Alfonso Soriano's Endless Contract

[Captain Obvious]

CO, just shut the **** up, really.

I know normally you're the one to call someone a fucking Special person or tell them to shut the **** up, but your perception of Dews is fucking idiotic.

And LOL @ critiquing how he acts, look in the mirror bro.

You try to use that smiley sometimes too... but you do :rollseye: which doesn't work... it is : rolleyes :, just an FYI.

I use stats to base my arguments. He calls me an idiot for them. That's all he does. http://www.chicitysports.com/forum/search.php?searchid=158141 There are all his posts in this thread. Not one of them has any substance to it at all. You don't have to go along with what I think, but don't call me an idiot and then have nothing to back it up with.

Wheres the love?

There is no Guy Love here.

Are you saying Soriano has better speed than those two, because I agree there. However, now that Soriano has lost his speed, he has relied on his instincts in running around the bases, which makes him below average.



Oh the irony :lmao: :lmao: :lmao:

I'm saying that Soriano has better base running ability than both. He really hasn't been bad at all. Actually, 2007 was his worst year base running with the team. He was worth -2 runs. Since then he was been worth around 7.5 runs.

Not at all. If you don't believe me, look for yourself.

Baseball Prospectus | Statistics | Custom Statistics Reports: Runner Team Year

 

[CODE_BLUE56]

There is no Guy Love here

copier

 

[EnjoyYourTiger]

Yeah, I have absolutely no idea what any of those numbers mean, but I'm pretty sure stats aside, you would be the only person to think that Soriano is a better base runner than Kouske or Byrd.

 

[Rice Cube]

Yeah, I have absolutely no idea what any of those numbers mean, but I'm pretty sure stats aside, you would be the only person to think that Soriano is a better base runner than Kouske or Byrd.

In the extreme technical sense of the word, Captain Obvious is correct in that Soriano has a better EqBRR than either Fukudome or Byrd. However, you notice that Soriano hasn't had as many opportunities to run himself into outs yet, and being that we've only gotten through 2.5 months, the sample size is rather restricted to be drawing such a broad conclusion as "Soriano is a better baserunner than Fukudome or Byrd." A lot of it also has to do with caught-stealings on missed signs, which is not something that can easily be quantified because that's a coach fail and less of a player fail even though it still ends up as a TOOTBLAN.

What Captain Obvious is doing is akin to saying that Jeff Baker and Reed Johnson are better hitters than Starlin Castro because their batting averages are insane, despite the fact that neither has even half as many plate appearances as Castro so far. It's good to use statistics, but you have to know also when they become reliable and when they're nothing but statistical noise.

 

[CODE_BLUE56]

In the extreme technical sense of the word, Captain Obvious is correct in that Soriano has a better EqBRR than either Fukudome or Byrd. However, you notice that Soriano hasn't had as many opportunities to run himself into outs yet, and being that we've only gotten through 2.5 months, the sample size is rather restricted to be drawing such a broad conclusion as "Soriano is a better baserunner than Fukudome or Byrd." A lot of it also has to do with caught-stealings on missed signs, which is not something that can easily be quantified because that's a coach fail and less of a player fail even though it still ends up as a TOOTBLAN.

What Captain Obvious is doing is akin to saying that Jeff Baker and Reed Johnson are better hitters than Starlin Castro because their batting averages are insane, despite the fact that neither has even half as many plate appearances as Castro so far. It's good to use statistics, but you have to know also when they become reliable and when they're nothing but statistical noise.

right..as the sample size increases..we can except soriano and other's numbers to level out closer to what we'd expect...and in soriano's case...i dont think the statistics will be on CO's side in this argument come august or september

 

[Captain Obvious]

In the extreme technical sense of the word, Captain Obvious is correct in that Soriano has a better EqBRR than either Fukudome or Byrd. However, you notice that Soriano hasn't had as many opportunities to run himself into outs yet, and being that we've only gotten through 2.5 months, the sample size is rather restricted to be drawing such a broad conclusion as "Soriano is a better baserunner than Fukudome or Byrd." A lot of it also has to do with caught-stealings on missed signs, which is not something that can easily be quantified because that's a coach fail and less of a player fail even though it still ends up as a TOOTBLAN.

What Captain Obvious is doing is akin to saying that Jeff Baker and Reed Johnson are better hitters than Starlin Castro because their batting averages are insane, despite the fact that neither has even half as many plate appearances as Castro so far. It's good to use statistics, but you have to know also when they become reliable and when they're nothing but statistical noise.

I see what you're saying, but let's take a look at a larger sample size. Let's say the last 3 years.

This year:

Soriano 0.9
Fukudome -1.4
Byrd -0.7

2010:

Soriano 1.8 (95 chances)
Byrd -4.2 (161 chances)
Fukudome -0.1 (131 chances)

2009:

Soriano -0.3 (102)
Byrd -5.9 (123)
Fukudome 0.2 (170)

As you can see, Soriano overall really is a better base runner. He does have less chances, but I think a lot of that is just the type of hitter that he is(low OBP high SLG).

 

[Captain Obvious]

right..as the sample size increases..we can except soriano and other's numbers to level out closer to what we'd expect...and in soriano's case...i dont think the statistics will be on CO's side in this argument come august or september

I don't see any reason to think that Soriano will be much different than where he is now. What you are saying is that you think that it will regress to the mean, which is right about where he is at right now.

 

[Rice Cube]

I see what you're saying, but let's take a look at a larger sample size. Let's say the last 3 years.

This year:

Soriano 0.9
Fukudome -1.4
Byrd -0.7

2010:

Soriano 1.8 (95 chances)
Byrd -4.2 (161 chances)
Fukudome -0.1 (131 chances)

2009:

Soriano -0.3 (102)
Byrd -5.9 (123)
Fukudome 0.2 (170)

As you can see, Soriano overall really is a better base runner. He does have less chances, but I think a lot of that is just the type of hitter that he is(low OBP high SLG).

That's probably fine, and maybe you can do this since you have the statistics, but how did Soriano, Byrd and Fukudome do in 2008? How did Soriano do pre-2008 as well? Because in a vacuum, the numbers definitely bear out that Soriano is better by the EqBRR metric than the others, but there are a couple caveats other than low OBP/high SLG. One is that towards the middle of 2009, Lou Piniella switched Soriano from leadoff to batting sixth. The other is the kinds of hitters behind Soriano once he IS hitting sixth. Also important is realizing that, as discussed earlier in this thread, Soriano is losing his speed, which means less stolen base attempts. If the ball can't be put in play because Tyler Colvin or Koyie Hill or Tony Campana suck, Soriano cannot advance on the ground. If there are slow dudes in front of Soriano, he cannot advance on the basepaths more than a base at a time. All these things matter.

I agree with you that EqBRR is important to consider and it does bear out that Soriano isn't terrible as a baserunner, but you have to consider the context as well. I don't think you have.

My point being that Soriano is not a better baserunner; he simply runs into less outs because he doesn't have as many opportunities to advance these days based on his teammates and his new batting position.

 

[Rice Cube]

I actually think Soriano had a pretty good baserunning rating as a Yankee/Ranger, but that was when he was younger and way faster, so he got a boost from his SB numbers. Like all Cubs though, he's prone to the TOOTBLAN

 

[daddies3angels]

How do we keep getting into these arguments about Soriano? first his DEF and now his baserunning.

 

[Jntg4]

How do we keep getting into these arguments about Soriano? first his DEF and now his baserunning.

I want the user Alfonso Soriano to come into this thread.

 

[nwfisch]

How do we keep getting into these arguments about Soriano? first his DEF and now his baserunning.

First it started with Soriano being a top 10 player in 07. CO got owned there, so then he said he was top 15. Then Soriano is better then Dunn because of his defense. And the CO says something about Soriano being an above average at LF. And now CO says Soriano is a better baserunner than Fukudome and Byrd.

There saved you 240 posts.

 

[Rice Cube]

Well here's the deal folks...Soriano's remaining contract is way too hefty to just eat. He still provides some value with his bat (as evidenced today) and I actually think because he is low-OBP/high-SLG that he'd be better used as the #3 hitter than anybody else. His defense is atrocious but as long as Pena is there or they decide to sign Prince Fielder, he will be stuck in LF until some very forward-thinking GM (probably not Hendry) says, "You know what? Go to first base and give it a shot."

Given the state of this team and my opinion (based partly on stats and partly on gut) that this team can't contend with or without Fielder unless the Ricketts break the bank this offseason, I don't think it's a bad idea to throw him at first base after they trade Pena and hope for the best.

I do like Alfonso Soriano and believe that his bat was one of the biggest reasons why the Cubs went to the playoffs in 2007 and 2008. He also kept the team afloat in 2009 before he got injured. Those accomplishments should not be discounted no matter how much you think he sucks.

Another thing: let's say you have a choice as to whether you want to pay up the rest of the $72MM or whatever remaining of his contract. Maybe it's only $54MM after this year, I forget. Despite it being a sunk cost (guaranteed contract and all), do you really want to just eat that contract amount when he still has SOME value left? Nobody's going to trade for him unless they're as stupid as the LA Angels in eating Vernon Wells' contract. So what would you do if it was your money?

 

[EnjoyYourTiger]

Alright, well I guess that makes sense then as far as the stats and numbers go.

But just from watching this team, I know I've facepalmed far more often with Soriano than with any other baserunner.

 

[Captain Obvious]

That's probably fine, and maybe you can do this since you have the statistics, but how did Soriano, Byrd and Fukudome do in 2008? How did Soriano do pre-2008 as well? Because in a vacuum, the numbers definitely bear out that Soriano is better by the EqBRR metric than the others, but there are a couple caveats other than low OBP/high SLG. One is that towards the middle of 2009, Lou Piniella switched Soriano from leadoff to batting sixth. The other is the kinds of hitters behind Soriano once he IS hitting sixth. Also important is realizing that, as discussed earlier in this thread, Soriano is losing his speed, which means less stolen base attempts. If the ball can't be put in play because Tyler Colvin or Koyie Hill or Tony Campana suck, Soriano cannot advance on the ground. If there are slow dudes in front of Soriano, he cannot advance on the basepaths more than a base at a time. All these things matter.

I agree with you that EqBRR is important to consider and it does bear out that Soriano isn't terrible as a baserunner, but you have to consider the context as well. I don't think you have.

My point being that Soriano is not a better baserunner; he simply runs into less outs because he doesn't have as many opportunities to advance these days based on his teammates and his new batting position.

In 08, Soriano was worth 5 runs, Fukudome 2.7, and Byrd -2.9. Soriano had more chances than the other two. In 07, Soriano was -1.9 in 159, while Byrd was 3.6 in 112. In 06, when both were on the Nationals, Soriano was worth 4.1 in 212, while Byrd 0.8 in 78. Even when Soriano get more chances, he is still a plus runner.

Even when he wasn't in this position, he was still a better runner. I will stand by my point that Soriano is a better runner. While I think that you are right and batting position does have to do with it, it's not enough to make up the differential that is there between Soriano and Byrd and Soriano and Fukudome. Soriano is 6 runs better than Fukudome since 08 and about 2 wins more than Byrd since 06.

 

[CODE_BLUE56]

^right(@ rice cube...my post took a while to type lol)...
the thing is..when the cubs got soriano he was coming off some very good seasons overall with the nationals,and before that the yankees and rangers

but now he's deteriorating with age...and he's gone from an asset to a liability...

he's still a great HR/RBI/SLG guy but he has lost a step since coming to the cubs(maybe even before) and his defense has suffered(and it's not like his defense was great before that)...

i'm wondering if the cubs front office and personnel foresaw soriano's efficiency declining as he got into his mid 30s...however i cant argue with signing a high profile guy like him or atleast thats what he was at that point(remember ricketts wasnt the owner when soriano was signed)

 

[Captain Obvious]

First it started with Soriano being a top 10 player in 07. CO got owned there, so then he said he was top 15. Then Soriano is better then Dunn because of his defense. And the CO says something about Soriano being an above average at LF. And now CO says Soriano is a better baserunner than Fukudome and Byrd.

There saved you 240 posts.

One can very easily say that Soriano was a top 10 player. He definitely was a top 15 player. Soriano was better than Dunn. Soriano is an above average LFer. Soriano is a better baserunner than Fukudome and Byrd.

Do I need to show you this again? Jeez.

 

[Captain Obvious]

^right(@ rice cube...my post took a while to type lol)...
the thing is..when the cubs got soriano he was coming off some very good seasons overall with the nationals,and before that the yankees and rangers

but now he's deteriorating with age...and he's gone from an asset to a liability...

he's still a great HR/RBI/SLG guy but he has lost a step since coming to the cubs(maybe even before) and his defense has suffered(and it's not like his defense was great before that)...

i'm wondering if the cubs front office and personnel foresaw soriano's efficiency declining as he got into his mid 30s...however i cant argue with signing a high profile guy like him or atleast thats what he was at that point(remember ricketts wasnt the owner when soriano was signed)

That's just it. He isn't a liability at all. In fact, he is still a good player. Not an 18MM player, but a good player. He still hits well above league average, plays above average defense for a LFer, and is a positive with his legs. That's an asset forsure.

 

[CODE_BLUE56]

That's just it. He isn't a liability at all. In fact, he is still a good player. Not an 18MM player, but a good player. He still hits well above league average, plays above average defense for a LFer, and is a positive with his legs. That's an asset forsure.

he's a liability because he has gotten older and is not nearly the athlete he used to be...and therefore his defense has suffered greatly(sure his defense was ok in 07...but nothing spectacular and since then it has gone downhill.. partly the reason he is in the left field now is because his defense isnt good enough anymore to play in the infield....he is doing well running on bases because he has had less opportunities than others and because of his relative position in the batting order....not to mention he is now getting consistently hit by the injury bug

but mainly he's a liability because he's not producing overall according to his contract which in itself is a liability now

maybe liability was,eh, a wee bit harsh in describing sori..i mean soriano is still a decent player....for a lower price he's a great deal because he is a great slugger even after he has lost a step...

but again he is not nearly worth his contract now

then again, when you're signing a big time player like soriano when he was still in his prime, you have to be able to commit a large sum of money for a long period of time...and i mean...at the time he was still doing very well

as i said in a earlier post, i wonder if the cubs front office/personnel really foresaw soriano losing a step and regressing with age(probably, but i guess its hard to plan for that when the player is still in his prime when you sign him)

 

[Rick]

Are you Joe Morgan?

Nope