You're the GM (Game)

[Hammer]

With all moves done, IMO, this team is one TOR starting pitcher away (acquired by the Trade deadline) from being by far the main favorite for a World series title.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

With all moves done, IMO, this team is one TOR starting pitcher away (acquired by the Trade deadline) from being by far the main favorite for a World series title.

They are likely the favorite without acquiring another TOR starter as they have by far the best offense in the NL and probably somewhere between the third and fifth best rotation. Still, I do want to see a trade at the deadline to shore the rotation up even further.

 

[brett05]

They are likely the favorite without acquiring another TOR starter as they have by far the best offense in the NL and probably somewhere between the third and fifth best rotation. Still, I do want to see a trade at the deadline to shore the rotation up even further.

Actually they are tied or just behind or ahead depending on sources as the Giants to win the World Series.

 

[DanTown]

Actually they are tied or just behind or ahead depending on sources as the Giants to win the World Series.

http://espn.go.com/chalk/story/_/id...er-spring-training-favorites-win-world-series

win totals aren't WS odds. The Cubs are HEAVY betting favorites but once again, Vegas doesn't set lines based on prediction.

 

[MassHavoc]

http://espn.go.com/chalk/story/_/id...er-spring-training-favorites-win-world-series

win totals aren't WS odds. The Cubs are HEAVY betting favorites but once again, Vegas doesn't set lines based on prediction.

No they set lines based on what will get the most bets from the most people.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Actually they are tied or just behind or ahead depending on sources as the Giants to win the World Series.

There are lots of predictions out there. There are some that favor the Mets, some that favor the Dodgers but the vast majority do favor Chicago or SF and I'd say that's about right. My point was more about the rotation. I like the Mets, obviously, as the best rotation in the NL and probably in baseball, after that I'd put the Nationals and then a bunch of teams really, really close to each other in the Cubs, Cards, Giants, Diamondbacks and maybe Dodgers if Maeda is "Greinke light" as I've heard people refer to him as lately.

 

[brett05]

http://espn.go.com/chalk/story/_/id...er-spring-training-favorites-win-world-series

win totals aren't WS odds. The Cubs are HEAVY betting favorites but once again, Vegas doesn't set lines based on prediction.

As MH said, Vegas sets things based on getting 50/50 action. That is ALL they care about. The sooner you realize that, the better.

 

[DanTown]

As MH said, Vegas sets things based on getting 50/50 action. That is ALL they care about. The sooner you realize that, the better.

I know how odds+Vegas work. By what measure are you saying the Cubs aren't the WS favorites?

Pecota predicts the Cubs win 95 games and have the largest run differential in baseball. (AKA WS Favorites)

The Giants aren't even projected to win their division (thus their WS odds would be drastically lower).

Fangraphs has the Cubs at 18.5% to win the WS, 4% more than the Dodgers and those two teams again are the only teams that project with better than 10% to win the WS.

Again, by what made up measure are the Cubs NOT favorites? The general public (betting) has them as favorites and two computer projection systems (PECOTA and Fangraphs) has them as favorites.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I know how odds+Vegas work. By what measure are you saying the Cubs aren't the WS favorites?

I think he's talking about some recent pieces picking SF. I've seen them and SF is a contender, plus there a bit of Cubs fatigue in the media so people are going be making some contrarian picks.

 

[DanTown]

There are lots of predictions out there. There are some that favor the Mets, some that favor the Dodgers but the vast majority do favor Chicago or SF and I'd say that's about right. My point was more about the rotation. I like the Mets, obviously, as the best rotation in the NL and probably in baseball, after that I'd put the Nationals and then a bunch of teams really, really close to each other in the Cubs, Cards, Giants, Diamondbacks and maybe Dodgers if Maeda is "Greinke light" as I've heard people refer to him as lately.

This isn't even close to true in projections. Cubs are five times more likely to win the WS according to Fangraphs and Pecota doesn't even have the Giants winning the division. Results won't make any of that "right" or "wrong" but the Giants nor Mets are predicted to be anywhere close to the Cubs.

The Cubs are more likely to win the NLCS (30.7%) than either the Mets (28.9) or Giants (17.5) are likely to win the NLDS.

 

[DanTown]

I think he's talking about some recent pieces picking SF. I've seen them and SF is a contender, plus there a bit of Cubs fatigue in the media so people are going be making some contrarian picks.

If you want to say the opinion of six to ten people matters in determining a sample, you (and not you) obviously don't know stats or sampling. I'd say writers are the WORST group to sample because they obviously care about the optics of who they predict (i.e they don't all want to say Cubs or whatever to piss off major markets like LA, SF, and NY).

By by no objective measure (computer projections) or subjective projections (Vegas lines) are the Cubs not overwhelming WS favorites. That's a fact. Cubs fans are Cubs fans so they're scared of the past but like Joe says, embrace the target.

 

[brett05]

If you want to say the opinion of six to ten people matters in determining a sample, you (and not you) obviously don't know stats or sampling. I'd say writers are the WORST group to sample because they obviously care about the optics of who they predict (i.e they don't all want to say Cubs or whatever to piss off major markets like LA, SF, and NY).

By no objective (Vegas lines) OR subjective matter (projection models) are the Cubs not overwhelming WS favorites. That's a fact. Cubs fans are Cubs fans so they're scared of the past but like Joe says, embrace the target.

You claim to know Vegas odds and then write the bold. It makes it very difficult to take what you write seriously.

 

[brett05]

I think he's talking about some recent pieces picking SF. I've seen them and SF is a contender, plus there a bit of Cubs fatigue in the media so people are going be making some contrarian picks.

Likewise many will pick the Cubs because of the story it provides. The two teams on paper (worthless) are very competitive.

 

[brett05]

I'd also make many NL teams favorite over the AL teams because of the much easier path they have this coming year.

 

[DanTown]

You claim to know Vegas odds and then write the bold. It makes it very difficult to take what you write seriously.

Mostly because it was a typo.

Objective = computer projections
Subjective = Vegas lines

You still haven't given an answer to the "other group" claiming different favorites than the Cubs.

 

[brett05]

Mostly because it was a typo.

Objective = computer projections
Subjective = Vegas lines

You still haven't given an answer to the "other group" claiming different favorites than the Cubs.

TC handled it.

 

[DanTown]

TC handled it.

So the Cubs are favorites among the public (vegas lines) and the projections that are released to the public (Pecota and Fangraphs) but they're not the favorites due a sampling on an unknown number of writers who haven't released their picks?

It sucks I can't block posters like that.

 

[Omeletpants]

I know how odds+Vegas work. By what measure are you saying the Cubs aren't the WS favorites?

Pecota predicts the Cubs win 95 games and have the largest run differential in baseball. (AKA WS Favorites)

The Giants aren't even projected to win their division (thus their WS odds would be drastically lower).

Fangraphs has the Cubs at 18.5% to win the WS, 4% more than the Dodgers and those two teams again are the only teams that project with better than 10% to win the WS.

Again, by what made up measure are the Cubs NOT favorites? The general public (betting) has them as favorites and two computer projection systems (PECOTA and Fangraphs) has them as favorites.

Who cares what the betters say or the odds. Why is this always some sort of pride issue for fans?

 

[Parade_Rain]

Who cares what the betters say or the odds. Why is this always some sort of pride issue for fans?

Most of them must be dicklickers!

 

[DanTown]

Who cares what the betters say or the odds. Why is this always some sort of pride issue for fans?

I don't give two fucks what the odds are but when someone says "the Cubs aren't favorites", I'd like it if it was backed up by some sort of data somewhere.

The Cubs are favorites (by any measure you want to use) and have the best roster in baseball (by whatever measure you want to use).

Whether they win or not remains to be seen but there isn't a team out there I'd rather have than the Cubs 1-40.