2015 Cubs Offseason Discussion

[Boobaby1]

Plus he really wasn;t all that good as far as I could see from his numbers.

Yeap! Nothing outstanding to me.

 

[beckdawg]

You've made some solid points in this thread and my opinions are probably closer to yours than they seem superficially. Some of the key differences are that I think the team as currently constituted is a little better than you think it is. You mentioned in a post that they only won 73 games and that they had a lot of things go right to get them there. I actually think they had a lot of things go wrong which held them back. This was a team that was essentially .500 from May on and that was with a horrific Edwin Jackson and a very bad Travis Wood in the rotation and significant injury injury time for both Castro and Rizzo. Jesse Rogers said in a piece a few weeks ago that he thought of them as essentially a 78 win team by the way they finished and I agree with that. I think Castro and Rizzo will both improve on their 2014 seasons in no small part to the addition of Soler for a full season and the expected addition of Bryant in late April. With all that said I think it's time for a statement piece to signal the beginning of "phase 2". I would have been OK with Martin as that piece at a decent price and I feel the same way about Lester.

The other thing is the difference between "contend" and "compete" I fully believe the FO when they say that they intend to compete in 2015. My definition of competing is being a potential buyer at the trade deadline, which with the 2 wild cards means .500 give or take in July. Add 2 starting pitchers, hopefully a TOR and a second tier guy to fill #1 & #3 in the rotation and I think they'll be a little better than that. Even without Lester that should still happen. August and September are the months where the pennant races get hot and often young players wilt under pressure. I fully expect that to happen for some of the young guys and it's one of the key reasons I don't expect them to "contend" which I would define as being a serious playoff threat. Now all that being said baseball is a funny game and tons of things can change. They could not be where I expect them to be in July, they could be better or they could make the key move we were all expecting this offseason at the trade deadline and momentum could turn them into contenders. I won't and don't ever try to predict those things. I think in those details is where we have more in common in what we think this team is than we have disagreements. They are not ready to win anything in 2015 and the only thing that will change that is the good favor of the baseball gods. I don't talk to them much. They do need to take a solid step though and that's why I thin a cornerstone piece is needed. Getting Lester could be that piece. Trading for a younger pitcher could also be that piece as could signing Kenta Maeda if he's posted. Right now I like the idea of Lester because all he cost is money (no picks or prospects), left handers have a better track record of actually maintaining or improving over 30 than right handers do and he would be a piece his teammates could get excited over.

I guess the bottom line is this would it be a disaster if the offseason yielded a guy like Masterson or McCarthy (neither costs a pick), Johnny Gomes and the recent trade for Tommy LaStella? No, but there would be disappointment inside and outside the organization. Signing Maddon raised a lot of hopes and I don't think it would take much to keep them high, but it also wouldn't take much to dash them in the short term. Just something to think about.

As for the first part about whether they were lucky or not I'll just put it this way. Let's say they get Lester. Let's say they get some other comp. piece. And finally let's say next season Rizzo or Castro goes down for 2 months. That's not a major injury. However, if that happens I think they are a team that is closer to mid 60 wins than a team that's closer to 75-80. In other words, I don't think next year's cubs will be a team that can sustain an injury and to me that's the difference between a team that has a real shot and a team that has to have a ton go their way in order to contend.

As for the disappointment, I'd like to see them set their sights higher frankly. Even if it's some what lower than I think is possible like say Mat Latos I feel that's a better use of resources. I think Latos is probably more of a good #2 and Lester at his best might be a mid to bottom tier #1 but I also believe you can get say 8 more years out of Latos. Presumably if you intend to re-sign someone like Latos you've addressed your issue for most of the next decade rather than having a 3-4 year fix and then struggle through the back end of a deal. Even if they can't get something done this offseason, there's always teams moving players at the deadline. I'm honestly not apposed to the "why not both" mentality either. But, I feel making a FA play when you're not already closer is wasting a lot of the "good years" on a deal. Even if you suggest they are closer to a 80 win team than a 70 win team I don't think Lester alone solidly puts you in the playoffs which is why I'm ambivalent to the concept of Lester.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

There are tons of different arguments to be made on all ends. Frankly given enough discussion and some flowing beer and tequila I could probably find something about all of them to embrace. I guess the thing for me is that I trust these guys, maybe more than I should, but in a town where you rarely see a fully formed plan from any of our sports teams this has been refreshing. If it fails I've developed enough of a teflon skin over the years not to get to down about it but my gut tells me it's not going to. I can make all sorts of logical arguments why I think it will work but it does come down to my gut and my amazement over how far they've come in 4 years (3 full seasons). The very fact that I give a single hoot about Cubs baseball in 2014 when I was about to pitch it all in the last Hendry/Quade year is a miracle in and of itself.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Here's a possible turn than no one would have thought of. The Tigers could be shopping David Price.

http://www.blessyouboys.com/2014/11/18/7240393/tigers-rumors-david-price-trade

Makes some sense for Scherzer if the Yankees really do stay home this offseason. Detroit is one of the few teams that would pay him especially considering neither Chicago or Boston seems particularly interested.

 

[chibears55]

Cardinals hired bill Mueller as their hitting coach...
I hope he has the same success there as he did with the Cubs
; ()

 

[JZsportsfan]

Here's a possible turn than no one would have thought of. The Tigers could be shopping David Price.

http://www.blessyouboys.com/2014/11/18/7240393/tigers-rumors-david-price-trade

Makes some sense for Scherzer if the Yankees really do stay home this offseason. Detroit is one of the few teams that would pay him especially considering neither Chicago or Boston seems particularly interested.

Considering they didn't really give up a lot , this makes sense.

Cubs believe Lester is returning to Boston according to some reports so maybe they will be in on him? Looks like the only way they will add a SP this winter is via trade, if the Yankees are indeed in on Scherzer

 

[Parade_Rain]

Cardinals hired bill Mueller as their hitting coach...
I hope he has the same success there as he did with the Cubs
; ()

That's interesting. I wonder what happened to Mabry.

 

[TL1961]

That's interesting. I wonder what happened to Mabry.

Mueller is Mabry's Asst hitting coach.

 

[Parade_Rain]

OK. That makes more sense. I didn't think Mabry was going anywhere.

 

[CSF77]

Considering they didn't really give up a lot , this makes sense.

Cubs believe Lester is returning to Boston according to some reports so maybe they will be in on him? Looks like the only way they will add a SP this winter is via trade, if the Yankees are indeed in on Scherzer

If it is legit that is. They would be buying 1 year of control so the cost would be much less. I'm thinking that Det would be looking at SP prospects in return. Cubs have been stock piling their system for 3 years in pitching and could have some potential arms that could be made available.

End of the day for 1 year of control they wouldn't have to give up one of their top 3. Almora would be as high as they would have to go.

 

[brett05]

If it is legit that is. They would be buying 1 year of control so the cost would be much less. I'm thinking that Det would be looking at SP prospects in return. Cubs have been stock piling their system for 3 years in pitching and could have some potential arms that could be made available.

End of the day for 1 year of control they wouldn't have to give up one of their top 3. Almora would be as high as they would have to go.

The Cubs don;t have the pitching prospects to land a TOR even if it is only for a year. Almora ain't getting Price, it would have to be a major spec as part of the deal.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

If it is legit that is. They would be buying 1 year of control so the cost would be much less. I'm thinking that Det would be looking at SP prospects in return. Cubs have been stock piling their system for 3 years in pitching and could have some potential arms that could be made available.

End of the day for 1 year of control they wouldn't have to give up one of their top 3. Almora would be as high as they would have to go.

I agree. The cost would be less and they would have a shot at negotiating before the other clubs. I mentioned elsewhere I think you might be looking at a Pierce Johnson or somebody like that, I might balk at CJ Edwards though, along with another prospect which should be do able. This FO really likes Almora or they want everyone else to think they do so whether he's a viable in that scenario I couldn't tell you. Bottom line is if Detroit signs Scherzer it's clear Price will be available but whether that's now or at the deadline is the question. You would think now because the price tag will be higher and if Detroit is in a tough pennant race trading Price for prospects would be a tough sell and then giving him up in FA would be a PR hit. They've gotta kick the tires on this because you know they want Price and he's probably within reach. I would appeal to the baseball gods that be and hope like heck the Yankees stay on the sidelines.

 

[CSF77]

The Cubs don;t have the pitching prospects to land a TOR even if it is only for a year. Almora ain't getting Price, it would have to be a major spec as part of the deal.

at the lower levels they have talent. Kane CO dominated with pitching that Theo and Jed aquired. There is no blue chip as of yet emerging but plenty of potential.

 

[brett05]

at the lower levels they have talent. Kane CO dominated with pitching that Theo and Jed aquired. There is no blue chip as of yet emerging but plenty of potential.

That kind of potential everyone has.

 

[CSF77]

That kind of potential everyone has.

The real question is what is Price worth in a trade?

He cost the Tigers: Austin Jackson, Drew Smyly and class A short stop Willy Adames. To get that the Tigers also had to send over Nick Franklin.

I believe the reality here is quality youth values are on the rise due to cost control factors. Teams are more and more trading out contract.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

The Cubs don;t have the pitching prospects to land a TOR even if it is only for a year. Almora ain't getting Price, it would have to be a major spec as part of the deal.

I don't think that's quite right, CJ Edwards would be a guy almost anyone would want but I also think he's the one pitching prospect the Cubs would not give up. Besdies that they have a lot of young arms that certain teams would want depending on independent scouting including guys like Pierce Johnson, Carson Sands, Jake Stinnett and others. Granted these are lower minor league arms but if they've caught the attention of a front office they could be part of a deal. Specifically for Price though you have to look at what the Tigers do in trades and they move a lot of infielders/multi position guys and power arms in and out. I wouldn't be sure that a package of say Pierce Johnson, Albert Almora and a high ceiling guy like Elroy Jimenez wouldn't get that done. That's a nice package for a one year rental and all of those guys are flippable for need. Those guys are all farther away then what they gave up for Price but Johnson has off shot of being up in 2015 and Almora projects for 2016 and although Jiminez is pretty far away he's also looked at as having the highest upside of any prospect outside of the Cubs top 3, he's also not the only guy close to that potential. All speculation but a means to say that I think there is a package that could pry Price from the Tigers if Scherzer signs particularly when you look at a pool of other suitors and what they have.

 

[CSF77]

http://m.tigers.mlb.com/news/articl...s-may-be-weighing-max-scherzer-or-david-price

Again, with Illitch involved, you don't rule anything out, but the simple math is that the Tigers' current top four starters are going to cost them roughly $76 million, factoring in raises for Verlander and Sanchez and MLB Trade Rumors' arbitration estimates for Price and Porcello next year. Add in the prices for Cabrera, Sanchez, Kinsler, Martinez, Joakim Soria, Alex Avila and Rajai Davis, and the Tigers are on the hook for more than $155 million for just 11 players.
Throw a Scherzer contract into that pile and you can forget about avoiding the luxury tax.
But what if you swap out Scherzer for Price? It would depend on how the Scherzer contract is structured and how much backloading is involved, but MLB.com's Jim Duquette estimated a seven-year, $185 million contract for Scherzer. If that's perfectly prorated, then he'd make $26.4 million for 2015. So you're looking at about a $7 million difference between Scherzer and Price in 2015 cost, and, hey, maybe that's too much for the Tigers to bear, given their bullpen needs, in particular.
Then again, if Price can bring back talent that, say, plugs a bullpen hole affordably and adds another young body to the Tigers' organizational outlook, maybe that $7 million difference is much more tolerable.
It remains to be seen how tangible any of this is, but it certainly gets you thinking, doesn't it? Because the fact of the matter is that there has not been a stampede on Scherzer, and, simultaneously, neither Boras nor the Tigers are completely ruling out a reunion.
It's enough to make you wonder if one of the many topics the Tigers are tackling this winter comes down to an interesting decision: Scherzer or Price?

So it looks like they have some bullpen holes going on. Guessing it would take 1 blue chip, 1 quality BP arm to fill the teams current needs to start. They have 4 proven MB starting pitchers already. Who knows the Cubs could send them back Turner's 1 year of control. BP arm would have to hurt. I'm thinking Ramirez as he has closer potential and the Cubs all ready have Rondon and Strop as the set up closer with Grimm as a solid 7th inning option. Add to it they still have a few ready options going on that may end up in AAA due to the log jam.

Blue chip: It would have to be Edwards. I can't see any ways around it. With his body weight he is a gamble for either team but he has TOR potential and a strong SO% running. He adds some body mass he becomes a top 10 RH pitching prospect.

 

[CSF77]

Well how about Wood (Cubs pay 1/2 his arb case), Edwards and Ramirez. Gives Wood a new opertunity and tigers would pay 2-3 mil for it. That nets a proven 5th starter. Edwards as the potential TOR prospect. Ramirez as a potential closer type at low cost. IMO that is a solid offer for 1 year of Price.

 

[brett05]

I don't think that's quite right, CJ Edwards would be a guy almost anyone would want but I also think he's the one pitching prospect the Cubs would not give up. Besdies that they have a lot of young arms that certain teams would want depending on independent scouting including guys like Pierce Johnson, Carson Sands, Jake Stinnett and others. Granted these are lower minor league arms but if they've caught the attention of a front office they could be part of a deal. Specifically for Price though you have to look at what the Tigers do in trades and they move a lot of infielders/multi position guys and power arms in and out. I wouldn't be sure that a package of say Pierce Johnson, Albert Almora and a high ceiling guy like Elroy Jimenez wouldn't get that done. That's a nice package for a one year rental and all of those guys are flippable for need. Those guys are all farther away then what they gave up for Price but Johnson has off shot of being up in 2015 and Almora projects for 2016 and although Jiminez is pretty far away he's also looked at as having the highest upside of any prospect outside of the Cubs top 3, he's also not the only guy close to that potential. All speculation but a means to say that I think there is a package that could pry Price from the Tigers if Scherzer signs particularly when you look at a pool of other suitors and what they have.

Price would command more. CJ is nice, but there are many, many guys nicer. Sorry, Detroit swooped in and got Price on the low. Smart move for them. I don't see them making the same mistake that the Rays did. Especially since there is no reason for them to trade him now. Losing Max almost ensures David gets a fat contract from Detroit IMO. The Cubs would have to be talking top ready specs and they aren't willing to do it.

 

[brett05]

http://m.tigers.mlb.com/news/articl...s-may-be-weighing-max-scherzer-or-david-price



So it looks like they have some bullpen holes going on. Guessing it would take 1 blue chip, 1 quality BP arm to fill the teams current needs to start. They have 4 proven MB starting pitchers already. Who knows the Cubs could send them back Turner's 1 year of control. BP arm would have to hurt. I'm thinking Ramirez as he has closer potential and the Cubs all ready have Rondon and Strop as the set up closer with Grimm as a solid 7th inning option. Add to it they still have a few ready options going on that may end up in AAA due to the log jam.

Blue chip: It would have to be Edwards. I can't see any ways around it. With his body weight he is a gamble for either team but he has TOR potential and a strong SO% running. He adds some body mass he becomes a top 10 RH pitching prospect.

You don't follow anyone outside of the Cubs much do you? It's been an issue for them for years.

The Cubs don't have the package to provide.