Would You Take a Chance on Matt Harvey?

[CSF77]

I'm still standing by aiming for Archer in a trade and set up the 5 as a internal battle. Save cash for tying up Bryant long term.

Honestly Archer would cost 2 of (Schwarber/Happ/Russell/Baez) flat rate. Cubs may talk into a fringe prospect arm as a plus due to the trade weight going out.

But doing that sets the rotation as Lester/Archer/Q/Hendricks and winner of internal battle. Which gives Monty, Zast, Tseng, Butler and Mills a fighting chance to prove that they are MLB starters vs road blocked.

 

[DanTown]

Harvey went from fantastic control (2013 and 2014 he had 370 innings of sub 2BB/9) to where he has 4.5+BB/9. Harvey, like most good young pitchers, lived on the peripherals of the zone and getting missed contact on pitches out of the zone. His contact rate out of the zone used to be 60%, now it's closer to 70%. Guys still have a 50% or so swing rate on him but he's just not missing bats like he used to. I think there's enough there to take a chance on him. I'd be more aggressive than most and do something like this

2018 - 16 m
2019 - 18 m
2020 - 18 m (6 million guaranteed, 12 million vesting option that vests with either 180 innings in 2019 or 360 innings in 2018/2019 or vests with top 15 Cy Young vote)
2021 - 22 million (0 guaranteed, same guarantee as 2020 with years moved one)
2022 - 24 million (0 guaranteed, same guarantee as 2021 with years moved one)

Top 5 Cy Young vote voids final years of any contract and makes him UFA with no qualifying offer

If he's healthy and pitches well, he's going to 5/96. If he regains his elite status, he goes out and he gets to enter UFA and the Cubs get a bargain for a top 5 Cy Young pitcher no matter what he does. If he's terrible, he gets 2+/40. If he basically settles in at like a 2-3 WAR pitcher, the Cubs probably keep picking up the options and get about fair value for a pitcher of that skill. There's upside and downside for both but the Cubs and Harvey and seeing as his agent is Boras, I could see a deal like this making sense if the Cubs were to not tender Jake for example.

 

[CSF77]

Harvey went from fantastic control (2013 and 2014 he had 370 innings of sub 2BB/9) to where he has 4.5+BB/9. Harvey, like most good young pitchers, lived on the peripherals of the zone and getting missed contact on pitches out of the zone. His contact rate out of the zone used to be 60%, now it's closer to 70%. Guys still have a 50% or so swing rate on him but he's just not missing bats like he used to. I think there's enough there to take a chance on him. I'd be more aggressive than most and do something like this

2018 - 16 m
2019 - 18 m
2020 - 18 m (6 million guaranteed, 12 million vesting option that vests with either 180 innings in 2019 or 360 innings in 2018/2019 or vests with top 15 Cy Young vote)
2021 - 22 million (0 guaranteed, same guarantee as 2020 with years moved one)
2022 - 24 million (0 guaranteed, same guarantee as 2021 with years moved one)

Top 5 Cy Young vote voids final years of any contract and makes him UFA with no qualifying offer

If he's healthy and pitches well, he's going to 5/96. If he regains his elite status, he goes out and he gets to enter UFA and the Cubs get a bargain for a top 5 Cy Young pitcher no matter what he does. If he's terrible, he gets 2+/40. If he basically settles in at like a 2-3 WAR pitcher, the Cubs probably keep picking up the options and get about fair value for a pitcher of that skill. There's upside and downside for both but the Cubs and Harvey and seeing as his agent is Boras, I could see a deal like this making sense if the Cubs were to not tender Jake for example.

There is nothing that justifies that contract

 

[anotheridiot]

I doubt they take 2 major league guys to get Archer. But Tampa wants control and low cost so maybe Happ, Baez is 2 years away from getting paid. Cant get much worse than this years reclamation project in Anderson.

 

[beckdawg]

Matt Harvey is almost certain to be non-tendered by the Mets as his estimated arbitration award is likely to be about $9 million. My guess is that he could be had for $2-$3 mil. Would you take a look? Would Theo? I'm thinking yes and yes. The Mets are absolutely horrible in their training and medicals and there is no question he's been mishandled. It's possible he's been too damaged but it's also possible that he hasn't and at that price it could be worth the risk because you could even put him in the pen if he doesn't win a rotation spot. The guy was an elite MLB TOR arm just two years ago. Thoughts?

I'm thinking no. Theo and company haven't been big on club house messes and Harvey has had a number of spats with the Mets front office. I see the upside play in his arm but I think you only make those plays on guys who are worth it in the club house.

 

[jooo83]

If he was the replacement for Jake I would be disapointed.

If he blocks Tseng ditto

I view him as worse than Hendricks. About equal to Lackey right now.

Now I question his TOR ability. I would peg him with Wheeler. Good arm that has not put together consistent campaigns. Noah and DeGromm are the eliete arms on that team.

Harvey had a decent rookie year and did a strong play off run but everything he has shown is MOR. Not TOR

honestly they should aim higher and target a SP like Archer in a trade with excess depth. Get in the Otani sweepstakes. Pick up Cashner on a minor league deal and fix him at AAA. Then start Tseng as the 5.

As far as Harvey goes: would rather resign Jake and over pay. Would cringe but Jake is a proven TOR. Not a MOR.

Why would Cashner sign a minor league contract? He's not getting 20+ million a year but there's a very real possibility he gets long term deal from someone.

 

[CSF77]

Why would Cashner sign a minor league contract? He's not getting 20+ million a year but there's a very real possibility he gets long term deal from someone.

doubtful. After his recent history he needs to re-establish.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I'm thinking no. Theo and company haven't been big on club house messes and Harvey has had a number of spats with the Mets front office. I see the upside play in his arm but I think you only make those plays on guys who are worth it in the club house.

The one thing there is how much of that is on the awful Mets organization? There are indications from people who know Harvey that much of it is. That would be up to Theo to find out.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I doubt they take 2 major league guys to get Archer. But Tampa wants control and low cost so maybe Happ, Baez is 2 years away from getting paid. Cant get much worse than this years reclamation project in Anderson.

Believe it or not Tampa Bay consider themselves in a contention window with a still productive Longoria and some other decent position players to go with some nice young arms including Blake Snell who will be an ace. Archer can get them MLB talent which is what they need but you'll have to overpay. Prospects for Archer won't get their ear so the Cubs are in good position if they want to move some core pieces. We have no idea if they do though.

 

[anotheridiot]

Believe it or not Tampa Bay consider themselves in a contention window with a still productive Longoria and some other decent position players to go with some nice young arms including Blake Snell who will be an ace. Archer can get them MLB talent which is what they need but you'll have to overpay. Prospects for Archer won't get their ear so the Cubs are in good position if they want to move some core pieces. We have no idea if they do though.

Maybe because they are trying to get a new stadium, but it will be like Buerhle, Reyes etc and eventually moving on.

 

[Hammer]

Cubs need one RH TOR pitcher for 2018 season, and there are several options how to get him...

- resign Arrieta via. FA
- sign Darvish via. FA
- sign Otani via. posting
- trade for a starter like Archer, Cole, etc.


There are also 2 guys where Epstein will need to make a decision to resign them or not, closer Davis (who absolutely needs to be extended, IMO) and CF Jay (this position can be covered with Almora, Happ and Heyward).

 

[brett05]

Believe it or not Tampa Bay consider themselves in a contention window with a still productive Longoria and some other decent position players to go with some nice young arms including Blake Snell who will be an ace. Archer can get them MLB talent which is what they need but you'll have to overpay. Prospects for Archer won't get their ear so the Cubs are in good position if they want to move some core pieces. We have no idea if they do though.

Exactly. The only way the Cubs get a youg TOR is by moving Core pieces. Not sure that Theo and Crew want to pursue that route.

 

[CSF77]

I'm pretty sure Happ/Alzolay gets Archer in return.

Tampa has already been on Alzolay even before his jump in the ranks. Happ to be honest is Zobrist 2.0. Even with out Zo on the team you have a starter quality player covering every spot. Zo and Happ add to Joe's flexibility.

I would be fine with a trade like that. The Cubs need Archer more than extra depth and Almora is proving that he can wreck RHP. Baez also needs to prove that he is every day 2B quality.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I'm pretty sure Happ/Alzolay gets Archer in return.

Tampa has already been on Alzolay even before his jump in the ranks. Happ to be honest is Zobrist 2.0. Even with out Zo on the team you have a starter quality player covering every spot. Zo and Happ add to Joe's flexibility.

I would be fine with a trade like that. The Cubs need Archer more than extra depth and Almora is proving that he can wreck RHP. Baez also needs to prove that he is every day 2B quality.

I don't think Baez has anything left to prove to be honest, but I do worry about trading Happ. He's your Schwarber insurance policy. As much as I love Kyle Schwarber I'd be an idiot if I said there wasn't doubt because inconsistencies show you that there is. However, the upside is that there are a lot of FA bats available after 2018 and there is only so much money to go around and with the likes of Machado, Harper, Kershaw, Keuchel, etc. that will be FA and handsomely paid that offseason, so if Schwarber isn't who the FO thinks he is maybe that's their out. I just don't know.

 

[fatbeard]

I don't think Baez has anything left to prove to be honest, but I do worry about trading Happ. He's your Schwarber insurance policy. As much as I love Kyle Schwarber I'd be an idiot if I said there wasn't doubt because inconsistencies show you that there is. However, the upside is that there are a lot of FA bats available after 2018 and there is only so much money to go around and with the likes of Machado, Harper, Kershaw, Keuchel, etc. that will be FA and handsomely paid that offseason, so if Schwarber isn't who the FO thinks he is maybe that's their out. I just don't know.

Schwarber had a horrific first half and has a nearly .900 OPS in the second. Including his awful first half, he's got 28 HRs in only 460-some PAs. That's a 39 HR pace over 650 PAs. A year removed from a devastating knee injury. I don't know why we're still wringing our hands and doubting whether he's a long term part of the Cubs future?

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Schwarber had a horrific first half and has a nearly .900 OPS in the second. Including his awful first half, he's got 28 HRs in only 460-some PAs. That's a 39 HR pace over 650 PAs. A year removed from a devastating knee injury. I don't know why we're still wringing our hands and doubting whether he's a long term part of the Cubs future?

You're preaching to the choir. I think he's going to have a hell of a season next year, but to acknowledge the possibility of doubt is silly and Theo knows a lot more about him than we do. Given what I know? Hell no I don't move him, but there could be a lot I don't know. So I guess that begs the question if they do trust Kyle and Happ and Alzolay gets you Archer are you doing that?

As an aside, I think TB needs at least two more run producers to compete in the AL East and LA could give them that in one trade whereas we cannot. That could be a problem if they want Archer too, and I know why they wouldn't.

 

[brett05]

I'm pretty sure Happ/Alzolay gets Archer in return.

Tampa has already been on Alzolay even before his jump in the ranks. Happ to be honest is Zobrist 2.0. Even with out Zo on the team you have a starter quality player covering every spot. Zo and Happ add to Joe's flexibility.

I would be fine with a trade like that. The Cubs need Archer more than extra depth and Almora is proving that he can wreck RHP. Baez also needs to prove that he is every day 2B quality.

I don't think Alzolay has the value you put on him. It's basically Happ for Archer and for me it's not nearly enough. Pitching is way too valuable.

 

[fatbeard]

You're preaching to the choir. I think he's going to have a hell of a season next year, but to acknowledge the possibility of doubt is silly and Theo knows a lot more about him than we do. Given what I know? Hell no I don't move him, but there could be a lot I don't know. So I guess that begs the question if they do trust Kyle and Happ and Alzolay gets you Archer are you doing that?

As an aside, I think TB needs at least two more run producers to compete in the AL East and LA could give them that in one trade whereas we cannot. That could be a problem if they want Archer too, and I know why they wouldn't.

I don't see how trading six years of Happ, who looks like a future All-Star, for two years of Archer makes the Cubs a substantively better team, even in 2018 or 2019. If Quintana wasn't on board, maybe the SP situation would be desperate enough to consider it, but Happ does a lot of things for the roster: First, he's already good and he's going to be really fucking good very soon. He provides insurance against injury and decline from an aging Zobrist. He allows the Cubs to continue to use Baez as a super-sub and multi-position defensive whiz. He protects against injury, continued ineffectiveness, or an opt-out by Heyward (not that I think he would opt-out, but who knows). I'd rather reasonably overpay Arrieta to stick around than to go down that route. There is nothing about a rotation of Lester, Quintana, Hendricks, Montgomery, and FA Veteran/Zastryzny/Tseng etc. that screams to me, 'OH MY GOD WE NEED TO TAKE DRASTIC MEAUSRES TO FIX THIS'. Am I wrong?

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I don't think Alzolay has the value you put on him. It's basically Happ for Archer and for me it's not nearly enough. Pitching is way too valuable.

You could be right. Guys in the know think that there are several teams who value Alzolay higher than the Cubs do. We'll see I guess if he's moved. If TB decides to move Archer, and do they think they will, it will be to increase run production and the Dodgers and Yankees could offer more MLB talent in trade than the Cubs can. All I can say is that it will be interesting.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I don't see how trading six years of Happ, who looks like a future All-Star, for two years of Archer makes the Cubs a substantively better team, even in 2018 or 2019. If Quintana wasn't on board, maybe the SP situation would be desperate enough to consider it, but Happ does a lot of things for the roster: First, he's already good and he's going to be really fucking good very soon. He provides insurance against injury and decline from an aging Zobrist. He allows the Cubs to continue to use Baez as a super-sub and multi-position defensive whiz. He protects against injury, continued ineffectiveness, or an opt-out by Heyward (not that I think he would opt-out, but who knows). I'd rather reasonably overpay Arrieta to stick around than to go down that route. There is nothing about a rotation of Lester, Quintana, Hendricks, Montgomery, and FA Veteran/Zastryzny/Tseng etc. that screams to me, 'OH MY GOD WE NEED TO TAKE DRASTIC MEAUSRES TO FIX THIS'. Am I wrong?

Yeah, I think you're wrong, but they're all opinions right? I think you're severely overestimating Lester's production in his age 34 season. I think if you count on him being more than a #3 starter in 2018 you're making a risky bet. That's not to say he can't be but to me the FO made a strategic error going into this year without another starter and I don't want to see that again. Listen, maybe there wasn't a deal to be made but if there was and they didn't make it I think it cost the team 2.5-3 wins. Sure Schwarber's early struggles probably cost 2 wins, Zobrist's struggles 1 or 2 and Russell's injury 1 but if we were sitting at 87 or 88 wins today we wouldn't be biting our nails going into a Milwaukee series this weekend. I think you build a championship team to win 95 games, everything beyond that is a mixture of luck and circumstance, and that rotation you mention doesn't look like a rotation that supports those 95 wins. Just my opinion,