Boobaby1
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brett05
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Your bi-polar is kicking in.
The fact is that the Cubs lost trade value for Castillo when they signed Ross. The "fixed" value has been diminished.
brett05
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Jenna said what?
I'll take an order of tots
beckdawg
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Top end speed? He stole 29 bases last year. It clearly would have been more had he been ready for the majors. As for his walk rate, it wasn't stellar but he has walked at a 10% rate over 130 games before. Additionally, stats out of winter leagues have him walking at a higher rate. Either way, if he hits 20 HRs and steals 30 bases in the majors he's going to be at least a 2.5-3 fWAR player regardless. Sure feels like you're propping Revere up pretty hard. He's empty speed and that's it. He's this generations Juan Pierre. His best season was 2012 where he basically played gold glove level defense(in the corners he was below average CF) and he was still only worth 3 fWAR.
Ian Desmond hit .255/.313/.430 last season with 25/25 with average SS defense and was worth 4.1 fWAR. Brian Dozier hit .242/.345/.416 with 23/21 was a -4.6 UZR/150 and was worth 4.6 fWAR. Alexi Ramirez hit .273/.305/.408 with 15/21 and was worth 3.3 fWAR. Brett Gardner hit .256/.327/.422 with 17/21 and was worth 3.2 fWAR. In other words, Alcantara doesn't even have to be that good in order to be worth more than Revere. He could easily meet any one of those stat lines and possibly even be better. For example, would it be that out of the question to see him as a .270 hitter? That's basically what he was in the minors if you adjust 20 or so points for the majors.
Honestly, the cubs would be stupid to package him for anything unless you're getting a young premier talent and frankly I'm not even sure that's worth it. He's got a very real shot at being a 4 win player and if he improves he very well could be worth more than that. Even some of Jose Reyes' 6 win seasons aren't out of the question given their similar skill set.
theberserkfury
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Everybody keeps putting Mendy in a corner... *sigh*
CSF77
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Until he proves he can play at that level vs legit talent vs winter ball talent this point is mute.
CSF77
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The only thing I trust this year is Castro, Rizzo and Soler. All 3 proved that they can play at the major league level. Montenero in decline is still proven. Valbuena is a pretty good stand in at 3B. Coghlan needs to prove that he can do it every year vs a good year and 2 bad.
Another thing that bothers me Beck. You bash Baez on one hand then defend Alcantara on the other. I get it you are still ticked they gave Baez 2B and your judgement is sqewed right now. But be objective here. Neither are proven talent. Until they grind out a 162 at a high level neither should be pumped up. I would say that about Soler also. So I'll toss his name in that mix also.
Another thing that bothers me Beck. You bash Baez on one hand then defend Alcantara on the other. I get it you are still ticked they gave Baez 2B and your judgement is sqewed right now. But be objective here. Neither are proven talent. Until they grind out a 162 at a high level neither should be pumped up. I would say that about Soler also. So I'll toss his name in that mix also.
beckdawg
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I couldn't care less about Baez's 200 PAs sample. My concerns with him go back to prior to 2014 when he was coming off a great 2013 AA performance. I'm not joking about that I can literally go dig up the post I made about prospects by the number prior to last season if you'd like. So what's the difference between Baez and Alcantara then? In order to be a productive player Baez probably has to cut his K rate 15%. That's something that rarely if ever happens even when you're talking about young players in their first appearance. And even if he manages to do that he's going to be a pretty shitty player in terms of OBP anyways. In other words, to reach a point where his massive power turns him into a star level player he's basically got to become a different player than he's been both in the minors and the majors.
On the other hand I just listed 4 people who have a similar skill set to what Alcantara does and who aren't exactly above average hitters. Only one of the 4 has a OBP over .330. All 4 of those players were worth a similar value to what Castro has been year to year over his career. For the sake of argument, let's say both Baez and Alcantara improve their average 50 points which would be reasonable for young players adjusting. Alcantara becomes a .255/.304 hitter while Baez is a .219/.277 hitter. At .255/.304 Alcantara probably hits 20 HRs(he had 10 in the majors last year hitting around .200) and steals close to 30 bases. That basically makes him Alexi Ramirez who had 3.3 fWAR. He might actually be worth slightly more given more power and possibly more steals but let's call him a 3 win player. At .220/.280 Baez might hit 30-40 HRs but even if he does he's really not that much more valuable than Chris Carter who hit .227/.308/.491 with 37 and was worth 1.7 fWAR. An argument can be made that Baez has more speed and that would give him slightly more value. However, given his issues getting on base I find it difficult to believe he'll capitalize on that.
It has nothing to do with being "ticked." It's simple logic. Alcantara has to improve far less to be a productive player than Baez does.
TL1961
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Alcantara was rated #18 prospect in all of the Minors last year.
I know the ratings aren't guarantees of anything, but it seems that the people who rated him #18 see a lot more than some Cub fans. Seems many fans consider AA to be a light hitting, so-so utility player.
I agree with Beckdawg - Mendy has value! I joked with my "bold" prediction and said 25 SB, when I should have said many more. He has speed, some pop, and will play good D. He is young, cost controlled, and is considered to be a very good prospect. I can't understand why everybody has him being either a) a "super sub or b) a trade piece.
He clearly tailed off at the end of last year, but when he came up, the offense immediately had a different feel. I recall one of his first games, He came up in the bottom of the 9th, walked, stole second, and scored on a ball nobody else on the team could have scored on. We got a run on 1 hit when it would have taken three the previous week. Not saying he's Billy Hamilton, but a guy who can steal and score from 2nd is something we, unfortunately, rarely have. And it has value.
I know the ratings aren't guarantees of anything, but it seems that the people who rated him #18 see a lot more than some Cub fans. Seems many fans consider AA to be a light hitting, so-so utility player.
I agree with Beckdawg - Mendy has value! I joked with my "bold" prediction and said 25 SB, when I should have said many more. He has speed, some pop, and will play good D. He is young, cost controlled, and is considered to be a very good prospect. I can't understand why everybody has him being either a) a "super sub or b) a trade piece.
He clearly tailed off at the end of last year, but when he came up, the offense immediately had a different feel. I recall one of his first games, He came up in the bottom of the 9th, walked, stole second, and scored on a ball nobody else on the team could have scored on. We got a run on 1 hit when it would have taken three the previous week. Not saying he's Billy Hamilton, but a guy who can steal and score from 2nd is something we, unfortunately, rarely have. And it has value.
DJMoore_is_fat
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Ichiro was a great player but to say he's top-10 of all time is crazy.
TL1961
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or moot.
brett05
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Or it could be that here is a weakness right now in the minors.
I used to tell myself when I was taking the standardized tests that being better than 95% of others in math does not mean you are good in math. It just means you are better than others at it which may or may not be something.
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It makes my head hurt when people use samples wrong or try to manipulate the samples to fit their agenda. I'm gonna let the kids play while I drink cold beer and see who makes it and who doesn't. Why? Because that is only effing way to find it
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JP Hochbaum
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Baez could easily approach hitting .250-.270 if he simply developed better plate discipline, which the coaching staff admittedly said they left alone last year. Then he could use a little tweaking of his stance as well. But with better plate discipline, getting fewer two strike counts, would put him in a better position to put bat on ball.
This is exactly what he did in the minors in every stop he had, don't see why his tendencies would change in the majors.
This is exactly what he did in the minors in every stop he had, don't see why his tendencies would change in the majors.
CSF77
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Again. Until they are able to perform at a high level vs MAJOR LEAGUE pitching. Every projecting is just hollow view points.
Projections are just that. They are not proven player values vs major league talent.
beckdawg
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If this is your view point then why are you even discussing prospects? You brought up what you thought was a contradiction in my opinion. I answered with my reasoning. I fail to see your issue.
beckdawg
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You just described forming an opinion. If the samples were ever crystal clear there wouldn't be an argument to be had.
JimJohnson
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There are informed opinions and then there are uninformed ones. There is a difference.
CSF77
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pretty much sums it up. Saying a player will do anything until he has done something vs said talent level is wrong. I even put Soler into that boat as he has not grinded out a 162 yet. Shoot we were worried about Castro and Rizzo up until they turned it around last year.
I "hope" that they all pan out but saying this guy will because of this metric or w/e else that can justify it and saying this guy wont for this reason ...other than what they are doing vs said talent level is just opinion and not fact.