- Joined:
- Jul 31, 2010
- Posts:
- 4,967
- Liked Posts:
- 697
I believe this means that all the top 10 picks have been signed, right?
I believe this means that all the top 10 picks have been signed, right?
- Joined:
- Apr 16, 2013
- Posts:
- 21,848
- Liked Posts:
- 9,042
I think top 21 picks have been signed
beckdawg
Well-known member
- Joined:
- Oct 31, 2012
- Posts:
- 11,750
- Liked Posts:
- 3,741
If true about Cease, I think this draft class could be a home run that many people don't really realize yet. People obviously weren't thrilled with Schwarber at the time. I'll be honest I was kind of meh on the idea myself though I could see why they would want an advanced hitter. I'd been saying leading up to the draft I wouldn't be surprised if they avoided pitching. What I didn't realize was how crazy good Schwarber's k/bb rates were. I mentioned this earlier in the huge by the numbers thing. What I didn't realize until then was the type of company that possibly puts him in. I mean as I was writing it I saw the low K rate and high bb rate and literally thought.... wow this is going to bring up some good names with his kind of power.... and it did.
Anyways, if he is a 10%+ walk rate and 18% or lower k rate he's probably going to be a pretty special player even as a LF. People just don't do that anymore in terms of not striking out. Of the 140 qualified position players last year only 82 struck out at an 18% or lower. Of those 82, only 19 walked at a 10% or better clip. And finally of those 19 players, 11 hit 20 or more homers. Those 11 players were Miguel Cabrera(7.6 WAR), Edwin Encarnacion(4.1 WAR), David Ortiz(3.8 WAR), Jose Bautista(4.2 WAR), Troy Tulowitzki(5.5 WAR), Prince Fielder(2.2 WAR), Josh Donaldson(7.7 WAR), Matt Holliday(4.5 WAR), Coco Crisp(3.9 WAR), Andrew McCutchen(8.2 WAR), and Carlos Santana(3.6 WAR). Additionally, I don't even think I'm embellishing what he is. In Kane he currently has a 14.6%/17.1% bb/k rate in 10 games. In Boise it was 8.3%/8.3% in 5 games. In 3 years of college it was 11.1%/8.9%, 14.9%/13.2%, 15.7%/10.7% over a 60 game season. Walk rate isn't really something that craters as you move up the minor league chain. For example, Bryant who is perhaps a more polished hitter went for 10.4% in Kane and 14.5% and 12.1% in AA/AAA. Perhaps you can argue he will strike out more but frankly, giving him 18% is already a high level for what he did in college. That 17.1% is over 10 games in Kane. His next highest level was 13.2% his Soph. season in college. It's kind of funny because in the by the numbers topic I did you can sort of see this "oh" realization moment in the way I typed because I started by saying I'm not sure he should be this high and then I get down to the player comparison part and I'm like... ok he's probably going to get really good player comparisons.
As for Cease, Klaw had this to say
Tommy John is always worrying but often times teams prefer players to have it earlier rather then mid cycle in their development. Assuming he comes back you're talking about a guy who touches 97 with a potential plus curve, an average change up and average control. If Cease and Schwarber pan out you're probably talking about a great draft right there because the peak for Schwarber is so obvious and Cease might be a 1/2 type if he's healthy. Sands is probably more of a 3-5 if he works out based on the scouting reports I've seen. Jake Stinnett is probably slightly more. James Norwood has a good fastball but may be a bullpen arm. Justin Steele looks some what similar to Sands. Mark Zagunis looks more like a back up C or non-first division starter. The rest is probably projects more than likely. However, if they managed to some how sign Isiah Gilliam he'd be another interesting option though given they gave Cease reportedly $1.5 mil I don't think they have much if anything left.
Anyways, if he is a 10%+ walk rate and 18% or lower k rate he's probably going to be a pretty special player even as a LF. People just don't do that anymore in terms of not striking out. Of the 140 qualified position players last year only 82 struck out at an 18% or lower. Of those 82, only 19 walked at a 10% or better clip. And finally of those 19 players, 11 hit 20 or more homers. Those 11 players were Miguel Cabrera(7.6 WAR), Edwin Encarnacion(4.1 WAR), David Ortiz(3.8 WAR), Jose Bautista(4.2 WAR), Troy Tulowitzki(5.5 WAR), Prince Fielder(2.2 WAR), Josh Donaldson(7.7 WAR), Matt Holliday(4.5 WAR), Coco Crisp(3.9 WAR), Andrew McCutchen(8.2 WAR), and Carlos Santana(3.6 WAR). Additionally, I don't even think I'm embellishing what he is. In Kane he currently has a 14.6%/17.1% bb/k rate in 10 games. In Boise it was 8.3%/8.3% in 5 games. In 3 years of college it was 11.1%/8.9%, 14.9%/13.2%, 15.7%/10.7% over a 60 game season. Walk rate isn't really something that craters as you move up the minor league chain. For example, Bryant who is perhaps a more polished hitter went for 10.4% in Kane and 14.5% and 12.1% in AA/AAA. Perhaps you can argue he will strike out more but frankly, giving him 18% is already a high level for what he did in college. That 17.1% is over 10 games in Kane. His next highest level was 13.2% his Soph. season in college. It's kind of funny because in the by the numbers topic I did you can sort of see this "oh" realization moment in the way I typed because I started by saying I'm not sure he should be this high and then I get down to the player comparison part and I'm like... ok he's probably going to get really good player comparisons.
As for Cease, Klaw had this to say
Tommy John is always worrying but often times teams prefer players to have it earlier rather then mid cycle in their development. Assuming he comes back you're talking about a guy who touches 97 with a potential plus curve, an average change up and average control. If Cease and Schwarber pan out you're probably talking about a great draft right there because the peak for Schwarber is so obvious and Cease might be a 1/2 type if he's healthy. Sands is probably more of a 3-5 if he works out based on the scouting reports I've seen. Jake Stinnett is probably slightly more. James Norwood has a good fastball but may be a bullpen arm. Justin Steele looks some what similar to Sands. Mark Zagunis looks more like a back up C or non-first division starter. The rest is probably projects more than likely. However, if they managed to some how sign Isiah Gilliam he'd be another interesting option though given they gave Cease reportedly $1.5 mil I don't think they have much if anything left.
- Joined:
- May 17, 2010
- Posts:
- 13,947
- Liked Posts:
- 3,118
Top 22 have signed. A few after as well, but none of the big names past that point.
- Joined:
- May 17, 2010
- Posts:
- 13,947
- Liked Posts:
- 3,118
No this your draft class that is signed right now. The Cubs at most have a hundred K or two to throw around and that doesn't net any of the potential impact guys on day 3.
chibears55
Well-known member
- Joined:
- Apr 18, 2013
- Posts:
- 13,554
- Liked Posts:
- 1,915
@jimcallisMLB: 6th-rder Dylan Cease has signed w/@Cubs for $1.5 million. Pick value at 169 was $269,500. More in a second. @MLBDraft
@NewDylancease7: Officially signed with the Chicago Cubs organization! So honored! Thank you to my family, friends, coaches and supporters!
@NewDylancease7: Officially signed with the Chicago Cubs organization! So honored! Thank you to my family, friends, coaches and supporters!
- Joined:
- May 17, 2010
- Posts:
- 13,947
- Liked Posts:
- 3,118
Has Tommy John scheduled for July 22nd.
- Joined:
- Apr 16, 2013
- Posts:
- 21,848
- Liked Posts:
- 9,042
I read he is the 11 highest bonus baby for a HS pitcher.
chibears55
Well-known member
- Joined:
- Apr 18, 2013
- Posts:
- 13,554
- Liked Posts:
- 1,915
Shall see how this turns out in 4-5 yrs when he 22-23 YO