The perception is the Bears are having a great year in the genius HC's first year. The reality is they have been fortuitous and good fortune doesn't hold up for long, and Nagy's not a genius. The team has relied heavily on their weak schedule and league leading number of turnovers and, as we saw last Sunday, when that turnover advantage isn't there bad things happen. Same could be said of their loss to the faltering Dolphins.
For the most part, this year, the Bears have played solid football and limited mistakes while taking full advantage of the good field position provided by all the turnovers as well as penalties. Bears opponents have given up an average of 20 yards more in penalties per game. When all has gone well for them, it went very well and that helped boost the overall perception of the team as they blew out struggling teams in Buffalo and the Bucs and then recently secured 3 consecutive wins in divisional games. Then, of course, the wheels of the Chevy fell off in Jersey. Say good bye to any remote possibility of a bye. Time to look at the reality of the situation. Is this team really that good? Are its top players as good as perceived when the rose colored glasses are removed?
When the Bears brought in Khalil Mack, the perception was they were getting the best defensive player in the league and it instantly boosted their chances as SB contenders. The reality is he has not been the best defender in the league, does not occupy several blockers on every play, as perceived by many in these forii, and it's never wise to assume a player can play at that extremely high level he played at in the past. You seldom see players get DPOY more than once. Bears have only ever had 2 players win it and only 1 of them won it a second time. So, no, Mack is not way above all other defenders and has not had near his most productive season with the Bears. He has not been as disruptive as he was with the Raiders. In his DPOY year Mack led the league in amount of pressure (sacks+hits+hurries)put on opposing QBs. Last year he was second only to Von Miller. This year, with the Bears, he barely makes the top 15. While the Bears get their fair share of sacks, we usually have not seen the consistent pressure put on QBs. The effects of that were also seen in that last loss to the Giants. Yes, their QB was sacked 3 times but, other than those sacks, the completely immobile Eli was given a whole lot of time to pick his targets on most other pass plays.
With the Bears offense, the perception has been they've looked good, even very good, at times and their QB has established himself. The truth is the QB has only had about 4 good games out of the 10 and they were against weaker teams who were struggling. In the other 6 games, he has a rating of 73 with 6 TDs and 8 Ints. And he and the Bears offense have relied heavily on good field position provided by the defense. On plays in the Bears own end of the field, Trubisky has an 82 rating with 1 TD and 5 INTs. Bears would also do best to avoid close games with Mitchell. When there is a 1-8 point differential, Trubisky has a 79 rating with 7 TDs and 6 Ints.
As we enter the final 4 game stretch, the Bears have but one sure win left in the current worst NFL team, SanFran. The other 3 games will be tough. The Packers are the worst, but Rodgers is done tanking for the removal of McCarthy so will be going all out to beat the Bears again. Despite the manner in which CCS twits minimized the loss to the Giants, it comes with serious repercussions. It is now more likely that the final game of the season, when the Bears drive the wobbly wheeled Maserati to Minnesota, will be the deciding factor as to who will win the division and have home field advantage on WC weekend. In such a scenario, a home win by Minnesota would mean they'd, again, have home field advantage if they play the Bears a third time in the playoffs.
