Would You Take a Chance on Matt Harvey?

[fatbeard]

Yeah, I think you're wrong, but they're all opinions right? I think you're severely overestimating Lester's production in his age 34 season. I think if you count on him being more than a #3 starter in 2018 you're making a risky bet. That's not to say he can't be but to me the FO made a strategic error going into this year without another starter and I don't want to see that again. Listen, maybe there wasn't a deal to be made but if there was and they didn't make it I think it cost the team 2.5-3 wins. Sure Schwarber's early struggles probably cost 2 wins, Zobrist's struggles 1 or 2 and Russell's injury 1 but if we were sitting at 87 or 88 wins today we wouldn't be biting our nails going into a Milwaukee series this weekend. I think you build a championship team to win 95 games, everything beyond that is a mixture of luck and circumstance, and that rotation you mention doesn't look like a rotation that supports those 95 wins. Just my opinion,

I guess it's all in on Shohei Otani then.

 

[CSF77]

I don't see how trading six years of Happ, who looks like a future All-Star, for two years of Archer makes the Cubs a substantively better team, even in 2018 or 2019. If Quintana wasn't on board, maybe the SP situation would be desperate enough to consider it, but Happ does a lot of things for the roster: First, he's already good and he's going to be really fucking good very soon. He provides insurance against injury and decline from an aging Zobrist. He allows the Cubs to continue to use Baez as a super-sub and multi-position defensive whiz. He protects against injury, continued ineffectiveness, or an opt-out by Heyward (not that I think he would opt-out, but who knows). I'd rather reasonably overpay Arrieta to stick around than to go down that route. There is nothing about a rotation of Lester, Quintana, Hendricks, Montgomery, and FA Veteran/Zastryzny/Tseng etc. that screams to me, 'OH MY GOD WE NEED TO TAKE DRASTIC MEAUSRES TO FIX THIS'. Am I wrong?

The team would be drastically worse with that rotation.

 

[CSF77]

I guess it's all in on Shohei Otani then.

Can't go all in on a guy that rakes and 1/2 of the teams in the majors can utilize that perk and you are not one of them.

 

[CSF77]

I don't think Alzolay has the value you put on him. It's basically Happ for Archer and for me it's not nearly enough. Pitching is way too valuable.

Pitching is that valuable but we are talking 3x the control for a all star quality bat. I'll disagree with that. Add to it Alozay has #2 upside so you are underselling him.

 

[ijustposthere]

I don't think Alzolay has the value you put on him. It's basically Happ for Archer and for me it's not nearly enough. Pitching is way too valuable.

You think the Sox didn't get enough in the Quitana trade, so it's fairly easy to see that you have no clue what is or isn't valuable.

 

[beckdawg]

The one thing there is how much of that is on the awful Mets organization? There are indications from people who know Harvey that much of it is. That would be up to Theo to find out.

Well obviously if it's not an issue then it's not an issue but I'm guessing there's more on him than just the mets being shit. Supposedly he was suspended this year because he was late to a game or didn't show I forget. Don't care what the situation is but if you don't show up on time that's a pretty shit thing to do. I think even if he has those issues there's a price he makes sense but I don't think $2-3 million dollars is that price. I don't mind the idea of them going higher than that but I'd want the base to be around $1 mil with a lot of incentives. You need him on a contract that isn't painful to just flat out cut because I imagine he's out of options.

Long story short, I don't think you can sign him as a guy who is guaranteed a slot in the roster. You sign him as a guy competing for one in my eyes. Like I think you can't even consider him and Anderson(coming into this year) on the same level at this point because at least when healthy Anderson was good.

 

[beckdawg]

I'm pretty sure Happ/Alzolay gets Archer in return.

I'd be shocked if Tampa would even consider that. Happ is an interesting player but he doesn't appear to me to be someone you build a franchise around. Alzolay is a mid rotation starter at best. Cubs gave up more than that for Quintana who most would suggest isn't as good as Archer.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Well obviously if it's not an issue then it's not an issue but I'm guessing there's more on him than just the mets being shit. Supposedly he was suspended this year because he was late to a game or didn't show I forget. Don't care what the situation is but if you don't show up on time that's a pretty shit thing to do. I think even if he has those issues there's a price he makes sense but I don't think $2-3 million dollars is that price. I don't mind the idea of them going higher than that but I'd want the base to be around $1 mil with a lot of incentives. You need him on a contract that isn't painful to just flat out cut because I imagine he's out of options.

Long story short, I don't think you can sign him as a guy who is guaranteed a slot in the roster. You sign him as a guy competing for one in my eyes. Like I think you can't even consider him and Anderson(coming into this year) on the same level at this point because at least when healthy Anderson was good.

That last bit doesn't make sense to me because when Harvey was healthy he was great, far, far better than Anderson. Two years ago n 189 innings he was 2.71 ERA 3.05 FIP 4.4 fWAR. His K/9 was 8.94 and his BB/9 was 1.76 and he was better the year before that. He was hurt all last year and struggled to come back from surgery this year but has only lost a tick in velocity. To me the comparison to Anderson is crazy. Harvey probably deserves about $5 mil per, maybe you get him cheaper, some think he'll be more costly. I get he has to prove himself but mostly he has to be healthy.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I'd be shocked if Tampa would even consider that. Happ is an interesting player but he doesn't appear to me to be someone you build a franchise around. Alzolay is a mid rotation starter at best. Cubs gave up more than that for Quintana who most would suggest isn't as good as Archer.

The Cubs traded 3 "ifs" for Quintana, Happ is more known and while Alzolay is an "if" that's a better package than the Q deal to me. That said, yeah I think it will take more. Wouldn't shock me if LA offered Puig and Verdugo for instance. That's a better deal for the Rays.

 

[beckdawg]

That last bit doesn't make sense to me because when Harvey was healthy he was great, far, far better than Anderson. Two years ago n 189 innings he was 2.71 ERA 3.05 FIP 4.4 fWAR. His K/9 was 8.94 and his BB/9 was 1.76 and he was better the year before that. He was hurt all last year and struggled to come back from surgery this year but has only lost a tick in velocity. To me the comparison to Anderson is crazy. Harvey probably deserves about $5 mil per, maybe you get him cheaper, some think he'll be more costly. I get he has to prove himself but mostly he has to be healthy.

I mean it's been 3 years since he came back from TJS. While true he had that crap where they take out your rib(thoritic outlet syndrom?) last year, it's not like he pitched well prior to going down and he hasn't pitched well since then. If you want to place blame on injury ok but from my stand point he's either not the same as he was pre TJS or he's an injury concern or both.

The Cubs traded 3 "ifs" for Quintana, Happ is more known and while Alzolay is an "if" that's a better package than the Q deal to me. That said, yeah I think it will take more. Wouldn't shock me if LA offered Puig and Verdugo for instance. That's a better deal for the Rays.

I don't really agree. If you want to argue Happ is better than Jiminez... i mean that I can see the argument for though my personal opinion is Jiminez has a higher upside. I think calling them a wash is probably fair. However, Alzolay isn't really anywhere near as talented as Cease. While true he pitched well in AA and Cease isn't out of A yet, the tools are just ok. Don't get me wrong I'm not trying to run down Alzolay here but he's not a big ground ball pitcher(37.7% in A+ this year and 33.3% in AA) and he's not a big K rate guy either(more average to slightly above not really bad but also not elite). As I said, he's got the look of a mid rotation starter. And also as I said, I think most people still argue that even if Happ/Alzolay were equal to Cease/Jiminez, Archer is worth more.

 

[CSF77]

I'd be shocked if Tampa would even consider that. Happ is an interesting player but he doesn't appear to me to be someone you build a franchise around. Alzolay is a mid rotation starter at best. Cubs gave up more than that for Quintana who most would suggest isn't as good as Archer.

Almost think Q and Archer are a push honestly. You could argue either way.

Way I look at it
Q equaled a top 10 and a top 100.

Happ was top 25 but he is established vs in AA.
Cease is higher ranked but comes with many questions on his ability to be a major league quality starter and may end up a closer. Azolay has a higher floor.

Now the pitcher to me is of no concern. I would trade De La Cruz if that is what it took. But TB was already doing the scouting on Alozay and he really is the highest % chance to be a rotation fixture.

If it is me I would be looking at it as Archer for a sure thing and a pretty much sure thing vs De La Cruz who has had 2 setback injuries.

 

[beckdawg]

Azolay has a higher floor.

Even if Cease ends up in the bullpen I'm not sure that's true. Assuming neither blows out an arm and even if Cease ends up in the bullpen you're talking about a closer with ridiculous stuff vs probably a #3 starter best case. Think most front offices would take an elite closer type over say Shark or a Cashner type arm and both Shark and Cashner probably have better pure stuff than Alzolay.

 

[CSF77]

Even if Cease ends up in the bullpen I'm not sure that's true. Assuming neither blows out an arm and even if Cease ends up in the bullpen you're talking about a closer with ridiculous stuff vs probably a #3 starter best case. Think most front offices would take an elite closer type over say Shark or a Cashner type arm and both Shark and Cashner probably have better pure stuff than Alzolay.

Not sure. Shark got it up to 97 but lacked a breaking pitch. Cashner hit 98 in short stints but worked 94-95 as a starter. Alzolay works 92-95 topping at 97. So a tick below both. Fastball has run. Has a legit curve which Shark never had.

All he rally needs to do is perfect his change and he could end up a fringe 100 pitcher.

 

[beckdawg]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017...-will-likely-retain-matt-harvey-for-2018.html

looks like this is all a moot point

 

[TC in Mississippi]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017...-will-likely-retain-matt-harvey-for-2018.html

looks like this is all a moot point

I don't necessarily believe him. That's a lot of money whether they're going full rebuild (which I doubt) or try to plug their holes. It would be pretty dumb to bring him back unless they are sure he'll be a lot better.

 

[CSF77]

I don't necessarily believe him. That's a lot of money whether they're going full rebuild (which I doubt) or try to plug their holes. It would be pretty dumb to bring him back unless they are sure he'll be a lot better.

I get where they are at. Right now he has lost his bargaining power in arb. So he will make a uptick. Thus cutting him mid season at worse case. Trading best case.