Who would have a greater impact on the Cubs: Max Scherzer or Jon Lester?

[SilenceS]

What they need is Castro healthy.

On the current team Rizzo provided 40.9 wRAA with Chris Coghlan #2 at 14.2. Starlin Castro #3 at 13.5.

In 95 PA's Jorge provided 5.6 wRAA.

Weighted Runs Above Average (wRAA) measures the number of offensive runs a player contributes to their team compared to the average player.

It is based off of wOBA. wRAA = ((wOBA – league wOBA) / wOBA scale) × PA

So even with wRAA it ties heavy into wOBA.

wOBA:
Rizzo: .397
Soler: .386
Coghlan: .353
Valbuena: .342
Castro: .341
Castillo: .306
------------------------
Mendoza line

Sweeney: .285
Kalish: .282
Szczur: .280
Valaika: .276
Alcantara: .275
Olt: .270
Watkins: .264
Lake: .264
Baez: .248
Baker: .230


That is a major problem. Coghlan and Valbuena have been 2 of the stronger players on this squad.

This is another reason why I would trade Baez and Alcantara in a heartbeat for Hamels. wOBA shows they are a burden to the team. Sure there is a learning curve going on but I question their make up. Soler has a learning curve but he has a stronger skill set that promotes strong wOBA.

If we are looking at 2 role models 1 would be Rizzo. Strong OBA skills. The 2nd is Castro strong ball contact skills. Looking at wOBA and wRAA it proves that Rizzo provides more run generation to the team. Soler, Bryant, Vogelbach and Schwarber all have these tools in common.

So what does this mean?

My opinion is they need to sell Baez and Alcantara early while they are still unknown factors. IMO they are 50/50 in busting right now.

With them pushing Schwarber into a catcher role it leaves LF wide open.

I would trade Jackson to the Pads for Maybin. Maybin put up a .275 wOBA last year but he covers CF which keeps Coghlan's stronger wOBA in the line up at LF.

Now a line up + wOBA

LF: Coghlan: .353
2B: Valbuena: .342
1B: Rizzo: .397
RF: Soler: .386
SS: Castro: .341
C: Castillo: .306
3B: Olt: .270
CF: Maybin: .276

Then adding Bryant in mid April changes it to:
Coghlan
Valbuena
Rizzo
Bryant
Soler
Castro
Maybin
Castillo

This option opens up 2B for either Castro or Russell while putting Russell's bat hitting ahead of Rizzo later year.

Everything said and done it comes down to a lead off long term for the Cubs. I have little faith in Baez and Alcantara's basic tool sets to over come their lacking as hitters.

What? Im not saying the Cubs dont trade for Hamels but this is completely wrong. Baez wOBA in the minors was tremendous. These are 22 and 21 year old kids. People need to pump the brakes. When did baseball become football? Im pretty sure Baez was the youngest player in the majors last year. He barely had a quarter of a season of at bats. Alcantara is 22 and was learning a whole new position while trying to hit in the majors. People need to stop acting like Mike Trout is going to walk through the door. Also, question their make up? What are you saying? Legit question.

 

[brett05]

Baez I believe was second or third youngest

 

[SilenceS]

Baez I believe was second or third youngest

Yea, the Mets Herrera was called up at 20 on August 29th as an injury replacement. I dont know if there was another guy. But, my point still stands.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

That's the thing, these are kids. How many of the folks making these arguments would have given up on Rizzo after his disastrous debut in San Diego. The bottom line is that the major leagues stats for Baez and Alcantara are from too small a sample size to make any sense out of them yet. Particularly in the case of Baez who was purosefully given zero batting instruction in the major leagues to see if his own adjustment skills which suited him well n the minors would translate to the majors. They did not, at least not fast enough, so now he's going be worked with extensively going into spring training. Bottom line is that you don't give up on 21 and 22 year olds unless a) you're bowled over in a deal or b) you have already made a internal judgment based on your farm staff and scouting. The Cubs need pitching, as far as positionally they can put together an evolving lineup with options going forward. Russell is close, Schwarber is probably ready as far his bat goes and the minute they decide he's not a catcher or they pick up a catcher they like better he'll be up with the big club. If he is a catcher he's worth waiting for. The need for pitching is real and immediate for the team to take another leap forward.

 

[CSF77]

What? Im not saying the Cubs dont trade for Hamels but this is completely wrong. Baez wOBA in the minors was tremendous. These are 22 and 21 year old kids. People need to pump the brakes. When did baseball become football? Im pretty sure Baez was the youngest player in the majors last year. He barely had a quarter of a season of at bats. Alcantara is 22 and was learning a whole new position while trying to hit in the majors. People need to stop acting like Mike Trout is going to walk through the door. Also, question their make up? What are you saying? Legit question.

Minor league numbers mean little because the pitching is going through a learning curve also. If anything his AAA numbers were telling as he was going against pitching that has been to the majors. And we saw how that year went.

I get it you are pro-Baez. I feel he is a undisciplined power hitter.

He keeps getting compaired to Sheff but sheff had strong OBA skills to go along with his bat speed.

My problem with Baez is pretty simple. He is not a disciplined hitter.

I believe you are in love with his HR power. You take that away and what is he? Strike out prone? Yes. Good range D but error prone.

You look at Russell you see range and low errors. Less power but a over all better hitter. IE better quality AB's.

Baez's problem is he was trying to be selective early in the counts and at strike 2 he was going to swing regardless where the ball was going.

IMO he doesn't read the ball coming out of the pitchers hand well enough and a 40%+ SO ratio proves this to be fact.

So don't pull out AA facts that blooned his value up. Look at his AAA struggles and that is also telling. ..

Or factor in he was facing pitchers that were not polished products.

 

[CSF77]

Just compare Soler's results this year to either Alcantara or Baez. Just their SO ratios would be enough to tell the tale. But also consider that both Alcantara and Baez have a huge amount of development and adjustment to go though just to get up to major league standards in wOBA. Which is .300. Soler put up elite wOBA in less than 100 PA's. Not to mention in his AB's he did not look over matched and his wOBA was a result of his approach at the plate.

Baez on the other hand looked like a mess out there. Swing at pitches way out of the zone. Letting hitable pitches go by early in the count. Even Theo or Jed talked about this with him ans they expected him to stink as he did.

But the problem is he is at 40% SO now and his minor league was 30%. So 1/3 of his AB's should end up in a SO. 8% was his BB rate. so 38% of his ab's will end up in 1 of 2 results. That leaves 62% for the ball to go in play. In 700 PA's that translates into 210 SO's and 56 BB. Even if he gets lucky and hits 30 HR...lol right ...4.3% of his AB's end up in a HR result.

So lets look here:
30% SO
8% BB
4% HR

So is the value of a HR that great?

I would rather have Schwarber's 18% SO, 16% BB.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Gotcha you're not sold on Baez. I'm not either but that's elite power you're talking about with plus defensive skills. I've never heard anyone think that he would be better than say a 28% K rate at his best. People also expect him as he gets into his prime to hit 40 HR/year consistently. What if he can get to a .330 OBP with a .570 SLG which is certainly possible, are you saying you wouldn't take a .900 OPS with 40 HR's? Because that's his ceiling. I understand that his floor is bust out, I get that but unless the Cubs know that for sure it's not time to pull the plug unless you get bowled over with talent in a trade proposal and pitching has to be part of that.

 

[SilenceS]

He had over a .350 oba against AAA pitching. His minors numbers tell us more then a 200 bat sample at the major leagues at 21.


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[SilenceS]

Let me try to explain this, people are all over him cause he struggled like he did in every stop. My problem is people think he can not adjust for no reason other then a 200 bat sample. With his horrid start in aaa. He batted over .300. Cut his k rate to around 24 percent and walked at over 9% clip from
Middle may until he was called up. Stop looking at overall stat line because it tell only some of the story. The Cubs called him up for a reason. I find it funny that people don't take his minor numbers but believe schwaber is a can't miss bat because he dominated a league that he should have dominated. It doesn't make sense. It's what have you done for me the past month mentality and in baseball you can't have that mentality. People have to progress it's why it's the majors. To act like baez is a finished product is borderline crazy. He hasn't even shown what he can do yet. I will say it again. People need to stop expecting a mike trout to come up cause the odds are it's not happeninh


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[CSF77]

I never said he was a finished product but his floor is bust and ceiling is superstar. My problem with him is he is very raw and immature as a hitter to even be in the majors.

Come on now man. 46% SO's as a rookie says not ready. That is the shit Lake was pulling this year. He is a bust out.

The difference between the 2 is draft investment and potential.

Bret Jackson another high SO type. Very talented tool box...aheeemmm.... Olt...ya another top 25 prospect...ya SO over came his good points.

Until Baez is putting up some numbers against major league pitching vs non major league pitching all he is right now is a wind generator with his bat.

 

[CSF77]

anyways the main point is I would rather trade him and Alcantara for Hamels.

Outside of my personal view the team needs a TOP OF THE ROTATION more than another bat.

Strange to say for a run starved team huna. But if you look at what the team did last year the biggest reason why the team lacked runs was having Bonifacio leading off. He was running a OBA around .300 while getting picked of what 10 plus times. Ya that will kill run production.

What started to fix it was putting Coghland in as the lead off. He was getting on base around 34% of the time. He was not sealing bases which is giving up outs.

Now the problem became putting Alcantara in at lead off and his sub .300 OBA then Baez in his sub .300 OBA. And we wonder why Rizzo did not get 100 RBI's this year?

So just putting Coghlan and Valbuena hitting 1/2 ahead of Rizzo and Soler should fix some issues going on with RBI production. Castro proved to be a strong hitter in RBI situations. And that means he had a strong OBA type ahead of him to knock in. But having both Rizzo and Soler ahead of him should push up his RBI production even more. Add in Bryant and his 14% BB rates...ya sure he will clear his share but with a BB rate like that it gives plenty of RBI shots for Castro.

Over all this team should be better even with out Baez adding in. How many RH power hitters do they need even? 3? Seems over kill. They need guys that can get on base more. IE Russell in the MI and an long term LF.

 

[SilenceS]

I never said he was a finished product but his floor is bust and ceiling is superstar. My problem with him is he is very raw and immature as a hitter to even be in the majors.

Come on now man. 46% SO's as a rookie says not ready. That is the shit Lake was pulling this year. He is a bust out.

The difference between the 2 is draft investment and potential.

Bret Jackson another high SO type. Very talented tool box...aheeemmm.... Olt...ya another top 25 prospect...ya SO over came his good points.

Until Baez is putting up some numbers against major league pitching vs non major league pitching all he is right now is a wind generator with his bat.

That's fine but do you agree that 200 at bats with his hit tool says very little. He comes out next year and hits all this random talk will go away. He is 21. He came up to learn


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[SilenceS]

Also, the difference between baez and lake is night and day in hitting. Lake has. Rey little of the tools Baez has. I wouldn't make that comparison


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[CSF77]

Also, the difference between baez and lake is night and day in hitting. Lake has. Rey little of the tools Baez has. I wouldn't make that comparison


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Compare was his SO's.

Lake has light tower power as some of his blasts have been more than impressive. His failing has been 8 SO's for every BB at the major league level.

He falls under the Castro type. Lower BB% but he lacks Castro's hitting ability.

Again if Baez can get his BB% up to 12% it would offset his SO% or lower it at least.

You have to figue most players are going to put the ball into play 60% of the time. It is the 40% that matters here. Would you rather have it be 32% SO/8% BB or 25% SO and 15% BB. The latter is what Bryant projects. Schwarber has had 19% SO and 16% BB. Which are elite levels in the minors. That ball recognition comes from being a catcher and adds to his catching ability. Cubs.com did a piece about him and a good read. http://m.cubs.mlb.com/news/article/...-catching-prospect-kyle-schwarber-behind-dish

 

[SilenceS]

I believe baez will walk more then people think. He has done it for stretches


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[CSF77]

I believe baez will walk more then people think. He has done it for stretches


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229 PA;
15 BB; 6.5%
95 SO; 41.4%
9 HR; 3.9%
6 2B; 2.6%

BABIP: .248

2015 projections on Steamer:
6% BB, 29.3% SO, .226 BA .307 wOBA. 29 HR.

So they are giving him his due as a power hitter but with a .226 BA and near 30% SO% and a 6% BB rate. I believe that is a fair prediction for his rookie year.

 

[brett05]

229 PA;
15 BB; 6.5%
95 SO; 41.4%
9 HR; 3.9%
6 2B; 2.6%

BABIP: .248

2015 projections on Steamer:
6% BB, 29.3% SO, .226 BA .307 wOBA. 29 HR.

So they are giving him his due as a power hitter but with a .226 BA and near 30% SO% and a 6% BB rate. I believe that is a fair prediction for his rookie year.

Side note

Is he still rookie eligible?

 

[SilenceS]

Side note

Is he still rookie eligible?

I don't think so


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[SilenceS]

Side note

Is he still rookie eligible?

Its a 130 at bats so he will not be.

 

[CSF77]

interesting. Makes me think they are going to use him as trade bait. Does that give them 6 or 5 years of control now that they used up his rookie year?