2015 Cubs Offseason Discussion

[CSF77]

I understand that. . It's what I originally said to begin with when I posted they were looking for him to play corner outfield. .

That they may be looking for him to be a utility player next year....

All that tells me is they are planning on keeping Coghlan and Valbuena while using Olt as needed. When Bryant and Russell are on the team Olt becomes useless as 3B and LF and RF are all RH bats and Rizzo hits both the same.

So small impact that affects for at most 2 months.

Theo must not have much to talk about if that was his big talk of the moment.

 

[CSF77]

If they wanted to up his value they should let him play full time 1B in Iowa then promote him to DH as needed. That way he is getting regular AB's and can come in not rusty from sitting.

I don't see him gaining much value but if he can not out play Valbuena at 3B then that tells me about his true impact.

 

[beckdawg]

So that trade is far fetched.

I disagree. First of all to say they are "set up" with cog in LF is pretty homerish. For one he's 29. For two he's had this type of success once in his career and it was 5 years ago. Counting on him for anything is risky next year and beyond that you're still talking about a 29 year old. I say that as someone who liked the signing pre-season and enjoy what he's done this season. Additionally, what are the odds any of the players you're talking about as future outfielders are even as good as Heyward/Upton are right now? Look, I love Bryant and can't give him high enough praise but the simple fact of the matter is that there's a grand total of 42 positional players in the league with 3.9+ fWAR. Upton is at 3.9 and Heyward is at 5.2

Baez I obviously don't love but as I have said else where even if he becomes as good a hitter as Edwin Encarnacion only at 2B, Edwin's put up 2 4 war seasons and a 3.6 this year. Almora's top end is what Heyward already is. Almora has yet to have hit more than 9 HRs in a season and steal more than 6 bases. Russell is likely 20/20 at SS and his defense while good probably isn't gold glove. Granted his a SS vs RF but you're also talking prospect risk of not meeting potential. Schwarber is maybe a better hitter but doesn't have either OF's speed/defense. Soler may be a better overall hitter but is he really objectively going to be "better" than either Upton or Heyward? Think best case he's as good. Alcantara can probably get to 20/30 but thus far his defense has only been average in the OF and I'm perhaps being kind there.

If Upton/Heyward become available and the cubs aren't part of the discussions I think it's a serious mistake. Heyward in particular is 2 years older than Bryant/Alcantara/Soler, 3 years older than Baez/Schwarber, 4 years older than Almora/Russell and you already know what he is. Additionally, this isn't a case of me making up the idea of them trading Upton/Heyward. As I said earlier, the prevailing opinion from their local writers is one is traded. So while it is not a lock to happen, the opinion seems to be that it's more likely to happen than not. And as stated before they supposedly asked about both in potential Shark trades.

Let me put it this way, if 2014 Rizzo suddenly became available and it cost you one of the top end prospects plus one of he 9-15 range and say 2 of the 15-30 range prospects the cubs currently have would you make that trade? Because essentially in Heyward that's what you're talking about. Maybe I'm wrong but that's what I'm assuming it will cost. The original Upton trade when he was 25 and had 3 years of control left cost the Braves Prado, Delgado and essentially 2 50 grade prospects if we make the assumption of Chris Johnson being worth 1 50 grade prospect himself. With only 1 year of control left both Heyward and Upton would presumably be cheaper. And keep in mind Delgado was basically traded for Dempster had that whole fiasco not gone down so it's not as though he were an untouchable pitching prospect to begin with like many would assume the cubs top 8 or so prospects are. As such, I really think the cost you're talking about is one big prospect to match Prado's value, two averageish 50 grade prospects(think Vogelbach/Villanueva types) and maybe some organizational filler. Whoever has Upton/Heyward in 2016 is going to have to give them a $100-150 mil contract which is a bit of a down side but it's not like the cubs don't have the money where as a team like KC or Pitt who have enough prospects to swing a trade can't say the same about the money.

To me it's as simple as selling a couple of hopeful players for one that is a sure thing. You look at teams who are good and they've made these kind of trades often. If we just look at the cardinals over the past 15 years you're talking about a 30 Holliday(1 year of control) for Clayton Mortensen, Shane Peterson and Brett Wallace, a 27 year old Scott Rolen(I believe 1 year of control) with Doug Nickle for Placido Polanco, Bud Smith and Mike Timlin, and a 30 year old Jim Edmonds for Kent Bottenfield and Adam Kennedy. The yankees were well known for this in the 90's and 2000's. If we look at past cub success you're talking about a 28 year old Derrek Lee for Mike Nannini and Hee-Seop Choi and a 26 year old Aramis Ramirez for Matt Bruback, Jose Hernandez and Bobby Hill.

Overall, I have a tough time thinking of young star positional player trades like this that have failed. Pitching examples might be a bit more obvious(Mark Mulder and Rich Harden come to mind). Maybe you can argue Garciapara but he wasn't bad just injury prone. The way I see it, if a team is stupid enough to give up on a all star caliber position player who's pre-30 for whatever reason you don't try and stop them. Even in trades where the team getting prospects did well(Griffey to reds/Teixeira to the braves) it's not like they murdered the trade. Like with Garciapara it was usually a case of injury or lack of ability to re-sign the star like with Teixeira.

 

[SilenceS]

JR (Vegas)

deGrom for Addison Russell, who says no?

Klaw (2:07 PM)

Cubs.






Mike (Chicago)

Arrieta repeat in 2015 or due for a fall... back end starter?

Klaw (2:11 PM)

I don't see anything in his stuff or delivery that says this is unsustainable. I think the Cubs struck gold.








Steve (California)

Surprised you would turn down deGrom for Russell if you were the Cubs. Can you expound? DeGrom is cost controlled for one less season, has a near full season of success as an MLB #2 starter, and fills a big need where Russell does not. Is it a matter of bats > arms for health reasons?

Klaw (2:36 PM)

Russell is a potential perennial All-Star. Degrom is good, very good, but I don't think he's going to be CYA good.






Tom (Chicago)

Do you think that Alcantara can play ss in the majors? Wouldn't he have tremendous trade value for a team looking for speed, defense and occasional pop from a switch hitting ss?

Klaw (2:37 PM)

Not everyday. Utility/super-utility role where he makes 20-30 starts, yes, not every day.







George (Chicago)

I know Hendricks doesn't throw hard, but he has faced the same team now a few times, and his stats the second time he faces a team are still good. Is there anyway he can be a good #3 long term? If he is still doing the same thing in the middle of next year will you change your mind or will you still project a regression based on his stuff?

Klaw (2:46 PM)

I believe this kind of argument is known as "special pleading."




Tony (Chicago, but soon Phoenix)

In regards to the Chicago Cubs, can they be a wildcard contender next season?

Klaw (2:53 PM)

Add two starters and they could. Lester and one more.








Scrapper (Chicago)

Does Syndergaard for Starlin Castro make more sense? Who says no to THAT deal?


Klaw (3:05 PM)

I think that makes more sense for both sides, if the Mets like the contract.

 

[CSF77]

Special pleading (also known as stacking the deck, ignoring the counterevidence, slanting, and one-sided assessment[1]) is a form of spurious argument where a position in a dispute introduces favourable details or excludes unfavourable details by alleging a need to apply additional considerations without proper criticism of these considerations. Essentially, this involves someone attempting to cite something as an exception to a generally accepted rule, principle, etc. without justifying the exception.[2]

The lack of criticism may be a simple oversight (e.g., a reference to common sense) or an application of a double standard.

 

[CSF77]

Scrapper (Chicago)

Does Syndergaard for Starlin Castro make more sense? Who says no to THAT deal?


Klaw (3:05 PM)

I think that makes more sense for both sides, if the Mets like the contract.

I believe the Mets would take Baez for Syndergaard. Cubs then move Alcantara back to 2B and wait for Russell to promote.

Castro depends if they want to pay Castro's contract but it is a good trade.

Tony (Chicago, but soon Phoenix)

In regards to the Chicago Cubs, can they be a wildcard contender next season?

Klaw (2:53 PM)

Add two starters and they could. Lester and one more.

I agree with this one. Arrieta, Lester, Starter, Hendricks, Doubront makes perfect sense. Turner and Jochish to the pen. Wada, Wood cut. Jackson's deal ate.

Trading up a SS for Syndergaard makes sense here.


In Arrieta sustainable: yes. His FIP suggests it. Most of the one hit wonders we had still had FIP's 3.40-4.0 range. VS Arrieta who is under 3. His production is legit.

 

[beckdawg]

George (Chicago)

I know Hendricks doesn't throw hard, but he has faced the same team now a few times, and his stats the second time he faces a team are still good. Is there anyway he can be a good #3 long term? If he is still doing the same thing in the middle of next year will you change your mind or will you still project a regression based on his stuff?

Klaw (2:46 PM)

I believe this kind of argument is known as "special pleading."

It's cases like this that I find Klaw annoying. He could have just as easily said if he is doing that perhaps you reevaluate him as an exception to the rule such as someone like Doug Fister but I don't think he will. That answers the question in presumably the same exact way but instead he choose to be snarky about it.

 

[JZsportsfan]

I know Baez has a much higher ceiling than Castro based on his power, but I want to see him excel before we trade a 3x All-Star who is about to be 25 YO. Especially since Castro was playing very well at the end of the season.

Yes pitching is obviously a big concern, but replace Edwin Jackson and is it still that big of a concern? I mean Lester is far from a guarantee, but cutting out Jackson and Wood increases that picture significantly.

 

[beckdawg]

Was reading fangraphs and came across this which relates to my previous comments about 20/20 seasons. They don't mention defense but a lot still applies.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/michael-brantley-and-the-value-of-a-20-20-season/

 

[CSF77]

Will Theo's plan for Cubs in 2015 work?
October, 1, 2014
OCT 1
2:36
PM CT
Rogers By Jesse Rogers
ESPNChicago.com
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CHICAGO -- Chicago Cubs president Theo Epstein's year-end press conference Tuesday went about as you would think. The Cubs are in a "compete and development" mode. It means they have a very outside chance at the postseason in 2015, but it's better than the past few seasons, which had no chance of ending well.

They are only in the second part of a three-part plan. Developing their talent is still the priority.

Here are a few statements by Epstein worth analyzing:

[+] EnlargeTheo Epstein, Anthony Rizzo
David Banks/Getty Images
Theo Epstein says the Cubs will balance player development with competing for a playoff spot next season.
Theo: "We're going to be competing while we continue to develop young players."

Analysis: This was the crux of the entire message by Epstein, and it speaks for itself. He can make that statement because he knows he has a group of talented young players. If they come together quickly -- with the help of some additions -- they can make some noise in the standings. But as documented in this blog earlier in the week, the Cubs are the youngest team in baseball, and growing pains are likely. The emphasis should still be on development, and the Cubs know this. Epstein claims they won't "sell out" for 2015, and that's the right call. You can't wave a wand and get experience. It takes time.

Theo: "We are in a position, perhaps as soon as this offseason and certainly over the next 15 months, we're going to be adding some talent from outside the organization. We hope it will be impact talent."

Analysis: The Cubs will add, but remember the wording: "perhaps this offseason." Next winter features a deeper free-agent class, and the Cubs will be one year closer to their "apex." The bidding for this year's three top free-agent pitchers -- James Shields, Jon Lester and Max Scherzer -- should be fierce, although we know only a handful of teams can afford them. The problem with the nondesperate approach to them is someone else will be desperate (think the Yankees). If 99 percent sign based on the best deal, as Epstein indicated, then the Cubs will have to outbid someone else who is desperate. What does that make them at that point? Smart or just as desperate?
Theo: "The coaching staff by and large did a nice job. As a result, everyone will be invited back with the one exception of assistant hitting coach Mike Brumley."

Analysis: The Cubs have been changing hitting coaches about as often as they strike out. As good as lead hitting coach Bill Mueller was at getting on base as a player (.373 career on-base percentage), teaching it is a whole other story. Epstein admitted the Cubs have come up woefully short in that department and may have to look outside the organization as that ability is more "innate" than "learned" in the Cubs' opinion. If Mueller can develop some young guys into better on-base threats, the Cubs' offense could finally take off. The subtraction of Brumley could make way for Manny Ramirez. Epstein says he'll remain mum on the subject until Ramirez decides if he's officially retiring as a player. It means there's a chance he's a Cubs coach next season.


[+] EnlargeCastro
Andy Lyons/Getty Images
Three-time All-Star shortstop Starlin Castro rebounded in 2014 after a down season in 2013.
Theo: "Javy [Baez] is going to be given the opportunity to make the adjustments at the major league level, and we believe he will. He has some of the best raw ingredients to work with in all of Major League Baseball. I think he's someone for the long term you're going to want to bet on."

Analysis: Obviously Epstein isn't going to say negative things publicly about any player, let alone someone as young as Baez, but his statements make sense on one level: Baez is a unique player with unique skills. Remember, the problem with Baez is mostly about pitch selection (although Epstein has mentioned mechanical adjustments, as well). His problem isn't on pitches in the zone -- that's where he does incredible damage. Mike Olt, for example, missed a lot of pitches in the zone, the most in baseball percentage-wise. That seems less fixable. Baez should be given plenty of leash to figure things out.
Theo: "We're making our plans for 2015 with [Starlin Castro] at the shortstop position."

Analysis: The Cubs could do a lot worse than Castro at shortstop. It's not to say he won't or can't be moved, it just has to be the right deal. That sounds obvious, but the point is, the Cubs should not be in a desperate mode to trade a three-time All-Star for young pitching unless they are overwhelmed by the trade. As for moving him to another position, it should only happen if it is completely obvious to all there's a better option at shortstop. Right now, we don't know that. Based on 2014, Castro answered the criticism, and his status should only change if it completely and obviously helps the team.
Theo: "Like most teams, we'll always miss out on more free agents than we'll sign. That's just the nature of it. Free agency is not for the faint of heart. You have to go in knowing that you might look silly by pursuing the player and not landing him, and that's OK. We're prepared for that. The key to thriving in free agency is acknowledging all the risks, acknowledging all the variables, staying true to some attachment to value ... and most importantly building up your organization, the rest of your roster with impactful young players so you can afford those free agents in the first place, and you can afford to miss on those free agents, too. Missing on some free agents is inevitable."

Analysis: This might be one of the smartest things Epstein said. He's been burned too many times -- see Edwin Jackson -- to rely on going outside the organization. You know you have to do it, but only where it makes complete sense -- not out of desperation. Free-agent contracts can look really bad really quickly, as most players signed come at that age where things can go south fast. The elimination of performance-enhancing drugs from the game has brought peak ages down. The Cubs might be desperate someday to get that one guy, but they aren't there yet. It's also why they should be slow to trade their assets. Fortifying themselves in many positions won't leave them thin if/when there is a bust or major injury.


SportsNation
Will the Cubs make the playoffs in 2015?

47%
Yes
53%
No
Discuss (Total votes: 1,854)
Summation: As Epstein intimated in the press conference, if you haven't been following their plan, then you might be confused by it. But as rebuilding projects go, this all makes sense. The Cubs are getting closer to really competing, so they are getting closer to adding from outside the organization.

They aren't quite there yet, so dedicating every resource to 2015 would be foolish. As Epstein said recently about young players, you can't just tell them to "get comfortable" and it happens. They still need to go through some growing pains, but while they're at it, they can start to win.

One step back should always be followed by two steps forward. One thing you can say about the Cubs is they have always been transparent. They aren't pulling the wool over anyone's eyes. When Epstein says the goal is the playoffs next season, he means it. So do 29 other teams. He's not guaranteeing it, nor should he.

The Cubs won't sell out for 2015, but they'll be a year closer to reaching their peak, that is if they stay the course and their young players become as good as advertised.

http://espn.go.com/blog/chicago/cub...n-for-cubs-in-2015-work?ex_cid=espnapi_public

 

[CSF77]

Theo: "We are in a position, perhaps as soon as this offseason and certainly over the next 15 months, we're going to be adding some talent from outside the organization. We hope it will be impact talent."

Analysis: The Cubs will add, but remember the wording: "perhaps this offseason." Next winter features a deeper free-agent class, and the Cubs will be one year closer to their "apex." The bidding for this year's three top free-agent pitchers -- James Shields, Jon Lester and Max Scherzer -- should be fierce, although we know only a handful of teams can afford them. The problem with the nondesperate approach to them is someone else will be desperate (think the Yankees). If 99 percent sign based on the best deal, as Epstein indicated, then the Cubs will have to outbid someone else who is desperate. What does that make them at that point? Smart or just as desperate?
Theo: "The coaching staff by and large did a nice job. As a result, everyone will be invited back with the one exception of assistant hitting coach Mike Brumley."

That arguement puts Madea in favor. He is viewed as a MOR and with Arrieta as the ace he becomes a #2.

Theo: "Javy [Baez] is going to be given the opportunity to make the adjustments at the major league level, and we believe he will. He has some of the best raw ingredients to work with in all of Major League Baseball. I think he's someone for the long term you're going to want to bet on."

Analysis: Obviously Epstein isn't going to say negative things publicly about any player, let alone someone as young as Baez, but his statements make sense on one level: Baez is a unique player with unique skills. Remember, the problem with Baez is mostly about pitch selection (although Epstein has mentioned mechanical adjustments, as well). His problem isn't on pitches in the zone -- that's where he does incredible damage. Mike Olt, for example, missed a lot of pitches in the zone, the most in baseball percentage-wise. That seems less fixable. Baez should be given plenty of leash to figure things out.
Theo: "We're making our plans for 2015 with [Starlin Castro] at the shortstop position."

Part that said Olt led the league in missing pitches in the zone was key. But I believe he made that adjustment back in AAA. Time will tell here.

Theo: "Like most teams, we'll always miss out on more free agents than we'll sign. That's just the nature of it. Free agency is not for the faint of heart. You have to go in knowing that you might look silly by pursuing the player and not landing him, and that's OK. We're prepared for that. The key to thriving in free agency is acknowledging all the risks, acknowledging all the variables, staying true to some attachment to value ... and most importantly building up your organization, the rest of your roster with impactful young players so you can afford those free agents in the first place, and you can afford to miss on those free agents, too. Missing on some free agents is inevitable."

Analysis: This might be one of the smartest things Epstein said. He's been burned too many times -- see Edwin Jackson -- to rely on going outside the organization. You know you have to do it, but only where it makes complete sense -- not out of desperation. Free-agent contracts can look really bad really quickly, as most players signed come at that age where things can go south fast. The elimination of performance-enhancing drugs from the game has brought peak ages down. The Cubs might be desperate someday to get that one guy, but they aren't there yet. It's also why they should be slow to trade their assets. Fortifying themselves in many positions won't leave them thin if/when there is a bust or major injury.

Theo lost out on Anabel and made a knee jerk reaction and went with the younger Jackson vs the Better Loshe.

Age is not always the best choice.

 

[JZsportsfan]

I wonder if the Cubs would even consider having Bryant switch between LF and 3B over the course of the season. So instead of signing a platoon player they could have him play 3B, and start Coughlan. Or start LF and play Valbuena. Not sure if I like this but it just crossed my mind as a possibility since they have been talking a lot about versatility with the young guys


Phillies also putting Hamels on the block. I'm sure the Cubs will be involved, obviously would rather land Lester without the trade. Curious as to what the Phils will be asking for since he has $110 million left on his deal

 

[Zvbxrpl]

Still getting used to this multi quote thing, sooner or later I'll figure it out.

Russell for De Grom? No thanks. I'd do it for Jose Fernandez or Chris Sale though......though both will cost more than just Russell, which probably wont happen.

Keep Castro. You know what he is, and until you know what Russell, Baez, or whomever plays short stop is, you don't get rid of a talented commodity.

I think Arrieta will repeat. He looked great this year.

In addition to the 2 starters, I think the cubs need to add an outfielder who can get on base/you can plug in 2nd, 5th, 6th, or 7th. Any good free agents? I hope Baltimore doens't take up Nick Markakis' option......he'd look great in cubbie blue. He'll probably come with a lofty price tag......

Lester, Hendricks, and Arrieta sounds pretty good I think.

 

[CSF77]

Jonny Gones and Lester would be a good early guess. Both have connections to Theo and add play off experience to a young team.

 

[brett05]

Russell for De Grom? No thanks. I'd do it for Jose Fernandez or Chris Sale though......though both will cost more than just Russell, which probably wont happen.

Cost more? That's an understatement. You'd start with Bryant and Russell.

 

[Shawon0Meter]

Down goes the Toyota sign

 

[Zvbxrpl]

Cost more? That's an understatement. You'd start with Bryant and Russell.

Which I said wont happen. I'd make everybody but Bryant available for Sale, but not sell everything built. That would be counter productive to what Theo's done.

Though I'm interested to see what the south siders do with him. Clearly, you guys aren't going anywhere soon. Not a knock on you guys, just the changing of the generation to the next. Pauly to Abreau. Buherle to Sale. If you hit on a few picks, you'll be back and around; I'd say Detroit has another contending year, maybe Cleveland picks up like the Nats after going to the playoffs, then missing, than going back this year.

Rodon and Tim Anderson look pretty darn good. I presume Rodon will be up sometime in 2015 and Anderson possibly 2016. But pardon me if I don't respect Connor Danish or Courtney Hawkins........

 

[brett05]

Which I said wont happen. I'd make everybody but Bryant available for Sale, but not sell everything built. That would be counter productive to what Theo's done.

To get a Sale or notch below it's gotta start with Bryant else it's likely not going to happen in a trade.

Though I'm interested to see what the south siders do with him. Clearly, you guys aren't going anywhere soon.

Not a knock on you guys, just the changing of the generation to the next. Pauly to Abreau. Buherle to Sale. If you hit on a few picks, you'll be back and around; I'd say Detroit has another contending year, maybe Cleveland picks up like the Nats after going to the playoffs, then missing, than going back this year.

Not a knock on you, but I can see you don;t follow the White Sox much to make such a statement, especially in 2014.

Rodon and Tim Anderson look pretty darn good. I presume Rodon will be up sometime in 2015 and Anderson possibly 2016. But pardon me if I don't respect Connor Danish or Courtney Hawkins........

Hawkins whiffs too much, Rodon has a shot at the rotation if he can make the adjustments right out of ST. He's a stud in waiting as pitching prospects go. Anderson also looks like the air apparent to Alexei when they are done.

But let's not derail this offseason thread into a White Sox thread/Cubs Thread.

 

[Zvbxrpl]

Not a knock on you, but I can see you don;t follow the White Sox much to make such a statement, especially in 2014.

I see that the White Sox will be picking before the cubs in the 2015 draft.

Or did I miss something?

But let's not derail this offseason thread into a White Sox thread/Cubs Thread.

I wasn't trying to, just curious as the white sox are in a position where it could go one way or another, unlike teh cubs, who's position we've known for the past few years. Perhaps I was a tad harsh, but I am curious as to what the Sox will do. Are they more likely to pull a cubs and pack it in a season or two to better their farm or go for it?

 

[Parade_Rain]

I see that the White Sox will be picking before the cubs in the 2015 draft.

Or did I miss something?



I wasn't trying to, just curious as the white sox are in a position where it could go one way or another, unlike teh cubs, who's position we've known for the past few years. Perhaps I was a tad harsh, but I am curious as to what the Sox will do. Are they more likely to pull a cubs and pack it in a season or two to better their farm or go for it?

If you're curious about it, post it in the White Sox forum. Believe it or not, they have one here.

http://www.chicitysports.com/forum/forumdisplay.php/8-Chicago-White-Sox-Forum