2018 Bears - Perception does NOT equal Reality

[Monster]

That is a bad take.

Daniel imploded on himself. He missed wide open WRs and running lanes on just about every play. Let alone the 6 turnover worth plays.

It was hard to watch...

 

[Warrior Spirit]

26,411 garbage posts...

You only have 5441. Think you got confused.

 

[WestCoastBearsFan]

Hahaha. You know nothing. QB Rating and passer rating are synonymous with those who know about it at all.

There are about 10 games Mitch has had that are statistically worse than the one Daniel just had. That's just a fact and people like you fear facts.

No. quarterback rating is an entirely different statistic than passer rating moron. Quarterback rating (or QBR) takes into account rushing into its grades where passer rating does not. That’s why chevy’s passer rating was significantly higher than his QBR because it doesn’t take into account him running into his own sacks and looking like a deer in fucking headlights. Like I said you’re an idiot and a troll and I hope you are banned soon. Mitch hasn’t had a single game where he was statistically as bad as that disaster.


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[Warrior Spirit]

No. quarterback rating is an entirely different statistic than passer rating moron. Quarterback rating (or QBR) takes into account rushing into its grades where passer rating does not. That’s why chevy’s passer rating was significantly higher than his QBR because it doesn’t take into account him running into his own sacks and looking like a deer in fucking headlights. Like I said you’re an idiot and a troll and I hope you are banned soon. Mitch hasn’t had a single game where he was statistically as bad as that disaster.


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[Warrior Spirit]

Can somebody who knows anything about football point out something in the OP that isn't factually correct?

 

[BearFanJohn]

The OP does have some real truth. Sound and accurate analysis but most of it viewed through a pretty negative lens. And the final scenario (prediction?) may certainly happen. But I don’t think the scenario is accurate and I don’t think AR “tanked”. Though the Packers may realize addition through McArthy’s subtraction. I think the Bears beat the Packers and the 49ers. The Rams is a toss up at best. Vikings game is still a while away but having to beat MN there to win the division isn’t appealing. Although, the Vikings have some football ahead of them, too.

I think the Bears make the playoffs. Whatever happens after that is a wonderful improvement over last year. Even if some are disappointed, a playoff year would far exceed most of our expectations. I think playing the first game at home is entirely possible.

 

[PrideisBears]

Spartan, normally i would read your stuff my friend but your lack of the warrior spirit in the Giants game before it was over was concerning

 

[theOHIOSTATE!]

Can somebody who knows anything about football point out something in the OP that isn't factually correct?

It was not a widely held belief that KM had to be the top Def. player in the league for his addition to be considered a success.

That is not factually correct- it is a strawman argument.

 

[Warrior Spirit]

The OP does have some real truth. Sound and accurate analysis but most of it viewed through a pretty negative lens. And the final scenario (prediction?) may certainly happen. But I don’t think the scenario is accurate and I don’t think AR “tanked”. Though the Packers may realize addition through McArthy’s subtraction. I think the Bears beat the Packers and the 49ers. The Rams is a toss up at best. Vikings game is still a while away but having to beat MN there to win the division isn’t appealing. Although, the Vikings have some football ahead of them, too.

I think the Bears make the playoffs. Whatever happens after that is a wonderful improvement over last year. Even if some are disappointed, a playoff year would far exceed most of our expectations. I think playing the first game at home is entirely possible.

I don't think it's so negative. Didn't really say anything that negative. It's just as fans of a team, you're usually gonna see that team and its players as being better than they are.

Don't really think Rodger's tank but haven't seen the intensity there in his play as of late and I'd expect to see that against the Bears.

It would seem like Bears are in the driver's seat to win the division but the Vikes will be a tougher game for the Bears on the road. The Vikes also don't have an extremely hard schedule and can put themselves in a real good position by beating the Seahawks.

 

[Ej63090]

Spartan, normally i would read your stuff my friend but your lack of the warrior spirit in the Giants game before it was over was concerning

This.

 

[Warrior Spirit]

It was not a widely held belief that KM had to be the top Def. player in the league for his addition to be considered a success.

That is not factually correct- it is a strawman argument.

I didn't say that. Said it was the general perception. Has he been bad for the Bears? No. Has he been as disruptive as he was in Oakland? No. Those are facts.

 

[BaBaBlacksheep]

It was hard to watch...

Almost like reading a Spartan post.

 

[PrideisBears]

I didn't say that. Said it was the general perception. Has he been bad for the Bears? No. Has he been as disruptive as he was in Oakland? No. Those are facts.

Are they?

 

[Warrior Spirit]

Almost like reading a Spartan post.

I can help you with the big words, brother.

 

[Warrior Spirit]

Are they?

As pointed to in OP, absolutely. I used QB pressures to make the point.

 

[WestCoastBearsFan]

Are they?

No. He has 9 sacks in 10 games played. In a 16 game season that’s good for 14 sacks. That seems pretty disruptive to me.


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[Warrior Spirit]

Spartan, normally i would read your stuff my friend but your lack of the warrior spirit in the Giants game before it was over was concerning

I wasn't one of those on the field lacking it. If I was the Giants would have melted from all the warrior spirit oozing out of my every pore.

 

[BaBaBlacksheep]

The perception is the Bears are having a great year in the genius HC's first year. The reality is they have been fortuitous and good fortune doesn't hold up for long, and Nagy's not a genius. The team has relied heavily on their weak schedule and league leading number of turnovers and, as we saw last Sunday, when that turnover advantage isn't there bad things happen. Same could be said of their loss to the faltering Dolphins.

For the most part, this year, the Bears have played solid football and limited mistakes while taking full advantage of the good field position provided by all the turnovers as well as penalties. Bears opponents have given up an average of 20 yards more in penalties per game. When all has gone well for them, it went very well and that helped boost the overall perception of the team as they blew out struggling teams in Buffalo and the Bucs and then recently secured 3 consecutive wins in divisional games. Then, of course, the wheels of the Chevy fell off in Jersey. Say good bye to any remote possibility of a bye. Time to look at the reality of the situation. Is this team really that good? Are its top players as good as perceived when the rose colored glasses are removed?

When the Bears brought in Khalil Mack, the perception was they were getting the best defensive player in the league and it instantly boosted their chances as SB contenders. The reality is he has not been the best defender in the league, does not occupy several blockers on every play, as perceived by many in these forii, and it's never wise to assume a player can play at that extremely high level he played at in the past. You seldom see players get DPOY more than once. Bears have only ever had 2 players win it and only 1 of them won it a second time. So, no, Mack is not way above all other defenders and has not had near his most productive season with the Bears. He has not been as disruptive as he was with the Raiders. In his DPOY year Mack led the league in amount of pressure (sacks+hits+hurries)put on opposing QBs. Last year he was second only to Von Miller. This year, with the Bears, he barely makes the top 15. While the Bears get their fair share of sacks, we usually have not seen the consistent pressure put on QBs. The effects of that were also seen in that last loss to the Giants. Yes, their QB was sacked 3 times but, other than those sacks, the completely immobile Eli was given a whole lot of time to pick his targets on most other pass plays.

With the Bears offense, the perception has been they've looked good, even very good, at times and their QB has established himself. The truth is the QB has only had about 4 good games out of the 10 and they were against weaker teams who were struggling. In the other 6 games, he has a rating of 73 with 6 TDs and 8 Ints. And he and the Bears offense have relied heavily on good field position provided by the defense. On plays in the Bears own end of the field, Trubisky has an 82 rating with 1 TD and 5 INTs. Bears would also do best to avoid close games with Mitchell. When there is a 1-8 point differential, Trubisky has a 79 rating with 7 TDs and 6 Ints.

As we enter the final 4 game stretch, the Bears have but one sure win left in the current worst NFL team, SanFran. The other 3 games will be tough. The Packers are the worst, but Rodgers is done tanking for the removal of McCarthy so will be going all out to beat the Bears again. Despite the manner in which CCS twits minimized the loss to the Giants, it comes with serious repercussions. It is now more likely that the final game of the season, when the Bears drive the wobbly wheeled Maserati to Minnesota, will be the deciding factor as to who will win the division and have home field advantage on WC weekend. In such a scenario, a home win by Minnesota would mean they'd, again, have home field advantage if they play the Bears a third time in the playoffs.

When are people going to stop with this BS of "sure wins" or "guaranteed losses"? There are no guarantees in the NFL. Any team can win or lose any game.

 

[modo]

You are certainly welcome to your opinion, however it is wrong on a few counts.


A lot of good teams rely on turnovers...that is generally what makes them good teams. With few exceptions, most of the playoff teams are positive over the years. Part of being a good team is taking away the ball more than the opponent. It seems you are trying to provoke the notion that a team is only really good when it overcomes a bunch of turnovers regularly. That is false and has statistically a fact in the NFL.

Again you somehow want to bring up the fact that the Bears play mistake free football and that has served them well, but somehow points to the fact that they aren't a good team because their opponents made more mistakes. I'll refer you to the first paragraph on what good teams do on a regular basis.....they make less mistakes than their opponents.

Your paragraph on Mack is just plain ridiculous.....Mack is a great, future Hall of Fame player in his prime. If you don't understand this, you don't understand football.

Your opinion that our new QB has had only 4 good games is very debatable. To say he did against weaker opponents I will concede. I will state that I don't believe he is a finished product yet so any judgment on he has arrived or he's a bust is false.

The rest of the season is yet to be determined so you, stating with any certainty on how it will unfold is laughable at this point.



I would argue the Bears are certainly an imperfect team with a Head coach that is still learning, along with a team that is still learning.

But by most sane definitions they are a good team. Imperfect, probably not elite, but good......get over it, and yourself.

 

[Warrior Spirit]

No. He has 9 sacks in 10 games played. In a 16 game season that’s good for 14 sacks. That seems pretty disruptive to me.


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Averaging less than 1 sack per game isn't really going to do much for a team. When speaking of total QB pressures, you're talking about a more consistent harassment of opposing QBs. Total pressures would include not only sacks but QB hits and hurries as well.