Wild Guess - Stephen Denmark at safety

[iueyedoc]

This Bears writer has a sober evaluation of Denmark. He describes Denmark being on the practice squad as a "hold your breath situation"

https://beargoggleson.com/2019/05/28/chicago-bears-rookie-expectations-stephen-denmark/

Dude, he was picked 16 spots before Mr. Irrelevant with his measurables. He is nothing more at this point. And citing Fansided, BR, etc is like sourcing your step uncle Leon. I'm starting to understand the disliking.

 

[pinkfloydster]

Dude, he was picked 16 spots before Mr. Irrelevant with his measurables. He is nothing more at this point. And citing Fansided, BR, etc is like sourcing your step uncle Leon. I'm starting to understand the disliking.

What are the odds that Denmark (or any later stage player trying to make a roster spot in the NFL) will develop into a key contributor? Very Very Low. And yet it still happens. Take, for example, the fate of Darren Waller...practice squad player November 2018 for the Baltimore Ravens. He's now a projected starter for the Raiders and drawing rave reviews from the head coach. It happens.

So, you don't want me to reference seemingly good sportswriter due to bias claims. Let's be objective. Here's the RAS score (relative athletic score) of all the current Bears who will be attending camp (@MathBomb on Twitter - his or her work).

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12qciTpOMkllF_3A99liM4TnAlMvUjfvQRaLLJ39Jgh8/edit#gid=0

Denmark is 8th from the top. Taking all players to enter the 2019 draft, he's around 85. So, if NFL General Managers drafted purely based on RAS score (which they do not), Denmark would be a mid 3rd pick. Now, I know what you are going to say....RAS score, fake news, vaccines cause autism, "I am gonna dislike you" BS. But here's one additional fact, Urlacher had a perfect RAS at 10 and would have predicted his HOF play.

An interesting side note, the Packers, based purely on RAS score are much more athletic than the Bears. I happen to think that this is just a reflection of managerial styles. The Bears are willing to take a chance on a player that has flaws, like Tarik Cohen, and that causes a sharp drop in RAS score.

 

[gallagher]

What are the odds that Denmark (or any later stage player trying to make a roster spot in the NFL) will develop into a key contributor? Very Very Low. And yet it still happens. Take, for example, the fate of Darren Waller...practice squad player November 2018 for the Baltimore Ravens. He's now a projected starter for the Raiders and drawing rave reviews from the head coach. It happens.

So, you don't want me to reference seemingly good sportswriter due to bias claims. Let's be objective. Here's the RAS score (relative athletic score) of all the current Bears who will be attending camp (@MathBomb on Twitter - his or her work).

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12qciTpOMkllF_3A99liM4TnAlMvUjfvQRaLLJ39Jgh8/edit#gid=0

Denmark is 8th from the top. Taking all players to enter the 2019 draft, he's around 85. So, if NFL General Managers drafted purely based on RAS score (which they do not), Denmark would be a mid 3rd pick. Now, I know what you are going to say....RAS score, fake news, vaccines cause autism, "I am gonna dislike you" BS. But here's one additional fact, Urlacher had a perfect RAS at 10 and would have predicted his HOF play.

An interesting side note, the Packers, based purely on RAS score are much more athletic than the Bears. I happen to think that this is just a reflection of managerial styles. The Bears are willing to take a chance on a player that has flaws, like Tarik Cohen, and that causes a sharp drop in RAS score.

How did Brandon Hardin rate? He was a third rounder drafted on athleticism alone.

 

[iueyedoc]

What's your obsession with RAS. It is about as useless as tits on a bull. What I would consider the top 10 Bears are ranked 10,21,22,28,30,44,65,72,75,80. Eddie Jackson at 80 is the third to last athletic Bear? Really? Basically the top ten Bears players are spread fairly evenly top to bottom on the list with the mean ranking 44 out of 82.

Could you even find a less insightful and meaningful statistic?

 

[pinkfloydster]

What's your obsession with RAS. It is about as useless as tits on a bull. What I would consider the top 10 Bears are ranked 10,21,22,28,30,44,65,72,75,80. Eddie Jackson at 80 is the third to last athletic Bear? Really? Basically the top ten Bears players are spread fairly evenly top to bottom on the list with the mean ranking 44 out of 82.

Could you even find a less insightful and meaningful statistic?

Uhhh...Eddie Jackson didn't have statistics - he's at the bottom because he doesn't have a score. And RAS score predicts a lot. Again, it penalizes players who have flaws. Akiem Hicks has a high 40 time so his RAS score takes a hit. Facts are facts. On the other hand, RAS score would have predicted Charles Leno outperforming his draft spot.

 

[Bearly]

Where was Urlacher picked? We almost all love the Denmark pick. We're not disliking him. Just being real. You use late picks for athletes that you think have a shot of turning into players. Teams fill their 53 with players. He isn't one until he shows something in the bigs.

A punter had this year's top RAS score. Kellen Davis had a 9.18 RAS. It neither gets you drafted high nor makes you a good football player. Having a good RAS and being a enough of a player to get drafted high is a nice thing but RAS doesn't say much about football and often has you waste years on a guy like Davis. Cordarrelle Patterson has a mid 7 RAS score. He's bounced around a bit due to route running and hands but athletically, he's obviously special vs other great athletes. How does that correlate? I used those 2 because both are Bears and they popped into my head as athletically gifted as high and low choices. I didn't look up any others.

 

[Bearly]

This Bears writer has a sober evaluation of Denmark. He describes Denmark being on the practice squad as a "hold your breath situation"

https://beargoggleson.com/2019/05/28/chicago-bears-rookie-expectations-stephen-denmark/

Interesting take on an article that basically said he's likely on out PS, just like I did.

Yes, other teams can claim Denmark if he is released. However, if a team claims him they have to keep him on their active roster for three weeks. All 32 teams may love to have Denmark on their practice squad. However, the Bears may have a hard time justifying keeping him active with how raw he is, and the other 31 teams will have the same issue. Denmark could be an injury away from playing in the first couple of weeks of your season if you claim him.

However, it is tough to justify keeping Denmark over names such as Kyle Fuller, Prince Amukamara, Buster Skrine, Duke Shelley, and Kevin Toliver. A year on the practice squad would do Denmark well and enough other teams will agree that he will go through with that year in Chicago.

It's basically my post that you objected to. That may all change if he shows up in the pre but without good film on him, he won't get claimed, like any other 7th round rookie.

 

[pinkfloydster]

Interesting take on an article that basically said he's likely on out PS, just like I did.

Yes, other teams can claim Denmark if he is released. However, if a team claims him they have to keep him on their active roster for three weeks. All 32 teams may love to have Denmark on their practice squad. However, the Bears may have a hard time justifying keeping him active with how raw he is, and the other 31 teams will have the same issue. Denmark could be an injury away from playing in the first couple of weeks of your season if you claim him.

However, it is tough to justify keeping Denmark over names such as Kyle Fuller, Prince Amukamara, Buster Skrine, Duke Shelley, and Kevin Toliver. A year on the practice squad would do Denmark well and enough other teams will agree that he will go through with that year in Chicago.

It's basically my post that you objected to. That may all change if he shows up in the pre but without good film on him, he won't get claimed, like any other 7th round rookie.

I think we are saying the same thing. Just nuanced.

 

[iueyedoc]

Uhhh...Eddie Jackson didn't have statistics - he's at the bottom because he doesn't have a score. And RAS score predicts a lot. Again, it penalizes players who have flaws. Akiem Hicks has a high 40 time so his RAS score takes a hit. Facts are facts. On the other hand, RAS score would have predicted Charles Leno outperforming his draft spot.

So RAS scores are accurate if you ignore portions of the RAS score(Hicks) and RAS score can predict players outperforming their draft spot, if you ignore all the times it doesn't predict it happening( Leno ). I really like you. You fill a void in CCS since Bearsfan51 and Gator Mike are gone.

 

[Bearly]

Shea McClellin 8.4, Lance Briggs 7.0. Dion Sims 7.8

Looking further, Matt Ryan 5.77, Tom Brady, 2.74,

 

[Bearly]

I think we are saying the same thing. Just nuanced.

You objected to my post that he would not be claimed unless he showed something in the pre and that article say exactly the same thing.

 

[pinkfloydster]

So RAS scores are accurate if you ignore portions of the RAS score(Hicks) and RAS score can predict players outperforming their draft spot, if you ignore all the times it doesn't predict it happening( Leno ). I really like you. You fill a void in CCS since Bearsfan51 and Gator Mike are gone.

I dunno, I don't do this for a living. But I would think that it is important for a scout to understand why a RAS score is low rather than ignore it altogether...tornado alarms go off all the time, but no tornado ever hits, so just ignore it is your logic. Just because there are big words and confusing numbers doesn't mean you should ignore it and insult people to make it all go away.

 

[Bearly]

But you are making it the focal point, not just a minor part of an equation. Scouts don't need RAS scores, they already have all the measurables and balance what specs they think are important for themselves. Denmark barely got drafted and only so due to his measurables with or without his ras score.

 

[pinkfloydster]

You objected to my post that he would not be claimed unless he showed something in the pre and that article say exactly the same thing.

Objected is a strong word...questioned the wisdom of trying to "stash" him by not giving him reps, etc...just pointing out that the Bears are under the microscope this year and so that may not work. Yea, Ben Braunecker, it worked...Denmark, you are pushing it.

 

[pinkfloydster]

But you are making it the focal point, not just a minor part of an equation. Scouts don't need RAS scores, they already have all the measurables and balance what specs they think are important for themselves. Denmark barely got drafted due to his measurables with or without his ras score.

Agreed...Denmark has practically no tape. That's why he's fun to debate!

 

[iueyedoc]

I dunno, I don't do this for a living. But I would think that it is important for a scout to understand why a RAS score is low rather than ignore it altogether...tornado alarms go off all the time, but no tornado ever hits, so just ignore it is your logic. Just because there are big words and confusing numbers doesn't mean you should ignore it and insult people to make it all go away.

Just looking at OT's since you brought up Leno, 14 of the top 20 OT alltime RAS scores were nobodies to complete busts in the NFL.Please explain how it predicts anything?

 

[pinkfloydster]

Shea McClellin 8.4, Lance Briggs 7.0. Dion Sims 7.8

Looking further, Matt Ryan 5.77, Tom Brady, 2.74,

i don't think it is fair to just put up a RAS score and say, "see it doesn't correlate it." It's more important to ask why is Tom Brady elite depsite his RAS. Why did McClellin suck despite his high RAS?

 

[Aquineas]

I think Charles Tillman should be moved to safety. I think Kyle Long should be moved to tackle. Devin Hester should be a wide receiver.

Actually the Kyle Long one isnt that wild. He came in as a tackle.

 

[pinkfloydster]

Just looking at OT's since you brought up Leno, 14 of the top 20 OT alltime RAS scores were nobodies to complete busts in the NFL.Please explain how it predicts anything?

So, 30% were contributors...that's a pretty good predictor!

 

[Bearly]