1st RD QB does not = SB Ring

BearsFan51

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You want a real tangible statistic about QBs and Super Bowls?

44 of the 51 Super Bowl STARTING QBs have included one Hall of Fame QB or one LIKELY future Hall of Fame QB and a few that are sure fire Hall of Fame QBs like Brady Manning Brees Big Ben and Rodgers.

You want to make it to the Super Bowl? Better find your Hall of Fame caliber QB.
 

airtime143

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In the last ten years only one QB taken in the first rd has won a SB... that super super elite qb name is Joe Flacco...

using your same criteria-

In the past 10 years, only 1 qb taken out of the first round has won a super bowl. Wilson.

And it took having the number 1 scoring defense to get him there. He also missed out on MVP- he lost out to an OLB.

By contrast, Joe Flacco overcame the handicap of having the 25th ranked defense on his way to claiming the Super Bowl MVP.


Back to your main point- Of QBs selected in the past 10 years, there is one first round qb to win a championship and one "non-first round" QB to win one.

There is one first round. There are 6 rounds following that.
Since there has been 1 first rounder and 1 non first rounder from the last 10 years to win a super bowl, then a logical statement would be "You are 6 times more likely to win a super bowl with a first round QB over the past 10 years".

Do you disagree with that statement?
 

Washington

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In the last 20 Super Bowls a first 1st round Qb appeared 21 times.

1996 Drew Bledsoe
1997 John Elway
1998 John Elway
1999 Steve McNair
2000 Trent Dilfer & Kerry Collins
2001 None
2002 None
2003 None
2004 Donovan McNabb
2005 Ben Roethlisberger
2006 Peyton Manning & Rex Grossman
2007 Eli Manning
2008 Ben Roethlisberger
2009 Peyton Manning
2010 Aaron Rodgers & Ben Roethlisberger
2011 Eli Manning
2012 Joe Flacco
2013 Peyton Manning
2014 None
2015 Peyton Manning & Cam Newton
2016 Matt Ryan

Good stuff here. Well done! Sure looks like the odds of making it to the SB are higher with a QB drafted in the 1st. I like those odds. Once there, anything can happen.
 

JUSTWIN

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The draft is a probability game with the percentage of success going down with each round. I bet that the probability is still higher in round 1 to find a SB winning QB.
 

Outlaw Josey Cutler

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someone kind of gets it... you mention TEAM... it is a team game... qb is just a part of the whole... sb winning qbs can be had in the first or not... its not the end all be all.. build a team..

Again you are not wrong here, as long as you realize that QB is the BIGGEST part of the whole and the data shows that no matter where they were picked SB winning QBs played at a very high level in the years they won (Dilfer and Johnson and their type being outliers to the line of best fit).

Round 1 or Round 3 or 6 or UFA doesn't matter to how well they played (which is your point and the correct part). Your implication is that no QB need be taken in the 1st round this year, and that has yet to be determined or proven though.

We could have Allen/Hooker/Trubisky/Kizer/Garrett maybe even .... when those of us lobby for a QB we opine:

1. There is elite level potential in the pick.
2. Other defensive picks may be #1 at their position but there are also likely candidates for similar or even better production from value picks down the line.
3. No one defensive position is as important as QB to the overall success of any team.

Some may see a pick like Allen or Hooker as being more worthy than any of the QBs due to their flaws and that's not entirely unreasonable. But often during their defense of the pick, they make statements or make implications that severely overblow the one D lineman or S in value compared to a high level producing QB.

No single position on D that is producing at a high level is equal in value to a QB that is producing at a high level. That's just simply the nature of the game. Anyone is certainly free to advocate for all defense and tank another year for next year's big swing at top 5 QB and new HC (I sometimes find myself leaning that way in my mind, Halas forgive me). But some either ignore the value accorded to each position in football when they try to justify Hooker or Allen or (insert D player) over QB or they get it wrong when they compare the values of QB to any position on D.
 

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