2015 Cubs Offseason Discussion

[beckdawg]

Maybe. You add Schwarber and Russell it improves. Bryant should run 30% SO and 15% BB. Still a 2:1 ratio. Schwarber almost runs 1:1 with some LH power.

I wouldn't be so haste on Bryant. If you look at similar players who hit for high average and walk at that sort of rate typically you don't see them long term strike out that much. I would link you to Paul Goldschmidts numbers. At 22 and 23 he struck out quite a bit in A+ and the majors. Since then he's improved quite a bit.

Don't get me wrong, I don't think Bryant is ever going to be a sub 20% type but I'd be fairly surprised if he's in the 30% range. I think he eventually ends up in the 23% range.

 

[CSF77]

That is fair but Paul's highest SO rate was 30% his rook year. Minors he had 22.4, 26.9, 20.1 each stop.
after his rook year: 22.1, 20.4, 23.0 so back in line with his minor league production.

Bryant: 25.0, 14.3, 22.1, 27.4, 25.6, 28.6 at each stop.

He should lie in the 25% area. Paul lives in the 22-23% zone now.

 

[beckdawg]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/a-fun-comparison-for-denard-span/

This explains why I like Span so much well.

 

[CSF77]

By Carrie Muskat / MLB.com | @CarrieMuskat | 4:43 PM ET + 4 COMMENTS
CHICAGO -- The Cubs will begin work this weekend on the Wrigley Field renovation plan, which starts with the expansion of the bleachers and installation of a video scoreboard in left field.

The Cubs play their last home game of the season on Wednesday night.
Cubs spokesman Julian Green said Tuesday the bleachers, the scoreboard and a Budweiser see-through sign in right field will be in place for the start of the 2015 season. The center-field area of the bleachers, which includes the manually operated scoreboard, will not be changed.
Construction work will begin on the home clubhouse, but that will not be finished until Opening Day 2016. Work will continue on that area throughout the 2015 season. The bullpens will be moved underneath the bleachers in 2016 as well as upgraded batting cages.
Sheffield and Waveland Avenues, which border the Wrigley Field bleachers, will be closed to traffic once construction begins.
The City of Chicago has already been preparing the area for the renovation work.
Carrie Muskat is a reporter for MLB.com. She writes a blog, Muskat Ramblings, and you can follow her on Twitter @CarrieMuskat. This story was not subject to the approval of Major League Baseball or its clubs.

http://m.cubs.mlb.com/news/article/96054168/cubs-to-immediately-begin-wrigley-field-renovation-plan

 

[beckdawg]

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/the-xbabip-underperformers/

You better believe Theo Epstein knows exactly what he is doing. The Cubs acquired former prospect Jacob Turner after claiming him on waivers from the Marlins and he’s pitched quite a bit better than his 5.97 ERA would suggest. He’s been quite the ground baller this year, as his two-seamer has generated grounders over 60% of the time. He doesn’t appear to have a whole lot of fantasy upside given his unexciting strikeout potential, but if he returns to the rotation, he could be a nice cheap gamble in NL-Only leagues.

 

[brett05]

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/the-xbabip-underperformers/

That was Aug 11. I know I still like the kid. I wonder if Theo does.

 

[chibears55]

@ESPNChiCubs: Theo talked to media pregame. Mike Olt to work at all 4 corner positions moving forward.

Looks as if the early plan is to keep Olt as a utility player

 

[beckdawg]

I was doing some casual reading this morning and stumbled upon some stuff about the braves that caught my interest. The basic sense nationally and locally in Atlanta seems to be that one of Justin Upton and Jason Heyward is going to be traded because Atlanta can't afford to pay both. Both are 2016 FAs. There previously were reports that the cubs had asked about either in a Shark trade prior to the season. Additionally, keep in mind they did just fire their GM and often times that signals a move for players. That's what happened in SD with Rizzo and has happened in various other examples.

Each provides slightly different things. Upton is a career .274/.354/.475 hitter with a .201 ISO to go alone with 10.2%/23.8% walk/k rates. Heyward is a career .262/.351/.429 hitter with a .167 ISO to go along with a 11.2%/19.3% walk/k rates. Upton is 26 to Heyward's 24. Upton has previously been an above average defender but the past three years has a negative UZR/150 though admittedly two of those years are fairly close to average. Conservatively you could say he's probably average at this point especially if you're playing him in LF. Heyward has been a gold glove caliber RF.

Either is an interesting player to me but of the two I tend to prefer Heyward. For one, I imagine with his lessor traditional stats he's likely to be cheaper both in terms of trade cost and in terms of re-signing. Additionally, while he's batted all over the order he's spent the most time hitting out of the #1/2 with 1488 of his 2815 PAs coming coming from those slots. There's also the minor age factor in favor of him which would put him on a similar age timeline as Castro and Rizzo who both are 24. You then throw in gold glove defense and it's hard not to like what he gives you. Upton would give a bit more offensive potential but presumably between Soler, Rizzo, Bryant, Castro and others they have quite a bit of 3-6 power.

Looking through the braves minor league system their top 10 prospects look as follows
#1 - Jose Peraza 2B/SS
#2 - Lucas Sims RHP
#3 - Christian Bethancourt C
#4 - Braxton Davidson OF
#5 - Jason Hursh RHP
#6 - Mauricio Cabrera RHP
#7 - Garrett Fulenchek RHP
#8 - Wes Parsons RHP
#9 - Cody Martin RHP
#10 - Kyle Kubitza 3B

MLB.com gave the top 3 55 grades, 4-7 50 grades and the rest 45's. 1B and SS seem to be fairly locked in for them with Freeman and Simmons. OF is to an extent too I'd imagine given they are sort of stuck with B.J. Upton for 2 more years and one of Heyward/Upton surely will be back. C between Bethancourt and Gattis seems pretty solid. At 3B Chris Johnson seems a bit shakey coming off a poor year and what with him being 29 anyways. 2B is a bit of a void for them as well. Between Trehan, Wood and their various pitching prospects they are likely pretty decent there.

So, given their lack of real hitting prospects(Peaza is a prototypical no power, good average/speed defensive SS) it seems like the cubs and braves could be a match. In particular, 2B/3B(if you look at SS to 3B conversion) is something the cubs have in spades. You're talking about Alcantara, Baez, Russell, Bryant, Olt, Candelario, Villanueva, and if you want to stretch a bit Bruno, Watkins and Gioskar Amaya. Just as a reference both Villanueva and Candelario are 50 grades on mlb.com and would immediately be the top 3B prospect for ATL. As such, I'm hoping this is something the cubs pursue in the off season. If it's Heyward you can push Soler to LF and have a very solid defensive LF. If it's Upton you're still getting ok defense for LF. Best of all at 26/24 they are still even prior to their "prime." Even if it costs one of your top 6-7 guys you're talking about a low 20 year old for a mid twenties player.

 

[SilenceS]

I know the Cubs wanted Heyward for shark in the off season and the Braves kind of blew them off. I would have to see what they want cause it could be more then we are willing to give up


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[chibears55]

I know the Cubs wanted Heyward for shark in the off season and the Braves kind of blew them off. I would have to see what they want cause it could be more then we are willing to give up


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Heyward in RF and Soler in LF for the next 10+ years could be fun to watch..

Id think theyd want a couple solid young pitchers which the cubs don't have much of to be trading away and im sure they'd want a couple of their top hitters like Almora, etc..

It would really surprise me if the cubs were in the trade market this off season involving big names..

I just think they want to wait and see with these top prospects to see where and who will fit for them first..

 

[Parade_Rain]

Id think theyd want a couple solid young pitchers which the cubs don't have much of to be trading away and im sure they'd want a couple of their top hitters like Almora, etc..

I'd make that trade of Almora and Schwarber. Maybe throw in Edwin Jackson while they are at it to sweeten the deal. [/notserious]

 

[beckdawg]

I know the Cubs wanted Heyward for shark in the off season and the Braves kind of blew them off. I would have to see what they want cause it could be more then we are willing to give up


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There's relatively few prospects I wouldn't consider dealing for Heyward honestly. The number of players who've had a 20/20 season with gold glove defense are incredibly small. Just doing a fangraphs search, there's 33 of 8034 qualified seasons since 1950 who've had at least 20 HR/SB, better than a .330 OBP, and better than 15 on their "def" stat. Andre Dawson early in his career was one name that popped out. Barry Bonds is obviously the extreme version. Carlos Beltran, Brian Jordan, Chris Young, Sammy Sosa(1995), Mike Cameron, Ray Lankford, Andruw Jones, Jesse Barfield, Carlos Gomez, Curtis Granderson, Grady Sizemore, Lonnie Smith, Darin Erstad, Hank Aaron, and Jacoby Ellsbury are other OF's to do it. The only players at all to have that sort of season prior to age 25 are Mike Schmidt, ARod, Grady Sizemore, Andruw Jones(x2), Nomar Garciaparra, Heyward and Carlos Beltran.

With his power down some this year he might even come at a slight discount. Even his "worst" season at 21 he was still worth 2 fWAR namely because his OBP didn't tank and his defense was still there. I feel like he's the type of guy that typically will go under appreciated. He's probably never going to lead the league in any statistical category but as an overall package few offer what he does. And on top of everything he's a lefty which is something they are sorely lacking in their young prospects.

I should probably stop talking because the more I think about him the more I want it to happen and who knows if it will.

 

[beckdawg]

Id think theyd want a couple solid young pitchers which the cubs don't have much of to be trading away and im sure they'd want a couple of their top hitters like Almora, etc..

What gives you that impression? Julio Teheran is 23 and just put up a 3.2 fWAR season. Alex Wood is 23 and just put up a 2.5 fWAR season. Lucas Sims is their #2 prospect and probably a #3 starter and maybe more. Including Sims 6 of their top 10 prospects are pitchers(also 6 of their 11-20). Mike Minor had a rough year but he's 26 and the previous year he was a 3.5 fWAR pitcher. Seems to me that have a crap ton of young pitching. They might need to fill out some of the back of their rotation with some vets but Teheran has ace potential and may already be there.

On the other hand, what they don't appear to have is positional players. Andrelton Simmons is a pretty good young SS but he's not going to carry a team offensively hitting .252/.298/.373 over 1400 PAs. Freddie Freeman is a very good 1B. And then you presumably have one of Upton/Heyward to slot in. But after them? Evan Gattis is 27 and had a good year but some think he'll be trade bait since they have Bethancourt coming behind him. Maybe you buy into Chris Johnson's 2013 campaign but that's pretty iffy since his next highest season was 1.3 fWAR. After those guys no one tallied more than 0.3 fWAR and as I mentioned, their hitting prospects leave a lot to be desired.

It's hard to estimate what the trade market will be but there aren't many teams that even have that many top 50 hitting prospects. The following teams have them based on mlb.com's rankings

Twins - Buxton, Sano, Gordon
Astros - Correra, Santana
Indians - Lindor, Frazier
Texas - Gallo, Alfaro
Dodgers - Seager, Pederson
Padres - Hedges
Red Sox - Swihart
Pirates - Josh Bell, Meadows
Phillies - J.P. Crawford
M's - Alex Jackson, D.J. Peterson
Cubs - Bryant, Russell, Almora, Soler
Royals - Mondesi
Rockies - Dahl
Reds - Winker

Of the teams with more than one top 50 hitting prospect the two that make the most sense are the M's and the Cubs to me. Twins and Pirates probably have the same trouble re-signing him. Dodgers already have 4 good OFs. Astros have Springer and Santana as corner OFs. Perhaps Texas and Cleveland. Of the other teams, the Pads, Royals, Rockies and Reds all seem to have other money issues already. Perhaps the Sox and perhaps the Phillies though I don't think the phillies have much of a system atm.

I could see a deal happening around Villanueva/Candelario + one of the top guys and then some filler pieces at the back. Not to consistently shit on Baez but for the sake of argument they could use a 2B who can hit. If you throw out Baez + one of Villanueva/Candelario that should be enough to at least get the conversation going if not be enough alone. From their perspective you'd be getting potentially a star in Baez and either 3B would instantly become their best 3B prospect of which the guy they have starting is 29 this year. Same idea works to an extent with Alcantara.

 

[brett05]

There's relatively few prospects I wouldn't consider dealing for Heyward honestly. The number of players who've had a 20/20 season with gold glove defense are incredibly small. Just doing a fangraphs search, there's 33 of 8034 qualified seasons since 1950 who've had at least 20 HR/SB, better than a .330 OBP, and better than 15 on their "def" stat. Andre Dawson early in his career was one name that popped out. Barry Bonds is obviously the extreme version. Carlos Beltran, Brian Jordan, Chris Young, Sammy Sosa(1995), Mike Cameron, Ray Lankford, Andruw Jones, Jesse Barfield, Carlos Gomez, Curtis Granderson, Grady Sizemore, Lonnie Smith, Darin Erstad, Hank Aaron, and Jacoby Ellsbury are other OF's to do it. The only players at all to have that sort of season prior to age 25 are Mike Schmidt, ARod, Grady Sizemore, Andruw Jones(x2), Nomar Garciaparra, Heyward and Carlos Beltran.

With his power down some this year he might even come at a slight discount. Even his "worst" season at 21 he was still worth 2 fWAR namely because his OBP didn't tank and his defense was still there. I feel like he's the type of guy that typically will go under appreciated. He's probably never going to lead the league in any statistical category but as an overall package few offer what he does. And on top of everything he's a lefty which is something they are sorely lacking in their young prospects.

I should probably stop talking because the more I think about him the more I want it to happen and who knows if it will.

Trout (

 

[CSF77]

@ESPNChiCubs: Theo talked to media pregame. Mike Olt to work at all 4 corner positions moving forward.

Looks as if the early plan is to keep Olt as a utility player

RH bat off the bench. Small impact.

 

[CSF77]

I was doing some casual reading this morning and stumbled upon some stuff about the braves that caught my interest. The basic sense nationally and locally in Atlanta seems to be that one of Justin Upton and Jason Heyward is going to be traded because Atlanta can't afford to pay both. Both are 2016 FAs. There previously were reports that the cubs had asked about either in a Shark trade prior to the season. Additionally, keep in mind they did just fire their GM and often times that signals a move for players. That's what happened in SD with Rizzo and has happened in various other examples.

Each provides slightly different things. Upton is a career .274/.354/.475 hitter with a .201 ISO to go alone with 10.2%/23.8% walk/k rates. Heyward is a career .262/.351/.429 hitter with a .167 ISO to go along with a 11.2%/19.3% walk/k rates. Upton is 26 to Heyward's 24. Upton has previously been an above average defender but the past three years has a negative UZR/150 though admittedly two of those years are fairly close to average. Conservatively you could say he's probably average at this point especially if you're playing him in LF. Heyward has been a gold glove caliber RF.

Either is an interesting player to me but of the two I tend to prefer Heyward. For one, I imagine with his lessor traditional stats he's likely to be cheaper both in terms of trade cost and in terms of re-signing. Additionally, while he's batted all over the order he's spent the most time hitting out of the #1/2 with 1488 of his 2815 PAs coming coming from those slots. There's also the minor age factor in favor of him which would put him on a similar age timeline as Castro and Rizzo who both are 24. You then throw in gold glove defense and it's hard not to like what he gives you. Upton would give a bit more offensive potential but presumably between Soler, Rizzo, Bryant, Castro and others they have quite a bit of 3-6 power.

Looking through the braves minor league system their top 10 prospects look as follows
#1 - Jose Peraza 2B/SS
#2 - Lucas Sims RHP
#3 - Christian Bethancourt C
#4 - Braxton Davidson OF
#5 - Jason Hursh RHP
#6 - Mauricio Cabrera RHP
#7 - Garrett Fulenchek RHP
#8 - Wes Parsons RHP
#9 - Cody Martin RHP
#10 - Kyle Kubitza 3B

MLB.com gave the top 3 55 grades, 4-7 50 grades and the rest 45's. 1B and SS seem to be fairly locked in for them with Freeman and Simmons. OF is to an extent too I'd imagine given they are sort of stuck with B.J. Upton for 2 more years and one of Heyward/Upton surely will be back. C between Bethancourt and Gattis seems pretty solid. At 3B Chris Johnson seems a bit shakey coming off a poor year and what with him being 29 anyways. 2B is a bit of a void for them as well. Between Trehan, Wood and their various pitching prospects they are likely pretty decent there.

So, given their lack of real hitting prospects(Peaza is a prototypical no power, good average/speed defensive SS) it seems like the cubs and braves could be a match. In particular, 2B/3B(if you look at SS to 3B conversion) is something the cubs have in spades. You're talking about Alcantara, Baez, Russell, Bryant, Olt, Candelario, Villanueva, and if you want to stretch a bit Bruno, Watkins and Gioskar Amaya. Just as a reference both Villanueva and Candelario are 50 grades on mlb.com and would immediately be the top 3B prospect for ATL. As such, I'm hoping this is something the cubs pursue in the off season. If it's Heyward you can push Soler to LF and have a very solid defensive LF. If it's Upton you're still getting ok defense for LF. Best of all at 26/24 they are still even prior to their "prime." Even if it costs one of your top 6-7 guys you're talking about a low 20 year old for a mid twenties player.

I do not see them making any major trades right now.

Right now they are set up with Cog in LF, Alcantara in CF and Soler in RF. Bryant most likely is moved to LF with Russell to 3B. Now if they trade Castro to open up SS at the deadline it changes, but I doubt they trade Castro.

So that trade is far fetched. If they are thinking Olt as a corner then he helps out at 3B/1B/LF depth and get some AB's when the starters get days off vs LH pitching. I see a RH OF like Szczur added.

When Almora is ready it will depend on if Alcantara is a quality major league talent. That will be in 2 years anyways and no rush.

Long term I'm still seeing it being Bryant/Alcantara/Soler in the OF. Almora traded if Alcantara turns into a quality CF. Schwarber as a catcher. I don't see them trading Castro because I don't see teams giving Theo the young TOR SP that he wants in return.

 

[chibears55]

RH bat off the bench. Small impact.

Epstein feels otherwise. ...

The Cubs will talk with infielder Mike Olt about learning the corner outfield positions this offseason, ESPNChicago.com reports."He's always a threat against left-handed pitching, so he can be a guy that covers the four corners and mashes left-handed pitching," team president Theo Epstein said Friday [...]

 

[SilenceS]

Epstein feels otherwise. ...

The Cubs will talk with infielder Mike Olt about learning the corner outfield positions this offseason, ESPNChicago.com reports."He's always a threat against left-handed pitching, so he can be a guy that covers the four corners and mashes left-handed pitching," team president Theo Epstein said Friday [...]

He would be used off the bench. Outside shot to platoon.

 

[chibears55]

He would be used off the bench. Outside shot to platoon.

I understand that. . It's what I originally said to begin with when I posted they were looking for him to play corner outfield. .

That they may be looking for him to be a utility player next year....

 

[beckdawg]

Trout (

His best season with fangraphs "def" stat was a 13.0 so he barely misses. That's not to say it's all encompassing and I agree it would be rather arbitrary to leave him out of such a group. I just used 15 as an arbitrary cut off point. And from a filter perspective it's hard to quantify defense. It's not like HRs where you can say show me everyone with 20. So, I wouldn't be surprised if there's other names I missed but the point was that there's not a ton of players who've done it. Maybe more than I listed like I said but you're still talking a select group.