till next year to purchase an outfielder. Yeah--the list of Justin Upton, Cespedes, Heyward, and Joyce looks nice, but realistically which of these guys makes it all hte way to become available? We see it with pitchers. Good, young talented ones who are in contract years often don't make it to free agency.

We know what Markakis brings, and would lock down LF and the #2 spot in the line up for 5 years easy.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

If the Cubs brass goes out and pays real money for anything other than starting pitching, depth at catcher and a veteran platoon outfielder this offseason I'm going to be pissed. The decision was made in Jed & Theo's first draft to select and develop your position players to exploit the market inequity of quality hitting in the major leagues and to accept the eventuality that they would have to pay for pitching. In 2015 the reality of this is available to them. With their own talent they can field a starting infield of Rizzo, Baez, Castro and Bryant (after mid April) and an outfield consisting of Soler in right and Ancantara in CF. Coghlan isn't their own but he'll probably platoon in left with an acquired veteran until the situation of where Bryant/Russell/Schwarber will eventually play is settled. Yes, there might be a bust out or two but 2015 is where you figure that out and you're not going to do that by positionally blocking guys with high priced players like Pablo Sandoval or the like. If you get Russell Martin for less years and less money than it looks like he's going to get I might be ok with that if they're sure that Schwarber isn't going to catch. If the plan continues the way it supposed to the Cubs are going to have to pay $70 plus million annually on their rotation by 2016 and you're talking about a team that's going to have an annual budget of about $110 million until 2020 when the new TV deal kicks in and, simultaneously, you're going to have to start paying some of your own players market level contracts. Until then you have to enjoy and exploit the luxury of underpaying for positional talent and paying market or above for pitching. Bringing in outside postion players that will be paid at least in part on past performance is a quick way to derail the whole thing.

 

[Boobaby1]

If the Cubs brass goes out and pays real money for anything other than starting pitching, depth at catcher and a veteran platoon outfielder this offseason I'm going to be pissed. The decision was made in Jed & Theo's first draft to select and develop your position players to exploit the market inequity of quality hitting in the major leagues and to accept the eventuality that they would have to pay for pitching. In 2015 the reality of this is available to them. With their own talent they can field a starting infield of Rizzo, Baez, Castro and Bryant (after mid April) and an outfield consisting of Soler in right and Ancantara in CF. Coghlan isn't their own but he'll probably platoon in left with an acquired veteran until the situation of where Bryant/Russell/Schwarber will eventually play is settled. Yes, there might be a bust out or two but 2015 is where you figure that out and you're not going to do that by positionally blocking guys with high priced players like Pablo Sandoval or the like. If you get Russell Martin for less years and less money than it looks like he's going to get I might be ok with that if they're sure that Schwarber isn't going to catch. If the plan continues the way it supposed to the Cubs are going to have to pay $70 plus million annually on their rotation by 2016 and you're talking about a team that's going to have an annual budget of about $110 million until 2020 when the new TV deal kicks in and, simultaneously, you're going to have to start paying some of your own players market level contracts. Until then you have to enjoy and exploit the luxury of underpaying for positional talent and paying market or above for pitching. Bringing in outside postion players that will be paid at least in part on past performance is a quick way to derail the whole thing.

Not sure how a Sandoval or Headley would ruin a team that has two team friendly contracts, and a bunch of league minimum players? They can afford to add Sandoval or Headley (20 mil), Hammel type (8 mil), Lester type (25 mil), a bullpen lefty (3 mil) and a back up catcher (2.5 mil) for under 60 million which would put the Cubs in the 115 million payroll range even with arbitration cases added in.

If your only big contracts are E-Jax for 2 more years, 3B and a TOR pitcher, that is easily affordable for the Cubs, and it eases the growing pains on the kids when you have Rizzo, Castro and a solid veteran leading the way with the lumber.

Nothing wrong with Markakis or Headley in the 2-hole if you ask me.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I'm not opposed to adding players from the outside in the future I just don't think it's time yet. No one ever expected this club to compete in 2015 and it looks like, with teh addition of some TOR pitching, that it can without the outside help. Personally I want to see what they have in house before going outside. I also don't see them going much over $100 million for the next few years.

 

[Boobaby1]

I'm not opposed to adding players from the outside in the future I just don't think it's time yet. No one ever expected this club to compete in 2015 and it looks like, with teh addition of some TOR pitching, that it can without the outside help. Personally I want to see what they have in house before going outside. I also don't see them going much over $100 million for the next few years.

Well if they don't go out this year and get help, they are screwed. It is hard to gauge a manager by putting the same team out there and expecting them to increase performances all the way around. Even if they did, they would probably be a .500 team. It also doesn't bode well to current players if you don't show them the willingness and desire to win by giving them some help.

Theo has stated that he would like to add impact talent. Now I am no rocket scientist, but "impact talent" to me does not mean Nick Punto. Even if they get Jon Lester, they basically are just the same team as last year even if you factor in that he is equivalent to Shark and Hammel.

The Cubs need some players that have proven to put up some numbers. They can assess the current crop if young players without suffering all the way around.

Having Castro, Rizzo, Castillo, and another producer means that 1/2 of your line-up has little to no question marks. Ideally, the Cubs next year need to have 3/4ths of their line-up settled in (add Soler and Bryant) with possibly CF and 2B still up in the air.

Of course, with Russell and Almora looming, the Cubs could have a good secondary option for those two positions as well.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

When they talk impact talent I'm taking that to mean pitching. If you add two TOR pitchers, whether it's both this offseason or over the next year, that's going to be quite the staff and certainly better than they had when Samardzija and Hammell were in town. Don't forget that Arrieta was not pitching for most of that time and Hendricks wasn't up yet. There was almost no drop off from Samardzija and Hammell in the first half to Arietta and Hendricks in the second. The other thing is that after April the team was a .500 ballclub and that's with both Rizzo and Castro missing significant time and the kids only being up for a brief period. You also have to look at what you might get from Baez. I realize that there are two schools of though on him and given the day I see both but the evidence does point to him making adjustments like he did at every other level and improving. Remember they completely left him alone and made no changes to his swing during his time with the big club instead preferring to get plenty on tape and let him work on it in the offseason. No one believes a 41% K rate is ok but if he got it to 30% you're talking an impact player who will probably hit 25 HR in his first full year. If he starts to go south I would expect Addison Russell to come up and take that spot. In late April you're going to get Kris Bryant up who almost everybody believes will make an impact right away with his bat. One can also assume that Alcantara will improve although how much is anyone's guess. Then you have Rizzo who was 5.1 WAR player in 2014 and is getting better and Castro who had a bounceback year at 2.1 WAR but still didn't approach his best year as a 3.4 WAR player. I expect improvement from both especially with some strong bats around them in the lineup. I do think they need to sign a veteran outfielder to platoon with Coghlan and provide some leadership and there are plenty of those guys out there to be had. Personally I think Torii Hunter would be a great fit but again not the only one. Listen no one can tell the future but if one TOR arm is added I think expecting a 10 game improvement to 83 wins is reasonable, could be a little better. If you add two I think 86-88 is not out of the question.

As far as gauging the manager goes I don't think that's part of the equation. Ricky Renteria was hired to prevent further depreciation of their assets in Castro and Rizzo and to provid an evironment for them to rebound. He accomplished that. Hopefully he does the same for all the other kids coming but make no mistake it's not a coincidence that he was signed to a two year deal which coincides with the possible availability of both Joe Maddon and Terry Francona. Now with Andrew Friedman in LA I fully expect Maddon to end up as Dodgers skipper in 2016 but with Friedman retaining Don Mattingly for 2015 that's not a lock. If the Dodgers were to, say, win the 2015 World Series it would be very unlikely that Mattingly gets dumped. Either way I've expected one of those guys to be the Manager in Wrigley in 2016 since the day Renteria was hired and that expectation hasn't changed. If the Cubs do very well in 2015 I would expect a very soft exit for Renteria possible special assistant to the GM or something of that nature. as a reward for a job well done. I don't see any scenario where he's the manager when the Cubs enter their true competition window which I believe to be in 2016.

 

[CSF77]

Well if they don't go out this year and get help, they are screwed. It is hard to gauge a manager by putting the same team out there and expecting them to increase performances all the way around. Even if they did, they would probably be a .500 team. It also doesn't bode well to current players if you don't show them the willingness and desire to win by giving them some help.

Theo has stated that he would like to add impact talent. Now I am no rocket scientist, but "impact talent" to me does not mean Nick Punto. Even if they get Jon Lester, they basically are just the same team as last year even if you factor in that he is equivalent to Shark and Hammel.

The Cubs need some players that have proven to put up some numbers. They can assess the current crop if young players without suffering all the way around.

Having Castro, Rizzo, Castillo, and another producer means that 1/2 of your line-up has little to no question marks. Ideally, the Cubs next year need to have 3/4ths of their line-up settled in (add Soler and Bryant) with possibly CF and 2B still up in the air.

Of course, with Russell and Almora looming, the Cubs could have a good secondary option for those two positions as well.

What they need is Castro healthy.

On the current team Rizzo provided 40.9 wRAA with Chris Coghlan #2 at 14.2. Starlin Castro #3 at 13.5.

In 95 PA's Jorge provided 5.6 wRAA.

Weighted Runs Above Average (wRAA) measures the number of offensive runs a player contributes to their team compared to the average player.

It is based off of wOBA. wRAA = ((wOBA – league wOBA) / wOBA scale) × PA

So even with wRAA it ties heavy into wOBA.

wOBA:
Rizzo: .397
Soler: .386
Coghlan: .353
Valbuena: .342
Castro: .341
Castillo: .306
------------------------
Mendoza line

Sweeney: .285
Kalish: .282
Szczur: .280
Valaika: .276
Alcantara: .275
Olt: .270
Watkins: .264
Lake: .264
Baez: .248
Baker: .230


That is a major problem. Coghlan and Valbuena have been 2 of the stronger players on this squad.

This is another reason why I would trade Baez and Alcantara in a heartbeat for Hamels. wOBA shows they are a burden to the team. Sure there is a learning curve going on but I question their make up. Soler has a learning curve but he has a stronger skill set that promotes strong wOBA.

If we are looking at 2 role models 1 would be Rizzo. Strong OBA skills. The 2nd is Castro strong ball contact skills. Looking at wOBA and wRAA it proves that Rizzo provides more run generation to the team. Soler, Bryant, Vogelbach and Schwarber all have these tools in common.

So what does this mean?

My opinion is they need to sell Baez and Alcantara early while they are still unknown factors. IMO they are 50/50 in busting right now.

With them pushing Schwarber into a catcher role it leaves LF wide open.

I would trade Jackson to the Pads for Maybin. Maybin put up a .275 wOBA last year but he covers CF which keeps Coghlan's stronger wOBA in the line up at LF.

Now a line up + wOBA

LF: Coghlan: .353
2B: Valbuena: .342
1B: Rizzo: .397
RF: Soler: .386
SS: Castro: .341
C: Castillo: .306
3B: Olt: .270
CF: Maybin: .276

Then adding Bryant in mid April changes it to:
Coghlan
Valbuena
Rizzo
Bryant
Soler
Castro
Maybin
Castillo

This option opens up 2B for either Castro or Russell while putting Russell's bat hitting ahead of Rizzo later year.

Everything said and done it comes down to a lead off long term for the Cubs. I have little faith in Baez and Alcantara's basic tool sets to over come their lacking as hitters.