2015 Cubs Offseason Discussion

[brett05]

I think it has to do with Castillo may net a quality player on a return. His highest value is what he brings back vs backing up. He is a league starter and his value will drop as a back up later on when they try to trade him due to his pending F/A.

With the signing of Ross's, Castillos value takes a major hit

 

[Boobaby1]

With the signing of Ross's, Castillos value takes a major hit

The Cubs already knew what they would get for Castillo, and they knew who the courters were/are. That is why they went ahead and signed Ross. They know they will free up a little payroll, and also the player(s) that they will get in return.

They will hold tight IMO and see what shakes out the rest of the way, and then trade him off. He is an average #1 catcher, but a very solid to great back-up for some team.

 

[beckdawg]

I actually get a little ticked watching catchers frame pitches, because I think if it works. it means the ump is stupid, lazy or both.

But the fact is, it does work. (Unfortunately) I mean, it's really ridiculous to be thinking that the catcher determines whether a pitcher's pitch is a ball or strike. But if that's what's happening there's no reason not to take advantage of it.

Montero will supposedly be worth nearly as many runs saved as Lester. While i remain skeptical of the actual number, I am willing to concede that framers do, in fact, save runs. So that will be a plus over Castillo. (Before the Ross signing, I asked why Montero couldn't tech framing to Castillo, but Castillo had a mind boggling number of pitches hit his glove that he didn't even catch. How can you pull the ball into the zone when you don't even catch it.?)

The only thing I'd comment on here is to add when healthy. If he'd been healthy the past several seasons I'd feel better about the move. He's pretty clearly a better defensive catcher and can be as good offensively it not a tad better. However, you're paying fairly substantially for it both in pay and prospects.

 

[chibears55]

They didn't bring him in for his offense. They brought him in to catch Lester, and spell Montero when Lefties are pitching. If the Cubs are pinning there hopes on Ross hitting, they are screwed, but they aren't.

It is up to the other 7 guys to give this team offense, and if they don't, it wouldn't matter if Ross hit .350 with 40 HR's.

Okay, maybe it would mater a little.

So when he leaves guys on base in close games because he cant hit, it will be ok because he only here to catch Lester and help him get a couple extra strikes called during his starts...

Basically with the 8 and 9 hitters being somewhat automatic outs, you put all the pressure on either the 7 hitter or leadoff hitter to come up with big hits when needed...

Again, yea it nice to have a catcher who can get you a few extra strikes called in a game but it didn't seem like samardzija Hammel arrieta or Hendricks were struggling with Castillo behind the plate

 

[TL1961]

The only thing I'd comment on here is to add when healthy. If he'd been healthy the past several seasons I'd feel better about the move. He's pretty clearly a better defensive catcher and can be as good offensively it not a tad better. However, you're paying fairly substantially for it both in pay and prospects.

No way can you say they paid substantially in prospects.

 

[TL1961]

So when he leaves guys on base in close games because he cant hit, it will be ok because he only here to catch Lester and help him get a couple extra strikes called during his starts...

Basically with the 8 and 9 hitters being somewhat automatic outs, you put all the pressure on either the 7 hitter or leadoff hitter to come up with big hits when needed...

Again, yea it nice to have a catcher who can get you a few extra strikes called in a game but it didn't seem like samardzija Hammel arrieta or Hendricks were struggling with Castillo behind the plate

Assuming the backup catcher gets about 150 plate appearances next year, the difference between Castillo's OBP and Ross' would amount to 5 fewer times reaching base., total. So the number of times Ross leaves men on base where Castillo wouldn't is likely to be very few. Simply a nonfactor.

Then again, in 40 games the backup will likely play, there may not be a whole lot of difference in runs saved. But it could easily be expected to be > than runs cost us at the plate. And even if this runs saved difference between the two potential backups is insignificant, the point of going with Ross is that they get him for $ only, and can trade Castillo for assets.

My concern, as stated, is that they get somebody who can truly matter. Packaging Castillo with Wood or someone else may improve those chances. We shall see. But the Ross over Castillo thing is not likely to have a huge impact either way.

 

[beckdawg]

No way can you say they paid substantially in prospects.

Well more money than prospects but what i meant was the combination of the two for the upgrade is a pretty substantial price.

 

[brett05]

The Cubs already knew what they would get for Castillo, and they knew who the courters were/are. That is why they went ahead and signed Ross. They know they will free up a little payroll, and also the player(s) that they will get in return.

They will hold tight IMO and see what shakes out the rest of the way, and then trade him off. He is an average #1 catcher, but a very solid to great back-up for some team.

All I am saying is that the Cubs lost trade value

 

[Shawon0Meter]

[video=youtube;KspaD54frhk]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KspaD54frhk[/video]

 

[SilenceS]

[video=youtube;KspaD54frhk]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KspaD54frhk[/video]

chicks dig the long ball

 

[2323]

All I am saying is that the Cubs lost trade value

And all he's saying is it's nonsense as it was fixed independent of other moves. He knew you were saying this and was calling it out. There was really no point to this response as it doesn't establish anything that wasn't already understood. And one way you knew it was understood was by how he directly addressed the very notion that you thought you were clarifying.

Do you not understand this or is it your thing to just talk around someone's response as if you're trying to ignore the substance of it or believe it was something else?

 

[CSF77]

Assuming the backup catcher gets about 150 plate appearances next year, the difference between Castillo's OBP and Ross' would amount to 5 fewer times reaching base., total. So the number of times Ross leaves men on base where Castillo wouldn't is likely to be very few. Simply a nonfactor.

Then again, in 40 games the backup will likely play, there may not be a whole lot of difference in runs saved. But it could easily be expected to be > than runs cost us at the plate. And even if this runs saved difference between the two potential backups is insignificant, the point of going with Ross is that they get him for $ only, and can trade Castillo for assets.

My concern, as stated, is that they get somebody who can truly matter. Packaging Castillo with Wood or someone else may improve those chances. We shall see. But the Ross over Castillo thing is not likely to have a huge impact either way.

I would pack:
Wood: Arb 2 est: 5 mil
Castillo: Arb 1. 1-2 mil most likely.
Alcantara plenty of control.

Ben Revere: Arb 2. Has 2 years of control. He should make 3 mil.

2 minor league arms with some upside. Maybe nab Zach Eflin as he has been flipped around. Then Matt Imhof.

 

[CSF77]

Interesting: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/12/padres-have-discussed-trading-myers-for-hamels.html

 

[beckdawg]

I really don't get why people are so eager to package Alcantara. I'd be willing to be on him being a 2.5-3 fWAR player next year.

 

[CSF77]

I see him lacking top end speed or OBA. Which puts him into a SH bat that splits up the RH bats lower in the line up.

Revere has the same BB% but has a hit tool like Castro's with 50 SB potential.

It is a upgrade in CF no matter how you spin it.

 

[TL1961]

Revere war <1 4 of 5 years.

My bold prediction: AA will steal 25+ bases in 2015 (for the Cubs)

 

[CSF77]

I just hope their big OF move isnt just Gomes so he can platoon wirh coughlin..

I agree their main focus is on pitching , IMO it to take pressure off the young hitters as they go through their first full season. .


Also IMO.. this pitch framing thing is stupid..

Seriously how do they even come up with a stat for that... do they have these pitch framing experts sit there and watch every pitch to every catchet of every game and are so expertise in pitch framing that they can tell when it done or not and give their expert opinion on wheather it was a good frame or not..

ill look after I send this but was the Dback rotation that much better with Montero catching then Samardzija (cubs) Hammel (cubs) Arrieta and Hendricks was with Castillo. . Something tells me not really. .
and offensively montero and castillo ate about the same..


If they trade Castillo for basically nothing. I guarantee in a season or two their going to wish he was still a Cub. ..

Montero not going to wow us, and ross will probably be worse then Baker..

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/20...ming-data-why-miguel-montero-is-a-perfect-fit

 

[CSF77]

Castillo’s zBall% (the percentage of pitches, caught within the strike zone, called a ball) was 16.8%, tying him for the worst rate among all catchers with a sample size over 7900;

his oStr% of 6.0% (the percentage of pitches, caught outside the strike zone, called a strike) ranked dead last in MLB for catchers having as many opportunities as he had. Put simply, Castillo was great at making strikes look like balls, and inept at making balls look like strikes.

Sample Size Greater Than 7000 RAA zBall% oStr% +Calls Sample
Miguel Montero 24 11.00% 9.30% 180 9535
Mike Zunino 22.3 10.50% 9.20% 168 8983
Jonathan Lucroy 22.1 11.50% 9.20% 166 10064
Buster Posey 17.7 10.20% 8.90% 133 7360
Russell Martin 11.7 11.80% 8.70% 88 7523
Brian McCann 11.4 10.40% 7.90% 86 7698
Travis d'Arnaud 10.3 11.90% 8.40% 77 7795
Jason Castro 9 11.70% 8.00% 68 8655
Yan Gomes 8 11.00% 7.60% 60 9130
Yadier Molina 2.2 11.90% 7.50% 17 7380
Chris Iannetta -5.3 14.00% 7.20% -40 7616
Tyler Flowers -5.6 12.70% 6.90% -42 9682
Alex Avila -7 13.80% 7.20% -52 8971
Robinson Chirinos -7.9 14.20% 6.80% -60 7068
Devin Mesoraco -8.1 12.80% 6.30% -61 7772
Carlos Ruiz -10.3 15.60% 7.30% -77 8290
Salvador Perez -10.6 13.40% 6.60% -80 10730
Wilin Rosario -11.8 14.40% 6.50% -88 7261
Kurt Suzuki -19.8 15.70% 6.10% -149 8106
Dioner Navarro -20 16.80% 6.60% -150 8003
Welington Castillo -24.3 16.80% 6.00% -183 7903
Jarrod Saltalamacchia -24.4 17.30% 6.10% -183 7627



Showing their commitment to upgrading their pieces behind the plate, the Cubs announced the signing of David Ross this past Friday. He's another fantastic pitch framer, and someone the pitching staff can trust. In a sample size of only 3691, Ross was able to produce an RAA of 10.5, which was good for 13th in all of MLB. With this tandem of catchers, the Cubs have arguably the most elite combination of pitch framers heading into next season.

 

[chibears55]

Castillo’s zBall% (the percentage of pitches, caught within the strike zone, called a ball) was 16.8%, tying him for the worst rate among all catchers with a sample size over 7900;

his oStr% of 6.0% (the percentage of pitches, caught outside the strike zone, called a strike) ranked dead last in MLB for catchers having as many opportunities as he had. Put simply, Castillo was great at making strikes look like balls, and inept at making balls look like strikes.

Sample Size Greater Than 7000RAAzBall%oStr%+CallsSample
Miguel Montero2411.00%9.30%1809535
Mike Zunino22.310.50%9.20%1688983
Jonathan Lucroy22.111.50%9.20%16610064
Buster Posey17.710.20%8.90%1337360
Russell Martin11.711.80%8.70%887523
Brian McCann11.410.40%7.90%867698
Travis d'Arnaud10.311.90%8.40%777795
Jason Castro911.70%8.00%688655
Yan Gomes811.00%7.60%609130
Yadier Molina2.211.90%7.50%177380
Chris Iannetta-5.314.00%7.20%-407616
Tyler Flowers-5.612.70%6.90%-429682
Alex Avila-713.80%7.20%-528971
Robinson Chirinos-7.914.20%6.80%-607068
Devin Mesoraco-8.112.80%6.30%-617772
Carlos Ruiz-10.315.60%7.30%-778290
Salvador Perez-10.613.40%6.60%-8010730
Wilin Rosario-11.814.40%6.50%-887261
Kurt Suzuki-19.815.70%6.10%-1498106
Dioner Navarro-2016.80%6.60%-1508003
Welington Castillo-24.316.80%6.00%-1837903
Jarrod Saltalamacchia-24.417.30%6.10%-1837627



Showing their commitment to upgrading their pieces behind the plate, the Cubs announced the signing of David Ross this past Friday. He's another fantastic pitch framer, and someone the pitching staff can trust. In a sample size of only 3691, Ross was able to produce an RAA of 10.5, which was good for 13th in all of MLB. With this tandem of catchers, the Cubs have arguably the most elite combination of pitch framers heading into next season.

Percentage of pitches in strike zone called balls..

Wouldn't that have more to do with bad umpiring over a catcher receiving the pitch ?

 

[TL1961]

Castillo’s zBall% (the percentage of pitches, caught within the strike zone, called a ball) was 16.8%, tying him for the worst rate among all catchers with a sample size over 7900;

his oStr% of 6.0% (the percentage of pitches, caught outside the strike zone, called a strike) ranked dead last in MLB for catchers having as many opportunities as he had. Put simply, Castillo was great at making strikes look like balls, and inept at making balls look like strikes.

That's what Maddux always said a pitcher should do - Make strikes look like balls, and balls look like strikes - but to the batter, not to the ump!