I mean 2x the defender is a rather nebulous term. What does that even mean logically? If you're suggesting Simmons is better I'd likely agree with you. But at some point there's diminishing returns on how good someone is. The difference between say Russsell and an average SS makes a difference but the difference between Simmons and Russell is what? Maybe 10 more plays a season?
And fangraphs shows how the win total is formulated so you can specifically take off some defense if you want. Every 10 runs above replacement is a win. Simmons has 45.7 RAR. 7.7 of that RAR comes from offense(7.1 batting and 0.6 base running). 21.4 RAR comes from defense(16.1(his uzr) plus a 5.4 positional adjustment for SS). He then gets another 1.5 for league adjustment and a 15.2 replacement value.
DRS likes Russell a lot more than UZR does but his career UZR/150 is 7.5. In other words, the difference between them would be roughly 0.75 wins. Simmons is going to put up a 5 win season. And I mean for fuck sake how can you say Russell is a 2 win player when he already had a 3.3 win season at age 22? If we're being conservative and assume typical growth as players age into their prime I'd easily suggest 4 wins should be his prime range and that's assuming he's not any better than he's already been. If he's the hitter he was in June he's a 5 or 6 win player.
Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) is a defensive statistic calculated by The Fielding Bible, an organization run by John Dewan, that rates individual players as above or below average on defense. Much like UZR, players are measured in “runs” above or below average, and Baseball Info Solutions data is used as an input. Since DRS is measured in runs, it can be compared easily with a player’s offensive contributions (wRAA or similar statistics).
Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) is one of the most widely used, publicly available defensive statistics. UZR puts a run value to defense, attempting to quantify how many runs a player saved or gave up through their fielding prowess (or lack thereof). There are a couple different components to UZR, including:
● Outfield Arm Runs (ARM) – The amount of runs above average an outfielder saves with their arm by preventing runners from advancing.
● Double-Play Runs (DPR) – The amount of runs above average an infielder is by turning double-plays.
● Range Runs (RngR) – Is the player an Ozzie Smith or an Adam Dunn? Do they get to more balls than average or not?
● Error Runs (ErrR) – Does the player commit more or fewer errors compared with a league-average player at their position?
Nice tools and does bring the D part of the equation to light.
Now sequencing or Cherie picking 1 month is weak. The game is 6 months. Every player is good enough to get one. Look at Bote. Got hot and now got cold.
Did he factor in June: Team was 15-12. Maybe not as much as you think.
Did Murphy flawed and all factor in Aug?: 18-10 with the team 8-2 with him on board. 10-8 with Russell. Feels pretty June pre Murphy honestly. Playing good enough to win.
Now that is the key here. Russell is a stability player. Even at 100% he is still a stability factor. Almora is that at the plate but he has more Baez to him minus the 30 HR power.
If Russell was a .280 hitter with 15 HR's with his D at SS Murphy would be a downgrade. But Russell sitting at .245 on a good year? I really can't believe this argument is even happening honestly.
Sorry the Cubs can't afford to have D first players absorbing AB's from higher yielding hitters.