theberserkfury
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The logic in this thread is just dizzying...
CuttyMarsh2012forOffice
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This is what happens when the Bears forum goes crazy after the most negative season we've had
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beckdawg
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If this is what you've got out of anything I've said you're read it entirely wrong.
CSF77
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If anything we have to look at it as a raw rookie being over matched. The number are pointless to extrapolate because he was over his head.
You have to take production of players at equal talent levels to for a honest opinion. Even then Baez is still developing as a player.
Take Rizzo. He put up 23 HR's in AAA with the Cubs then the next season he looked like a AAAA player. For the Pads he plain sucked. Last year he hits over 30 HR's.
Sure they are not the same type of player but there is a process of development going on here. Baez is not what he is going to be right now. By far and placing a label on him at this point is short sighted.
What we can take is raw tools set: Baez has plus power and he did walk around 8% in the minors. His 2 strike recon is still in development. He has not dealt with pitchers that can locate like that so his SO total is reflecting his ineptness.
But does that define him No I would call it a learning process.
beckdawg
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Again, you essentially asked why i would defend keeping Alcantara and not Baez. I never proclaimed that my opinion on Baez was the only one. If you disagree with my opinion fine. But I feel the type of player Alcantara will be has a greater history of success.
Perhaps I've just done a shitty job explaining my position because it sure as hell seems like few get what I'm saying. The way I look at the game is simple. It's been played over 100 years which means there are a pretty well defined player types. For example, you have low k/low walk high contact speed types. You also have 3 true outcome players who have high walk and high k rates. There's several more types but that's the gist of it. High K rate players with average or below walk rates historically don't fair well. That's not just looking at Baez's 229 PA major league sample size but also his 1350 minor league PAs. He's never been more than an average walk rate type at any level. And even in A ball he was above average in K rate. In AA/AAA his k rate spiked. In other words, this isn't me making up a sample size. He's always been a high K rate average to below average walk player.
So, when I form my opinion on Baez it's based on the fact that players who have played like he has both in the majors and the minors historically haven't been great players. It's not because I'm mad he's playing 2B over Alcantara or because I "hate" him as I've been accused. I honestly am not that emotionally involved. The whole "we don't know" argument is honestly fruitless because frankly we do know. It isn't a winning formula. I'm not pulling this idea out of my ass. There's substantial data. If you would like to make the argument that prime years Baez wont be a high K rate player then fine but thus far there is no evidence to support that change.
The basic math comes down to every percentage point in k rate costs you roughly 3 points of average while every point in walk rate adds 8-9 points of OBP. Every 10 points of BABIP is worth about 8 in average. In other words, to offset k rate you need roughly 10 points of BABIP for every 3% of k rate or 1 bb rate per 3% k rate in order to maintain the same on base. This is why typically when you see a 30% k rate player they have a 10%+ bb rate. The two offset each other and if that comes with ridiculous power a la Adam Dunn then all the better. Dunn was a career .237/.364/.490 with 15.8%/28.6% k rate. If you cut 5% off his walk rate he's in the .320's. You cut that back to league average of 7.6%(where Baez is) you're talking about a .290-.300 OBP. This is where I see things going with Baez unless he drastically changes his K rate. I'm not trying to be an asshole here but that's just how the math works. It's why I bring up names like Chris Carter and Pedro Alvarez when talking about Baez. Carter hit 37 homers last year but his .308 OBP killed his value. Alvarez is similar in that his career .307 OBP has killed much of his value despite the fact he's walking at a 9.2% career clip to go with his 29.6% career K rate. Alvarez wasn't just another guy. In 2010 he was considered the #8 prospect in baseball by baseball america.
JimJohnson
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Beck, you've explained yourself fine. But thank God you're not advising Baez, the way you talk makes it seem like the kid should hang up his bat and glove.
beckdawg
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Alvarez and Carter are starters. I'm fine with believing Baez ends up an every day starter. My issue is that given his status as a top 10 prospect people assume he's going to be a star. I wouldn't even say it's impossible for him to become one. Hypothetically, IF he got his k rate down to say 25% his combo of ridiculous power with good speed probably would make him an MVP candidate especially out of 2B(think soriano with the yanks). Put another way, Baez is a collection of very interesting tools that is limited by his K rate.
CSF77
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I would say Baez should hit .230 next year. That is a realistic BA with his strike out rate. But, he has show the ability to sky rocket in BA when he is on. He is the type that can hit at a .400 clip forcacweek or 2 and put .040-.060 on his BA in that span. That IMO is Sori type of impact. Sori could carry the Cubs on his streaks and I see that in Baez
CSF77
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I think Alacantara will end up a quality player. But I see he as one of those tough choices when Almora and Russell promote. Any value he gains could also be used as trade value.
I think we all get it that some are going to end up used to acquire pitching.
I think we all get it that some are going to end up used to acquire pitching.
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Um sorta, as long as I have tracked him. He seems to really just start off slow. Then, he will take off and really has no long stretches of being bad. He will throw in a 3 or 4 strikeout game in there every now and then but then would hit 2 bombs. He is not as streaky as some may think. Its when he adjusted in the minors he really just destroyed those pitchers.
Boobaby1
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The unfortunate thing is he has adjusted (somewhat) to minor league pitching, but he still had contact rate issues there and they are still lingering. I don't see him clearing them up. Some guys just don't do it.
Not that he won't hit bombs, but the Cubs have to decide if the value is there in keeping him, or trading him. If his value starts to go up, which I hope, he easily will be trade bait for pitching.
It's sexy knowing that he can drive the ball out with the swing of a bat, but it's also worrisome knowing in a key situation, that pitchers will exploit his weaknesses rather easily, especially at this level.
He has the greatest flop rate right now of all of the Cubs major prospects in my opinion.
And yes, I know he is young and can improve, but he has a monumental task in front of him. I hope I am dead wrong on him.
CSF77
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I Think they build up his value before entertaining any trades.
It is when you do not want to trade a player that his value is peaking. Not when you want to toss him. Right now you couldn't get a guy like Syndaguard. If he is peaking then you are thinking Syndaguard and....
TL1961
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Well, one comparison that has been made, has been to Adm Dunn due to HRs and strikeouts. All or nothing at the plate type players. Maybe that comes to be the case. Adam Dunn had value, but it was always diminished by the fact that he was that all or nothing guy at the plate with no real defensive position.
To be honest, if you tell me one of our guys will be another Adam Dunn, I would initially be disappointed. But f you told me he'd have over 400 HR's, certainly we wouldn't be disappointed. So if he can get to that level we'd be lucky.
But Adam Dunn as a middle infielder? Suddenly that sounds a lot more valuable.
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My favorite teams
If Alcantara ends up a quality player, the Cubs might trade Almora. Maddon could end up using Mendy in a Zobrist-type capacity.
Boobaby1
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If Baez can also give me Adam Dunn's .364 career OBP, then I am all in. It would be hard pressed for Baez to come anywhere near that if you ask me, so he better learn a little plate discipline as he grows.
Dunn's strikeouts were lessened by his ability to also take walks. Could be they feared him hitting it out, but with Baez, depending on where he is in the order, they will probably pitch to get to him rather than around him. Just my opinion.
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O/U on Wins
81.5
What are you guys picking?
81.5
What are you guys picking?
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Baez has a way better hit tool then Dunn. Baez is also way more athletic.
Phil Rogers @philgrogers Dec 22
Through six games, #Cubs @javy23baez has a 1.234 OPS in Puerto Rico. Hitting .409 despite nine strikeouts.
Javier Baez has 10 strikeouts in eight winter ball games, but they came in this order: 3, 1, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0.
Javier Baez ripped another homer in the Puerto Rican Winter League last night, together with another couple hits in the game. He’s now batting a LOL-worthy .444/.476/.889 in the league, but there are some enormous caveats here: we’re talking about five games and 20 plate appearances. That’s nothing. Further, Baez has struck out 8 times in those 20 plate appearances (40%). So don’t go nuts about the slash line … but also don’t go nuts about the strikeouts. Hitting well is always better than hitting poorly. But I don’t think we can take anything – good or bad – away from Baez’s performance thus far. That will probably remain the case until the season ends (unless doesn’t strike out again the whole rest of the way, or strikes out in every single at bat the rest of the way – and, even then, I’d still probably say, “Yeah, but … “).
Arismendy Alcantara is also crushing Winter Ball (he’s in the Dominican Republic), hitting .324/.395/.544 with 4 homers, 7 walks, and 15 strikeouts in 19 games. He hasn’t been in the DWL quite long enough to qualify, but, if he did, his OPS would be third best in the league right now. As with Baez, don’t take too much away from it (here’s where you add in the dicey pitching they’re facing) – but crushing is generally better than scuffling.
Phil Rogers @philgrogers Dec 22
Through six games, #Cubs @javy23baez has a 1.234 OPS in Puerto Rico. Hitting .409 despite nine strikeouts.
Javier Baez has 10 strikeouts in eight winter ball games, but they came in this order: 3, 1, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0.
Javier Baez ripped another homer in the Puerto Rican Winter League last night, together with another couple hits in the game. He’s now batting a LOL-worthy .444/.476/.889 in the league, but there are some enormous caveats here: we’re talking about five games and 20 plate appearances. That’s nothing. Further, Baez has struck out 8 times in those 20 plate appearances (40%). So don’t go nuts about the slash line … but also don’t go nuts about the strikeouts. Hitting well is always better than hitting poorly. But I don’t think we can take anything – good or bad – away from Baez’s performance thus far. That will probably remain the case until the season ends (unless doesn’t strike out again the whole rest of the way, or strikes out in every single at bat the rest of the way – and, even then, I’d still probably say, “Yeah, but … “).
Arismendy Alcantara is also crushing Winter Ball (he’s in the Dominican Republic), hitting .324/.395/.544 with 4 homers, 7 walks, and 15 strikeouts in 19 games. He hasn’t been in the DWL quite long enough to qualify, but, if he did, his OPS would be third best in the league right now. As with Baez, don’t take too much away from it (here’s where you add in the dicey pitching they’re facing) – but crushing is generally better than scuffling.
beckdawg
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He's absolutely not Adam Dunn. I made this pretty clear when talking about his walk rate. Dunn survived with a high OBP because he was a 12%+ IIRC walk rate. Baez both in the majors and minors has been roughly half that.
If you want an absolute best case of what Baez will be based on his current numbers adjusted obviously for progress it's probably Bo Jackson. Jackson was a career .250/.309/.474 hitter with a 7.6%/32.0% walk/k rate. Those numbers are fairly well in line with Baez's minor league numbers not to mention like Jackson, Baez has some phenomenal tools.
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Glad the first post I saw today was people attempting to compare Javier Baez and Adam Dunn.
Thanks guys!
Thanks guys!
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162-0. So, I am taking the over! :-v