2013 Draft Watch

[dabynsky]

Baseball America probably has a really early 2013 list.

Yeah that would probably the best guess for a place that would have such a list, but it might even be early for that.

 

[Rice Cube]

I don't think you'll have a good handle on who is available until you see which guys who were drafted before but elected to go to school come back in, which college guys elected not to sign this year but might next year, etc.

Usually the lists don't get solidified until late-April. MLB.com will publish their list around then, and the various baseball blogs will also release their scouting reports. That's about it. The point here, though, is that if you suck, you might as well go for the first overall pick so you have first choice each round and you also have the most money to spend per spot.

 

[dabynsky]

I don't think you'll have a good handle on who is available until you see which guys who were drafted before but elected to go to school come back in, which college guys elected not to sign this year but might next year, etc.

Usually the lists don't get solidified until late-April. MLB.com will publish their list around then, and the various baseball blogs will also release their scouting reports. That's about it. The point here, though, is that if you suck, you might as well go for the first overall pick so you have first choice each round and you also have the most money to spend per spot.

And have the most money to spend on international amateurs as well. The bonus pool this year is equal, but next year it will be based upon reverse standings. So there are definite tangible benefits to sucking hard enough to finish last place this year.

 

[Rice Cube]

We're #1! :woot:

 

[Jntg4]

#1 :yeah:

 

[Rice Cube]

2012 Major League Baseball Standings & Expanded Standings - Baseball-Reference.com

Cubs have a cushion! :beerbang:

 

[dabynsky]

Cubs Den has this early look at some guys to keep an eye on for the 2013 draft.

 

[Rice Cube]

We're #1 again! :woot:

Cubs half-game up on San Diego

 

[Rice Cube]

Should be 1.5 games up now...hopefully they start gathering new info about the draft prospects for next season.

 

[2SeamHeat]

Cubs Den has this early look at some guys to keep an eye on for the 2013 draft.

It's a little early for 2013. Many of the high school possibilities will play basketball and football. Like my personal misfortune, some will end their prospective careers by getting injured in these other sports. Plus, guys fizzle from time to time... and other guys suddenly rush out to the forefront.

There is a decent guess value as to college sophomores and juniors... and JuCo kids. But again, it's best to wait until at least April on these guys.

 

[Rice Cube]

It's a little early for 2013. Many of the high school possibilities will play basketball and football. Like my personal misfortune, some will end their prospective careers by getting injured in these other sports. Plus, guys fizzle from time to time... and other guys suddenly rush out to the forefront.

There is a decent guess value as to college sophomores and juniors... and JuCo kids. But again, it's best to wait until at least April on these guys.

I'm sure the various franchises are already gathering their info to this point but the independent scouting reports are probably closer to the April timeline you quoted.

 

[2SeamHeat]

I'm sure the various franchises are already gathering their info to this point but the independent scouting reports are probably closer to the April timeline you quoted.

Well, of course those that actually get paid for that kind of stuff are preparing for next season... watching guys in the summer leagues, etc. However, for those like us... and the prognosticators... it seems a bit naive to jump the ship now. Especially when there are a number of guys that were drafted this year that may not sign... and end up being on that watch list in a few weeks. Though, I do understand the compelling notion of trying to get an idea of things now.

 

[Rice Cube]

One of the theories that I've happened upon stems from the Astros' strategy where they underslotted the #1 pick and then used the savings to sign tougher picks down the line, so it might be interesting to see if the Cubs follow that rubric if they indeed suck enough to snag the #1 pick next year.

 

[2SeamHeat]

One of the theories that I've happened upon stems from the Astros' strategy where they underslotted the #1 pick and then used the savings to sign tougher picks down the line, so it might be interesting to see if the Cubs follow that rubric if they indeed suck enough to snag the #1 pick next year.

Interesting technique, especially with the talent they already have in their system.

I have the sneaking suspicion that if the Cubs end up with the #1 pick next year... it's going to be Appel.

 

[Rice Cube]

Interesting technique, especially with the talent they already have in their system.

I have the sneaking suspicion that if the Cubs end up with the #1 pick next year... it's going to be Appel.

I guess that would depend on whether Appel gives in and signs this year. And also, if he decides to be a Borasshole and go back to school, whether he remains healthy and effective. I think with the #1 pick though, you pick best player available and just give him all the slot $ you can (or can reasonably play hardball for). If he's Strasburg or Harper quality, you just throw everything at him, damn the torpedoes

 

[2SeamHeat]

I guess that would depend on whether Appel gives in and signs this year. And also, if he decides to be a Borasshole and go back to school, whether he remains healthy and effective. I think with the #1 pick though, you pick best player available and just give him all the slot $ you can (or can reasonably play hardball for). If he's Strasburg or Harper quality, you just throw everything at him, damn the torpedoes

All true... and we don't know what other possible prospects might step up and make big names of themselves either. This is assuming that Appel doesn't sign... and I'm kind of going off of the comments from MacLeod the other day saying they would have selected Appel if they thought they could have signed him, but the current CBA rules kept that from being truly possible. If they get the top pick next year, they'll also have the top amount of cash.

 

[dabynsky]

The Astros situation was a little different though in the sense that a lot of people had Correra as the best available player and was willing to sign for way underslot. I doubt the Cubs get lucky like that. I am sure signability will play into whom the Cubs draft as I am sure it did this season.

 

[Rice Cube]

The strategy to loophole the CBA seems to be to sign the best guys in the top 5 rounds (plus sandwich rounds) and then sign the next five rounds for peanuts before splurging again on the 11-40 rounds when there are no penalties for not signing a pick. I doubt they can close the loophole before next draft so I'd expect the Cubs to try something like that again.

 

[dabynsky]

Yeah every team seemed to employ some variation on take best guys you can from rounds 1-mid first 10 rounds and then last couple rounds sign college seniors that will sign for 10K or less.

 

[Rice Cube]

Assuming that the Padres can't blow a four-run ninth-inning lead, the Cubs are now a game ahead for the #1 pick.