A Top Ten System Before The Garza Trade

[FirstTimer]

you can have an opinion, and project how you would like.

Not what I asked.

Let's try this again:

DewsSox,

If we can't use one season of Castro's stats at the major league level to project him. And we can't use MiLB stats. How do you suggest we project the player? What evidence and analytical process should we use?

Thank you,

FirstTimer

I am talking about the members who are bluntly stating that he will be great based on 1 year in the mlb and his career numbers in the minors and not even considering that he could flop.

And I'm not talking to them or about them.

I'm directly asking you to back up the statements you made.

Quit avoiding the question and trying(poorly) to talk around it.

 

[DewsSox79]

Not what I asked.

Let's try this again:

DewsSox,

If we can't use one season of Castro's stats at the major league level to project him. And we can't use MiLB stats. How do you suggest we project the player? What evidence and analytical process should we use?

Thank you,

FirstTimer



And I'm not talking to them or about them.

I'm directly asking you to back up the statements you made.

Quit avoiding the question and trying(poorly) to talk around it.

:facepalm:


Not avoiding anything.

My whole entire point of this is using minor league numbers and 1 year in the majors to Bluntly state that a specifc player is going to be great, without stating there is a realistic chance that the player realistically could fail to become what the expectations are.

I dont know what is so hard to understand.

 

[AddisonStation]

:facepalm:


Not avoiding anything.

My whole entire point of this is using minor league numbers and 1 year in the majors to Bluntly state that a specifc player is going to be great, without stating there is a realistic chance that the player realistically could fail to become what the expectations are.

I dont know what is so hard to understand.

I actually agree with this. If Castro has a worse season this year than last I wont be surprised and no one should be.

I think he's the real deal but if he fails it really shouldn't be considered a shock.

 

[Captain Obvious]

you can have an opinion, and project how you would like. I am talking about the members who are bluntly stating that he will be great based on 1 year in the mlb and his career numbers in the minors and not even considering that he could flop.

:facepalm:


Not avoiding anything.

My whole entire point of this is using minor league numbers and 1 year in the majors to Bluntly state that a specifc player is going to be great, without stating there is a realistic chance that the player realistically could fail to become what the expectations are.

I dont know what is so hard to understand.

Where exactly did I say that he would be great? I said that he could easily be a top 3 SS(in terms of OPS). That's not exactly saying a lot, considering that he had a .755 OPS(about 30 points higher than the MLB average) and was the 4th best. While there is about a 55 point differential there, he is just 20. I think he definitely could be a great SS and relatively soon, too. However, I have never said that he can't fizzle out, but I never said he would be great, either. Especially considering that SS is the weakest hitting position.

While Castro could fail, it's ridiculous to think he will. *This is not saying he will be great. This is saying that it's ridiculous to think he will fail. You have used nothing to back up that point at all.

 

[Captain Obvious]

I actually agree with this. If Castro has a worse season this year than last I wont be surprised and no one should be.

I think he's the real deal but if he fails it really shouldn't be considered a shock.

I would be shocked if he fails. There is nothing that says he should, so I'm curious as to what you are basing that off of.

 

[Jntg4]

Where exactly did I say that he would be great? I said that he could easily be a top 3 SS(in terms of OPS). That's not exactly saying a lot, considering that he had a .755 OPS(about 30 points higher than the MLB average) and was the 4th best. While there is about a 55 point differential there, he is just 20. I think he definitely could be a great SS and relatively soon, too. However, I have never said that he can't fizzle out, but I never said he would be great, either. Especially considering that SS is the weakest hitting position.

While Castro could fail, it's ridiculous to think he will. *This is not saying he will be great. This is saying that it's ridiculous to think he will fail. You have used nothing to back up that point at all.

Dews never said that he WILL fail either, he said that could.

 

[FirstTimer]

Not avoiding anything.

Yes you are.

You have yet to answer my question.

My whole entire point of this is using minor league numbers and 1 year in the majors to Bluntly state that a specifc player is going to be great

Again. Not what I'm asking nor do I care about this "point".

You said:

I am not stating that he will step back or blow for sure, I am calling out those who are stating bluntly that he will be great by using 1 year of MLB numbers to back up an arguement. Minor League numbers should not be used on trying to project out a player in the MLB IMO

So again I ask:




DewsSox,

If we can't use one season of Castro's stats at the major league level to project him. And we can't use MiLB stats. How do you suggest we project the player? What evidence and analytical process should we use?

Thank you,

FirstTimer




Whether or not you are projecting a player to be "great", "good", or "bad" is irrelevant to my question. I didn't ask how we should project a player to a certain level. I asked how we should(according to your "theory") project him(anyone) to do anything at all, including "possibly failing".

I'm still waiting to hear how you project players...any players...

Where exactly did I say that he would be great? I said that he could easily be a top 3 SS(in terms of OPS). That's not exactly saying a lot, considering that he had a .755 OPS(about 30 points higher than the MLB average) and was the 4th best. While there is about a 55 point differential there, he is just 20. I think he definitely could be a great SS and relatively soon, too. However, I have never said that he can't fizzle out, but I never said he would be great, either. Especially considering that SS is the weakest hitting position.

While Castro could fail, it's ridiculous to think he will. *This is not saying he will be great. This is saying that it's ridiculous to think he will fail. You have used nothing to back up that point at all.

Bingo.

Dews never said that he WILL fail either, he said that could.

And I don't think CO would deny that there is a chance he could but any statistical analysis we have in front of us would show he has more of a chance to stay at least good rather than fail. But like I said above at this point that is irrelevant to my question and point. I have yet to see DewsSox defend his idea of projecting a player while not using one year of MLB stats and we can't use MiLB stats as well. I'm still trying to figure out how he "projects" players if he doesn't take those into account. Whether it be Castro, or anyone else.

Castro at this point to me is a non-factor. I don't care what he projects him to be. I'm pointing out what appears to be a massive flaw/hole in his methodology in general.

...

And I continue to wait for him to answer the question.....

 

[X]

guys, predicting a player's future is sketchy...I mean...kind of like, you can plan a pretty picnic but you can't predict the weather... (thx, outkast)....
Starlin had a real good year, but most 2nd year players have ups and downs...
Pitchers have more film on them..so they'll probably have the edge against him, especially early in the season...and once he's settled and comfortable, he'll bounce back...just kind of the way it is...

If you're predicting anything about Castro after October 2011, let's just wait until we're at that point and re-evaluate.

Btw, I think Castro is only slightly above average, but I really want to rally around him. However, I think if he's the best player on the team, we're gonna have a long freaking season.

 

[Jntg4]

guys, predicting a player's future is sketchy...I mean...kind of like, you can plan a pretty picnic but you can't predict the weather... (thx, outkast)....
Starlin had a real good year, but most 2nd year players have ups and downs...
Pitchers have more film on them..so they'll probably have the edge against him, especially early in the season...and once he's settled and comfortable, he'll bounce back...just kind of the way it is...

If you're predicting anything about Castro after October 2011, let's just wait until we're at that point and re-evaluate.

Btw, I think Castro is only slightly above average, but I really want to rally around him. However, I think if he's the best player on the team, we're gonna have a long freaking season.

A little above average now? Or at his peak? ???

 

[AddisonStation]

I would be shocked if he fails. There is nothing that says he should, so I'm curious as to what you are basing that off of.

Because its baseball. Baseball is hard. Starlin is young. Who knows? And keep in mind i said i don't think he will fail. I just wouldn't be shocked if he struggles.

 

[Jntg4]

Because its baseball. Baseball is hard. Starlin is young. Who knows? And keep in mind i said i don't think he will fail. I just wouldn't be shocked if he struggles.

There's a difference between struggling and failing...

 

[X]

A little above average now? Or at his peak? ???

I'm thinking at his peak he'll be slightly above average. And I hope I'm completely wrong...however, like I said in the last post...I'll re-evaluate at the AS Break and in October.

 

[FirstTimer]

Btw, I think Castro is only slightly above average, but I really want to rally around him. However, I think if he's the best player on the team, we're gonna have a long freaking season.

Agreed.

I don't see Castro ever becoming Jeter-esque in his prime: BA well over .300 15-20 HR's 70+ RBI's so I don't think he'll ever be that guy to really lead a team in that sense.

Castro to me projects at a guy at his peak of maybe around .310 or so. 10HR's 60-70RBI's. And that would be for a few season peak rather than a career average.

Based on what we have seen and know of him I think he can end up being a very nice piece and a very good player, however I don't think he will ever be "the guy" on a World Series team. For the Cubs to do well this year Castro needs to end up being the 3rd of 4th best player on this team at best behind guys like Byrd, A-Ram,Big-Z, Maybe Colvin, Sori (if he can pull one more season out of his arse) etc. Castro could be an important cog this season and in seasons on down the line but if Castro is the best player for the Cubs the majority of his career it's going to be a very disappointing time.

 

[DewsSox79]

Where exactly did I say that he would be great? I said that he could easily be a top 3 SS(in terms of OPS). That's not exactly saying a lot, considering that he had a .755 OPS(about 30 points higher than the MLB average) and was the 4th best. While there is about a 55 point differential there, he is just 20. I think he definitely could be a great SS and relatively soon, too. However, I have never said that he can't fizzle out, but I never said he would be great, either. Especially considering that SS is the weakest hitting position.

While Castro could fail, it's ridiculous to think he will. *This is not saying he will be great. This is saying that it's ridiculous to think he will fail. You have used nothing to back up that point at all.

learn to read.

 

[DewsSox79]

I actually agree with this. If Castro has a worse season this year than last I wont be surprised and no one should be.

I think he's the real deal but if he fails it really shouldn't be considered a shock.

Finally someone besides jntg can read. exactly what i was trying to point out.

 

[Jntg4]

Finally someone besides jntg can read. exactly what i was trying to point out.

I only learned two days ago. :shrug:

Everyone made a big deal out of you saying that he could fail, and they even said he could, LOL.

 

[Captain Obvious]

learn to read.

You are one to talk.

How should we evaluate him, then? *I'm trying, Firsttimer.

 

[DewsSox79]

I only learned two days ago. :shrug:

Everyone made a big deal out of you saying that he could fail, and they even said he could, LOL.

thats good! congrats my man!

 

[DewsSox79]

You are one to talk.

How should we evaluate him, then? *I'm trying, Firsttimer.

Finally you have someone on your side, all be it someone who cannot read.

For the last time, and hopefully you guys understand. I will break it down for the dummies.

You can try to project a player by minor league stats and 1 year of major league stats. A projection is a projection, it is what it is, it IS NOT concrete.

again, To state that Castro WILL BE GREAT because of his minor league stats, and 1 year sample size in the majors is stupid.

The whole point is the fans stating that FOR SURE he will be great based on his minor league stats and 1 year in the majors.

This isnt hard firstimer, and CO.

 

[Captain Obvious]

Right, because he will repeat that performance. Im glad you can predict stats after 1 year of a player in the MLB. Like I said, Can i get the winning big game numbers?

See, notice here you said that YOU said repeat that performance. There has been no talk of whether or not he will be great, except you accusing me of saying that he will be. That was not even the discussion. It was whether or not he would repeat the performance he put up last year.

Where exactly did I say that he would be great? I said that he could easily be a top 3 SS(in terms of OPS). That's not exactly saying a lot, considering that he had a .755 OPS(about 30 points higher than the MLB average) and was the 4th best. While there is about a 55 point differential there, he is just 20. I think he definitely could be a great SS and relatively soon, too. However, I have never said that he can't fizzle out, but I never said he would be great, either. Especially considering that SS is the weakest hitting position.

While Castro could fail, it's ridiculous to think he will. *This is not saying he will be great. This is saying that it's ridiculous to think he will fail. You have used nothing to back up that point at all.

See bold.

learn to read.

Right, because I am the one who put words into people's mouths(posts?).

Finally you have someone on your side, all be it someone who cannot read.

For the last time, and hopefully you guys understand. I will break it down for the dummies.

You can try to project a player by minor league stats and 1 year of major league stats. A projection is a projection, it is what it is, it IS NOT concrete.

again, To state that Castro WILL BE GREAT because of his minor league stats, and 1 year sample size in the majors is stupid.

The whole point is the fans stating that FOR SURE he will be great based on his minor league stats and 1 year in the majors.

This isnt hard firstimer, and CO.

To state that Castro WILL BE GREAT is something that has yet to be stated here. I agree, it is stupid. But to say he will repeat what he did last year isn't stupid at all.

This isn't hard Dewey.