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beckdawg

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It is Beane so there is a chance, but Kyle buys you no Sonny. He's just a starting point in an offer for Gray.

I think Gray is largely overrated honestly. He's a good pitcher but I don't think he's an elite pitcher. He's IMO anyways a similar level pitcher to Miller.
 

brett05

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CSF77

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Well I wouldn't trade Kyle Schwarber for Sonny Gray and I don't think this FO wants to do that either. As far as Soler or Baez go, why not? Boobaby brings up a good example with Theo trading Ramirez and Sanchez for guys that helped them win a WS. Nobody in Boston pined for those guys or threw up as far as I know. When you're talking top talent for top talent, especially when it's young talent for experience, you're not looking to win every deal. The only reason Russell and McKinney for Samardzija looks like a bad trade now is because Oakland didn't win. If they had gone on to win the World Series you would call that trade a cost of doing business.

That was a bad deal because they gave up 2 number 1 picks for a pitcher that was suspect. Up to that year his numbers were avg at best. That year was solid numbers but not wins in a result. Sure bad team but that same team supported Arrieta and Hendricks who got positive results. Bad luck? Not sure to be honest.

Add to it how Russell was a top 10 prospect in baseball you would expect a stronger major league player in return. That is why Bean was dumb to do the trade. If it was Cole Hamels coming back to Cueto then sure that is what you expect. Even then I didn't hear top 10 prospect involved in the deals that sent those 2 out.

Just bad business decisions based off of panic.
 

CSF77

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Sonny dominates him in every single measurable and has done so all in the AL. The two are not close.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/millesh01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/grayso01.shtml

Maybe true but what is his worth? If it is a deal centered around Baez and Vogelbach I can see that. It doesn't hurt the Cubs going forward. If they add a SP prospect like Jake Stinnett or Rob Zastyzny it would be fair from the Cubs end. From the A's end not so sure. From what I've heard they have not intention of selling Grey. Mostly due to they don't need to.

At the end of the day I wouldn't push the panic button and get forced into trading any piece that I view as a every day player in a 2 year time window.
 

beckdawg

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Sonny dominates him in every single measurable and has done so all in the AL. The two are not close.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/millesh01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/grayso01.shtml

I don't really agree. Both had similar FIP's. Also, while he pitches in the AL he also pitches roughly half his games in Oakland which is huge. Either way, the fact of the matter is he strikes out fewer batters per 9 than Hendricks and walks more. I'll argue in favor of Hendricks often but most disagree with me and if you're talking about giving up giving up a bat like Schwarber for him that's entirely nuts to me. I think Salazar ends up a better pitcher over the next 4-5 years assuming both are healthy and there's no where near that sort of talk on his cost.
 

TC in Mississippi

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That was a bad deal because they gave up 2 number 1 picks for a pitcher that was suspect. Up to that year his numbers were avg at best. That year was solid numbers but not wins in a result. Sure bad team but that same team supported Arrieta and Hendricks who got positive results. Bad luck? Not sure to be honest.

Add to it how Russell was a top 10 prospect in baseball you would expect a stronger major league player in return. That is why Bean was dumb to do the trade. If it was Cole Hamels coming back to Cueto then sure that is what you expect. Even then I didn't hear top 10 prospect involved in the deals that sent those 2 out.

Just bad business decisions based off of panic.

Again I think that's hindsight. Samardzija was very good for them and outside of 2 very bad starts so was Hammel. They had not won a World Series in 23 years and they had a commanding lead in their division at the time of the trade. Russell was a year away and McKinney several years away. Based on where the Cubs were it was an absolute steal for them but I maintain that if the A's had won the World Series it would have been worth it on their end. They are a team that has to pick at the edges to compete and 2014 looked like the best shot they would get for years. You want to pick a bad trade for them last year? I would argue the Cespedes trade was far worse. Beane failed to recognize that he was a player that held the whole thing together. It's the flaw in Beane's ointment as far as I'm concerned. He struggles to see the human element in the game.
 

Parade_Rain

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Again I think that's hindsight. Samardzija was very good for them and outside of 2 very bad starts so was Hammel. They had not won a World Series in 23 years and they had a commanding lead in their division at the time of the trade. Russell was a year away and McKinney several years away. Based on where the Cubs were it was an absolute steal for them but I maintain that if the A's had won the World Series it would have been worth it on their end. They are a team that has to pick at the edges to compete and 2014 looked like the best shot they would get for years. You want to pick a bad trade for them last year? I would argue the Cespedes trade was far worse. Beane failed to recognize that he was a player that held the whole thing together. It's the flaw in Beane's ointment as far as I'm concerned. He struggles to see the human element in the game.
It's interesting you say that about Cespedes. I have an associate who is brilliant. I love his analysis and work with stats. So much makes sense, yet I hold the position that trading away Cespedes was the problem and he points at the stats and says "nope". :D
 

beckdawg

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It's interesting you say that about Cespedes. I have an associate who is brilliant. I love his analysis and work with stats. So much makes sense, yet I hold the position that trading away Cespedes was the problem and he points at the stats and says "nope". :D

I mean they made the playoffs that year. Are the were the Mets really a better team than the cubs or did they just play them at the right time? I'd just label it as a case of #playoffs. Also, KC was probably a better team than people realized given they won the world series this year after making it last year. If there was a flaw in Beane's plan it was that he seemingly couldn't really afford to sustain that team over a couple of years. I can admire his ability to build teams with almost nothing but I do wonder if they wouldn't be better served tanking some to build up some high profile talent in their minors rather than the continual decent but not great teams they are able to put out.
 

TC in Mississippi

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It's interesting you say that about Cespedes. I have an associate who is brilliant. I love his analysis and work with stats. So much makes sense, yet I hold the position that trading away Cespedes was the problem and he points at the stats and says "nope". :D

From a statistical standpoint he's right. I can't make that Cespedes case statistically but that A's team looked like a different group after that trade. I'm a stats guy all the way up to the point where I have trust what I see. That's why I'm happy that the Cubs front office seems to have a similar bent.
 

DanTown

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Tough to see Zimmerman sign a fairly team friendly priced deal and the Cubs not be in on him. 110 million means he's roughly a 15 WAR pitcher over the course of the deal to break even and I thought Zimmerman could do that and potentially exceed that value in the first few years (when the Cubs SP is a little light in the middle). My hope is the Cubs go in on Cueto (or potentially Grienke) if they passed on Zimmerman.

The interesting decision will be what the Cubs do to solve the lead-off "issue". Will tell me a lot about what they think of Russell if they don't go after Zobrist or Heyward.
 

TC in Mississippi

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Tough to see Zimmerman sign a fairly team friendly priced deal and the Cubs not be in on him. 110 million means he's roughly a 15 WAR pitcher over the course of the deal to break even and I thought Zimmerman could do that and potentially exceed that value in the first few years (when the Cubs SP is a little light in the middle). My hope is the Cubs go in on Cueto (or potentially Grienke) if they passed on Zimmerman.

The interesting decision will be what the Cubs do to solve the lead-off "issue". Will tell me a lot about what they think of Russell if they don't go after Zobrist or Heyward.

Cueto is going to cost a lot more, maybe 6/$144 or so. To me if you start going that high you look to Greinke. I think the Cubs looked at Zimmermann's loss of velocity and didn't like the value. Samardzija projects to have virtually identical numbers to Zimmermann in 2016 and can be had at a much better cost and is showing no signs of losing velocity. Zimmermann has lost a full 1 MPH on average since 2013 and these numbers aren't promising either:

Jordan Zimmermann
Pitches clocked 95.0 MPH/faster

2012 236
2013 272
2014 159
2015 31

94.0/faster
2012 883
2013 987
2014 928
2015 296

I didn't do that work so I don't have Samardzija's numbers for the same period but his average velocity in 2015 was higher and his K/9 in an awful year wasn't far off from Zimmermann's and his career K/9 is higher. Not to mention the track record of decline in pitchers who have had TJ surgery. If the Cubs are thinking that Samardzija can be had at 5/$75 or 5/$80 then you can see why didn't sign Zimmermann.
 

brett05

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Maybe true but what is his worth? If it is a deal centered around Baez and Vogelbach I can see that. It doesn't hurt the Cubs going forward. If they add a SP prospect like Jake Stinnett or Rob Zastyzny it would be fair from the Cubs end. From the A's end not so sure. From what I've heard they have not intention of selling Grey. Mostly due to they don't need to.

At the end of the day I wouldn't push the panic button and get forced into trading any piece that I view as a every day player in a 2 year time window.
I'm not saying you trade Kyle at all. I am saying he's way more valuable than Miller and Kyle individually.
 

brett05

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I don't really agree. Both had similar FIP's. Also, while he pitches in the AL he also pitches roughly half his games in Oakland which is huge. Either way, the fact of the matter is he strikes out fewer batters per 9 than Hendricks and walks more. I'll argue in favor of Hendricks often but most disagree with me and if you're talking about giving up giving up a bat like Schwarber for him that's entirely nuts to me. I think Salazar ends up a better pitcher over the next 4-5 years assuming both are healthy and there's no where near that sort of talk on his cost.

Gray is nearly a half a run better playing in the AL. That's huge. Gray has the better k/9 but only slightly. Gray is actually better away than at home.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=grayso01&year=Career&t=p



As for Hendricks, he has no where near the track record of Gray and no one outside of the Cubs "kingdom" would value Hendricks in the same light as Gray.

Kyle is a nice bat, but offers no more and in reality we aren't sure what his bat will be going forward. Where as Gray you know you have an ace in him already.
 

Parade_Rain

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From a statistical standpoint he's right. I can't make that Cespedes case statistically but that A's team looked like a different group after that trade. I'm a stats guy all the way up to the point where I have trust what I see. That's why I'm happy that the Cubs front office seems to have a similar bent.
Agreed. The case that is made is "statistically" Cespedes wasn't anything special, except for his second half with the Mets. :D
 

TC in Mississippi

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Gray is nearly a half a run better playing in the AL. That's huge. Gray has the better k/9 but only slightly. Gray is actually better away than at home.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=grayso01&year=Career&t=p



As for Hendricks, he has no where near the track record of Gray and no one outside of the Cubs "kingdom" would value Hendricks in the same light as Gray.

Kyle is a nice bat, but offers no more and in reality we aren't sure what his bat will be going forward. Where as Gray you know you have an ace in him already.

Well I think Schwarber is a truly special bat and I think he can be better in LF than people think but we'll all see on that. My crystal ball doesn't work all that well.

As far as Hendricks goes I don't understand the love. I'm not a fan of limited "stuff" pitchers as a whole as so few of them have succeeded. If Hendricks doesn't have nearly perfect command he can get roughed up and if the command ever goes for a period of time he'll be useless. As #4 starter he's fine and if he continues to show that he can have pinpoint command over the majority of his starts he maybe can be a #3. That's his ceiling though.

As far as Gray. The numbers are very good and more importantly I've watched him pitch. There are only a handful of starters in either league I'd want over him and those include guys like Kershaw, Price, Sale, Greinke, Arrieta and the like.
 

FrankieLyrical

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Hendricks is no where near as good as Gray, WTF.
 

CSF77

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Meanwhile, the Cubs probably only have the financial firepower to add about $20MM to their annual payroll this winter. Sources tell Rosenthal that the club’s payroll will be in the $130-140MM range for the foreseeable future. Based on the numbers at Cot’s Contracts and MLBTR’s arbitration projections, the Cubs are a bit over $110MM in 2016 when including league-minimum players. That leaves some wiggle room for two adds, but probably not if one of those players is Price or Zack Greinke. Rosenthal notes that the Cubs could add a young pitcher via trade, possibly for Jorge Soler. That wouldn’t impact payroll much in the near-term and would free the club to pursue Heyward or Alex Gordon to reduce the team’s overall strikeout rate (and improve the outfield defense).
 

brett05

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Meanwhile, the Cubs probably only have the financial firepower to add about $20MM to their annual payroll this winter. Sources tell Rosenthal that the club’s payroll will be in the $130-140MM range for the foreseeable future. Based on the numbers at Cot’s Contracts and MLBTR’s arbitration projections, the Cubs are a bit over $110MM in 2016 when including league-minimum players. That leaves some wiggle room for two adds, but probably not if one of those players is Price or Zack Greinke. Rosenthal notes that the Cubs could add a young pitcher via trade, possibly for Jorge Soler. That wouldn’t impact payroll much in the near-term and would free the club to pursue Heyward or Alex Gordon to reduce the team’s overall strikeout rate (and improve the outfield defense).
That basically means no Price, Grienke, Cueto, or Shark possibly. I am totally floored if this is true.
 

TC in Mississippi

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Meanwhile, the Cubs probably only have the financial firepower to add about $20MM to their annual payroll this winter. Sources tell Rosenthal that the club’s payroll will be in the $130-140MM range for the foreseeable future. Based on the numbers at Cot’s Contracts and MLBTR’s arbitration projections, the Cubs are a bit over $110MM in 2016 when including league-minimum players. That leaves some wiggle room for two adds, but probably not if one of those players is Price or Zack Greinke. Rosenthal notes that the Cubs could add a young pitcher via trade, possibly for Jorge Soler. That wouldn’t impact payroll much in the near-term and would free the club to pursue Heyward or Alex Gordon to reduce the team’s overall strikeout rate (and improve the outfield defense).

I think Rosenthal is probably about right for 2016 but another season like 2015, combined with higher ticket prices and I think he might be low as far as the coming years based on more local reporting. I'd expect them to get to, or awfully close, to $140 mil in 2016 which is what I said the other day. If they do trade for a pitcher they could conceivable trade Castro and Hammel and save $17 mil in 2016. They could also non tender Wood and save $5 mil. So depending on what they do and who they move I'd say they have somewhere between $30 and $50 mil to spend this year. That should be enough to retool the team.

The thing Rosenthal doesn't mention though, and again has been reported locally, is that the TV deal is likely to be signed sometime in 2017 and could structured to give them a revenue boost immediately. Yes there are debt service limits to consider but there are additional revenue streams coming all the time. I'd be surprised if they get outspent by the Cardinals every year. This year? Maybe.
 

DanTown

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Cubs may have some limits for this year in terms of adding contracts but here's what they have coming off soon

After 2016
Hammel - 7 million
Jackson - 13 million

After 2017
Montero - 14 million

But this gets back to what I've said a lot: if the payroll isn't going above 140, that means Montero is costing you 10% of your payroll and if the Cubs want Schwarber to catch part time, Montero is a part time player, batting seventh, costing you 10% of your payroll. I'm not saying what Montero does is meaningless or easy to find but if the money going to Monetro means you can't get a Cueto or Grienke, I struggle so see how you're better off. I'd MUCH rather have a TOR arm + good defensive catcher who doesn't hit than Montero+Shark.
 

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