All Spring Training IGT

[brett05]

Ah, that's the trick isn't it? You have to build a staff for the 162 but you don't win a WS without either a great staff or something weird that offsets that a-la the Royals. This why Lackey was a great signing because they now have 3 pitchers that can win playoff games. I'm a velocity guy in I'm enamored with young power arms but injury comes with that. Still I'll take my chances with those kind of guys. That's why Dylan Cease is so intriguing. I'll agree though that this team will win a lot of games if Hendricks and Hammel perform. If they face the Mets again in the playoffs though it might kill me.

Those two could be abysmal and the team is going to win a lot of games.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Those two could be abysmal and the team is going to win a lot of games.

I'm a pitching worrier so you're probably right but I'll feel a lot better if they perform.

 

[brett05]

I'm a pitching worrier so you're probably right but I'll feel a lot better if they perform.

From a guy that loves, loves, loves pitching, I can understand your position even if I don't agree. :hi5:

 

[CSF77]

If Lackey plays at last year's level and Lester can put up one of his normal years the staff should be one of the best in the league. Hammel has been a first half pitcher. We get anything more then good for him. Hendricks IMO should end up a solid #4 and end up pushing 200 innings.

The biggest issue these 2 gave last year was getting past the 5th. Which means when the hitters came up to face them the 3rd time Maddon didn't trust them anymore.

 

[beckdawg]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/03/shane-victorino-wont-make-cubs-roster-mulling-rehab-offer.html

 

[beckdawg]

Heyward just threw a guy out at home..... twas beautiful.

 

[beckdawg]

Candelario took Bumgarner yard.

 

[beckdawg]

13-11 in the top 5th..... just like everyone figured in a game started by bumgarner and arrieta.

 

[chibears55]

Can't wait for the season to start, these guys are gonna be putting up some crazy offensive numbers .
Wouldn't surprise me to see a couple 20 runs games this year

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[beckdawg]

That Almora rope into the LF/CF gap looked nice

 

[beckdawg]

Almora looks pretty good to me tonight.

 

[SilenceS]

Almora looks pretty good to me tonight.

Got to walk. He isn't Castro and can get away with crazy eye to hand coordination. He does have good bat to ball skills but he has to walk to be valuable as a starter. If not, he is going to make a living being a glove man as a 4th OF.

 

[beckdawg]

Got to walk. He isn't Castro and can get away with crazy eye to hand coordination. He does have good bat to ball skills but he has to walk to be valuable as a starter. If not, he is going to make a living being a glove man as a 4th OF.

Eh... maybe. From what i've read about what the cubs are trying to do it's less to do with walking albeit a nice side effect. It's more about "getting your pitch to hit." As it pertains to Almora's future, his defense alone is probably enough to make him a legit starter as at least a 2nd tier set of teams. I mean that's essentially all you get out of Billy Hamilton who's been in CF for the reds for some time now. But aside from that, there's more than a few players in the league who are putting the ball in play as much as almora. At his worst he was at around 3% walk rate over 200 PAs. And he's typically been about an 11% k rate so add those two up and you're at roughly 14%. There were 20 players in the majors last season with an 86% or higher contact rate. They were Michael Brantley, Daniel Murphy, Nick Markakis, Ben Revere, Jose Altuve, Ender Inciarte, Angel Pagan, Andrelton Simmons, Martin Prado, Ian Kinsler, Ben Zobrist, Buster Posey, Yangervis Solarte, Melky Cabrera, Dee Gordon, Erick Aybar, Wilmer Flores, Mookie Betts, Brock Holt, and Elvis Andrus. Of those murphy, revere, altuve, inciarte, pagan, Cabrera, Gordon, Aybar and Flores had lower than a 6% walk rate.

His ability to walk more like the 7.1% he had at AA to me is the difference between him being a second tier starter and a potential all-star. In particular, Flores might not be a bad comp for his low end. He's a .253/.287/.386 thus far at SS but last year he was still worth a roughly league average 1.9 fWAR over 137 games. He walked 3.7% and k'd 12.4%. Admittedly, if that's all Almora is it's a bit of a disappointment for a top 10 pick but that at cheap rookie rates is going to matter especially when you have to start paying some of the guys like Russell and Bryant.

Regardless, like I said I like what I saw tonight.

 

[SilenceS]

He doesn't steal bases, his power is nothing to write home about, his glove is plus, and he has shown a lower walk rate in the minors than Castro at an older age. Im not knocking him. I didn't like the pick because I believed he was an over achiever. This was one of the Cubs "make up" guys. I do think Theo and them will give him every opportunity to make it cause it was their first pick as a Cub. I have watched him a decent amount for being a minor leaguer and I don't see adjustments with him. You are correct about the right pitch, but he makes Baez look passive.

 

[beckdawg]

He doesn't steal bases, his power is nothing to write home about, his glove is plus, and he has shown a lower walk rate in the minors than Castro at an older age. Im not knocking him. I didn't like the pick because I believed he was an over achiever. This was one of the Cubs "make up" guys. I do think Theo and them will give him every opportunity to make it cause it was their first pick as a Cub. I have watched him a decent amount for being a minor leaguer and I don't see adjustments with him. You are correct about the right pitch, but he makes Baez look passive.

He has ok SB threat. I mean give him a full healthy season and you're probably looking at 10-15. And power is a bit deceiving a term. Like I get what you're saying. He's probably also a 10-15 HR hitter but one of the things I particularly liked tonight was the the shot he hit to the gap was nice. He's probably more of a doubles hitter than a HR hitter but I wouldn't say he's totally lacking power. I feel like that's often a common thing that gets left out when talking about prospects. For example, I'd say Russell has more HR potential than Almora but he too hits a lot of doubles which is nice to have. Heyward like wise hasn't put up a ton of HRs the past couple of years but has hit a bunch of doubles.

As for the bb/k rate thing, the way I tend to look at it is obviously from more of a statistical standpoint as I've said before. To me, I don't care as much if you K more than average if you also walk above average. And I don't necessarily care if you walk little as long as you K little. For me it's more about limiting your bad outcomes. For most people not named Kris Bryant, you're fairly limited by BABIP. On average players tend to be around .300 and good players can get up to the .330-.340 range but ultimately there's a bit of a cap on how high you go there on balls in play. So, generally that's the obvious reason you want to K less and walk more because the balls in play you don't really have as much control over. You're a smart guy and I'm obviously not telling you anything you don't realize there. However, one way you can impact balls in play is just to put more of them out there.

I'll give an example here to put it in a bit more concrete terms here. An average batter last year hit .254/.317/.405 with a 7.7% bb rate and a 20.4% k rate. That's pretty close to what Evan Longoria put up(7.6%/19.7% and .270/.328/.435). Longoria ended up with 163 hits, 51 walks and 132 Ks. Also his BABIP was .309. So, you're basically talking about 214 positive outcomes and 132(plus 309 outs in play) negative out comes. If for example Longoria walked at a 4% clip instead, in his 670 PAs he would instead have roughly 27 walks. So, to come out even he'd have to turn 24 K's into hits. Only way to do that is reduce his k rate from 19.7% to 16.1%. And if he does that despite walking less he's effectively the same player. Some might argue he's better by putting more balls in play(ie the contact rate argument). Some might argue walking more means he's probably getting his pitch more. But from a stats standpoint he's basically the same player despite walking less. Edit: I just read this back and realize I messed up the numbers a bit. His K rate would need to be a bit lower than that because I forgot to factor in the babip when removing K's but regardless you can see where I'm going here with this.

And that's kind of where I'm at with Almora. I think when i did my initial thing on here about who prospects compared to like 2 years ago I compared Almora's likely top end to something like Coco Crisp with less speed. And honestly, that's still probably not a bad comp. Crisp was never really a star but he's also played in 1464 games and had 6129 PAs. Ultimately, I think Almora's range is something like 1-3 fWAR/year. Hamilton who I mentioned earlier has a career .242/.287/.330 triple slash and over 279 games/1087 PAs has been worth 6.1 fWAR. That basically is equating to 3 fWAR over 2 seasons. And while Hamilton undoubtedly has more speed, he doesn't have more power and I have a tough time believing Almora hits worse or plays worse defense. Hamilton's baserunning has been worth roughly 2.4 of that fWAR so maybe you call Almora more of a 2ish fWAR player but he's likely to still above average baserunning himself either way. So, like I've said I'm like 95% sure he's going to be a starter. Maybe not an ideal starter for a championship caliber team but the Mets went to the world series playing Juan Lagares in CF for 143 games last year. He's basically what we're talking about and possibly worse with his higher k rate.

 

[CSF77]

All I have to say is if they went for Appel that year then the Stroes most likely take Bryant #1 and we are stuck with a 2 year run of bad luck on top picks.

I do not 2nd guess Theo anymore on that stuff. The only guy that was out there that was better at that pick they got on a robbery from the A's.

 

[chibears55]

Clayton Richards sucks
Bye Clayton Richards



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[A.C. Milan]

at least it happened at a spring game.. i hope this will teach us a lesson, it ain't over until the last out is recorded

 

[Diehardfan]

Clayton Richards sucks
Bye Clayton Richards



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I've been saying that all the way back to last year when he was surprisingly somewhat successful. He's a guy that comes in and you're shocked when he doesn't get scored on....that pretty much says it all about him. Just being left handed isn't good enough for this team anymore. You need to get people out.

 

[CSF77]

Didn't see the game. But that it is spring training and in Azl where you are talking about dry conditions that caused a blister on Arrieta.

Like I said too many factors going on to just write him off. I don't see him more than a mop up guy all said and done but if it came down to Ramirez who is out of options or Richard you go with Ramirez.