Wild Guess - Stephen Denmark at safety

[pinkfloydster]

And to that I reply Airese Currie had a RAS of 5 and so would have predicted his outcome...I am kidding BTW

 

[iueyedoc]

So, 30% were contributors...that's a pretty good predictor!

At the next CCS meet up I would like to play some high stakes poker with you. You down?

 

[pinkfloydster]

At the next CCS meet up I would like to play some high stakes poker with you. You down?

Statistics and probability is a world I am comfortable with. Poker is about reading emotions. I would get slaughtered. My game is roulette and playing red vs black...it's the closest thing to 50/50 odds I can get to without exherting a lot of brain energy.

 

[Bearly]

i don't think it is fair to just put up a RAS score and say, "see it doesn't correlate it." It's more important to ask why is Tom Brady elite depsite his RAS. Why did McClellin suck despite his high RAS?

Because it's a poor indicator?

 

[iueyedoc]

Statistics and probability is a world I am comfortable with.

Really?

 

[iueyedoc]

Because it's a poor indicator?

Seriously?
It is an excellent indicator if you just ignore when it isn't.

 

[pinkfloydster]

Really?

Absolutely, the Bears have actually done an amazing job at finding key contributors in low odds area. They do it by sheer numbers. They get 30 players that have a 10% chance of being contributors...they unearth 3 at the end of the day. But those 3 are what separates them from bad teams. It's especially important in light of their style to give up draft picks to get "their guy" One could argue it's heir most important part of their program.

You should play fantasy football with me. I play with these guys in auction draft format. I routinely make it deep in the playoffs just with boring value picks on my entire roster. Actually, at 1 buck I am buying Trubisky as my starter. Save my money and fill my roster with Devonta Freeman, Leonard Fournette, Lesean Mccoy. Spend big on kicker and defense. Works every year. Statistics say I should do that. So I do.

 

[iueyedoc]

Statistics and probability is a world I am comfortable with.

I mean,really????

 

[Bearly]

Oh Oh. Statistically, a lot more UDFAs than 7th round picks make nfl teams.

 

[pinkfloydster]

Because it's a poor indicator?

M

Oh Oh. Statistically, a lot more UDFAs than 7th round picks make nfl teams.

There's a lot more UDFA's than seven round picks. On an individual basis 7 th round picks are far more likely to be a contributor than a UDFA. Still UDFA's are vital.

https://www.catscratchreader.com/20...gents-play-more-often-than-you-probably-think

 

[iueyedoc]

So looked a little further into RAS of OT's due to PunkFloodster's Leno reference. I went about 100 deep and did not find one player that RAS indicated to be high level, that wasn't already well thought of due to their actual play on the field. Closest I found was Doug Free at around the 80th ranked, he was a fourth round pick, sat two seasons before become a starter and had a solid yeoman's career. If out of 100 players RAS finds one that slightly outplayed his draft position it seems a monkey flinging his shit at a list is more likely to hit a diamond in the rough than RAS.

 

[Bearly]

M


There's a lot more UDFA's than seven round picks. On an individual basis 7 th round picks are far more likely to be a contributor than a UDFA. Still UDFA's are vital.

https://www.catscratchreader.com/20...gents-play-more-often-than-you-probably-think

So?

 

[pinkfloydster]

So looked a little further into RAS of OT's due to PunkFloodster's Leno reference. I went about 100 deep and did not find one player that RAS indicated to be high level, that wasn't already well thought of due to their actual play on the field. Closest I found was Doug Free at around the 80th ranked, he was a fourth round pick, sat two seasons before become a starter and had a solid yeoman's career. If out of 100 players RAS finds one that slightly outplayed his draft position it seems a monkey flinging his shit at a list is more likely to hit a diamond in the rough than RAS.

This is from 2016 but it looks at the average RAS for an offensive line was and it's PFF rank. Would stands out to me is the Eagles had the highest RAS back then and for the next three years put together one of the top if not the top offensive line in the NFL.


https://www.prideofdetroit.com/2016/5/10/11634906/athleticism-and-offensive-line-success

 

[MDB111™]

If Denmark is so special, he would have been drafted higher. Could he be a diamond in the rough? Maybe? but odds are stuffing him on the practice squad shouldnt change much.
If he is that god damned special, he will make the active roster. I am personally not concerned about keeping him/losing him at this point.

 

[pinkfloydster]

squad

If Denmark is so special, he would have been drafted higher. Could he be a diamond in the rough? Maybe? but odds are stuffing him on the practice squad shouldnt change much.
If he is that god damned special, he will make the active roster. I am personally not concerned about keeping him/losing him at this point.

One of the points I am making is that the Bears approach to building a team is to identify a handful of key players and commit massive resources by way of draft picks and salary to get them. Then they build their roster by getting 30 to 40 UDFAs and 6th and 7th round picks and find 4 diamonds in the rough. By diamond in the rough I mean key contributor and not necessarily a pro bowl apperance. That said, they literally can't afford to let a promising prospect get taken. They just don't have the picks to sustain such a loss. Unless Denmark is a total trainwreck no way he ends up on practice squad.

 

[gallagher]

squad

One of the points I am making is that the Bears approach to building a team is to identify a handful of key players and commit massive resources by way of draft picks and salary to get them. Then they build their roster by getting 30 to 40 UDFAs and 6th and 7th round picks and find 4 diamonds in the rough. By diamond in the rough I mean key contributor and not necessarily a pro bowl apperance. That said, they literally can't afford to let a promising prospect get taken. They just don't have the picks to sustain such a loss. Unless Denmark is a total trainwreck no way he ends up on practice squad.

They totally can sustain such a loss because in Denmark's case, he wont get playing time unless three people in front of him get injured. Denmark is the replaceable one; Jackson, Fuller, those guys are irreplaceable. Look at how our team performed with them out. Denmark's roll will likely be to sacrifice his body on ST and hope to make a big stop a couple times a year. That is not being a diamond in the rough, that is playing up to expectations.

If you are talking about him playing in future years, then we arent at a loss because there are plenty of prospects with high arbitrary athletic rankings that will be available through this 30-40 UDFA plan you swear by.

Why are you so bent on a player that will not be anything higher than third on the depth chart for the foreseeable future?

 

[pinkfloydster]

They totally can sustain such a loss because in Denmark's case, he wont get playing time unless three people in front of him get injured. Denmark is the replaceable one; Jackson, Fuller, those guys are irreplaceable. Look at how our team performed with them out. Denmark's roll will likely be to sacrifice his body on ST and hope to make a big stop a couple times a year. That is not being a diamond in the rough, that is playing up to expectations.

If you are talking about him playing in future years, then we arent at a loss because there are plenty of prospects with high arbitrary athletic rankings that will be available through this 30-40 UDFA plan you swear by.

Why are you so bent on a player that will not be anything higher than third on the depth chart for the foreseeable future?

The Bears can’t afford to let any key contributor walk and be a key contributor elsewhere. If Denmark can’t cut it, then no biggie let him go. My point being that with the lack of draft picks, they have to be pretty liberal as far as opening roster spots to prospects. It’s the cost of the specific managerial style.

And it’s not anything I swear by. It’s a fact based upon what they’re doing in front of our eyes.

I am fascinated by the selection, as well as Kerryth White. Yea, he’s third on the depth chart at best but he replaces someone two years from now, hopefully.

 

[Payton!34]

Betting some sports like football that doesn’t penalize ties is the best bet and closest to 50% if you’re smart about your bets.

Denmark is a home run swing and admittedly so by Pace himself. He’s a terrific athlete with very low football skills as of now.

He could very well turn into a star player but odds are stacked against him as far as we know. That could change in a heartbeat but if he couldn’t play Wr with those measurables then I’d pause on his stardom.

 

[Raskolnikov]

It's not that wild of a guess, considering some people have been suggesting that since the moment we drafted him...

Yes...

there is no reason to view him as an NFL CB when his body says safety. His lack of defensive football won't impact him as much there.

This was brought up also as relating to the fact that Pagano's likes to play with 3 safeties sometimes. As a big nickel guy, having a tweener around is no surprise at all.

 

[gallagher]

The Bears can’t afford to let any key contributor walk and be a key contributor elsewhere. If Denmark can’t cut it, then no biggie let him go. My point being that with the lack of draft picks, they have to be pretty liberal as far as opening roster spots to prospects. It’s the cost of the specific managerial style.

And it’s not anything I swear by. It’s a fact based upon what they’re doing in front of our eyes.

I am fascinated by the selection, as well as Kerryth White. Yea, he’s third on the depth chart at best but he replaces someone two years from now, hopefully.

Whyte is going to bring at least 8 big plays this year. Mark my words.

I feel like averaging one big play every other game is a good measurement for such a low round pick.

I'm qualifying a big play here as a play of more than 15 yards where he makes more than one person miss OR beats someone with speed. Denmark is probably going to the PS and will be safe there until we have right of first refusal.

Edit - so like, following blockers on a screen, or taking a dumpoff for a first down and getting dropped by the first guy aren't "big plays" for my prediction