World Series IGT: Chicago Cubs vs. Cleveland Indians Game 5

[DanTown]

What? So, he hasnt been one of the Cubs best hitters this post season and defensive players? Yes, we know Baez is streaky but he also won 2 games this post season. So, thanks for the reply because you didnt accomplish much.

What has he done this post season that surprises you? Him being a great defender at 2B? That was clear throughout the year and his tagging ability is obviously incredibly important when Lester and Arreta are on the mound.

At the plate? He continually (though less frequently than before) swings at pitches out of the zone, takes too aggressive of a swing for the situation, and does not work a count or a pitcher to either take walks or get himself in favorable hitting situations.

I don't care that he's "won" games or not; that's not predictive. I just don't see how anyone can say "yeah, Baez is different".

 

[SilenceS]

What has he done this post season that surprises you? Him being a great defender at 2B? That was clear throughout the year and his tagging ability is obviously incredibly important when Lester and Arreta are on the mound.

At the plate? He continually (though less frequently than before) swings at pitches out of the zone, takes too aggressive of a swing for the situation, and does not work a count or a pitcher to either take walks or get himself in favorable hitting situations.

I don't care that he's "won" games or not; that's not predictive. I just don't see how anyone can say "yeah, Baez is different".

He didnt work counts this post season? Lulz. He was in deep count all playoffs until his streak. Yet again, 7 RBI's and 2 game winning hits and probably your best defensive player on the field and one of your best base runners. Sit him because you mud at his approach even though he was a big reason we won game 5.

 

[DanTown]

I know. He is the reason the Cubs have been shut out 4 times. He got out 27 times a game.

Yeah, that's not what I said nor implied. Good job! You're almost as bad as Omlette because at least I expect him to be an idiot but you, I have higher hopes to actually maintain a reasonable discussion about a player and not cloud it with personal opinion.

Baez has been a huge negative with the bat in this series. Does it outweigh the few game changing plays he's made at second base in this series? Hard to tell. Striking out to end the game with two runners on and two outs is DRASTICALLY more important. The Cubs win probability went from 24% to 0% when Baez struck out to end game 3. That's a HUGE shift in Win Probability in that game. I think you'd be hard pressed to find any defensive play that "saved" 24% in terms of win probability.

 

[TL1961]

Imagine how insulting that's going to be for the BP.

Well, that's the absolute last thing to consider when making the decision.

 

[SilenceS]

Yeah, that's not what I said nor implied. Good job! You're almost as bad as Omlette because at least I expect him to be an idiot but you, I have higher hopes to actually maintain a reasonable discussion about a player and not cloud it with personal opinion.

Baez has been a huge negative with the bat in this series. Does it outweigh the few game changing plays he's made at second base in this series? Hard to tell. Striking out to end the game with two runners on and two outs is DRASTICALLY more important. The Cubs win probability went from 24% to 0% when Baez struck out to end game 3. That's a HUGE shift in Win Probability in that game. I think you'd be hard pressed to find any defensive play that "saved" 24% in terms of win probability.

I also know that 23 year old players with the game on the line dont come through more often then not. I am in no way saying Baez hasnt had terrible at bats and it certain spots. What I have been against is sitting him for Cogs and Soler while weakening the defense for two guys that have done nothing all playoffs.

 

[SilenceS]

I mean Kris Bryant has been absolutely awful until the home run and its just not at the plate. Its with the defense as well. But, we arent going to sit him because you know what he can be. I see no difference with Baez at this point. Ride the horses that got you here.

 

[DanTown]

He didnt work counts this post season? Lulz. He was in deep count all playoffs until his streak. Yet again, 7 RBI's and 2 game winning hits and probably your best defensive player on the field and one of your best base runners. Sit him because you mud at his approach even though he was a big reason we won game 5.

.271/.290/.390
27.4% K rate
3.2% BB rate

.273/.314/.423
24.0% K rate
3.3% BB rate

Which is the post season and which is the regular season?

He's INSANELY streaky, he's been that way before this series and will be that way after.

The question is what do you get the next two days?

 

[TL1961]

The lack of any critical thought on this or any thread on this forum is baffling. I sure hope that none of you work in the business field or even operate heavy machinery. Then again 'Slurpee Machine Technician' probably doesn't require a lot of critical thought.

This wasn't a matter of pinch hitting the wrong guy or ignoring a righty lefty matchup. This was the decision to pitch a closer - who pitches one inning - for almost three full innings. A guy who, when his pitch count gets up, gets wild. A guy who has never thrown 42 pitches in the MLB. A guy who has his longest outting in 4 seasons

That's not the easy baseball call. That was a very risky move. It paid off but you dopes acting like it was some baseball absolute and a no brainier is just ridiculous.

But that won't stop the regular band of dipshits from claiming their positions on the baseball knowledge throne

How did that Dale Carnegie course work out for you?

 

[SilenceS]

.271/.290/.390
27.4% K rate
3.2% BB rate

.273/.314/.423
24.0% K rate
3.3% BB rate

Which is the post season and which is the regular season?

So, you are telling me he is due for a hot streak again? So, you are telling me he is pretty productive compared to the rest of the Cubs lineup.

 

[DanTown]

I mean Kris Bryant has been absolutely awful until the home run and its just not at the plate. Its with the defense as well. But, we arent going to sit him because you know what he can be. I see no difference with Baez at this point. Ride the horses that got you here.

Except Kris Bryant was a 8+ WAR player and the likely MVP who was consistent mostly with his production.

I have no problem with Baez playing tomorrow (I tend to think you need his defense at 2B) but it's entirely fair to question if he's hurt you in this series with the bat. It's also fair to question if his bat is so far gone that you simply won't have time for it to regress. If he's doing what he's done the past two nights (1-8 with 4 K and a DP) then he can't make that value up in the field. Joe WAAAAAAAAY more than me knows how Javy will likely react and is taking his recent poor play. But it's of course to fair to question in a sample of two games if you want a guy at the plate who has no confidence to swing at strikes.

This is a two way conversation almost: Baez's production for this series has been massively negative. He's literally 2-17 with 9K; the question is does he regress to his normal numbers or keep giving you what he's given you so far. If you feel he's going to progress to his level, you play him. If you feel that he won't, you can't afford to give up outs like that.

 

[SilenceS]

Except Kris Bryant was a 8+ WAR player and the likely MVP who was consistent mostly with his production.

I have no problem with Baez playing tomorrow (I tend to think you need his defense at 2B) but it's entirely fair to question if he's hurt you in this series with the bat.

Baez 2.9 fWAR as a non part time player isnt to shabby either. Baez has had terrible at bats, but that bunt single was pretty big. Him looking bad one at bat doesnt correlate to him having another bad at bat. He doesnt work like that. He is random and streaky. He pumps up to much and needs to slow the game down which he says all the time. With that, I am taking my chances with him on the field because he affects the game way more than with just the bat. Cogs and Soler can only do that with the bat. If the do it with defense, then its going to bad.

 

[DanTown]

It's not just "he's making outs". It's "he's so far off that he's taking strikes and swinging at pitches that go 55 feet". You have to believe that he's going to get better with the bat; if you thought that he wouldn't get better with the bat, his defense, even spectacular at 2B, is not worth it. NO ONE's defense is worth being an automatic out that K's over 50% of the time (which he has in this series).

 

[Diehardfan]

They have so much swing and miss in their bats that I can't imagine the Cubs ever doing this plus the Cubs simply don't have that many basestealers. One of the guys who does steal (Fowler) hits in front of your power hitters so you're not going to marginalize their bats. I think in the future (i.e not tomorrow night), Contreras and Russell will be guys the Cubs have no problem doing this with.

I can't really argue that point....but doing something other than waiting around for a 3 run homer seems appropriate.

 

[DanTown]

Baez 2.9 fWAR as a non part time player isnt to shabby either. Baez has had terrible at bats, but that bunt single was pretty big. Him looking bad one at bat doesnt correlate to him having another bad at bat. He doesnt work like that. He is random and streaky. He pumps up to much and needs to slow the game down which he says all the time. With that, I am taking my chances with him on the field because he affects the game way more than with just the bat. Cogs and Soler can only do that with the bat. If the do it with defense, then its going to bad.

He got 450 PA so he wasn't that part-time but I agree with SOME of this. Baez has to "revert" back to what he was in the regular season (strikes out 1 in four times but also gets an XBH with some regularity). I get that he's of course young but it's down 3-2 in the WS, I don't have the time to wait for him to work his way through this. If I'm starting him tomorrow, I have to have SOME belief he's going to better with the bat and that's either via talking with him, placing him lower in the lineup, IDK, SOMETHING. Because I can't say "I can live with his offense right now" because no, you can't. I'm as Saber as anyone on this board so trust me, I understand the idea that I concern myself with the sample of his season and not the past week; however, I do also understand that this game is played by human beings and not robots so there is a human element that lends itself to this discussion. Javy is the kind of guy who slumps/streaks until he doesn't. Normally, I'd say start him until he's out of it but if lose tomorrow, I don't get any more chances.

The question you ask is will Javy change and what will spark the change. Because if the situation is "he's pressing beause he's struggling to handle the magnitude of the situation", that doesn't change tomorrow.

 

[DanTown]

So, you are telling me he is due for a hot streak again? So, you are telling me he is pretty productive compared to the rest of the Cubs lineup.

I'm telling you that the guy isn't any different than the regular season, "clutch" stats or not.

 

[beckdawg]

ITs not conjecture because I have seen the outcomes of the games and what he has done. Cogs and Soler have what a combined 2 hits all post season? Baez has 7 RBI's this post season. Its shit and a wall.

Discussing anything Baez with you is largely pointless so I'm not sure it's worth continuing on with this because you're pretty head strong when it comes to him. The last thing I'm going to say is this just to make perfectly clear what my argument is. Baez as you said is a streaky player. He was great in the earlier series largely because he was putting in much better at bats. His 2 strike approach was quite good in the first 2 series. Right now the Indians are getting him out every time with curve balls out of the zone. He can't handle that pitch right now. If you want to believe that's going to change then fine but we're 5 games into a 7 game series and it hasn't happened yet. Believing it will change is purely conjecture at this point. It's not just a case of him hitting into bad luck. His K rate this series is up above 40%.

Other than that it is about opportunity cost. His defense is great. I'm not denying that. But as mentioned if the cubs don't score runs in the first 5-6 innings of the game they are largely fucked. I don't think you disagree with that either. Soler in particular have had good success throughout the season vs curve balls which is Tomlin's bread and butter. Both he and Cogs have high grades for their ability to put in good at bats even if the results haven't been spectacular yet. Sure it's conjecture to suggest they are going to have better success tomorrow than Baez but it's not "throwing shit at the wall." It's playing odds the same way you would with playing a RH/LH match up. That too doesn't guarantee success but the hope is that over time your odds win out.

Clearly you disagree which is fine but you don't have to be a dick when someone disagrees with you. And to be honest, I'm not even sure I'd sit Baez vs Kluber if the cubs do win game 6. In that particular match up, the cubs are going to struggle to score no matter who's out there even if Kluber does throw a great curveball. Given that I'd probably rather Baez with his defense out there. But Tomlin is a guy the cubs have to be able to tag for runs early or the season is over because I don't see them knocking him out of the game and then getting to the indians bullpen. If you want to believe Baez is going to get some hits tomorrow and help the cubs score fine. That's your opinion but given the results thus far this series I don't think I'm out of line suggesting he will struggle against Tomlin. He hasn't hit well in the series and was 0-4 seeing only 14 pitches in the game they lost to Tomlin already. I just don't think that game 6 vs Tomlin is a particularly good match up for him.

 

[Diehardfan]

Discussing anything Baez with you is largely pointless so I'm not sure it's worth continuing on with this because you're pretty head strong when it comes to him. The last thing I'm going to say is this just to make perfectly clear what my argument is. Baez as you said is a streaky player. He was great in the earlier series largely because he was putting in much better at bats. His 2 strike approach was quite good in the first 2 series. Right now the Indians are getting him out every time with curve balls out of the zone. He can't handle that pitch right now. If you want to believe that's going to change then fine but we're 5 games into a 7 game series and it hasn't happened yet. Believing it will change is purely conjecture at this point. It's not just a case of him hitting into bad luck. His K rate this series is up above 40%.

Other than that it is about opportunity cost. His defense is great. I'm not denying that. But as mentioned if the cubs don't score runs in the first 5-6 innings of the game they are largely fucked. I don't think you disagree with that either. Soler in particular have had good success throughout the season vs curve balls which is Tomlin's bread and butter. Both he and Cogs have high grades for their ability to put in good at bats even if the results haven't been spectacular yet. Sure it's conjecture to suggest they are going to have better success tomorrow than Baez but it's not "throwing shit at the wall." It's playing odds the same way you would with playing a RH/LH match up. That too doesn't guarantee success but the hope is that over time your odds win out.

Clearly you disagree which is fine but you don't have to be a dick when someone disagrees with you. And to be honest, I'm not even sure I'd sit Baez vs Kluber if the cubs do win game 6. In that particular match up, the cubs are going to struggle to score no matter who's out there even if Kluber does throw a great curveball. Given that I'd probably rather Baez with his defense out there. But Tomlin is a guy the cubs have to be able to tag for runs early or the season is over because I don't see them knocking him out of the game and then getting to the indians bullpen. If you want to believe Baez is going to get some hits tomorrow and help the cubs score fine. That's your opinion but given the results thus far this series I don't think I'm out of line suggesting he will struggle against Tomlin. He hasn't hit well in the series and was 0-4 seeing only 14 pitches in the game they lost to Tomlin already. I just don't think that game 6 vs Tomlin is a particularly good match up for him.

Unless these Cub hitters start showing a little restraint....Tomlin isn't a good match up for anybody. He's the right handed version of Hill. He lets people get themselves out.

 

[Parade_Rain]

Yeah, that's not what I said nor implied. Good job! You're almost as bad as Omlette because at least I expect him to be an idiot but you, I have higher hopes to actually maintain a reasonable discussion about a player and not cloud it with personal opinion.

Baez has been a huge negative with the bat in this series. Does it outweigh the few game changing plays he's made at second base in this series? Hard to tell. Striking out to end the game with two runners on and two outs is DRASTICALLY more important. The Cubs win probability went from 24% to 0% when Baez struck out to end game 3. That's a HUGE shift in Win Probability in that game. I think you'd be hard pressed to find any defensive play that "saved" 24% in terms of win probability.

You have to excuse SilenceS sometimes. He's a Baez fanboy. If Baez was a fat girl, he would drink 10 beers just to make her look like more edible.

 

[beckdawg]

Unless these Cub hitters start showing a little restraint....Tomlin isn't a good match up for anybody. He's the right handed version of Hill. He lets people get themselves out.

You're not wrong but to be fair, Soler was 2-3 in that game vs him. Against Hill Soler was 0-1 with a walk. So, out of 5 PA's he was on base 3 times. Soler hasn't had a ton of hits this post season but he's always had a patient approach. So, regardless I'm pretty sure he starts whether Baez does or not.

 

[Omeletpants]

Yeah, that's not what I said nor implied. Good job! You're almost as bad as Omlette because at least I expect him to be an idiot but you, I have higher hopes to actually maintain a reasonable discussion about a player and not cloud it with personal opinion.

**** you, asshole. Leave me out of your petty arguments